Ecological Stress Modeling to Conserve Mangrove Ecosystem Along the Jazan Coast of Saudi Arabia

Mangrove ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and coastal development, making precise ecological stress modeling essential for informing conservation strategies. This study employs AI-based classification techniques to classify mangroves using Landsat 8-SR OLI/TIRS sensors (2023) along the Jazan Coast, identifying a total mangrove area of 19.4 km². The ensemble classifier achieved an F1 score of 95%, an overall accuracy of 93%, and a kappa coefficient of 0.86. Ecological stress was modeled via a generalized additive model (GAM) with key predictors, including trends in the NDVI, NDWIveg (vegetation water content), NDWIow (open water), and LST from 1991 to 2023, which were derived using surface reflectance (SR) products from Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS sensors. The model exhibited strong performance, with an R² of 0.89. Model diagnostics using linear regression (R² = 0.86), a high F-statistic, minimal intercept, and 10-fold cross-validation confirmed the model’s robustness, with a consistent MSE (0.12) and cross-validated R² of 0.86. Moran’s I analysis also indicated significant spatial clustering. Findings indicate that mangroves in non-ravine, mainland coastal areas experience more ecological stress from disruptions in freshwater and sediment supply due to recent developments. In contrast, island coastal areas exhibit low stress levels due to minimal human activity, except in dense canopy regions where significant stress, likely linked to climate change, was observed. These results underscore the need for further investigation into the drivers of this ecological pressure.