Search Results (1,482)

Glaciers and glacierets of the Kuznetsky Alatau Mountains are distributed at altitudes of 1200–1500 m above sea level, which is not typical for continental areas. The main factor contributing to the persistence of glaciation here is abundant winter precipitation. According to ground surface temperature measurements, the negative annual values are typical for upper glacier boundaries only. Since intensive study during the compilation of the USSR Glacier Inventory (1965–1980), the glaciation of the region has undergone notable changes. To assess the current state of glaciation, Sentinel-2 satellite images were used; contours of the glaciers were traced on the basis of images from 2021 to 2023. In total, 78 glaciers and 57 glacierets were identified. UAV imagery and field inspection were used for validation. The total glaciated area has reduced from 8.5 to 3.1 km², which is 50–75% for selected river basins, with slope morphological types decreasing the most. According to our opinion, the morphological classification requires clarification due to absence of hanging glaciers, described previously. Full article

Based on the panel data of daily meteorological stations and winter wheat yield in Henan Province from 2000 to 2023, this study comprehensively used the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet coherence analysis (WTC), and other methods to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme precipitation and its multi-scale stress mechanism on grain yield. The results showed the following: (1) Extreme precipitation showed the characteristics of ‘frequent fluctuation-gentle trend-strong spatial heterogeneity’, and the maximum daily precipitation in spring (RX1DAY) showed a significant uplift. The increase in rainstorm events (R95p/R99p) in the southern region during the summer is particularly prominent; at the same time, the number of consecutive drought days (CDDs > 15 d) in the middle of autumn was significantly prolonged. It was also found that 2010 is a significant mutation node. Since then, the synergistic effect of ‘increasing drought days–increasing rainstorm frequency’ has begun to appear, and the short-period coherence of super-strong precipitation (R99p) has risen to more than 0.8. (2) The spatial pattern of winter wheat in Henan is characterized by the three-level differentiation of ‘stable core area, sensitive transition zone and shrinking suburban area’, and the stability of winter wheat has improved but there are still local risks. (3) There is a multi-scale stress mechanism of extreme precipitation on winter wheat yield. The long-period (4–8 years) drought and flood events drive the system risk through a 1–2-year lag effect (short-period (0.5–2 years) medium rainstorm intensity directly impacted the production system). This study proposes a ‘sub-scale governance’ strategy, using a 1–2-year lag window to establish a rainstorm warning mechanism, and optimizing drainage facilities for high-risk areas of floods in the south to improve the climate resilience of the agricultural system against the background of climate change. Full article

Accurate estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for understanding hydrothermal cycles and ecosystem functioning in arid regions, where water scarcity governs ecological resilience. To address persistent gaps in ET quantification, this study integrates multi-source remote sensing data, energy balance modeling, and ground-based validation that significantly enhances spatiotemporal ET accuracy in the vulnerable desert steppe ecosystems. The study utilized meteorological data from several national stations and Landsat-8 imagery to process monthly remote sensing images in 2019. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model, chosen for its ability to estimate ET over large areas, was applied to derive modeled daily ET values, which were validated by a large-weighted lysimeter. It was shown that ET varied seasonally, peaking in July at 6.40 mm/day, and reaching a minimum value in winter with 1.83 mm/day in December. ET was significantly higher in southern regions compared to central and northern areas. SEBS-derived ET showed strong agreement with lysimeter measurements, with a mean relative error of 4.30%, which also consistently outperformed MOD16A2 ET products in accuracy. This spatial heterogeneity was driven by greater vegetation coverage and enhanced precipitation in the southeast. The steppe ET showed a strong positive correlation with surface temperatures and vegetation density. Moreover, the precipitation gradients and land use were primary controllers of spatial ET patterns. The process-based SEBS frameworks demonstrate dual functionality as resource-optimized computational platforms while enabling multi-scale quantification of ET spatiotemporal heterogeneity; it was therefore a reliable tool for ecohydrological assessments in an arid steppe, providing critical insights for water resource management and drought monitoring. Full article

