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Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives

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A special issue of Plants (ISSN 2223-7747). This special issue belongs to the section "Plant Response to Abiotic Stress and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2024) | Viewed by 16712

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Sanja Manitašević Jovanović

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Guest Editor

Department of Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Biological Research “Siniša Stanković”—National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Interests: plant evolutionary ecology; plant–environment interaction; phenotypic plasticity; biochemical adaptations; heat stress proteins; I. pumila

Dr. Ana Vuleta

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Guest Editor

Department of Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Biological Research “Siniša Stanković”—National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Interests: plant evolutionary ecology; phenotypic plasticity; plant ecophysiology; phenotypic selection; pollination ecology; morphometrics

Dr. Yuval Sapir

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Guest Editor

The Botanical Garden, School of Plant Sciences and Food Security, G.S. Wise Faculty of Life Science, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
Interests: plant evolutionary ecology; flower evolution; pollination; plant reproductive biology; molecular ecology; genetic basis of plant adaptation

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Anthropogenic climate changes have already produced numerous negative effects on natural ecosystems, including changes in major ecological processes, alterations in ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity decline. Being directly affected by shifts in temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide levels, plants play a crucial role in responding to and adapting to the changing climate. Climate change can alter plants’ phenology, affecting the timing of flowering, seed germination, and other plant life cycle events, consequently disrupting ecological relationships and biodiversity. In addition, through various morphological, physiological, and biochemical adjustments, such as alteration of leaf structures, water-use efficiency, or growth patterns, plants can acclimate to changing climate conditions. Studying plant responses to a changing climate provides insights into the resilience and vulnerability of different species, helping to identify potential conservation priorities. As climate change continues to escalate, impacting ecosystems worldwide, understanding how plant species are coping is crucial for predicting future ecological dynamics and devising effective conservation strategies.

The present Special Issue of Plants aims to compile the ecological and evolutionary aspects of plant responses to changing climates. Scientists from all over the world are invited to submit their original research articles, reviews, methodological papers, and perspectives on a wide range of topics, including changes in morphological, physiological, and biochemical responses to temperature and water availability, phenological shifts in flowering and fruiting, alterations in plant distribution patterns, and the impact of climate change on plant–pollinator interactions. Moreover, studies of the genetic and epigenetic basis of plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions will shed light on the potential for evolutionary change in plant populations. In an era in which anthropogenic climatic change puts many species at risk, understanding the capacity of individuals for adjustment and adaptation is critical for predicting the "winners and losers" under future climate change.

In a time when human-induced climate change poses a threat to numerous species, comprehending how individuals can demonstrate adaptability and adjustment becomes crucial for predicting the potential "winners and losers" in the face of future climate change. With this objective in mind, our aspiration is that such a multidisciplinary compilation will foster greater comprehension and promote the significance of studying plant responses to climate change.

Dr. Sanja Manitašević Jovanović
Dr. Ana Vuleta
Dr. Yuval Sapir
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Plants is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2700 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

global warming
heat stress
oxidative stress
drought stress
photosynthesis
antioxidants
leaf functional traits
flowering phenology
acclimation
phenotypic plasticity
adaptation
epigenetics
aclimatization

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Published Papers (13 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 1384 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Plastic Responses of Iris pumila Functional and Mechanistic Leaf Traits to Experimental Warming

by Katarina Hočevar, Ana Vuleta and Sanja Manitašević Jovanović

Plants 2025, 14(6), 960; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14060960 - 19 Mar 2025

Viewed by 316

Abstract

Phenotypic plasticity is an important adaptive strategy that enables plants to respond to environmental changes, particularly temperature fluctuations associated with global warming. In this study, the phenotypic plasticity of Iris pumila leaf traits in response to an elevated temperature (by 1 °C) was investigated under controlled experimental conditions. In particular, we investigated important functional and mechanistic leaf traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), specific leaf water content (SLWC), stomatal density (SD), leaf thickness (LT), and chlorophyll content. The results revealed that an elevated temperature induced trait-specific plastic responses, with mechanistic traits exhibiting greater plasticity than functional traits, reflecting their role in short-term acclimation. SLA and SD increased at higher temperatures, promoting photosynthesis and gas exchange, while reductions in SLWC, LDMC, LT, and chlorophyll content suggest a trade-off in favor of growth and metabolic activity over structural investment. Notably, chlorophyll content exhibited the highest plasticity, emphasizing its crucial role in modulating photosynthetic efficiency under thermal stress. Correlation analyses revealed strong phenotypic integration between leaf traits, with distinct trait relationships emerging under different temperature conditions. These findings suggest that I. pumila employs both rapid physiological adjustments and longer-term structural strategies to cope with thermal stress, with mechanistic traits facilitating rapid adjustments and functional traits maintaining ecological stability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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16 pages, 918 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes in the Stress Response and Fitness of Hybrids Between Transgenic Soybean and Wild-Type Plants Under Heat Stress

