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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Air, Climate Change and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2020) | Viewed by 66039

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Beniamino Russo

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Guest Editor

Project Manager of R&D+i in AQUATEC Urban Drainage and Resilience Direction (SUEZ Group); Escuela Universitaria Politécnica de La Almunia (EUPLA) (Technical College of La Almunia), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
Interests: urban drainage; inlet efficiency; flood risk assessment; urban resilience; combined sewer overflows (CSOs)
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Dr. Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz

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Guest Editor

R&D Project Manager at Water Technology Center (CETAQUA; Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
Interests: Hydraulics, hydrology, urban drainage, flood risk management, flood damage assessments, urban resilience.

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We live in a world of cities, and that trend will continue in the future. Today, 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66% by 2050. Moreover, climate change will cause pressures and uncertainties that will pose challenges to the society, economy, and environment. In this case, focusing on the impacts on the urban living, this can affect basic urban services, such as water or energy supply, making the city capacity of continuously functioning crucial for most part of world population. As the United Nations stated, managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century.

In this context RESCCUE project (www.resccue.eu) aims to help urban areas around the world to become more resilient to climate change providing innovative models and tools to improve the ability of cities to withstand and recover quickly from multiple shocks and stresses and maintain continuity of services.

This Special Issue of Sustainability calls RESCCUE partners and stakeholders for innovative research papers coming from the scientific activities carried out during the last years that will advance our knowledge/capability in the field of Urban Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation with special concern on the following issues:

Climate Impact Assessment
Comprehensive risk assessment including direct/indirect and tangible/intangible impacts
Multisectorial and multi-hazard approaches to assess urban resilience
Climate-related hazards and cascading effects on critical services and infrastructures
Nature Based Solutions for building urban resilience
CBA and MCA for adaptation measures prioritization

References:

Arrighi C., Brugioni M., Castelli F., Franceschini S., Mazzanti B. (2018), Flood risk assessment in art cities. J. Flood Risk Manage, 11: S616-S631. doi:1111/jfr3.12226.
ARUP International Development and the Rockefeller Foundation. City Resilience and the City Resilience Framework; Arup: London, UK, 2015.
Chen A. S., Hammond M. J., Djordjević S., Butler D., Khan D. M., Veerbeek W. (2016). From hazard to impact: flood damage assessment tools for mega cities. Nat Hazards 82: 857. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2223-2
Cortès M., Turco M., Llasat-Botija M., Llasat M. (2018). The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18. 10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018.
Evans, B.; Chen, A.S.; Prior, A.; Djordjevic, S.; Savic, D.A.; Butler, D.; Goodey, P.; Stevens, J.R.; Colclough, G. Mapping urban infrastructure interdependencies and fuzzy risks. Procedia Eng. 2018, 212, 816–823.
Global Cities Institute & GDF Suez. Cities and Sustainable Infrastructure, GCI Policy Snapshot No. 3; Global Cities Institute & GDF Suez: Barcelona, Spain, 2015.
Jongman, Brenden & Kreibich, Heidi & Apel, Heiko & Barredo, José & D Bates, P & Feyen, L & Gericke, A & Neal, Jeffrey & C J H Aerts, J & Ward, Philip. (2012). Comparative flood damage model assessment: Towards a European approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 12. 3733-3752. 10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012.
Martínez‐Gomariz E, Gómez M, Russo B, Sánchez P, Montes J. A. (2018) Methodology for the damage assessment of vehicles exposed to flooding in urban areas. Journal of Flood Risk Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12475
Martínez‐Gomariz, E., Russo, B., Gómez, M. and Plumed, A. (2019) An approach to the modelling of stability of waste containers during urban flooding. Journal of Flood Risk Management. jfr3.12558, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12558,
Messner F., Meyer V., Penning-Rowsell E.C., Green C., Tunstall S., and van der Veen A. (2007). Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods, FLOODsite Project Deliverable D9.1. Wallingford, UK: FloodSite Consortium.
Martin-Ortega, J.; Markandya, A. The Costs of Drought: the Exceptional 2007–2008 Case of Barcelona; BC3 Working Paper Series 2009-09; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3): Bilbao, Spain, 2009.
Milanesi L., Pilotti M., Belleri A., Marini A., Fuchs S. (2018). Vulnerability to flash floods: A simplified structural model for masonry buildings. Water Resources Research, 54, 7177–7197. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022577
Nascimento N., Machado M. L., Baptista M., Silva A. D. P. (2007). The assessment of damage caused by floods in the Brazilian context. Urban Water Journal, 4, 195–210.
Olsen A.S., Zhou Q., Linde J. J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K. (2015). Comparing methods of calculating expected annual damage in urban pluvial flood risk assessments. Water, 7, 255-270; doi:10.3390/w7010255
Penning-Rowsell E.C, Viavattene C., Pardoe J., Chatterton J., Parker D., Morris J. (2010). The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques. The Burroughs, Hendon, London, UK: Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University Press.
Scawthorn C., Flores P.L., Blais N., Seligson H.A., Tate E., Chang S.H., Mifflin E., Thomas W., Murphy J., Jones C., Lawrence M. (2006). HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology Damage and Loss Assessment.
UN-Habitat, Resilience. Available online: https://unhabitat.org/urban-themes/resilience/ (accessed on 27 September 2018).
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352); United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: New York, NY, USA, 2014.
Velasco M., Cabello A., Russo B. (2016). Flood damage assessment in urban areas. Application to the Raval district of Barcelona using synthetic depth damage curves. Urban Water Journal. Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 426-440. doi: 10.1080/1573062X.2014.994005.
Walloth, C.; Gurr, J.M.; Schmidt, J.A. Understanding Complex Urban Systems: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Modeling; Springer International Publishing: Basel, Switzerland, 2014.
Watts, D.; Ren, H. Classification and discussion on methods for cascading failure analysis in transmission. In Proceedings of the 2008 IEEE International Conference on Sustainable Energy Technologies, Singapore, 24–27 November 2008; pp. 1200–1205.
Zhou Q., Mikkelsen P.S., Halsnæs K., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., (2012). Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits. Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, 539–549.