Climate-driven hydrological extremes and anthropogenic interventions are increasingly altering streamflow regimes worldwide. While prior studies have explored climate or regulation effects separately, few have integrated multiple teleconnection indices and reservoir chronologies within a cross-basin comparative framework. This study addresses this gap by assessing long-term streamflow nonstationarity and its drivers at two key stations—Khabarovsk on the Amur River and Datong on the Yangtze River—representing distinct hydroclimatic settings. We utilized monthly discharge records, meteorological data, and large-scale climate indices to apply trend analysis, wavelet transform, percentile-based extreme diagnostics, lagged random forest regression, and slope-based attribution. The results show that Khabarovsk experienced an increase in winter baseflow from 513 to 1335 m³/s and a notable reduction in seasonal discharge contrast, primarily driven by temperature and cold-region reservoir regulation. In contrast, Datong displayed increased discharge extremes, with flood discharges increasing by +71.9 m³/s/year, equivalent to approximately 0.12% of the mean flood discharge annually, and low discharges by +24.2 m³/s/year in recent decades, shaped by both climate variability and large-scale hydropower infrastructure. Random forest models identified temperature and precipitation as short-term drivers, with ENSO-related indices showing lagged impacts on streamflow variability. Attribution analysis indicated that Khabarovsk is primarily shaped by cold-region reservoir operations in conjunction with temperature-driven snowmelt dynamics, while Datong reflects a combined influence of both climate variability and regulation. These insights may provide guidance for climate-responsive reservoir scheduling and basin-specific regulation strategies, supporting the development of integrated frameworks for adaptive water management under climate change. Full article

Due to small population size, Population Viability Analysis (PVA) of endangered species often pools all individuals into a single matrix to decrease variation in estimation of transition rates. These pooled populations may mask significant environmental variation among populations, affecting estimates. Using 10 years of population data (2000–2010) on the endangered plant Jacquemontia reclinata in Southeastern Florida, USA, I parameterized a stage-structured matrix model and calculated annual growth rates (lambdas)and elasticity for each year using stochastic matrix models. The metapopulation model incorporating actual dynamics of the two largest populations showed a lower occupancy rate and higher risk of extinction at an earlier time compared to a model that used the average of all natural populations. Analyses were consistent that incorporating population variation versus average dynamics in modeling J. reclinata demography results in more variation and greater extinction risk. Local variation may be due to both weather (including minimum winter temperature and total annual precipitation) and local disturbance dynamics in these urban preserves. Full article

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification. Full article

This study investigates the seasonal dynamics of energy balance, evapotranspiration (ET), and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) in the Dengkou desert ecosystem of Inner Mongolia, China. Using eddy covariance and meteorological data from 2019 to 2022, the research focuses on understanding how these processes interact in one of the world’s most water-limited environments. This arid research area received an average of 109.35 mm per annum precipitation over the studied period, classifying the region as a typical arid ecosystem. Seasonal patterns were observed in daily air temperature, with extremes ranging from −20.6 °C to 29.6 °C. Temporal variations in sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), and net radiation (Rn) peaked during summer season. The average ground heat flux (G) was mostly positive throughout the observation period, indicating heat transmission from atmosphere to soil, but showed negative values during the winter season. The energy balance ratio for the studied period was in the range of 0.61 to 0.80, indicating challenges in achieving energy closure and ecological shifts. ET exhibited two annual peaks influenced by vegetation growth and climate change, with annual ET exceeding annual precipitation, except in 2021. Net ecosystem production (NEP) from 2019 to 2020 revealed that the Dengkou desert were a net source of carbon, indicating the carbon loss from the ecosystem. In 2021, the Dengkou ecosystem shifted to become a net carbon sink, effectively sequestrating carbon. However, this was sharply reversed in 2022, resulting in a significant net release of carbon. The study findings highlight the complex interactions between energy balance components, ET, and NEP in desert ecosystems, providing insights into sustainable water management and carbon neutrality strategies in arid regions under climate change effect. Full article

Root phenology significantly influences ecosystem processes yet remains poorly characterized across biomes. This study synthesized data from 59 studies spanning Arctic to tropical ecosystems to identify woody plants root phenological patterns and their environmental drivers. The analysis revealed distinct climate-specific patterns. Arctic regions had a short growing season with remarkably low temperature threshold for initiation of root growth (0.5–1 °C). Temperate forests displayed pronounced spring-summer growth patterns with root growth initiation occurring at 1–9 °C. Mediterranean ecosystems showed bimodal patterns optimized around moisture availability, and tropical regions demonstrate seasonality primarily driven by precipitation. Root-shoot coordination varies predictably across biomes, with humid continental ecosystems showing the highest synchronous above- and belowground activity (57%), temperate regions exhibiting leaf-before-root emergence (55%), and Mediterranean regions consistently showing root-before-leaf patterns (100%). Winter root growth is more widespread than previously recognized (35% of studies), primarily in tropical and Mediterranean regions. Temperature thresholds for phenological transitions vary with climate region, suggesting adaptations to environmental conditions. These findings provide a critical, region-specific framework for improving models of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change. While our synthesis clarifies distinct phenological strategies, its conclusions are drawn from data focused primarily on Northern Hemisphere woody plants, highlighting significant geographic gaps in our current understanding. Bridging these knowledge gaps is essential for accurately forecasting how belowground dynamics will influence global carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem resilience under changing climatic regimes. Full article

