Meteorology, Volume 4, Issue 2 (June 2025) – 5 articles

Illinois is a leading state for agricultural production in the United States, and corn production in the state has rapidly increased since the 1970s. Intensification of agriculture has been shown to have impacts on the atmosphere by altering humidity, and changes in land cover and soil moisture have resulted in changes in stability and temperature in the planetary boundary layer. Using descriptive statistics and regression analysis, this study assessed changes in temperature and dew point across different land cover classes, parts of the growing season, and by the geographic location of the station (north vs. south) in Illinois from 2005–2022 using data from 58 hourly weather stations. Overall, dew points are not increasing more rapidly in cultivated agriculture areas compared to other land cover classes in the state. Dew points are increasing across land cover classifications, particularly in the later part of the growing season. Temperatures are not as consistent, with decreases in temperature observed in cultivated agricultural areas and during the peak of the growing season. While dew points are increasing in both the northern and southern regions of the state, temperature increases are only found in the north. Dew point increases in Illinois do not appear to be driven by changing agricultural practices. However, future work should examine additional regions inside and outside of the Corn Belt to determine if changes in land cover and agricultural practices have impacts on the climates of those regions. Full article

Cut-off low (COL) pressure systems significantly influence local weather in regions with high COL frequency, particularly in western North America. Nonetheless, future changes in COL frequency, intensity, and precipitation patterns remain uncertain. This study examines projected COL changes and their drivers in western North America under a high greenhouse gas concentration pathway (SSP585) using a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 and a feature-tracking algorithm. We compare historical simulations (1980–2009) and future projections (2070–2099), revealing a marked increase in COL track density during summer in the northeast Pacific and western United States, while a strong decrease is projected for winter, associated with shifts in jet streams. Climate models project an increase in COL-related precipitation in future climate, with winter and spring experiencing more intense and localized precipitation, while autumn showing a more widespread precipitation pattern. Additionally, there is an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, though accompanied by large uncertainties. The projected increase in extreme precipitation highlights the need to understand COL dynamics for effective climate adaptation in affected areas. Further research should aim to refine projections and reduce uncertainties, supporting better-informed policy and decision-making. Full article

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for various industries, particularly in sectors like energy, agriculture, and disaster management. In Slovenia, weather predictions are crucial for estimating electrical current transmission efficiency through power lines and ensuring the reliable supply of electricity to consumers. This study focuses on quantifying measurement uncertainty in meteorological forecasts generated by the CALMET model, specifically addressing its impact on energy transmission reliability. The research highlights those local factors, such as topography, that contribute significantly to measurement uncertainty, which affects the accuracy of weather forecasts. The study examines meteorological parameters like temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation, identifying how environmental variations lead to fluctuations in forecast reliability. Understanding these uncertainties is critical for improving the precision of forecasts, especially for energy transmission, where even small errors can have substantial consequences. The primary goal of this study is to enhance forecast reliability by addressing measurement uncertainty. By improving the interpretation of data, refining measurement methods, and integrating advanced models, the study proposes ways to reduce uncertainty. These improvements could support better decision-making in energy transmission and other sectors that rely on accurate weather predictions. Ultimately, the findings suggest that addressing measurement uncertainty is key to ensuring more dependable and accurate forecasting in critical industries. Full article

Cyclone Mocha, classified as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS), followed an unusual northeastward trajectory while exhibiting a well-defined eyewall structure. It experienced rapid intensification (RI) before making landfall along the Myanmar coast. It caused heavy rainfall (~90 mm) and gusty winds (~115 knots) over the coastal regions of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) countries, such as the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. The factors responsible for the RI of the cyclone in lower latitudes, such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), vertical wind shear (VWS), and mid-tropospheric moisture content, are studied using the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST and National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Unified Model (NCUM) global analysis. The results show that SST and TCHP values of 30 °C and 100 (KJ cm⁻²) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) favored cyclogenesis. However, a VWS (ms⁻¹) and relative humidity (RH; %) within the range of 10 ms⁻¹ and >70% also provided a conducive environment for the low-pressure system to transform into the ESCS category. The physical mechanism of RI and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone have been investigated using forecast products and compared with Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) satellite observations. The key results indicate that a dry air intrusion associated with a series of troughs and ridges at a 500 hPa level due to the western disturbance (WD) during that time was very active over the northern part of India and adjoining Pakistan, which brought north-westerlies at the 200 hPa level. The existence of troughs at 500 and 200 hPa levels are significantly associated with a Rossby wave pattern over the mid-latitude that creates the baroclinic zone and favorable for the recurvature and RI of Mocha cyclone clearly represented in the NCUM analysis. Moreover the Q-vector analysis and steering flow (SF) emphasize the vertical motion and recurvature of the Mocha cyclone so as to move in a northeast direction, and this has been reasonably well represented by the NCUM model analysis and the 24, 7-, and 120 h forecasts. Additionally, a quantitative assessment of the system indicates that the model forecasts of TC tracks have an error of 50, 70, and 100 km in 24, 72, and 120 h lead times. Thus, this case study underscores the capability of the NCUM model in representing the physical mechanisms behind the recurving and RI over the BoB. Full article

Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclones around the Indian subcontinent cause widespread floods and other natural hazards. There is no single convincing answer to this puzzle in the era of global warming. The warming of the western and central Indian Ocean is one of the few prominent features of local warming. The availability of moisture in the atmosphere in the last decade is an important factor in the rapid intensification and strengthening of tropical cyclones (TCs) before landfall. Essentially, the AS basin has shown an upward trend in the number and intensity of very severe cyclones during the period of 2009–2019. The decadal variation (1991–2001, 2002–2011, and 2012–2021) in SST, vorticity, wind shear, and moisture is primarily responsible for the genesis and intensification of cyclones during the post-monsoon season (October–November–December) over the AS. The results showed that slight changes in wind conditions, such as increased wind shear and the northward shift of the Asian Jet Stream over the region, facilitate TC formation. Full article