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Meteorology, Volume 4, Issue 3 (September 2025) – 2 articles

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24 pages, 1147 KiB  
Article
Systematic Biases in Tropical Drought Monitoring: Rethinking SPI Application in Mesoamerica’s Humid Regions
by David Romero and Eric J. Alfaro
Meteorology 2025, 4(3), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology4030018 - 8 Jul 2025
Viewed by 122
Abstract
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used to determine drought severity worldwide. However, inconsistencies exist regarding its application in warm, humid tropical climatic zones. Originally developed for temperate regions with a continental climate, the index may not adequately reflect drought conditions in [...] Read more.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely used to determine drought severity worldwide. However, inconsistencies exist regarding its application in warm, humid tropical climatic zones. Originally developed for temperate regions with a continental climate, the index may not adequately reflect drought conditions in tropical environments where rainfall regimes differ substantially. This study identifies the following two principal reasons why the traditional calculation method fails to characterize drought severity in tropical domains: first, the marked humidity contrast between the consistently humid rainy season and the rest of the year, and second, the diverse drought types in tropical regions, which include both long-term and short-term events. Using data from meteorological stations in Mexico’s humid tropics and comparing them with temperate regions, the study demonstrates significant discrepancies between SPI-based drought classifications and actual precipitation patterns. Our analysis shows that the abundant precipitation during the rainy season causes biases in longer time scales integrated into multivariate drought indices. Considerations are established for adapting the SPI for decision makers who monitor drought in humid tropics, with specific recommendations on time scale limits to avoid biases. This work contributes to more accurate drought monitoring in tropical regions by addressing the unique climatic characteristics of these environments. Full article
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13 pages, 500 KiB  
Article
Biome-Specific Estimation of Maximum Air Temperature Using MODIS LST in the São Francisco River Basin
by Fábio Farias Pereira, Mahelvson Bazilio Chaves, Claudia Rivera Escorcia, José Anderson Farias da Silva Bomfim and Mayara Camila Santos Silva
Meteorology 2025, 4(3), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology4030017 - 30 Jun 2025
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Abstract
The São Francisco River provides water for agriculture, urban areas, and hydroelectric power generation, benefiting millions of people in Brazil. Its Basin supports various species, some of which are endemic and rely on its unique habitats for survival. Currently, monitoring maximum air temperature [...] Read more.
The São Francisco River provides water for agriculture, urban areas, and hydroelectric power generation, benefiting millions of people in Brazil. Its Basin supports various species, some of which are endemic and rely on its unique habitats for survival. Currently, monitoring maximum air temperature in the São Francisco River Basin is limited due to sparse weather stations. This study proposes three linear regression models to estimate maximum air temperature using satellite-derived land surface temperature from the Aqua’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer across the Basin’s three main biomes: Caatinga, Cerrado, and Mata Atlântica. With over 94,000 paired observations of ground and satellite data, the models showed good performance, accounting for 46% to 54% of temperature variation. Cross-validation confirmed reliable estimates with errors below 2.7 °C. The findings demonstrate that satellite data can improve air temperature monitoring in areas with limited ground observations and suggest that the proposed biome-specific models could assist in environmental management and water resource planning in the São Francisco River Basin. This includes providing more informed policies for climate adaptation and sustainable development or analyzing variations in maximum air temperature in arid and semi-arid regions to contribute to desertification mitigation strategies in the São Francisco River Basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2025))
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