Abstract
We study change-point estimation for absolutely continuous independent and identically distributed random variables from a nonparametric point of view. We define a sequence of processes and estimators based on U-statistics, whose kernel function has a degree greater than two. We then propose to extend the results in the literature on the asymptotic behavior of a sequence of processes and estimators, in the case of the existence or not of a change point. Numerical simulations are provided to support the theoretical results.
MSC:
60G10; 62G05
1. Introduction
The change-point problem was first considered by Page [1,2] for quality control. Since then, many authors have explored the topic. Among others, Chernoff and Zack [3] have proposed test statistics for detecting shifts in the mean of the normal distribution function. A review of parametric procedures for the change-point problem is given by Wolfe and Schechtman [4]. Csörgö and Horvath [5] have obtained invariance principles for tests based on U-statistics-type processes and Csörgö and Horvath [6] have proposed a review of twenty nonparametric methods for change-point problems.
The study of change points was developed through different aspects and different approaches. In a nonparametric framework, Döring [7] has proposed the maximizing point of weighted multivariate U-statistic process as the estimator of the change point. He has proved, under mild moment conditions, almost certain convergence and the rate of convergence. Ciuperca [8] has studied a general criterion to determine the number of change points. Mohr and Selk [9] have considered a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function modeled nonparametrically. They have shown the consistency of the estimator of the change-point based on a Kolmogorov–Smirnov functional of the marked empirical process of residuals and they have proved an optimal rate of convergence. For detecting epidemic changes, Rackauskas and Wendler [10] have presented a robust test statistic based on the Wilcoxon statistic and have proved a functional central limit theorem for U-processes in Hölder spaces. Ngatchou-Wandji et al. [11] have studied some change-point tests based on U-statistics for weakly dependent observations. For their part, Ngatchou-Wandji et al. [12,13] have defined weak change as a change with too small a magnitude and have proposed new likelihood-based tools for weak changes’ study in the mean of class of Conditional Heteroscedastic AutoRegressive Non-Linear (CHARN) models whose the results are applied to both change detection and location estimation. On weak changes’ study again, Aouissaoui et al. [14] have proposed tests for weak changes in the conditional mean of a class of parametric conditional heteroscedastic nonlinear models. Recently, Ngatchou-Wandji et al. [15] extended the results of Ngatchou-Wandji et al. [11] by studying multiple change points for absolutely regular observations.
In this paper, we consider absolutely continuous independent random variables , with cumulative distribution function , and density for . We introduce the kernel
supposed bounded, integrable, differentiable, satisfying the integrability conditions and invariant for all permutations of the set . We study the following estimator and sequence of processes:
and
where k is the eventual change point. The estimators and the sequence of processes studied previously have been constructed with kernels of degree two, for example, in Csörgö and Horvath [5]. As for us, our contribution consists of generalizing the existing results to the associated estimators and to the sequence of processes whose degree l of the kernel is greater than two; defined in (1) is therefore a generalization of what has been studied so far in the literature. The kernel will be a function of l consecutive variables and we study the asymptotic behavior of the estimators and the sequence of processes with much longer memory.
With a kernel of degree l greater than two, we consider in this paper two cases: the first one where have the same law and the second one corresponds to the existence of a change point, i.e, there exists an integer such that and are different.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we define the estimators and the sequence of processes, and show the different decompositions of the latter by using the Hoeffding decomposition (Hoeffding [16]). In Section 3, we present the asymptotic properties of the estimators and the sequence of processes. Numerical simulations are provided in the Section 4 and the last section is devoted to proofs of our main results.
2. General Definitions and Assumptions
For the cumulative distribution function F, denote by the following real number:
and for the cumulative distribution functions F and G, denote by the following real number:
We study the problems of change-point estimation under the assumption ,
:
: ∃ such that and .
: ∃ such that and , and , for some .
Under , we further assume that there exists a constant such that and , which corresponds to weak changes (Ngatchou-Wandji et al. [12]). Under these assumptions, we can determine the value of the constant C.
In other words, (resp. ) corresponds to the non existence of change-point (resp. the existence of change-point at , the existence of weak change).
So, we have
Let , then
We will apply the Taylor–Young formula to , for the case of weak changes, we get
where
C is then a function of l.
We consider that is an estimator of (resp. , under (resp. , .
Let us decompose into the sum of U-statistics:
with
Applying the Hoeffding decomposition to the U-statistic , we have under
where
We will use the following notations for the proof of the Theorem 2. Denote, for ,
and
In this paper, we make the following assumptions:
(): is a sequence of i.i.d random variables with cumulative distribution function F.
(): is a sequence of i.i.d random variables with cumulative distribution function G.
(): We consider a sequence of i.i.d random variables with cumulative distribution function , where F is the cumulative distribution function of . We have
3. Asymptotic Behavior
In this section, we state our results. The proofs are postponed to the next section.
Define
Theorem 1.
Assume that holds. Then, under , if
the sequence of processes converges in distribution towards a zero-mean Gaussian process with representation
where is a Brownian motion with covariance:
Proof.
See Appendix A. □
Theorem 2.
Assume that and hold. Then, under , if
the sequence of processes converges in distribution towards a Gaussian process with mean
and representation
where and are Brownian motions.
Proof.
See Appendix A. □
Theorem 3.
Assume that holds. Then, under , we have
Proof.
See Appendix A. □
Theorem 4.
Assume that and hold. Then, under , we have
Proof.
See Appendix A. □
4. Numerical Simulations
We present a numerical simulation on the study of the asymptotic behavior of the process based on U-statistics of degree . The parameters used for simulating the results of Theorems 1 and 2 are provided in (Table 1).
