The Gains and Losses of Cultivated Land Requisition–Compensation Balance: Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services Using Hubei Province as a Case Study

The cultivated land requisition–compensation balance (CLRCB) policy is an important policy implemented by China to address the reduction in cultivated land and ensure food security. Although this policy has alleviated the loss of cultivated land quantity, it has had complex and diverse impacts on ecosystem services. Taking Hubei Province as the study area, this research explores the impact of the implementation of the CLRCB on ecosystem services and simulates the changes in ecosystem services in the study area in 2030 and the impact of CLRCB on the interactions among various services. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, Hubei Province achieved a balance in the quantity of cultivated land through excessive compensation but failed to reach the goals of balancing cultivated land yield and productivity. (2) During the requisition–compensation process, habitat quality decreased by 501,862, and carbon storage lost 1.3 × 10⁷ t, indicating negative ecological impacts; soil conservation services increased by 184.2 × 10⁶ t, and water production increased by 21.29 × 10⁸ m³. Within the cultivated land requisition–compensation area, habitat quality and carbon storage, as well as soil conservation and water production, exhibited synergistic relationships, while the remaining pairs of ecosystem services showed trade-off relationships. (3) The simulation of ecosystem services in 2030 indicates that soil conservation and water production are highest under the natural development scenario, while habitat quality and carbon storage are highest under the ecological protection scenario, both of which are superior to the urban development scenario. Under the natural development scenario, the trade-off and synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in the cultivated land requisition–compensation area remain unchanged, while these relationships change significantly under the other two scenarios. This study emphasizes that future CLRCB should not only focus on maintaining the quantity of cultivated land but also consider the comprehensive benefits of ecosystem services, in order to achieve sustainable land-use management and ecological conservation.