Prof. Dr. Beniamino Russo
Dr. Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Urban floods
tangible damages
damage models
flood-depth damage curves

Published Papers (14 papers)

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Editorial

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7 pages, 1055 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: From Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures

by Marc Velasco, Beniamino Russo and Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz

Sustainability 2020, 12(16), 6430; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12166430 - 10 Aug 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2842

Abstract

This Special Issue brings together recent research findings related to urban resilience, in particular taking into account climate change impacts and hydrological hazards. Taking advantage of the work done in the H2020 RESCCUE project, 12 different papers dealing with several issues related to the resilience of urban areas have been published. Due to the complexity of cities, urban resilience management is one of the key challenges that our societies have to deal with in the near future. In addition, urban resilience is a transversal and multi-sectorial issue, affecting different urban services, several hazards, and all the steps of the risk management cycle. This is precisely why the papers contained in this Special Issue focus on varied subjects, such as impact assessments, urban resilience assessments, adaptation strategies, flood risk and urban services, always focusing on at least two of these topics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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Research

Jump to: Editorial, Other

25 pages, 9307 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Urban Flood Resilience in Barcelona for Current and Future Scenarios. The RESCCUE Project

by Beniamino Russo, Marc Velasco, Luca Locatelli, David Sunyer, Daniel Yubero, Robert Monjo, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Daniel Sánchez-Muñoz, Barry Evans and Andoni Gonzalez Gómez

Sustainability 2020, 12(14), 5638; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145638 - 13 Jul 2020

