Hydrological Modelling and Extreme Event Analysis under Climate Change

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 May 2024) | Viewed by 7336

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
NC State University Research Scholar at NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, USA
Interests: climatic variability; global change; in situ observational network measurements; water balance studies; environmental changes in Northern Eurasia

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Ongoing climate change issues have led to changes in the global hydrological cycle and its regional manifestations. For societal activities and ecosystem dynamics, the state of the terrestrial water budget may be either favourable or unfavourable. However, when it is stable, human societies and ecosystems develop resilience and mitigate extreme outbreaks, such as floods and droughts. With climatic change, the business as usual becomes impossible, because the frequency and magnitude of extreme outbreaks change. Many Earth system components have already passed the thresholds that have existed in this past century. We can no longer rely on the empirical estimates of distributions of water cycle characteristics as they are rapidly changing. It has been frequently reported that “The old-timers cannot recall”. Thus, the scientific community faces two related and vitally important challenges:

  • to strengthen our ability to develop process-based hydrological models that can operate in a wide range of environmental conditions that include inadvertent and controlled anthropogenic components;
  • to develop tools to assess extreme events that emerge (or will emerge) under ongoing climate change, to anticipate future events, and to offer solutions that allow societies to mitigate detrimental consequences of projected changes and benefit from positive consequences of projected changes.

With this in mind, we invite you to contribute to the upcoming Special Issue in the open access Journal Water, entitled “Hydrological Modelling and Extreme Event Analysis under Climate Change”.

Dr. Pavel Groisman
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • modelling of the hydrological cycle
  • extreme events
  • droughts
  • floods
  • changes in seasonal cycle of the ecosystems’ dynamics
  • anthropogenic impact on the terrestrial water cycle
  • integrated earth system models

