Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region

Wang, Xiangfei; Yan, Tingting; Zhao, Weijun; Hua, Junyi; Zhu, Danhong; Yu, Qing; Lu, Yuefeng; Wu, Yu’ang

doi:10.3390/su18136777

Open AccessArticle

Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region

by

Xiangfei Wang

¹,

Tingting Yan

^1,*,

Weijun Zhao

¹

,

Junyi Hua

²

,

Danhong Zhu

³,

Qing Yu

¹,

Yuefeng Lu

¹

and

Yu’ang Wu

⁴

¹

School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China

²

School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

³

China IPPR International Engineering Co., Ltd., Beijing 100089, China

⁴

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Putra Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur 43400, Malaysia

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2026, 18(13), 6777; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136777

Submission received: 26 May 2026 / Revised: 12 June 2026 / Accepted: 15 June 2026 / Published: 3 July 2026

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessing the Nexus of Climate Change, Water Security, and Human Mobility Towards Sustainability)

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Abstract

Extreme heatwaves threaten public health and economies. Using multi-source data from 1964–2023 and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), we identified heatwaves and, with a generalized linear mixed model and Hurst-based intensity forecasting, assessed drivers and future trends across Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions. (1) Duration, frequency, and the number of events increased by 18.7 days, 21.2 days, and 5.5 events, respectively. During the 2004–2023 period, HWD, HWF, and HWN accelerated, expanding from South Asia/Middle East to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and North Asia. In 1994–2023, centroids shifted west/south: frequency 2.54° W, 1.83° S; and intensity 1.17° W, 2.79° S. (2) Between 2000 and 2019, interaction effects exceeded single effects; dominant drivers shifted from SPEI and wind speed to shortwave radiation and NDVI. (3) Future intensification peaks in East Asia, the Iranian Plateau, and China’s east coast; with H ≥ 0.7, enhanced areas exceed 33% (max 37%), concentrated in Central and western West Asia.

Keywords: heatwaves; driving factors; hurst exponent; belt and road regions

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MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, X.; Yan, T.; Zhao, W.; Hua, J.; Zhu, D.; Yu, Q.; Lu, Y.; Wu, Y. Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region. Sustainability 2026, 18, 6777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136777

AMA Style

Wang X, Yan T, Zhao W, Hua J, Zhu D, Yu Q, Lu Y, Wu Y. Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region. Sustainability. 2026; 18(13):6777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136777

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Xiangfei, Tingting Yan, Weijun Zhao, Junyi Hua, Danhong Zhu, Qing Yu, Yuefeng Lu, and Yu’ang Wu. 2026. "Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region" Sustainability 18, no. 13: 6777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136777

APA Style

Wang, X., Yan, T., Zhao, W., Hua, J., Zhu, D., Yu, Q., Lu, Y., & Wu, Y. (2026). Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region. Sustainability, 18(13), 6777. https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136777

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Past, Present and Future Analysis and Driving Mechanisms of Heatwave Risks in the Belt and Road Region

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