Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Design
2.2. Sample
2.3. Instruments
2.4. Procedure
2.5. Data Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis
3.2. Analysis of the Probability of Winning a Point
3.3. Match Analysis
4. Discussion
Limitations and Future Perspectives
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Criteria | Code | Description |
---|---|---|
Service | FS | The point is played with first serve |
SS | The point is played with second serve | |
DF | Double fault | |
Rally lenght | SH | Short rally (0–6 shots). |
MD | Medium rally (7–12 shots). | |
LN | Long rally (13+ shots). | |
Strike zone (see Figure 1) | SZ1 | Zone between the end wall and the service line |
SZ2 | Zone between the service line and three meters before the net | |
SZ3 | Zone between 3 meters in front of the net and the net | |
SZ | Service zone | |
The finish zone (see Figure 1) | PST | Zone of the court parallel to the final stroke (player’s parallel stroke) |
MST | The player hits the ball to the middle of the court | |
CST | Zone of the court crossed to the final stroke (player’s cross-court stroke) | |
SNT | Final shot to the net | |
SSC | Final shot to the opponent’s side of the court directly | |
SEC | Final shot to the end of the court directly | |
Winner | SW | The serving pair wins the point |
RW | The returning pair wins the point | |
Point Ending | SWW | The serving team wins with a winner |
SWFE | The serving team wins with a forced error by the opponent | |
SWUE | The serving team wins with an unforced error by the opponent | |
RWW | The returning team wins with a winner | |
RWFE | The returning team wins with a forced error by the opponent | |
RWUE | The returning team wins with an unforced error by the opponent | |
Final Stroke | ACE | Direct serve |
FHW | Forehand wall outlet | |
BHW | Backhand wall outlet | |
FHG | Forehand groundstroke | |
BHG | Backhand groundstroke | |
FHV | Forehand volley | |
BHV | Backhand volley | |
SM | Smash | |
TR | Tray | |
LB | Lob | |
DS | Drop shot | |
OT | Other (counter-wall, double wall, special stroke...) | |
Time | T | Duration of the point in seconds |
Criterion | Cat. | n | % | χ2 | Criterion | Cat. | n | % | χ2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Service * | FS | 867 | 88.5 | χ2 = 582.252 | Winner | SW | 581 | 59.3 | χ2 = 34.207 |
SS | 112 | 11.4 | p < 0.001 | RW | 399 | 40.7 | p < 0.001 | ||
DF | 1 | 0.1 | Final Stroke | FHW | 117 | 11.9 | χ2 = 593.011 | ||
Rally length | SH | 414 | 42.2 | χ2 = 34.525 | BHW | 54 | 5.5 | p < 0.001 | |
MD | 283 | 28.9 | p < 0.001 | FHG | 55 | 5.6 | |||
LN | 283 | 28.9 | BHG | 41 | 4.2 | ||||
Strike zone * | SZ1 | 220 | 22.4 | χ2 = 56.276 | FHV | 151 | 15.4 | ||
SZ2 | 406 | 41.4 | p < 0.001 | BHV | 132 | 13.5 | |||
SZ3 | 353 | 36.0 | SM | 254 | 25.9 | ||||
SZ | 1 | 0.1 | TR | 107 | 10.9 | ||||
The finish zone | PST | 162 | 16.5 | χ2 = 182.236 | LB | 46 | 4.7 | ||