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 3146 KiB  
Article
On the Use of Weather Generators for the Estimation of Low-Frequency Floods under a Changing Climate
by Carles Beneyto, José Ángel Aranda and Félix Francés
Water 2024, 16(7), 1059; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071059 - 6 Apr 2024
Viewed by 900
Abstract
The present work presents a methodology based on the use of stochastic weather generators (WGs) for the estimation of high-return-period floods under climate change scenarios. Applying the proposed methodology in a case study, Rambla de la Viuda (Spain), satisfactory results were obtained through [...] Read more.
The present work presents a methodology based on the use of stochastic weather generators (WGs) for the estimation of high-return-period floods under climate change scenarios. Applying the proposed methodology in a case study, Rambla de la Viuda (Spain), satisfactory results were obtained through the regionalization of the bias-corrected EUROCORDEX climate projections and the integration of this information into the parameterization of the WG. The generated synthetic data series fed a fully distributed hydrological model to obtain the future flood quantiles. The results obtained show a clear increase in the precipitation extreme quantiles for the two analyzed projections. Although slightly reducing the annual amount of precipitation, variations between 4.3% for a return period of 5 years in the mid-term projection and 19.7% for a return period of 100 years in the long-term projection have been observed. In terms of temperatures, the results point to clear increases in the maximum and minimum temperatures for both projections (up to 3.6 °C), these increases being greater for the long-term projection, where the heat waves intensify significantly in both magnitude and frequency. Finally, although rivers may present, in general, with lower flows during the year, flood quantiles experience an increase of 53–58% for high return periods, which reach values of up to 145% when we move to smaller catchments. All this combined translates into substantial shifts in the river flow regimes, increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. Full article
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13 pages, 1784 KiB  
Article
Reconstructing Historical Intense and Total Summer Rainfall in Central North Carolina Using Tree-Ring Data (1770–2020)
by Tyler J. Mitchell and Paul A. Knapp
Water 2024, 16(4), 513; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16040513 - 6 Feb 2024
Viewed by 1557
Abstract
Contextualizing historic hydroclimate variability in the southeastern USA has relied significantly on proxy indicators such as tree-ring data, and while previous studies have reconstructed total precipitation, less is known about the historic variability of intense rainfall events, which are climatologically and ecologically important [...] Read more.
Contextualizing historic hydroclimate variability in the southeastern USA has relied significantly on proxy indicators such as tree-ring data, and while previous studies have reconstructed total precipitation, less is known about the historic variability of intense rainfall events, which are climatologically and ecologically important and distinct from non-intense rainfall events. Here, a combined longleaf pine and shortleaf pine adjusted latewood chronology spanning 1770–2020 was used to reconstruct July–September total precipitation and intense rainfall event precipitation in central North Carolina, USA. The adjusted latewood chronology explains 46% of the variance in July–September total precipitation and 37% of the variance in July–September intense rainfall event precipitation during the 1940–2020 instrumental period with intense rainfall event precipitation amounts comprising 52% of total precipitation amounts. The models provide context about historic hydroclimate variability at this location and suggest overall stability in both total and intense rainfall event precipitation amounts during the instrumental and reconstruction periods with three identical significant regime shifts during 1770–2020: 1770–1935, 1936–1959 (above-average moisture), 1960–2020 (below-average moisture). To compare model strength, the models were split into early (1940–1980) and late (1981–2020) analysis periods with the intense rainfall event precipitation model exhibiting greater skill during the early analysis period. The early analysis period has a greater frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events, and these results suggest the influence of intense rainfall event precipitation on latewood growth and the potential susceptibility of reconstruction models to decreased skill and/or error with differing frequencies of extreme events, a finding of particular importance to future dendroclimatic research. Full article
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17 pages, 5051 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Characteristics in 2022 and Projection of Extreme Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenarios
by Jang Hyun Sung, Dong Ho Kang, Young-Ho Seo and Byung Sik Kim
Water 2023, 15(22), 3986; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15223986 - 16 Nov 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1299
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Seoul in 2022 and compared them with the projections of the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The analysis results indicated that climate change is ongoing. In this era of [...] Read more.
In this study, we analyzed the characteristics of the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Seoul in 2022 and compared them with the projections of the representative concentration pathway (RCP). The analysis results indicated that climate change is ongoing. In this era of climate crisis, based on the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) data, we projected the 20-year frequency rainfall for South Korea at intervals of 1 day/24 h. Our results indicate that the maximum rainfall (with a 24 h duration) will increase by ~18% in the second half of the 21st century, compared to the current maximum rainfall. Finally, we projected the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curve for the infrastructure design of Seoul. According to the projected IDF curve, across all durations, the rainfall intensity was the strongest in the early 21st century, indicating that at present, we are in the midst of a climate crisis. Thus, it is important to develop and implement effective urban and river flood management measures to mitigate the current effects of climate change. Notably, our study can serve as a reference for future studies on climate change and help policymakers and decision-makers develop relevant policies and mitigation strategies related to the effects of climate change. Full article
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20 pages, 9570 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Huaihe River Basin Based on the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Dataset and Monitoring Data
by Min Tong, Leilei Li, Zhi Li and Zhihui Tian
Water 2023, 15(21), 3805; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213805 - 31 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1175
Abstract
This research analyzes extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin in China, a densely populated region with a history of human settlements and agricultural activities. This study aims to explore the impact of extreme precipitation index changes and provide decision-making suggestions for [...] Read more.
This research analyzes extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin in China, a densely populated region with a history of human settlements and agricultural activities. This study aims to explore the impact of extreme precipitation index changes and provide decision-making suggestions for flood early warning and agricultural development in the Huaihe River Basin. The study utilizes the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate model dataset and daily value dataset (V3.0) from China’s national surface weather stations to investigate temporal and spatial changes in the extreme precipitation indices from 1960 to 2014 and future projections. At the same time, this study adopts the RclimDex model, Taylor diagram, and Sen+Mann–Kendall trend analysis research methods to analyze the data. The results reveal a slight increase in extreme precipitation indices from the northwest to southeast within the basin, except for the CDD, which shows a decreasing trend. Regarding the spatial variation, the future increase in extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin shows a spatial variation characteristic that decreases from the northwest to southeast. These findings suggest that extreme precipitation events are intensifying in the region. Understanding these trends and their implications is vital for adaptation strategy planning and mitigating the risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin. Full article
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13 pages, 772 KiB  
Article
Extreme Low Flow during Long-Lasting Phases of River Runoff in the Central Part of the East European Plain
by Aleksandr G. Georgiadi and Pavel Y. Groisman
Water 2023, 15(12), 2146; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122146 - 6 Jun 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1844
Abstract
In the rivers of the central part of the East European Plain (the Volga at Staritsa, the Oka at Kaluga, and the Don at Stanitsa Kazanskaya), long phases (10–15 years or more) of increased/decreased annual and seasonal runoff have occurred, as well as [...] Read more.
In the rivers of the central part of the East European Plain (the Volga at Staritsa, the Oka at Kaluga, and the Don at Stanitsa Kazanskaya), long phases (10–15 years or more) of increased/decreased annual and seasonal runoff have occurred, as well as differences in the frequencies of extremely low flow conditions from the late 19th century to 2020. Phase boundaries were identified by cumulative deviation curves and statistical homogeneity. The frequencies of specific water flow values were estimated using the empirical curves of the exceedance probability of annual and seasonal water flows based on their long-term time series. In the century-long changes of rivers considered, two long contrasting phases were revealed. These phases are characterized by increased and decreased runoff of hydrological seasons. Near simultaneously, a phase of increased runoff was first observed for the freshet season. On the contrary, phases of decreased runoff were first observed for low-water seasons. The runoff phases differ significantly in duration and differences in flow. Significant differences were revealed in the frequency of low-water years for a low runoff with an exceedance probability above or equal to 75% and above or equal to 95%. Full article
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