Interlinking Bristol Based Models to Build Resilience to Climate Change
Bristol Case Study
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Flood Modelling
2.2. Integrated Modelling
2.3. Focus Areas
3.1. Sources of Flooding Modelled
3.1.1. Tidal Fluvial Flooding
3.1.2. Pluvial Flooding
3.2. Integrated Flood Models
3.3. Focus Areas
3.3.1. St Philips Marsh
- With projected sea-level rise, the duration of critical tidal levels (exceeding about 7.5 m AOD) will be longer, thus the gravity overflow at Ashton Avenue SPS will be able to operate for less time (as indicated in Table 4)
- Severe storms and wet-weather periods will be more frequent and intense, increasing the likelihood of
- Sewer flows exceeding the installed sewage pumping capacity
- Slightly higher flood flow levels in the river on top of the tidal effects
- Current = exceeded once in 5 years
- 2050s = exceeded once in 2–3 years
- 2080s = exceeded once in 1–2 years
- 2110s = exceeded about once per year
- Provision of a surface water pumping facility to allow the watercourse/surface water system to discharge at all states of the tide (including sea-level rise)
- Re-grading of the Colliter’s Brook open channel section to alter the gradient and widen the channel, providing more conveyance capacity
- Reinstatement of syphons and modifications to the structure which currently allows overflow from the watercourse/surface water system to the combined system
- Reducing the impermeable area in subcatchment upstream of Ashton Drive by 20% achievable through the introduction of sustainable drainage systems
- Construction of riverside flood defence walls to protect the low spots
Conflicts of Interest
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|Epoch||1990 to 2025||2026 to 2055||2056 to 2085||2086 to 2115||Cumulative Rise 1990 to 2115 (m)|
|Rate of rise (mm/yr)||3.5||8||11.5||14.5||1.11|
|Cumulative rise in epoch (compared to 1990) (mm)||123||232||334||421|
|Velocity (m/s)||Depth of Flooding (m)|
|Danger for some|
|Danger for most|
|Danger for all|
|Water Depth||Type of Substation||Number of Occurrences||Percentage over Total|
|0.1 m < AWD ≤ 0.8 m||11 kV||80||49||41||18.6%||11.4%||9.5%|
|0.8 m < AWD ≤ 1.6 m||11 kV||19||92||87||4.4%||21.4%||20.2%|
|AWD > 1.6 m||11kV||2||56||76||0.5%||13.0%||17.7%|
|Decade||Critical Tide Level (7.5mAOD) Is Exceeded (%, Percentage of Time in a Year, on Average)||Extreme Tide Level (8.0mAOD) Is Exceeded (%, Percentage of Time in a Year, on Average)|
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Stevens, J.; Henderson, R.; Webber, J.; Evans, B.; Chen, A.; Djordjević, S.; Sánchez-Muñoz, D.; Domínguez-García, J. Interlinking Bristol Based Models to Build Resilience to Climate Change. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3233. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083233
Stevens J, Henderson R, Webber J, Evans B, Chen A, Djordjević S, Sánchez-Muñoz D, Domínguez-García J. Interlinking Bristol Based Models to Build Resilience to Climate Change. Sustainability. 2020; 12(8):3233. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083233Chicago/Turabian Style
Stevens, John, Rob Henderson, James Webber, Barry Evans, Albert Chen, Slobodan Djordjević, Daniel Sánchez-Muñoz, and José Domínguez-García. 2020. "Interlinking Bristol Based Models to Build Resilience to Climate Change" Sustainability 12, no. 8: 3233. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083233