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Engineering Proceedings
Volume 69
Issue 1
10.3390/engproc2024069125
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Proceeding Paper

Water Demand Forecast Using Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models †

by
Maria Mercedes Gamboa-Medina
* and
Fabrizio Silva Campos
São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos 13566-590, SP, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
Presented at the 3rd International Joint Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis & Computing and Control for the Water Industry (WDSA/CCWI 2024), Ferrara, Italy, 1–4 July 2024.
Eng. Proc. 2024, 69(1), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069125
Published: 12 September 2024
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The 3rd International Joint Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis & Computing and Control for the Water Industry (WDSA/CCWI 2024))
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Abstract

Short-time forecasting of the demand on water distribution networks is a challenging task because of the high variability and uncertainty of that demand. Of the different approaches used, we consider the probability modeling of demand time series to be the most interesting, and specifically propose the use of Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA) models. The complete proposed model uses a gamma probability density function, variables for weekends, and harmonic functions for daily and weekly seasonality, among other parameters. In the context of the Battle of Water Demand Forecasting, we train and test the model with a demand database for ten District Metered Areas. We obtain high accuracy, with mean absolute error values of around 0.25 L/s to 1.89 L/s.
Keywords: autoregressive models; water supply; smart water autoregressive models; water supply; smart water

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MDPI and ACS Style

Gamboa-Medina, M.M.; Campos, F.S. Water Demand Forecast Using Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models. Eng. Proc. 2024, 69, 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069125

AMA Style

Gamboa-Medina MM, Campos FS. Water Demand Forecast Using Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models. Engineering Proceedings. 2024; 69(1):125. https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069125

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gamboa-Medina, Maria Mercedes, and Fabrizio Silva Campos. 2024. "Water Demand Forecast Using Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models" Engineering Proceedings 69, no. 1: 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069125

APA Style

Gamboa-Medina, M. M., & Campos, F. S. (2024). Water Demand Forecast Using Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average Models. Engineering Proceedings, 69(1), 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2024069125

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