A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly understood. This study employed a three-dimensional MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model to assess climate change impacts on water budget components under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020–2099. Model calibration yielded RMSE values between 0.25 and 0.51 m, indicating satisfactory performance. Simulations revealed that lateral inflows from upstream and side-valley alluvial deposits contribute over 84% of total inflow, while direct recharge from precipitation (averaging 120 mm/year, 24.7% of annual rainfall) and riverbed leakage together account for only 11.4%. Recharge occurs predominantly from November to April, with no recharge from June to August. Under future scenarios, winter recharge may increase by up to 22.7%, while summer recharge could decline by up to 100%. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease by 7.3% to 58.3% compared to 2010–2020, indicating the aquifer’s vulnerability to prolonged dry periods. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and long-term monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use under changing climate conditions. Full article

Quercus faginea Lam., a winter-deciduous oak native to the Iberian Peninsula, typically grows under a Mediterranean climate. To identify the main drivers influencing radial wood increment, we analyzed the climatic signals in tree-ring width and wood anatomical traits using increment cores. Winter conditions influenced both latewood width and earlywood vessel size in the first row. Latewood was positively correlated with precipitation and temperature, with the long-term positive effect of winter water supply supported by SPEI. In contrast, vessel size showed negative correlations, also reflecting a long-term negative effect of winter precipitation. Consequently, conditions that enhanced latewood width and overall tree-ring growth appear to be associated with the formation of smaller earlywood vessels. Although ample winter precipitation replenishes soil water reserves and supports prolonged wood formation, it may also induce anaerobic soil conditions that promote root fermentation, depleting carbohydrates needed for cell turgor and expansion, and ultimately regulating earlywood vessel size. This physiological decoupling may help explain the lack of a significant correlation between latewood width and earlywood vessel size, underscoring their independent responses to environmental influences. Our findings highlighted the complex interplay between various climatic conditions affecting Q. faginea, with implications for understanding its adaptive capacity in changing climates. Full article

Massachusetts Bay in the northeastern United States is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to reduced buffering capacity from significant freshwater inputs. We hypothesize that acidification varies across temporal and spatial scales, with short-term variability driven by seasonal biological respiration, precipitation–evaporation balance, and river discharge, and long-term changes linked to global warming and river flux shifts. These patterns arise from complex nonlinear interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes. To investigate OA variability, we applied the Northeast Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Model (NeBEM), a fully coupled three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical system, to Massachusetts Bay and Boston Harbor. Numerical simulation was performed for 2016. Assimilating satellite-derived sea surface temperature and sea surface height improved NeBEM’s ability to reproduce observed seasonal and spatial variability in stratification, mixing, and circulation. The model accurately simulated seasonal changes in nutrients, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and pH. The model results suggest that nearshore areas were consistently more susceptible to OA, especially during winter and spring. Mechanistic analysis revealed contrasting processes between shallow inner and deeper outer bay waters. In the inner bay, partial pressure of pCO₂ (pCO₂) and aragonite saturation (Ω_a) were influenced by sea temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and total alkalinity (TA). TA variability was driven by nitrification and denitrification, while DIC was shaped by advection and net community production (NCP). In the outer bay, pCO₂ was controlled by temperature and DIC, and Ω_a was primarily determined by DIC variability. TA changes were linked to NCP and nitrification–denitrification, with DIC also influenced by air–sea gas exchange. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) crucially regulates water storage dynamics and is an essential component of the terrestrial water cycle. Understanding ET dynamics is fundamental for sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions facing increasing drought risks under climate change. In regions like southwestern China, where extreme drought events are prevalent due to complex terrain and climate warming, ET becomes a key factor in understanding water availability and drought dynamics. Using the SWAT model, this study investigates ET dynamics and influencing factors in the Jizi Basin, Yunnan Province, a small basin with over 71% forest coverage. The model calibration and validation results demonstrated a high degree of consistency with observed discharge data and ERA5, confirming its reliability. The results show that the annual average ET in the Jizi Basin is 573.96 mm, with significant seasonal variations. ET in summer typically ranges from 70 to 100 mm/month, while in winter, it drops to around 20 mm/month. Spring ET exhibits the highest variability, coinciding with the occurrence of extreme hydrological events such as droughts. The monthly anomalies of ET effectively reproduce the spring and early summer 2019 drought event. Notably, ET variation exhibits significant uncertainty under scenarios of +1 °C temperature and −20% precipitation. Furthermore, although land use changes had relatively small effects on overall ET, they played crucial roles in promoting groundwater recharge through enhanced percolation, especially forest cover. The study highlights that, in addition to climate and land use, soil moisture and groundwater conditions are vital in modulating ET and drought occurrence. The findings offer insights into the hydrological processes of small forested basins in southwestern China and provide important support for sustainable water resource management and effective climate adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of increasing drought vulnerability. Full article