by Li Zhang, Qi Yu, Xin Yin, Laipan Liu, Zhentao Ren, Zhixiang Fang, Wenjing Shen, Shengnan Liu and Biao Liu

Plants 2025, 14(4), 622; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14040622 - 19 Feb 2025

Viewed by 578

Abstract

Understanding the ability of hybrids of genetically modified (GM) soybean and wild soybean to survive and reproduce under unfavorable conditions is critical for answering questions regarding risk assessment and the existence of transgenes in the environment. To investigate the effects of high-temperature stress on soybean growth and competitive ability, the GM soybean DBN8002, which expresses the VIP3Aa and PAT proteins, and F₂ generations derived from a cross between GM soybean and NJW (wild soybean) were placed in a greenhouse with an elevated temperature (38/32 °C) for 14 days, and the plant agronomic performance and foreign protein levels of hybrid soybean were evaluated to observe their responses to high temperature. The results revealed that the VIP3Aa and PAT protein levels in F₂ and GM were not influenced by high-temperature stress. In contrast, the pollen germination, pod number, hundred-seed weight, and seed vigor of the F₂ hybrid and parent soybean plants decreased after high-temperature stress. However, except for the number of fully filled seeds per plant, the above parameters of the F₂ hybrid were similar to or slightly lower than those of wild soybean, and no significant difference in fitness was observed between the F₂ hybrid and wild soybean, indicating that the growth and competitive ability of the hybrid were similar to those of its female parent under heat stress conditions, resulting in the transgenes persisting and spreading within agricultural ecosystems. Our results enhance the understanding of the GM soybean plant’s response to heat stress, lay the foundation for breeding heat-resistant soybean varieties, and provide new insights and advanced information on the ecological risks arising from the escape of transgenes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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14 pages, 12262 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes in the Suitable Habitat of the Smoke Tree (Cotinus coggygria Scop.), a Species with an East Asian–Tethyan Disjunction

by Zichen Zhang, Xin Yan, Chang Guo, Wenpan Dong, Liangcheng Zhao and Dan Liu

Plants 2025, 14(4), 547; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14040547 - 10 Feb 2025

Viewed by 733

Abstract

The smoke tree (Cotinus coggygria Scop.) is a woody species mainly distributed in the Mediterranean region and East Asia, known for its high ecological and ornamental value. Investigation of changes in suitable habitats under different conditions can provide valuable insights with implications for predicting the distribution of C. coggygria. In this study, we employed a MaxEnt model to simulate the current, historical, and future suitable habitat of C. coggygria using distribution records and environmental variables. The results indicated that climatic variables had a much stronger impact on the suitable habitat of this species compared with soil and topographic variables, and bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter) and bio12 (annual precipitation) played particularly important roles in determining the suitable habitat. The core distribution of C. coggygria exhibited an East Asian–Tethyan disjunction. During the glacial period (Last Glacial Maximum), C. coggygria in Europe was concentrated in the glacial refugia in southern Europe; its range was substantially smaller during the glacial period than during interglacial periods (mid-Holocene). In contrast, C. coggygria in East Asia survived in regions similar to those of the interglacial period. Future climate change led to a gradual northward expansion of suitable habitats for C. coggygria, and the area of suitable habitat was substantially larger in Europe than in East Asia. There were significant differences among the four climate scenarios in Europe, with minimal variation in East Asia. Our findings provide valuable insights into the contrasting effects of climate change on European and East Asian populations of C. coggygria, which enhances our understanding of Eurasian species with discontinuous distributions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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17 pages, 12097 KiB

Open AccessArticle

MaxEnt-Based Predictions of Suitable Potential Distribution of Leymus secalinus Under Current and Future Climate Change

by Shimeng Zhao, Zongxian Zhang, Changyu Gao, Yiding Dong, Zeyao Jing, Lixia Du and Xiangyang Hou

