Abstract
Assessing the environmental consequences of water-system development is essential for integrated water resource management, particularly in intensively modified semi-arid regions. This study examined the relationships between seven major territorial transformations and seven environmental indicators in the Campo de Cartagena system in south-eastern Spain. Evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, technical reports, official datasets, and legislation was synthesized to classify 49 transformation–indicator relationships within a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) matrix. Each relationship was independently assessed according to its strategic category, potential environmental intensity, and level of supporting evidence. The results reveal a marked trade-off between socioeconomic benefits and environmental pressures. Hydraulic development has increased water availability and supported a competitive agricultural economy, whereas irrigated-land expansion, urbanization, industrial development, and associated infrastructure have contributed to water-quality deterioration, habitat alteration, increased runoff, and greater flood exposure. Threats predominated across the matrix and were frequently classified as high intensity, while opportunities were fewer and generally conditional on improved management or ecological restoration. The proposed framework provides a transparent and reproducible basis for identifying priority pressures, distinguishing evidence gaps from environmental significance, and supporting integrated, preventive, and ecologically adapted water and land management in semi-arid regions.