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 6480 | Correction

Abstract

The results of recent climate projections for the city of Barcelona show a relevant increment of the maximum rainfall intensities for the period 2071–2100. Considering the city as a system of systems, urban resilience is strictly linked to the proper functioning of urban services and the knowledge of the cascading effects that may occur in the case of the failure of one or more critical infrastructures of a particular strategic sector. In this context, the aim of this paper is to assess urban resilience through the analysis of the behavior of the main urban services in case of pluvial floods for current and future rainfall conditions due to climate change. A comprehensive flood risk assessment including direct, indirect, tangible and intangible impacts has been performed using cutting edge sectorial and integrated models to analyze the resilience of different urban services (urban drainage, traffic, electric and waste sectors) and their cascade effects. In addition, the paper shows how the information generated by these models can be employed to feed a more holistic analysis to provide a general overview of the city’s resilience in the case of extreme rainfall events. According to the obtained results, Barcelona could suffer a significant increase of socio-economic impacts due to climate change if adaptation measures are not adopted. In several cases, these impacts have been geographically distributed showing the specific situation of each district of the city for current and future scenarios. This information is essential for the justification and prioritization of the implementation of adaptation measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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26 pages, 8638 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Flood Risk Assessment in an Underground Railway System under the Impact of Climate Change—A Case Study of the Barcelona Metro

by Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Manuel Cañas Porcuna, Luca Locatelli and Beniamino Russo

Sustainability 2020, 12(13), 5291; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12135291 - 30 Jun 2020

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 7133

Abstract

Flooding events can produce significant disturbances in underground transport systems within urban areas and lead to economic and technical consequences, which can be worsened by variations in the occurrence of climate extremes. Within the framework of the European project RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas—a multi-sectorial approach focusing on water), climate projections for the city of Barcelona manifest meaningful increases in maximum rainfall intensities for the 2100 horizon. A better comprehension of these impacts and their conditions is consequently needed. A hydrodynamic modelling process was carried out on Barcelona Metro Line 3, as it was identified as vulnerable to pluvial flooding events. The Metro line and all its components are simulated in the urban drainage models as a system of computational link and nodes reproducing the main physical characteristics like slopes and cross-sections when embedded in the current 1D/2D hydrodynamic model of Barcelona used in the project RESCCUE. This study presents a risk analysis focused on ensuring transport service continuity in flood events. The results reveal that two of the 26 stations on Metro Line 3 are exposed to a high risk of flooding in current rainfall conditions, and 11 of the 26 stations on Metro Line 3 are exposed to a high risk of flooding in future rainfall conditions for a 20-year return period event, which affects Metro service in terms of increased risk. This research gives insights for stakeholders and policymakers to enhance urban flood risk management, as a reasonable approach to tackle this issue for Metro systems worldwide. This study provides a baseline for assessing potential flood outcomes in Metro systems and can be used to evaluate adaptation measures’ effectiveness. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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25 pages, 1629 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Methodology to Prioritize Climate Adaptation Measures in Urban Areas. Barcelona and Bristol Case Studies

by María Guerrero-Hidalga, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Barry Evans, James Webber, Montserrat Termes-Rifé, Beniamino Russo and Luca Locatelli

Sustainability 2020, 12(12), 4807; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124807 - 12 Jun 2020

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3573

Abstract

In the current context of fast innovation in the field of urban resilience against extreme weather events, it is becoming more challenging for decision-makers to recognize the most beneficial adaptation measures for their cities. Detailed assessment of multiple measures is resource-consuming and requires specific expertise, which is not always available. To tackle these issues, in the context of the H2020 project RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas), a methodology to effectively prioritize adaptation measures against extreme rainfall-related hazards in urban areas has been developed. It follows a multi-phase structure to progressively narrow down the list of potential measures. It begins using less resource-intensive techniques, to finally focus on the in-depth analysis on a narrower selection of measures. It involves evaluation of risks, costs, and welfare impacts, with strong focus on stakeholders’ participation through the entire process. The methodology is adaptable to different contexts and objectives and has been tested in two case studies across Europe, namely Barcelona and Bristol. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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18 pages, 5511 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Socio-Economic Assessment of Green Infrastructure for Climate Change Adaptation in the Context of Urban Drainage Planning

by Luca Locatelli, Maria Guerrero, Beniamino Russo, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, David Sunyer and Montse Martínez

Sustainability 2020, 12(9), 3792; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093792 - 07 May 2020