Table 1.
We take , and . The change-point occurs at .
We consider random variables defined as follows.
Under the hypothesis ,
where are i.i.d.
Under the hypothesis ,
with .
We thus have the theoretical moments:
- Before change: , ;
- After change: , .
The trajectories of the considered random variables are described in this Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Shows the simulation of the trajectories of before the change point (in black) and after the change point (in red).
We use the Gaussian kernel for defined by
This kernel is bounded: , symmetric by permutation and differentiable.
Then we have
and
where is the Hoeffding projection of order 1:
Numerical estimation: .
We now show the simulations results of Theorems 1 and 2:
4.1. Theorem 1 (A0: No Change)
converges in distribution to
- Mean: 0 for any ;
- Covariance: .
Theoretical variance at :
4.2. Theorem 2 (A1,n: Weak Change)
converges in distribution to
Theoretical mean function:
Theoretical variance function:
The constant C is
The results are illustrated in this Figure 2.
Figure 2.
First row: no change-point and mean , and second row: change-point at and mean .
The figure shows the limit Brownian bridges of each theorem. It clearly shows that under the hypothesis , the empirical mean is almost zero. We have almost a balance of values according to the value of . This validates our condition and the result of Theorem 1.
Under the hypothesis , with the choice of positive , the value of C is negative. This choice affects the values of our estimator and leads to negative values of the limit process. The expression of the mean guarantees this statement. As C is negative, for all , has almost negative values. Therefore, if we calculate the empirical mean, we will obtain a negative value. This figure clearly shows this value.
In these simulations, we considered random variables whose mean changes at .
5. Conclusions
Considering a sequence of absolutely continuous i.i.d random variables , we study the asymptotic properties, in the case of the existence or not of a change point, of the estimators and the sequence of processes based on U-statistics with a kernel of degree more than two. The asymptotic normality of , with the same convergence speed , is established under and (with weak changes). The almost sure convergence of , with the same convergence speed , is also obtained under and . The generalization of our results in the case of multi-change points and the consideration of mixing random variables are interesting prospects for future research.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization, J.R., V.H. and M.H.; methodology, J.R., V.H. and M.H.; software, J.R., V.H. and M.H.; writing—original draft preparation, J.R., V.H. and M.H.; writing—review and editing, J.R., V.H. and M.H.; supervision, V.H. and M.H.; validation, V.H. and M.H. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement
No new data were created or analyzed in this study.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Editor and the Reviewers for their comments which allow them to improve the manuscript.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Appendix A. Proofs of Results
To simplify the notations, denote:
By convention, , is the summation over the set
; is the summation over the set
and
Appendix A.1. Proof of Theorem 1
From the Hoeffding decomposition, we have
Consequently, for , the function is identically equal to zero; then, we have
After some calculations, we obtain
where
and
We then show that converges in probability to zero and converges in distribution towards a Gaussian process as n tends to infinity.
Proposition A1.
Assuming that the conditions of Theorem 1 hold, we have, in probability
Proof.
We need the following lemmas.
Lemma A1.
Assuming that the conditions of Theorem 1 hold, we have
Proof.
We have
This expression is valid for any . As l is finite and condition (9) is satisfied, to simplify the calculations and without loss of generality, we prove it for ,
Hence Lemma A1 is proved. □
Lemma A2.
Assuming that the conditions of Theorem 1 hold, we have, for
Proof.
Hence Lemma A2 is proved. □
Let us return to the proof of the Proposition A1. By Chebychev’s inequality and Lemma A2, we have
for all .
We deduce for with ,
Now, consider the partial sum process if , and . Denote with . Then .
The inequalities (A1) are equivalent to
From Theorem 10.2 of Billingsley [17], we deduce
Finally, we have, in probability,
□
Now, we show that converges in distribution towards a Gaussian process as n tends to infinity. can be written
From Theorem 8.2 of Billingsley [17], we have
We also have, for ,
So by Slutsky’s lemma, we have:
with
This completes the proof of Theorem 1.
Appendix A.2. Proof of Theorem 2
From and , we have
and
Denote
From the proof of Theorem 2.2 of Sen [18], we have
where
with , and defined in (6)–(8) respectively, and is the summation over the set
Now, we have
where
By applying Chebychev inequality to , we have, for all ,
As
the term
converges to a constant as n tends to infinity. Then tends to zero as n tends to infinity.
Hence converges in probability to zero as n tends to infinity.
Now, we show the convergence in distribution of .
From Theorem 8.2 of Billingsley [17], we obtain
We also have
Thus, by Slutsky’s lemma, we have:
with
This completes the proof of Theorem 2.
Appendix A.3. Proof of Theorem 3
Under , we have
From Frees [19], we have the following results:
So we obtain
This completes the proof of Theorem 3.
Appendix A.4. Proof of Theorem 4
For this proof, we need the following lemma.
Lemma A3
(Theorem 1, Sen [20]). Let be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. Let, for ,
and
with , and is the summation of all subsets . Then, converges almost surely to as n tends to infinity.
We have
Define the summation set as follows:
So Equation (A2) can be written
For the case , let us divide the set E into three sets
By convention, if .
We thus obtain the following disjoint union:
and from and , we have
with
where denotes the summation in the set
But we can write
Since, from Lemma A3, the term
for , converges almost surely to zero. We deduce
From some calculations on the right-hand side of (A3), we obtain
From Lemma A3, the term
for , converges almost surely to zero.
We can deduce
From some calculations on the right-hand side of (A4), we obtain
From Lemma A3
converges almost surely to zero. Then, we have
Thus we have for
The proof for is similar to the previous one.
This completes the proof of Theorem 4.
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