Tectonic Control of Aseismic Creep and Potential for Induced Seismicity Along the West Valley Fault in Southeastern Metro Manila, Philippines

Vertical creep along 15 ground ruptures within a 15 km long and 1.5 km wide zone has been occurring along the southeastern part of Metro Manila. Though the unusually high rates of vertical slip point to excessive groundwater withdrawal as the trigger, the evidence presented herein indicates that these may not be simple irregular subsidence fissures. Tectonic control of creep along these traces is suggested by the following: the occurrence of some of these ground ruptures along pre-existing scarps that coincide with topographic and lithologic boundaries, the left-stepping en echelon pattern of surface rupturing, and the distribution of the creeping zone within the dilational gap of the dextral strike-slip West Valley Fault (WVF). Furthermore, interpretation of an exposure across one of the creeping faults indicates reactivation by creep of a pre-existing tectonic fault zone. The paleoseismic evidence also suggests that the pre-creep slips are coseismic and dominantly strike-slip. Recognizing the occurrence of coseismic slip preceding aseismic creep is a primary consideration in assessing the potential of the WVF’s creeping segment and its adjacent segments in generating earthquakes. Tighter groundwater extraction regulations may be necessary to avoid exacerbating the effects of vertical ground deformation and the occurrence of induced seismicity.