Cited by 32 | Viewed by 4838

Abstract

Green infrastructure (GI) contributes to improve urban drainage and also has other societal and environmental benefits that grey infrastructure usually does not have. Economic assessment for urban drainage planning and decision making often focuses on flood criteria. This study presents an economic assessment of GI based on a conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) that includes several benefits related to urban drainage (floods, combined sewer overflows and waste water treatment), environmental impacts (receiving water bodies) and additional societal and environmental benefits associated with GI (air quality improvements, aesthetic values, etc.). Benefits from flood damage reduction are monetized based on the widely used concept of Expected Annual Damage (EAD) that was calculated using a 1D/2D urban drainage model together with design storms and a damage model based on tailored flood depth–damage curves. Benefits from Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) damage reduction were monetized using a 1D urban drainage model with continuous rainfall simulations and prices per cubic meter of spilled combined sewage water estimated from literature; other societal benefits were estimated using unit prices also estimated from literature. This economic assessment was applied to two different case studies: the Spanish cities of Barcelona and Badalona. The results are useful for decision making and also underline the relevancy of including not only flood damages in CBA of GI. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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19 pages, 15116 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Interlinking Bristol Based Models to Build Resilience to Climate Change

by John Stevens, Rob Henderson, James Webber, Barry Evans, Albert Chen, Slobodan Djordjević, Daniel Sánchez-Muñoz and José Domínguez-García

Sustainability 2020, 12(8), 3233; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083233 - 16 Apr 2020

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 4180

Abstract

Expanding populations and increased urbanisation are causing a strain on cities worldwide as they become more frequently and more severely affected by extreme weather conditions. Critical services and infrastructure are feeling increasing pressure to be maintained in a sustainable way under these combined stresses. Methods to better cope with these demanding factors are greatly needed now, and with the predicted impacts of climate change, further adaptation will become essential for the future. All cities comprise a complex of interdependent systems representing critical operations that cannot function properly independently, or be fully understood in isolation of one another. The consequences of localised flooding can become much more widespread due to the inter-relation of these connected systems. Due to reliance upon one another and this connectedness, an all-encompassing assessment is appropriate. Different model representations are available for different services and integrating these enables consideration of these cascading effects. In the case study city of Bristol, 1D and 2D hydraulic modelling predicting the location and severity of flooding has been used in conjunction with modelling of road traffic and energy supply by linking models established for these respective sectors. This enables identification of key vulnerabilities to prioritise resources and enhance city resilience against future sea-level rise and the more intense rainfall conditions anticipated. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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25 pages, 5568 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Flood Depth‒Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas

by Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Edwar Forero-Ortiz, María Guerrero-Hidalga, Salvador Castán and Manuel Gómez

Sustainability 2020, 12(7), 2666; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072666 - 27 Mar 2020

Cited by 38 | Viewed by 7879

Abstract

Depth‒damage curves, also known as vulnerability curves, are an essential element of many flood damage models. A relevant characteristic of these curves is their applicability limitations in space and time. The reader will find firstly in this paper a review of different damage models and depth‒damage curve developments in the world, particularly in Spain. In the framework of the EU-funded RESCCUE project, site-specific depth‒damage curves for 14 types of property uses have been developed for Barcelona. An expert flood surveyor’s opinion was essential, as the occasional lack of data was made up for by his expertise. In addition, given the lack of national standardization regarding the applicability of depth‒damage curves for flood damage assessments in Spanish urban areas, regional adjustment indices have been derived for transferring the Barcelona curves to other municipalities. Temporal adjustment indices have been performed in order to modify the depth‒damage curves for the damage estimation of future flood events, too. This study attempts to provide nationwide applicability in flood damage reduction studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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15 pages, 1300 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Contribution of NBS to Urban Resilience in Stormwater Management and Control: A Framework with Stakeholder Validation

by Paula Beceiro, Rita Salgado Brito and Ana Galvão

Sustainability 2020, 12(6), 2537; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062537 - 24 Mar 2020

