Statistical Analysing Climate Variability and Change for Hydrological Applications

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2022) | Viewed by 13830

Special Issue Editor

CSIRO Land and Water, Water for Regional Development, Wembley, Australia
Interests: climate change impacts; hydrology and water resources; GIS; surface hydrology
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The aim of this special issue is to explore statistical analysis of the climate variability and changes for hydrological applications. It includes, but is not limited to:

  • Limitations of current statistical applications, givens that it is almost impossible to perform independent experiments in hydroclimate studies and almost all hydroclimate data are somehow interrelated spatially and temporally. The comparison of multiple models is also included.
  • New and advanced statistical methods for climate change and variability analysis and their hydrological implications.
  • Statistical analysis of uncertainties of hydroclimate systems.
  • Climate variable selections for hydrological applications.
  • Non-stationary rainfall-runoff relationship due to climate change and variability.
  • Distinguishing the impacts of climate variability and changes and human activities on regional and global hydrological regimes.
  • Statistical analysis of climate and hydrological extremes. New indices or early warning of these extremes are also welcome.
  • Weather and hydrological forecasting and their applications with statistical techniques.

Prof. Dr. Guobin Fu
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • climate change impacts
  • hydrological applications
  • hydrological extremes
  • statistical analysis
  • surface hydrology
  • hydrology and water resources