Plants 2025, 14(2), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14020293 - 20 Jan 2025

Viewed by 979

Abstract

Grassland degradation is a serious ecological issue in the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China. Utilizing native grasses for the restoration of degraded grasslands is an effective technological approach. Leymus secalinus is a superior indigenous grass species for grassland ecological restoration in northern China. Therefore, the excavation of potential distribution areas of L. secalinus and important ecological factors affecting its distribution is crucial for grassland conservation and restoration of degraded grasslands. Based on 357 data points collected on the natural distribution of L. secalinus, this study employs the jackknife method and Pearson correlation analysis to screen out 23 variables affecting its spatial distribution. The MaxEnt model was used herein to predict the current suitable distribution area of L. secalinus and the suitable distribution of L. secalinus under different SSP scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85) for future climate. The results showed the following: (1) Mean diurnal temperature range, annual mean temperature, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and elevation are the major factors impacting the distribution of L. secalinus. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, L. secalinus is mainly distributed in the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China; in addition, certain suitable areas also exist in parts of Xinjiang, Tibet, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable areas for L. secalinus are generally the same as at present, with slight changes in area under different scenarios, with the largest expansion of 97,222 km² of suitable area in 2021–2040 under the SSP1-26 scenario and the largest shrinkage of potential suitable area in 2061–2080 under the SSP2-45 scenario, with 87,983 km². Notably, the northern boundary of the middle- and high-suitability areas is reduced, while the northeastern boundary and some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin are expanded. The results of this study revealed the suitable climatic conditions and potential distribution range of L. secalinus, which can provide a reference for the conservation, introduction, and cultivation of L. secalinus in new ecological zones, avoiding the blind introduction of inappropriate habitats, and is also crucial for sustaining the economic benefits associated with L. secalinus ecological services. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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16 pages, 4866 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Central Asia Cold Case: Siberian Pine Fingers New Suspects in Growth Decline CA 1700 CE

by David M. Meko, Dina F. Zhirnova, Liliana V. Belokopytova, Yulia A. Kholdaenko, Elena A. Babushkina, Nariman B. Mapitov and Eugene A. Vaganov

Plants 2025, 14(2), 287; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14020287 - 20 Jan 2025

Viewed by 773

Abstract

Tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sibirica Du Tour from near the upper treeline in the Western Sayan, Southern Siberia are found to have an exceptional (below mean–3SD) multi-year drop near 1700 CE, highlighted by the seven narrowest-ring years in a 1524–2022 regional chronology occurring in the short span of one decade. Tree rings are sometimes applied to reconstruct seasonal air temperatures; therefore, it is important to identify other factors that may have contributed to the growth suppression. The spatiotemporal scope of the “nosedive” in tree growth is investigated with a large network of P. sibirica (14 sites) and Larix sibirica Ledeb. (61 sites) chronologies, as well as with existing climatic reconstructions, natural archives, documentary evidence (e.g., earthquake records), and climate maps based on 20th-century reanalysis data. We conclude that stress from low summer temperatures in the Little Ice Age was likely exacerbated by tree damage associated with weather extremes, including infamous Mongolian “dzuds”, over 1695–1704. A tropical volcanic eruption in 1695 is proposed as the root cause of these disturbances through atmospheric circulation changes, possibly an amplified Scandinavia Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. Conifer tree rings and forest productivity recorded this event across all of Altai–Sayan region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 4476 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Physiological and Biochemical Responses of Pseudocereals with C3 and C4 Photosynthetic Metabolism in an Environment with Elevated CO₂

by Bruna Evelyn Paschoal Silva, Stefânia Nunes Pires, Sheila Bigolin Teixeira, Simone Ribeiro Lucho, Natan da Silva Fagundes, Larissa Herter Centeno, Filipe Selau Carlos, Fernanda Reolon de Souza, Luis Antonio de Avila and Sidnei Deuner

Plants 2024, 13(23), 3453; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13233453 - 9 Dec 2024