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3786

Abstract

Urban waters represent a crucial component for the enhancement of urban resilience due to their importance in cities. Nature-based solutions (NBS) have emerged as sustainable solutions to contribute to urban resilience in order to meet the challenges of climate change. In order to promote the use of NBS for increasing urban resilience, tools that demonstrate the value of this type of solutions over the long-term are required. A performance assessment system provides an adequate basis for demonstrating this value, as well as for diagnosing the current city situation, selecting and monitoring the implementation of solutions. Regarding NBS management, some assessment approaches have been published, focusing on assessing the effectiveness of NBS in the face of climate change and supporting their design and impact assessment. Nevertheless, an integrated approach to assess the NBS contribution for urban resilience has not been published. This paper presents a comprehensive resilience assessment framework (RAF) to evaluate the NBS contribution for urban resilience, focused on solutions for stormwater management and control. Furthermore, details on stakeholders’ validation, with focus on the metrics’ relevance and applicability to cities, is also presented. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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64 pages, 1718 KiB

Open AccessArticle

RAF Resilience Assessment Framework—A Tool to Support Cities’ Action Planning

by Maria Adriana Cardoso, Rita Salgado Brito, Cristina Pereira, Andoni Gonzalez, John Stevens and Maria João Telhado

Sustainability 2020, 12(6), 2349; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062349 - 17 Mar 2020

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 5535

Abstract

Urban areas are dynamic, facing evolving hazards, having interacting strategic services and assets. Their management involves multiple stakeholders bringing additional complexity. Potential impacts of climate dynamics may aggravate current conditions and the appearance of new hazards. These challenges require an integrated and forward-looking approach to resilient and sustainable urban development, being essential to identify the real needs for its achievement. Several frameworks for assessing resilience have been developed in different fields. However, considering the focus on climate change and urban services, specific needs were identified, particularly in assessing strategic urban sectors and their interactions with others and with the wider urban system. A resilience assessment framework was developed directing and facilitating an objective-driven resilience diagnosis of urban cities and services. This supports the decision on selection of resilience measures and the development of strategies to enhance resilience, outlining a path to co-build resilience action plans, and to track resilience progress in the city or service over time. This paper presents the framework and the main results of its application to three cities having diverse contexts. It was demonstrated that the framework highlights where cities and urban services stand, regarding resilience to climate change, and identifies the most critical aspects to improve, including expected future impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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18 pages, 8952 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Investigating the Effects of Pluvial Flooding and Climate Change on Traffic Flows in Barcelona and Bristol

by Barry Evans, Albert S. Chen, Slobodan Djordjević, James Webber, Andoni González Gómez and John Stevens

Sustainability 2020, 12(6), 2330; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062330 - 17 Mar 2020

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 4094

Abstract

This paper outlines the work carried out within the RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban ArEas) project that is, in part, examining the impacts of climate-driven hazards on critical services and infrastructures within cities. In this paper, we examined the methods employed to assess the impacts of pluvial flooding events for varying return periods for present-day (Baseline) and future Climate Change with no adaptation measures applied (Business as Usual) conditions on traffic flows within cities. Two cities were selected, Barcelona and Bristol, with the former using a meso-scale and the latter a micro-scale traffic model. The results show how as the severity of flooding increases the disruption/impacts on traffic flows increase and how the effects of climate change will increase these impacts accordingly. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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18 pages, 5162 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Urban Resilience to Flooding: Triangulation of Methods for Hazard Identification in Urban Areas

by Maria do Céu Almeida, Maria João Telhado, Marco Morais, João Barreiro and Ruth Lopes

Sustainability 2020, 12(6), 2227; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062227 - 12 Mar 2020

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3341

Abstract

The effects of climate dynamics on urban areas involve the aggravation of existing conditions and the potential for emergence of new hazards or risk factors. Floods are recognized as a leading source of consequences to society, including disruption of critical functions in urban areas, and to the environment. Consideration of the interplay between services providers ensuring urban functions is essential to deal with climate dynamics and associated risks. Assessment of resilience to multiple hazards requires integrated and multi-sectoral approaches embracing each strategic urban sector and interactions between them. A common limitation resides in the limited data and tools available for undertaking these complex assessments. The paper proposes a methodology to undertake the spatial characterization of the flood related hazards and exposure of both essential functions and services providers in urban areas, in the context of limitations in data and in ready-to-use tools. Results support the resilience assessment of these hazards, taking into account interdependencies and cascading effects. The approach is applied to Lisbon city as the study case. Results are promising in demonstrating the potential of combining data and knowledge from different sources with dual modelling approaches, allowing us to obtain trends on the magnitude of effects of climate scenarios and to assess potential benefits of adaptation strategies. Quantification of the effects is reached, but results need to be assessed together with the underlying levels of uncertainty. The methodology can facilitate dialogue among stakeholders and between different decision levels. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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15 pages, 6204 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City

