Background: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) distribution in archipelagic regions involves complex trade-offs between transportation, infrastructure investment, and contractual arrangements. While most optimisation studies focus on seller-managed Delivery Ex-Ship (DES) schemes, limited research addresses buyer-managed Free on Board (FOB) frameworks that extend decision
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Background: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) distribution in archipelagic regions involves complex trade-offs between transportation, infrastructure investment, and contractual arrangements. While most optimisation studies focus on seller-managed Delivery Ex-Ship (DES) schemes, limited research addresses buyer-managed Free on Board (FOB) frameworks that extend decision responsibility upstream.
Methods: This study develops a two-stage integrated optimisation model for long-term LNG supply chain planning under an FOB contractual scheme with time-dependent deterministic demand. Stage 1 determines hub selection, port clustering, vessel sizing, fleet configuration, and endogenous infrastructure capacities using a genetic algorithm, while Stage 2 optimises cluster-level routing sequences. Robustness is assessed through multiple independent runs and sensitivity analysis.
Results: A case study of the Nusa Tenggara region identifies Sumbawa as the optimal hub. The upstream segment consistently selects a 65,000 m
3 vessel under terminal service capacity constraints, while downstream clusters are served by 3500 m
3 and 10,000 m
3 vessels depending on distance and demand aggregation. Infrastructure requirements are derived from peak-demand conditions, and the resulting levelised logistic cost is 4.66 USD/MMBtu.
Conclusions: The findings demonstrate that FOB arrangements fundamentally reshape network configuration, fleet segmentation, and infrastructure sizing, providing a robust strategic planning framework for buyer-managed LNG supply chains in archipelagic contexts.
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