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 6876 KiB  
Article
Trends in Groundwater Levels in Alluvial Aquifers of the Murray–Darling Basin and Their Attributions
by Guobin Fu, Rodrigo Rojas and Dennis Gonzalez
Water 2022, 14(11), 1808; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14111808 - 4 Jun 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3631
Abstract
Groundwater levels represent the aggregation of different hydrological processes acting at multiple spatial and temporal scales within aquifer systems. Analyzing trends in groundwater levels is therefore essential to quantify available groundwater resources for beneficial use, and to devise plans/policies to better manage these [...] Read more.
Groundwater levels represent the aggregation of different hydrological processes acting at multiple spatial and temporal scales within aquifer systems. Analyzing trends in groundwater levels is therefore essential to quantify available groundwater resources for beneficial use, and to devise plans/policies to better manage these resources. In this work, three trend analysis methods are employed to detect long-term (1971–2021) trends in annual mean/minimum/maximum depth to water table (DTW) at 910 bores. This analysis is performed in eight main alluvial systems in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia, which concentrate nearly 75% of groundwater use. The results show: (a) an overall increasing trend in DTW across alluvial aquifers attributable to changes in recharge from rainfall and groundwater extraction; (b) the analysis methods employed show similar statistical significances and magnitudes, but differences exist; (c) the annual minimum DTW has a smaller trend magnitude than annual mean DTW, and the annual maximum DTW has a larger trend magnitude than mean DTW; (d) trends in annual rainfall and potential evaporation, and cumulative number of production bores, are consistent with the groundwater trends; (e) irrigation is responsible for some of the decreasing trend in groundwater level. These results could be used to target further research and monitoring programs, and inform groundwater resource management decisions in the MDB. Full article
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21 pages, 4157 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Analysis on the Teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the Stream Flow Regimes in Java, Indonesia
by Adam Rus Nugroho, Ichiro Tamagawa and Morihiro Harada
Water 2022, 14(2), 168; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020168 - 8 Jan 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2037
Abstract
While many studies on the relationship between climate modes and rainfall in Indonesia already exist, studies targeting climate modes’ relationship to streamflow remain rare. This study applied multiple regression (MR) models with polynomial functions to show the teleconnection from the two prominent climate [...] Read more.
While many studies on the relationship between climate modes and rainfall in Indonesia already exist, studies targeting climate modes’ relationship to streamflow remain rare. This study applied multiple regression (MR) models with polynomial functions to show the teleconnection from the two prominent climate modes—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—to streamflow regimes in eight rivers in Java, Indonesia. Our MR models using data from 1970 to 2018 successfully show that the September–November (SON) season provides the best predictability of the streamflow regimes. It is also found that the predictability in 1970–1989 was better than that in 1999–2018. This suggests that the relationships between the climate modes and streamflow in Java were changed over periods, which is suspected due to the river basin development. Hence, we found no clear spatial distribution patterns of the predictability, suggesting that the effect of ENSO and IOD are similar for the eight rivers. Additionally, the predictability of the high flow index has been found higher than the low flow index. Having elucidated the flow regimes’ predictability by spatiotemporal analysis, this study gives new insight into the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the Indonesian streamflow. Full article
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31 pages, 11774 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Changes in Groundwater Level under Climate Changes in the Gnangara Region, Western Australia
by Feihe Kong, Wenjin Xu, Ruichen Mao and Dong Liang
Water 2022, 14(2), 162; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020162 - 8 Jan 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2809
Abstract
The groundwater-dependent ecosystem in the Gnangara region is confronted with great threats due to the decline in groundwater level since the 1970s. The aim of this study is to apply multiple trend analysis methods at 351 monitoring bores to detect the trends in [...] Read more.
The groundwater-dependent ecosystem in the Gnangara region is confronted with great threats due to the decline in groundwater level since the 1970s. The aim of this study is to apply multiple trend analysis methods at 351 monitoring bores to detect the trends in groundwater level using spatial, temporal and Hydrograph Analysis: Rainfall and Time Trend models, which were applied to evaluate the impacts of rainfall on the groundwater level in the Gnangara region, Western Australia. In the period of 1977–2017, the groundwater level decreased from the Gnangara’s edge to the central-north area, with a maximum trend magnitude of −0.28 m/year. The groundwater level in 1998–2017 exhibited an increasing trend in December–March and a decreasing trend in April–November with the exception of September when compared to 1978–1997. The rainfall + time model based on the cumulative annual residual rainfall technique with a one-month lag during 1990–2017 was determined as the best model. Rainfall had great impacts on the groundwater level in central Gnangara, with the highest impact coefficient being 0.00473, and the impacts reduced gradually from the central area to the boundary region. Other factors such as pine plantation, the topography and landforms, the Tamala Limestone formation, and aquifer groundwater abstraction also had important influences on the groundwater level. Full article
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41 pages, 10449 KiB  
Article
Multi-Criteria Analysis of the “Lake Baikal—Irkutsk Reservoir” Operating Modes in a Changing Climate: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability
by Alexander Buber and Mikhail Bolgov
Water 2021, 13(20), 2879; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202879 - 14 Oct 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1967
Abstract
In the second half of the twentieth century, a cascade of reservoirs was constructed along the Angara: Irkutskoe, Bratskoe, Ust-Ilimskoe and Boguchanskoe, which were intended for producing renewable hydroelectric energy for providing transportation through the Angara and Yenisei Rivers, and for avoiding floods. [...] Read more.
In the second half of the twentieth century, a cascade of reservoirs was constructed along the Angara: Irkutskoe, Bratskoe, Ust-Ilimskoe and Boguchanskoe, which were intended for producing renewable hydroelectric energy for providing transportation through the Angara and Yenisei Rivers, and for avoiding floods. The upper reservoir (Irkutsk Dam) is used to regulate the level of Baikal Lake. The cascade of Angarsk reservoirs is managed using the dispatch schedules developed in 1988. This article contains a multi-criteria analysis of the “Lake Baikal–Irkutsk Reservoir” operating modes in a changing climate, based on statistical summaries of performance criteria: reliability, resilience, vulnerability. Studies have shown that dispatch schedules need to be developed on the historical series of recent years, updated more often and optimization methods should be used for real-time management. This article discusses mathematical methods, algorithms and their implementations for the formation of reservoir operation modes based on dispatch schedules (DS) and optimization methods. Furthermore, mathematical methods, algorithms and programs have been developed for the formation of reservoir operation modes in real time, based on optimization approaches and long-term series of observed inflows, taking into account a given hierarchy of priorities of water users’ requirements. To solve the integer nonlinear large-dimensional task of performing water resource calculations, a special optimization algorithm was developed that allows decomposition of the task into a series of two-year dimensional independent subtasks. Full article
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12 pages, 6825 KiB  
Article
Evolution of Storm Surges over the Little Ice Age Indicated by Aeolian Sand Records on the Coast of the Beibu Gulf, China
by Zhi Chen, Baosheng Li, Fengnian Wang, Shuhuan Du, Dongfeng Niu, Yinjun Zhao and Yuejun Si
Water 2021, 13(14), 1941; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13141941 - 14 Jul 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2424
Abstract
The Wutou section, hereinafter referred to as “WTS”, lies in Jiangping, Guangxi Province, China (21°32′8.25″ N, 108°06′59.9″ E; thickness of 246 cm) and consists of fluvial-lacustrine facies and dune sands of the Late Holocene. This study reconstructed the evolution of storm surges along [...] Read more.
The Wutou section, hereinafter referred to as “WTS”, lies in Jiangping, Guangxi Province, China (21°32′8.25″ N, 108°06′59.9″ E; thickness of 246 cm) and consists of fluvial-lacustrine facies and dune sands of the Late Holocene. This study reconstructed the evolution of storm surges along the coast of the Beibu Gulf, Guangxi over the Little Ice Age, based on three accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)-14C, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating ages, and the analyses of grain size and heavy minerals. The analysis results indicated that the storm sediments interspersed among aeolian sands, lagoon facies, and weak soil display a coarse mean grain size and poor sorting. The storm sediments also show high maturity of heavy minerals and low stability resulting from rapid accumulation due to storm surges originating from the land-facing side of the coastal dunes. Records of seven peak storm surge periods were recorded in the WTS over the past millennium and mainly occurred after 1400 AD, i.e., during the Little Ice Age. The peaks in storm surges, including the 14Paleostrom deposit (hereinafter referred to as “Pd”) (1425–1470AD), 10Pd (1655–1690AD), 6Pd (1790–1820AD), and 4Pd (1850–1885AD) approximately corresponded with the periods of minimum sunspot activity, suggesting that the periods of storm surge peaks revealed by the WTS were probably regulated to a great extent by solar activity. Full article
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