by Edwar Forero-Ortiz, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz and Robert Monjo

Sustainability 2020, 12(5), 1779; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051779 - 27 Feb 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 5029

Abstract

Barcelona city has a strong dependence on the Ter and Llobregat reservoir system to provide drinking water. One main concern for the next century is a potential water scarcity triggered by a severe and persistent rainfall shortage. This is one of the climate-driven impacts studied within the EU funded project RESCCUE. To evaluate potential drought scenarios, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model reproduces the water contributions by month that have reached the reservoirs, regarding the accumulated rainfall over each sub-basin, representing the available historical-observed water levels. For future scenarios, we adjusted the input data set using climate projections of rainfall time series data of the project RESCCUE. Local outputs from 9 different climate models were applied to simulate river basins’ responses to reservoirs’ incoming water volume. Analyzing these results, we obtained average trends of the models for each scenario, hypothetical extreme values, and quantification for changes in water availability. Future water availability scenarios for Barcelona central water sources showed a mean decrease close to 11% in comparison with the period 1971–2015, considering the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario in the year 2100. This research forecasts a slight downward trend in water availability from rainfall contributions from the mid-21st century. This planned future behavior does not mean that the annual water contributions are getting lower than the current ones, but rather, identifies an escalation in the frequency of drought cycles. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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20 pages, 7542 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Electrical Grid Risk Assessment Against Flooding in Barcelona and Bristol Cities

by Daniel Sánchez-Muñoz, José L. Domínguez-García, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, Beniamino Russo, John Stevens and Miguel Pardo

Sustainability 2020, 12(4), 1527; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041527 - 18 Feb 2020

Cited by 26 | Viewed by 4525

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events and, consequently, flooding in urban and peri-urban areas. The electrical grid is exposed to an increase in fault probability because its infrastructure was designed considering historical frequencies of extreme events occurred in the past. In this respect, to ensure future energy plans and securing services is of great relevance to determine and evaluate the new zones that may be under risk and its relation to critical infrastructures for such extreme events. In this regard, the electrical distribution system is one of the key critical infrastructures since it feeds the others and with the future plans of zero-emissions (leading to the electrification of transport, buildings, renewable energies, etc.) will become even more important in the short term. In this paper, a novel methodology has been developed, able to analyze flood hazard maps quantifying the probability of failure risk of the electrical assets and their potential impacts using a probabilistic approach. Furthermore, a process to monetize the consequences of the yielded risk was established. The whole method developed was applied to the Barcelona and Bristol case study cities. In this way, two different examples of application have been undertaken by using slightly different inputs. Two main inputs were required: (1) the development of accurate GIS hazard flooding models; and (2) the location of the electrical assets (i.e., Distribution Centers (DCs)). To assess and monetize the flood risk to DCs, a variety of variables and tools were required such as water depths (i.e., flood maps), DCs’ areas of influence, fragility curves, and damage curves. The analysis was performed for different return periods under different scenarios, current (Baseline) and future (Business As Usual (BAU)) rainfall conditions. The number of DCs affected was quantified and classified into different categories of risk, where up to 363 were affected in Barcelona and 623 in Bristol. Their risk monetization resulted in maximums of 815,700 € in Barcelona and 643,500 € in Bristol. Finally, the percentage of risk increases when considering future rainfall conditions (i.e., BAU) when calculated, resulting in a 2.38% increase in Barcelona and 3.37% increase in Bristol, which in monetary terms would be an average of a 22% increase. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: from Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures)

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