MST | 124 | 12.7 | p < 0.001 | OT | 6 | 0.6 | |||
CST | 262 | 26.7 | DS | 16 | 1.6 | ||||
SNT | 250 | 25.5 | |||||||
SSC | 73 | 7.4 | Point duration | 1–10 s | 439 | 44.8 | χ2 = 287.698 | ||
SEC | 109 | 11.1 | 11–20 s | 294 | 30.0 | p < 0.001 | |||
Point ending | SWW | 268 | 27.3 | χ2 = 230.113 | 21–30 s | 145 | 14.8 | ||
SWFE | 75 | 7.7 | p < 0.001 | 31+ | 102 | 10.4 | |||
SWUE | 237 | 24.2 | |||||||
RWW | 154 | 15.7 | |||||||
RWFE | 52 | 5.3 | |||||||
RWUE | 194 | 19.8 |
Serving Team | Returning Team | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fr. (%) | Total | Won | Lost | Prob. | Total | Won | Lost | Prob. | |
First service | 88.5 | 867 | 521 | 346 | 60 | 867 | 346 | 521 | 40 |
Second service | 11.5 | 112 | 60 | 52 | 54 | 112 | 52 | 60 | 46 |
First Service–Short rally | 42.9 | 372 | 264 | 108 | 71 | 372 | 108 | 264 | 29 |
First Service–Medium rally | 28.1 | 244 | 139 | 105 | 57 | 244 | 105 | 139 | 43 |
First Service–Long rally | 29.0 | 251 | 118 | 133 | 47 | 251 | 133 | 118 | 53 |
First Service–Short rally–Strike zone 1 | 12.6 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 40 | 79 | 4 | 75 | 5 |
First Service–Short rally–Strike zone 2 | 14.8 | 106 | 78 | 28 | 74 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 36 |
First Service–Short rally–Strike zone 3 | 15.6 | 89 | 73 | 16 | 82 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 74 |
First Service–Medium rally–Strike zone 1 | 5.3 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 31 | 4 | 27 | 13 |
First Service–Medium rally–Strike zone 2 | 13.0 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 56 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 39 |
First Service–Medium rally–Strike zone 3 | 9.8 | 47 | 33 | 14 | 70 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 74 |
First Service–Long rally–Strike zone 1 | 4.4 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 35 |
First Service–Long rally–Strike zone 2 | 13.8 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 60 | 67 | 41 | 26 | 61 |
First Service–Long rally–Strike zone 3 | 10.7 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 72 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 92 |
Pattern | n = 980 | Pattern | n = 980 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fr. | % | Fr. | % | ||||
FS-SH-SW-SWFE | 26 | 7.0 | FS-SH-RW-RWFE | 6 | 1.6 | ||
FS-SH-SW-SWUE | 101 | 27.2 | FS-SH-RW-RWUE | 62 | 16.7 | ||
FS-SH-SW-SWW | 137 | 36.8 | FS-SH-RW-RWW | 40 | 10.8 | ||
FS-MD-SW-SWFE | 25 | 10.2 | FS-MD-RW-RWFE | 14 | 5.7 | ||
FS-MD-SW-SWUE | 67 | 27.5 | FS-MD-RW-RWUE | 53 | 21.7 | ||
FS-MD-SW-SWW | 46 | 18.9 | FS-MD-RW-RWW | 39 | 16.0 | ||
FS-LN-SW-SWFE | 19 | 7.6 | FS-LN-RW-RWFE | 27 | 10.8 | ||
FS-LN-SW-SWUE | 44 | 17.5 | FS-LN-RW-RWUE | 48 | 19.1 | ||
FS-LN-SW-SWW | 55 | 21.9 | FS-LN-RW-RWW | 58 | 23.1 | ||
FS-SH-ST1-SW | 87 (109) | (11.1) | 79.8 | FS-SH-ST1-RW | 22 (109) | (11.1) | 20.2 |