Viewed by 880

Abstract

The present work aimed to investigate the effect of increasing CO₂ concentration on the growth, productivity, grain quality, and biochemical changes in quinoa and amaranth plants. An experiment was conducted in open chambers (OTCs) to evaluate the responses of these species to different levels of CO₂ {a[CO₂] = 400 ± 50 μmol mol⁻¹ CO₂ for ambient CO₂ concentration, e[CO₂] = 700 ± 50 μmol mol⁻¹ CO₂ for the elevated CO₂ concentration}. Growth parameters and photosynthetic pigments reflected changes in gas exchange, saccharolytic enzymes, and carbohydrate metabolism when plants were grown under e[CO₂]. Furthermore, both species maintained most of the parameters related to gas exchange, demonstrating that the antioxidant system was efficient in supporting the primary metabolism of plants under e[CO₂] conditions. Both species were taller and had longer roots and a greater dry weight of roots and shoots when under e[CO₂]. On the other hand, the panicle was shorter under the same situation, indicating that the plants invested energy, nutrients, and all mechanisms in their growth to mitigate stress in expense of yield. This led to a reduction on panicle size and, ultimately, reducing quinoa grain yield. Although e[CO₂] altered the plant’s metabolic parameters for amaranth, the plants managed to maintain their development without affecting grain yield. Protein levels in grains were reduced in both species under e[CO₂] in the average of two harvests. Therefore, for amaranth, the increase in CO₂ mainly contributes to lowering the protein content of the grains. As for quinoa, its yield performance is also affected, in addition to its protein content. These findings provide new insights into how plants C3 (amaranth) and C4 (quinoa) respond to e[CO₂], significantly increasing photosynthesis and its growth but ultimately reducing yield for quinoa and protein content in both species. This result ultimately underscore the critical need to breed plants that can adapt to e[CO₂] as means to mitigate its negative effects and to ensure sustainable and nutritious crop production in future environmental conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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16 pages, 4988 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Geographical Distribution Dynamics of Acorus calamus in China Under Climate Change

by Chunlei Yue, Hepeng Li and Xiaodeng Shi

Plants 2024, 13(23), 3352; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13233352 - 29 Nov 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1044

Abstract

Acorus calamus, a perennial emergent herb, is highly valued for its ornamental appeal, water purification ability, and medicinal properties. However, there is a significant contradiction between the rapidly increasing demand for A. calamus and the diminishing wild resources. Understanding its geographical distribution and the influence of global climate change on its geographical distribution is imperative for establishing a theoretical framework for the conservation of natural resources and the expansion of its cultivation. In this study, 266 distribution records of A. calamus and 18 selected key environmental factors were utilized to construct an optimal MaxEnt model via the ENMeval package. We simulated the potential geographical distributions under current conditions and under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) in the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. Additionally, we employed the jackknife method and response curves to identify the environmental factors with the greatest influence on the distribution of A. calamus, and their response intervals. The results indicate that the regularization multiplier (RM) of 3.5 and the feature combinations (FC) of linear (L), quadratic (Q), hinge (H), and product (P) are the optimal model parameter combinations. With these parameters, the model predictions are highly accurate, and the consistency of the results is significant. The dominant environmental factors and their thresholds affecting the distribution of A. calamus are the precipitation of the wettest month (≥109.87 mm), human footprint (≥5.39), annual precipitation (≥388.56 mm), and mean diurnal range (≤12.83 °C). The primary land use types include rivers and channels, reservoirs and ponds, lakes, urban areas, marshes, other constructed lands, rice fields, forested areas, and shrublands. Under current climate conditions, the suitable geographical distribution of A. calamus in China is clearly located east of the 400 mm precipitation line, with high- and low-suitability areas covering 121.12 × 10⁴ km², and 164.20 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Under future climate conditions, both high- and low- suitability areas are projected to increase significantly, whereas unsuitable areas are expected to decrease, with the centroid of each suitability zone shifting northward. This study provides a theoretical foundation for sustainable utilization, future production planning, and the development of conservation strategies for wild germplasm resources of A. calamus. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 21089 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Endemic Plant Section Tuberculata (Camellia L.) in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Projection

by Xu Xiao, Zhi Li, Zhaohui Ran, Chao Yan and Juyan Chen

Plants 2024, 13(22), 3175; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13223175 - 12 Nov 2024

