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17 December 2025

Assessing Catastrophic Historical Floods in a Small Stream: The Case of Tripero River (Villafranca de los Barros, Spain)

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1
Departamento de Física, Universidad de Extremadura, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
2
Instituto Universitario de Investigación del Agua, Cambio Climático y Sostenibilidad (IACYS), Universidad de Extremadura, 06006 Badajoz, Spain
3
Departamento de Didáctica de las Ciencias Experimentales y las Matemáticas, Universidad de Extremadura, 10003 Cáceres, Spain
4
Center for Sci-Tech Research in Earth System and Energy (CREATE), Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada (IIFA), Universidade de Évora, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal
This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Air-Sea Interactions, Climate Variability, and Predictability (2nd Edition)

Abstract

This study investigates five catastrophic historical floods of the Tripero stream, a small tributary of the Guadiana River that flows through Villafranca de los Barros (Extremadura, Spain), occurring between 1865 and 1952. Despite their devastating impacts on the local population and infrastructure, these events have received little scientific attention. By combining historical documentary evidence with meteorological reanalysis data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRv3), this research reconstructs the circumstances and atmospheric mechanisms associated with each event. The results reveal a notable diversity of synoptic configurations, reflecting both seasonal variability and the distinct meteorological origins of the floods. The 1865 and 1876 events were associated with large-scale Atlantic disturbances—the former linked to a cut-off low and moisture transport resembling an atmospheric river, and the latter to a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase and other atmospheric river, producing widespread flooding across southwestern Iberia. In contrast, the floods of 1903, 1949, and 1952 were triggered by intense convective activity, typical of late spring and summer thunderstorms, fueled by local moisture and instability. The combination of historical sources and modern reanalysis provides valuable insights into the climatological context of extreme hydrometeorological events in small Mediterranean basins, contributing to improved understanding of local flood risks in historically understudied regions.

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