FS-SH-ST1-SEC-SW | 26 | 29.9 | 75 (87) 86.2 | FS-SH-ST1-SEC-RW | 4 | 18.2 | 18 (22) 81.8 |
FS-SH-ST1-SSC-SW | 7 | 8.0 | FS-SH-ST1-SSC-RW | 2 | 9.1 | ||
FS-SH-ST1-SNT-SW | 42 | 48.3 | FS-SH-ST1-SNT-RW | 12 | 54.5 | ||
FS-SH-ST1-PST-SW | 3 | 3.4 | 12 (87) 13.8 | FS-SH-ST1-PST-RW | 1 | 4.5 | 4 (22) 18.2 |
FS-SH-ST1-MST-SW | 4 | 4.6 | FS-SH-ST1-MST-RW | 3 | 13.6 | ||
FS-SH-ST1-CST-SW | 5 | 5.7 | FS-SH-ST1-CST-RW | - | - | ||
FS-SH-ST2-SW | 92 (128) | (13.1) | 71.9 | FS-SH-ST2-RW | 36 (128) | (13.1) | 28.1 |
FS-SH-ST2-SEC-SW | 3 | 3.3 | 14 (92) 15.3 | FS-SH-ST2-SEC-RW | 4 | 11.1 | 28 (36) 77.8 |
FS-SH-ST2-SSC-SW | 3 | 3.3 | FS-SH-ST2-SSC-RW | 5 | 13.9 | ||
FS-SH-ST2-SNT-SW | 8 | 8.7 | FS-SH-ST2-SNT-RW | 19 | 52.8 | ||
FS-SH-ST2-PST-SW | 27 | 29.3 | 78 (92) 84.7 | FS-SH-ST2-PST-RW | 4 | 11.1 | 8 (36) 22.2 |
FS-SH-ST2-MST-SW | 22 | 23.9 | FS-SH-ST2-MST-RW | 1 | 2.8 | ||
FS-SH-ST2-CST-SW | 29 | 31.5 | FS-SH-ST2-CST-RW | 3 | 8.3 | ||
FS-SH-ST3-SW | 85 (135) | (13.8) | 63.0 | FS-SH-ST3-RW | 50 (135) | (13.8) | 37.0 |
FS-SH-ST3-SEC-SW | - | - | 12 (85) 14.1 | FS-SH-ST3-SEC-RW | 4 | 8.0 | 16 (50) 32.0 |
FS-SH-ST3-SSC-SW | 3 | 3.5 | FS-SH-ST3-SSC-RW | 4 | 8.0 | ||
FS-SH-ST3-SNT-SW | 9 | 10.6 | FS-SH-ST3-SNT-RW | 8 | 16.0 | ||
FS-SH-ST3-PST-SW | 24 | 28.2 | 73 (85) 85.8 | FS-SH-ST3-PST-RW | 12 | 24.0 | 34 (50) 68.8 |
FS-SH-ST3-MST-SW | 16 | 18.8 | FS-SH-ST3-MST-RW | 7 | 14.0 | ||
FS-SH-ST3-CST-SW | 33 | 38.8 | FS-SH-ST3-CST-RW | 15 | 30.0 | ||
FS-MD-ST1-SW | 30 (46) | (4.7) | 65.2 | FS-MD-ST1-RW | 16 (46) | (4.7) | 34.8 |
FS-MD-ST1-SEC-SW | 9 | 30.0 | 27 (30) 90.0 | FS-MD-ST1-SEC-RW | 4 | 25.0 | 12 (16) 75.0 |
FS-MD-ST1-SSC-SW | 4 | 13.3 | FS-MD-ST1-SSC-RW | - | - | ||
FS-MD-ST1-SNT-SW | 14 | 46.7 | FS-MD-ST1-SNT-RW | 8 | 50.0 | ||
FS-MD-ST1-PST-SW | 1 | 3.3 | 3 (30) 10.0 | FS-MD-ST1-PST-RW | 1 | 6.3 | 4 (16) 25.0 |
FS-MD-ST1-MST-SW | - | - | FS-MD-ST1-MST-RW | 1 | 6.3 | ||
FS-MD-ST1-CST-SW | 2 | 6.7 | FS-MD-ST1-CST-RW | 2 | 12.5 | ||
FS-MD-ST2-SW | 66 (113) | (11.5) | 58.4 | FS-MD-ST2-RW | 47 (113) | (11.5) | 41.6 |
FS-MD-ST2-SEC-SW | 6 | 9.1 | 31 (66) 47.0 | FS-MD-ST2-SEC-RW | 7 | 14.9 | 27 (47) 57.5 |
FS-MD-ST2-SSC-SW | 6 | 9.1 | FS-MD-ST2-SSC-RW | 6 | 12.8 | ||
FS-MD-ST2-SNT-SW | 19 | 28.8 | FS-MD-ST2-SNT-RW | 14 | 29.8 | ||
FS-MD-ST2-PST-SW | 8 | 12.1 | 35 (66) 53.0 | FS-MD-ST2-PST-RW | 3 | 6.4 | 20 (47) 42.5 |
FS-MD-ST2-MST-SW | 6 | 9.1 | FS-MD-ST2-MST-RW | 6 | 12.8 | ||
FS-MD-ST2-CST-SW | 21 | 31.8 | FS-MD-ST2-CST-RW | 11 | 23.4 | ||
FS-MD-ST3-SW | 43 (85) | (8.7) | 50.6 | FS-MD-ST3-RW | 42 (85) | (8.7) | 49.4 |
FS-MD-ST3-SEC-SW | 2 | 4.7 | 10 (43) 23.4 | FS-MD-ST3-SEC-RW | 3 | 7.1 | 14 (42) 33.3 |
FS-MD-ST3-SSC-SW | 2 | 4.7 | FS-MD-ST3-SSC-RW | 3 | 7.1 | ||
FS-MD-ST3-SNT-SW | 6 | 14.0 | FS-MD-ST3-SNT-RW | 8 | 19.0 | ||
FS-MD-ST3-PST-SW | 8 | 18.6 | 33 (43) 76.6 | FS-MD-ST3-PST-RW | 10 | 23.8 | 28 (42) 66.7 |
FS-MD-ST3-MST-SW | 4 | 9.3 | FS-MD-ST3-MST-RW | 3 | 7.1 | ||