Viewed by 1008

Abstract

Sect. Tuberculata, as one of the endemic plant groups in China, belongs to the genus Camellia of the Theaceae family and possesses significant economic and ecological value. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. In this study, using 65 occurrence records, along with 60 environmental factors, historical, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of sect. Tuberculata were analyzed. The results indicate that the size of the its potential habitat area in the current climate was 1.05 × 10⁵ km², and the highly suitable habitats were located in Guizhou, central-southern Sichuan, the Wuling Mountains in Chongqing, the Panjiang Basin, and southwestern Hunan. The highest probability of presence for it occurs at mean diurnal range (bio2) ≤ 7.83 °C, basic saturation (s_bs) ≤ 53.36%, temperature annual range (bio7) ≤ 27.49 °C, −7.75 °C < mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9) < 7.75 °C, annual UV-B seasonality (uvb2) ≤ 1.31 × 10⁵ W/m², and mean UV-B of highest month (uvb3) ≤ 5089.61 W/m². In particular, bio2 is its most important environmental factor. During the historical period, the potential habitat area for sect. Tuberculata was severely fragmented; in contrast, the current period has a more concentrated habitat area. In the three future periods, the potential habitat area will change by varying degrees, depending on the aggressiveness of emissions reductions, and the increase in the potential habitat area was the largest in the SSP2.6 (Low-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario. Although the SSP8.5 (High-concentration greenhouse gas emissions) scenario indicated an expansion in its habitat in the short term, its growth and development would be adversely affected in the long term. In the centroid analysis, the centroid of its potential habitat will shift from lower to higher latitudes in the northwest direction. The findings of our study will aid efforts to uncover its originsand geographic differentiation, conservation of unique germplasms, and forestry development and utilization. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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19 pages, 5394 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Examining the Sensitivity of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Indices to Plant Drought Stress in Grasslands in Poland

by Maciej Bartold, Konrad Wróblewski, Marcin Kluczek, Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zielińska and Piotr Goliński

Plants 2024, 13(16), 2319; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13162319 - 20 Aug 2024

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1800

Abstract

In this study, the emphasis is on assessing how satellite-derived vegetation indices respond to drought stress characterized by meteorological observations. This study aimed to understand the dynamics of grassland vegetation and assess the impact of drought in the Wielkopolskie (PL41) and Podlaskie (PL84) regions of Poland. Spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland dynamics regarding drought occurrences from 2020 to 2023 were examined. Pearson correlation coefficients with standard errors were used to analyze vegetation indices, including NDVI, NDII, NDWI, and NDDI, in response to drought, characterized by the meteorological parameter the Hydrothermal Coefficient of Selyaninov (HTC), along with ground-based soil moisture measurements (SM). Among the vegetation indices studied, NDDI showed the strongest correlations with HTC at r = −0.75, R² = 0.56, RMSE = 1.58, and SM at r = −0.82, R² = 0.67, and RMSE = 16.33. The results indicated drought severity in 2023 within grassland fields in Wielkopolskie. Spatial–temporal analysis of NDDI revealed that approximately 50% of fields were at risk of drought during the initial decades of the growing season in 2023. Drought conditions intensified, notably in western Poland, while grasslands in northeastern Poland showed resilience to drought. These findings provide valuable insights for individual farmers through web and mobile applications, assisting in the development of strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of drought on grasslands and thereby reduce associated losses. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 10363 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Influence of Climate Change on the Distribution of Hibiscus mutabilis in China: MaxEnt Model-Based Prediction

by Lu Zhang, Beibei Jiang, Yu Meng, Yin Jia, Qian Xu and Yuanzhi Pan

Plants 2024, 13(13), 1744; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13131744 - 24 Jun 2024

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 1701

Abstract

Our study utilized 374 geographical distribution records of H. mutabilis and 19 bioclimatic factors, employing the MaxEnt model and the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). The key environmental variables influencing the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis were analyzed through the comprehensive contribution rate, permutation importance, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Based on this analysis, the contemporary and future suitable distribution areas and their extents were predicted. The results indicate that the key limiting factor affecting the suitable distribution areas of H. mutabilis is the precipitation of the driest month (bio14), with secondary factors being annual precipitation (bio12), annual mean temperature (bio1), and annual temperature range (bio7). Under contemporary climate conditions, the total suitable area for H. mutabilis is approximately 2,076,600 km², primarily concentrated in the tropical and subtropical regions of southeastern China. Under low-to-medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), the total suitable area of H. mutabilis shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing compared to the current scenario. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), it exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial pattern changes indicate that the retention rate of suitable areas for H. mutabilis ranges from 95.28% to 99.28%, with the distribution centers primarily located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces, showing an overall migration trend towards the west and north. These findings suggest that H. mutabilis possesses a certain level of adaptability to climate change. However, it is crucial to consider regional drought and sudden drought events in practical cultivation and introduction processes. The results of our study provide a scientific basis for the rational cultivation management, conservation, and utilization of germplasm resources of H. mutabilis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 4146 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Spatial Shifts and Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological Niches under Climate Change Scenarios for Betula luminifera, a Fast-Growing Precious Tree in China

