System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation for Public Health

A special issue of Systems (ISSN 2079-8954).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 April 2025 | Viewed by 1658

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1. ISEE Systems, Inc., 31 Old Etna Road, Suite 7N, Lebanon, NH 03766, USA
2. Social Science and Policy Studies Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, 100 Institute Rd., Worcester, MA 01609, USA
Interests: business strategy; project management; health care; public policy; the environment
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

System Dynamics (SD) modeling is a well-established method for addressing public health issues, for example, controlling the spread and harm of epidemics (such as COVID-19). Because SD can model people’s behavior, as well as larger societal forces, it is often more effective than other methods at finding lasting solutions to persistent problems.

This Special Issue invites the submission of papers that examine public health policy issues using stock-flow models that can simulate system behavior and test various interventions to improve health outcomes in a subject population. If possible, these models should be calibrated to real-world data; however, in all cases, they should use parameters derived from established peer-reviewed research and/or subject-matter experts. Novel methods for improving the quality of their results are welcome.

Examinations of any public health issue are acceptable. While not an exhaustive list, possible topics include the following:

  • The spread and control of epidemics;
  • Chronic disease;
  • Cancer;
  • Addiction;
  • Mental health;
  • Suicide prevention;
  • Population health;
  • Health care capacity and delivery;
  • Inequality in health care.

Papers should clearly and concisely describe the issue being addressed, the approach taken, the feedback structure of the model, all policies explored, and the simulation results.

Dr. Karim J. Chichakly
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Systems is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • system dynamics
  • public health systems
  • thinking disease management
  • population health
  • health care

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

22 pages, 3325 KiB  
Article
Health and Economic Effects of Salt Reduction Interventions for Preventing Noncommunicable Diseases in Japan: A System Dynamics Simulation Study
by Fatin Aminah Hassan, Nobuo Nishi, Nobuaki Minato, Takehiro Sugiyama and Nayu Ikeda
Systems 2024, 12(11), 478; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12110478 - 8 Nov 2024
Viewed by 937
Abstract
Reducing salt intake is a vital public health measure for combating noncommunicable diseases and mitigating rising social security expenditures in Japan. We developed a system dynamics model to analyze the potential health and cost effects of salt reduction interventions among the Japanese population [...] Read more.
Reducing salt intake is a vital public health measure for combating noncommunicable diseases and mitigating rising social security expenditures in Japan. We developed a system dynamics model to analyze the potential health and cost effects of salt reduction interventions among the Japanese population aged 40 years and above from 2012 to 2040. The simulation findings derived from the model indicate that, in the base run, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are projected to be approximately 55 and 9.5 per 100,000 people, respectively, contributing approximately 40 trillion yen in social security expenditures by 2040. The model predicts that implementing mandatory reformulation could decrease DALYs for CVD and CKD by 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, resulting in an approximately 6.7% reduction in social security expenditure. Additionally, voluntary reformulation is estimated to reduce the DALYs for CVD and CKD by 4.7% and 5.2%, leading to a 5.6% decrease in social security expenditure. Finally, accelerating the adoption of a low-salt diet is expected to lower the DALYs for CVD by 2.8% and CKD by 3.2%, thereby reducing social security expenditures by 3.4%. Thus, product reformulation initiatives have a greater impact on health and economic outcomes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation for Public Health)
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