FS-MD-ST3-CST-SW | 21 | 48.8 | FS-MD-ST3-CST-RW | 15 | 35.7 | ||
FS-LN-ST1-SW | 18 (38) | (3.9) | 47.4 | FS-LN-ST1-RW | 20 (38) | (3.9) | 52.6 |
FS-LN-ST1-SEC-SW | 3 | 16.7 | 15 (18) 83.3 | FS-LN-ST1-SEC-RW | 3 | 15.0 | 12 (20) 60.0 |
FS-LN-ST1-SSC-SW | 1 | 5.6 | FS-LN-ST1-SSC-RW | 3 | 15.0 | ||
FS-LN-ST1-SNT-SW | 11 | 61.1 | FS-LN-ST1-SNT-RW | 6 | 30.0 | ||
FS-LN-ST1-PST-SW | 2 | 11.1 | 3 (18) 16.7 | FS-LN-ST1-PST-RW | 2 | 10.0 | 8 (20) 40.0 |
FS-LN-ST1-MST-SW | - | - | FS-LN-ST1-MST-RW | 2 | 10.0 | ||
FS-LN-ST1-CST-SW | 1 | 5.6 | FS-LN-ST1-CST-RW | 4 | 20.0 | ||
FS-LN-ST2-SW | 58 (120) | (12.2) | 48.3 | FS-LN-ST2-RW | 62 (120) | (12.2) | 51.7 |
FS-LN-ST2-SEC-SW | 8 | 13.8 | 26 (58) 44.8 | FS-LN-ST2-SEC-RW | 7 | 11.3 | 21 (62) 33.9 |
FS-LN-ST2-SSC-SW | 4 | 6.9 | FS-LN-ST2-SSC-RW | 6 | 9.7 | ||
FS-LN-ST2-SNT-SW | 14 | 24.1 | FS-LN-ST2-SNT-RW | 8 | 12.9 | ||
FS-LN-ST2-PST-SW | 8 | 13.8 | 32 (58) 55.2 | FS-LN-ST2-PST-RW | 11 | 17.7 | 41 (62) 66.1 |
FS-LN-ST2-MST-SW | 8 | 13.8 | FS-LN-ST2-MST-RW | 8 | 12.9 | ||
FS-LN-ST2-CST-SW | 16 | 27.6 | FS-LN-ST2-CST-RW | 22 | 35.5 | ||
FS-LN-ST3-SW | 42 (93) | (9.5) | 45.2 | FS-LN-ST3-RW | 51 (93) | (9.5) | 54.8 |
FS-LN-ST3-SEC-SW | - | - | 3 (42) 7.2 | FS-LN-ST3-SEC-RW | 3 | 5.9 | 15 (51) 29.4 |
FS-LN-ST3-SSC-SW | 1 | 2.4 | FS-LN-ST3-SSC-RW | 3 | 5.9 | ||
FS-LN-ST3-SNT-SW | 2 | 4.8 | FS-LN-ST3-SNT-RW | 9 | 17.6 | ||
FS-LN-ST3-PST-SW | 15 | 35.7 | 39 (42) 92.8 | FS-LN-ST3-PST-RW | 12 | 23.5 | 36 (51) 70.6 |
FS-LN-ST3-MST-SW | 6 | 14.3 | FS-LN-ST3-MST-RW | 10 | 19.6 | ||
FS-LN-ST3-CST-SW | 18 | 42.9 | FS-LN-ST3-CST-RW | 14 | 27.5 |
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Prieto-Lage, I.; Reguera-López-de-la-Osa, X.; Durán-Rodríguez, N.; Silva-Pinto, A.J.; Argibay-González, J.C.; Gutiérrez-Santiago, A. Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis. Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 6642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14156642
Prieto-Lage I, Reguera-López-de-la-Osa X, Durán-Rodríguez N, Silva-Pinto AJ, Argibay-González JC, Gutiérrez-Santiago A. Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis. Applied Sciences. 2024; 14(15):6642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14156642
Chicago/Turabian StylePrieto-Lage, Iván, Xoana Reguera-López-de-la-Osa, Nicolás Durán-Rodríguez, Antonio José Silva-Pinto, Juan Carlos Argibay-González, and Alfonso Gutiérrez-Santiago. 2024. "Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis" Applied Sciences 14, no. 15: 6642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14156642
APA StylePrieto-Lage, I., Reguera-López-de-la-Osa, X., Durán-Rodríguez, N., Silva-Pinto, A. J., Argibay-González, J. C., & Gutiérrez-Santiago, A. (2024). Assessing the Probability of Winning a Point in Men’s Padel: A Comprehensive Analysis. Applied Sciences, 14(15), 6642. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14156642