by Xian-Ge Hu, Jiahui Chen, Qiaoyun Chen, Ying Yang, Yiheng Lin, Zilun Jin, Luqiong Sha, Erpei Lin, El-Kassaby Yousry and Huahong Huang

Plants 2024, 13(11), 1542; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13111542 - 2 Jun 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1022

Abstract

The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. Betula luminifera is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of B. luminifera generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 × 10⁶ km²). However, the growth of B. luminifera is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 × 10⁶ km² when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 7867 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Potential Suitable Habitats of Chili Pepper in China under Climate Change

by Changrong Deng, Qiwen Zhong, Dengkui Shao, Yanjing Ren, Quanhui Li, Junqin Wen and Jianling Li

Plants 2024, 13(7), 1027; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13071027 - 4 Apr 2024

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2994

Abstract

Chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) is extensively cultivated in China, with its production highly reliant on regional environmental conditions. Given ongoing climate change, it is imperative to assess its impact on chili pepper cultivation and identify suitable habitats for future cultivation. In this study, the MaxEnt model was optimized and utilized to predict suitable habitats for open-field chili pepper cultivation, and changes in these habitats were analyzed using ArcGIS v10.8. Our results showed that the parameter settings of the optimal model were FC = LQPTH and RM = 2.7, and the critical environmental variables influencing chili pepper distribution were annual mean temperature, isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats were distributed across all provinces in China, with moderately- and highly-suitable habitats concentrated in the east of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats was expected to be larger than the current ones, except for SSP126-2050s, and reached the maximum under SSP126-2090s. The overlapping suitable habitats were concentrated in the east of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and south of the Inner Mongolia Plateau under various climate scenarios. In the 2050s, the centroids of suitable habitats were predicted to shift towards the southwest, except for SSP126, whereas this trend was reversed in the 2090s. Our results suggest that climate warming is conductive to the cultivation of chili pepper, and provide scientific guidance for the introduction and cultivation of chili pepper in the face of climate warming. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 16901 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Responses of Three Pedicularis Species to Geological and Climatic Changes in the Qinling Mountains and Adjacent Areas in East Asia

by Qijing Zhang, Zhaoping Lu, Mingchen Guo, Jia Kang, Jia Li, Xiaojing He, Jiayi Wu, Ruihang Liu, Jiaxin Dang and Zhonghu Li

Plants 2024, 13(6), 765; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants13060765 - 8 Mar 2024

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Abstract

The Qinling Mountains in East Asia serve as the geographical boundary between the north and south of China and are also indicative of climatic differences, resulting in rich ecological and species diversity. However, few studies have focused on the responses of plants to geological and climatic changes in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. Therefore, we investigated the evolutionary origins and phylogenetic relationships of three Pedicularis species in there to provide molecular evidence for the origin and evolution of plant species. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict the geographic distributions of three Pedicularis species during the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum period, and current and future periods, respectively. Furthermore, the distribution patterns of climate fluctuations and the niche dynamics framework were used to assess the equivalence or difference of niches among three Pedicularis species. The results revealed that the divergence of three Pedicularis species took place in the Miocene and Holocene periods, which was significantly associated with the large-scale uplifts of the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. In addition, the geographic distributions of three Pedicularis species have undergone a northward migration from the past to the future. The most important environmental variables affecting the geographic distributions of species were the mean diurnal range and annual mean temperature range. The niche divergence analysis suggested that the three Pedicularis species have similar ecological niches. Among them, P. giraldiana showed the highest niche breadth, covering nearly all of the climatic niche spaces of P. dissecta and P. bicolor. In summary, this study provides novel insights into the divergence and origins of three Pedicularis species and their responses to climate and geological changes in the Qinling Mountains and adjacent regions. The findings have also provided new perspectives for the conservation and management of Pedicularis species. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Plant Responses to a Changing Climate: Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives)

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