Given that the Sunkoshi River watershed (located in the southern foot of the Himalayas) is sensitive to climate change and its mountain ecosystem provides important services, we aim to evaluate its spatial and temporal variation patterns of vegetation, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), during 2000–2021 and identify the dominant driving factors of vegetation change. Based on the NDVI dataset (MOD13A1), we used the simple linear trend model, seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method, and Mann–Kendall test to investigate the spatiotemporal variation features of NDVI during 2000–2021 on multiple scales (annual, seasonal, monthly). We used the partial correlation coefficient (PCC) to quantify the response of the NDVI to land surface temperature (LST), precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture. The results indicate that the annual NDVI in 52.6% of the study area (with elevation of 1–3 km) increased significantly, while 0.9% of the study area (due to urbanization) degraded significantly during 2000–2021. Daytime LST dominates NDVI changes on spring, summer, and winter scales, while precipitation, soil moisture, and nighttime LST are the primary impact factors on annual NDVI changes. After removing the influence of soil moisture, the contributions of climate factors to NDVI change are enhanced. Precipitation shows a 3-month lag effect and a 5-month cumulative effect on the NDVI; both daytime LST and soil moisture have a 4-month lag effect on the NDVI; and humidity exhibits a 2-month cumulative effect on the NDVI. Overall, the study area turned green during 2000–2021. The dominant driving factors of NDVI change may vary on different time scales. The findings will be beneficial for climate change impact assessment on the regional eco-environment, and for integrated watershed management. Full article

Understanding future changes in crop phenology and climate suitability is essential for sustaining winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain under climate change. This study integrates bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections, the DSSAT CERES-Wheat crop model, and Random Forest analysis to assess spatiotemporal shifts in winter wheat phenology and climate suitability. The assessment focuses on the mid- (2041–2060) and late 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate that the vegetative and whole growing periods (VGP and WGP) will be extended in the mid-century but shorten by the late century. In contrast, the reproductive growing period (RGP) will be slightly reduced in the mid-century and extended under high emissions in the late century. Temperature suitability is projected to increase during the VGP and WGP but decline during the RGP. Precipitation suitability generally improves, except for a decrease during the reproductive period south of 32° N. Solar radiation suitability is expected to decline across all stages. Temperature is identified as the primary driver of phenological changes, with solar radiation and precipitation playing increasingly important roles in the mid- and late 21st century, respectively. Adaptive strategies, including the adoption of heat-tolerant varieties, longer reproductive periods, and earlier sowing, are recommended to enhance yield stability under future climate conditions. Full article

This study provides an assessment of BTEX compounds—benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene isomers—in urban precipitation collected in the city of Novi Sad, Republic of Serbia, during autumn and winter 2024, analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). By combining chemical analysis with meteorological observations and HYSPLIT backward trajectory modeling, the study considers the mechanisms of BTEX removal from the atmosphere via wet scavenging and highlights the role of local weather conditions and long-range atmospheric transport in pollutant concentrations. During the early observation period (September to late November), average concentrations were 0.45 µg/L benzene, 3.45 µg/L ethylbenzene, 4.0 µg/L p-xylene, 2.31 µg/L o-xylene, and 1.32 µg/L toluene. These values sharply dropped to near-zero levels in December for benzene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes, while toluene persisted at 1.12 µg/L. A pronounced toluene spike exceeding 6 µg/L on 28 November was likely driven by transboundary air mass transport from Central Europe, as confirmed by trajectory modeling. The environmental risks posed by BTEX deposition, especially from toluene and xylenes, underline the need for regulatory frameworks to include precipitation as a pathway for pollutant deposition. It should be clarified that the identified risk primarily concerns aquatic organisms, due to the potential for BTEX infiltration into surface waters and subsequent ecotoxicological impacts. Incorporating such monitoring into EU policies can improve protection of air, water, and ecosystems. Full article