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Climate Change Uncertainties in Integrated Water Resources Management
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Climate Change Uncertainties in Integrated Water Resources Management

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2026 | Viewed by 4949

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Thomas Ramsey

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Guest Editor
College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China
Interests: transboundary river cooperation; ecological and environmental policy; water resources management; water conflict resolution; water treaties
Dr. Liang Yuan

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Guest Editor
College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China
Interests: water demand and supply; water resources management; water resources cooperation; water resources conflict; resource and environmental policy
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

With the increase in climate change around the world, the shifting of populations in water-stressed regions, and continued economic development, there is a rapid depletion of surface water and aquifer systems to compensate for the reduction of available freshwater supplies in transboundary river basins. For IWRM, it is critical to balance the increased demand in water-stressed river basins to ensure the sustainability of the available freshwater supplies for all stakeholders sharing a river basin in times of uncertainty. This article aims to show how climate change uncertainty affects IWRM planning for sustainability in transboundary river basins. Since there are multiple interacting variables in play at any specific time, such as economic growth, societal demands, natural systems alterations, and policy decisions, the challenge becomes how to construct a successful IWRM set of policies to effectively solve climate change dilemmas while providing water sustainability for all stakeholders sharing a transboundary water basin in order to prevent possible conflict due to water shortages.

Dr. Thomas Ramsey
Dr. Liang Yuan
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • integrated water resources management (IWRM)
  • transboundary rivers
  • uncertainty
  • sustainability
  • water conflict

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

38 pages, 16562 KB  
Article
Assessment of Changes in Groundwater Resources Due to Climate Change for the Purpose of Sustainable Water Management in Hungary
by János Szanyi, Hawkar Ali Abdulhaq, Róbert Hegyi, Tamás Gál, Éva Szabó, László Lossos and Emese Tóth
Water 2026, 18(6), 724; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18060724 - 19 Mar 2026
Viewed by 619
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly affecting groundwater resources in the Carpathian Basin, while rising temperatures are likely to increase irrigation demand and pressure on aquifers. We assessed climate- and pumping-driven impacts on the Nyírség recharge–discharge system (north-eastern Hungary) by combining shallow groundwater monitoring (1970–2022) [...] Read more.
Climate change is increasingly affecting groundwater resources in the Carpathian Basin, while rising temperatures are likely to increase irrigation demand and pressure on aquifers. We assessed climate- and pumping-driven impacts on the Nyírség recharge–discharge system (north-eastern Hungary) by combining shallow groundwater monitoring (1970–2022) with hydroclimate indicators from CHIRPS precipitation and ERA5-Land air temperature and snow depth (1981–2024). Using these datasets, we developed and calibrated a MODFLOW groundwater-flow model for representative wet (2010) and dry (2022) conditions, incorporating permitted abstraction and scenario-based estimates of unregistered pumping. We then ran scenario simulations to evaluate mid-century (2050) conditions and managed aquifer recharge (MAR) options. Precipitation exhibits strong interannual variability, but the region shows marked warming and a pronounced decline in snow storage, implying reduced cold-season buffering and higher evaporative demand. Simulations reproduce the observed post-2010 decline in shallow groundwater, with the largest decreases in higher-elevation recharge areas, whereas increased pumping mainly intensifies localized drawdown near major well fields. Scenario results indicate that climate-driven reductions in recharge dominate basin-scale declines by 2050, while MAR provides primarily local benefits; direct subsurface injection performs best among the tested options. These findings support practical groundwater management by prioritizing measurable and enforceable abstraction (including unregistered withdrawals), demand-side irrigation efficiency and adaptive caps in recharge areas, and targeted subsurface MAR where source water and infrastructure are available. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Uncertainties in Integrated Water Resources Management)
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19 pages, 6352 KB  
Article
Integrated Spatio-Temporal Drought Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Iran
by Pejvak Rastgoo, Atefeh Torkaman Pary, Ayoub Moradi, Dirk Zeuss and Temesgen Alemayehu Abera
Water 2026, 18(3), 315; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030315 - 27 Jan 2026
Viewed by 700
Abstract
Arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to drought and depend heavily on rainfed agriculture. To minimize the impact of drought, a transition from crisis management to risk management is necessary, which requires a comprehensive risk assessment that accounts for not only drought [...] Read more.
Arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to drought and depend heavily on rainfed agriculture. To minimize the impact of drought, a transition from crisis management to risk management is necessary, which requires a comprehensive risk assessment that accounts for not only drought hazard but also drought vulnerability and population exposure. However, integrated studies that account for socio-economic, agricultural, demographic, and climate factors are currently lacking in Iran. The objective of this study is to comprehensively assess the spatio-temporal changes in drought risk from 2000 to 2019 across Iran. We used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and multiple socio-economic and demographic data to compute drought risk. In particular, we used the SPEI to map drought hazard, an analytical hierarchical process method to assess drought vulnerability, and population density data to compute population exposure. Drought risk increased in 57% of the area of Iran, mainly in the northwest, west, and central regions, at a rate of up to 10% per year. In 21% of the area of Iran, drought risk declined by up to 10% per year, predominantly in the northern and southern regions of the Alborz Mountains, encompassing the provinces of Tehran, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Khorasan Razavi. Our results show that the spatial patterns of drought risk vary across Iran and are modulated by the interaction between climatic and socio-economic factors. The results of this study provide useful information for drought risk management and intervention in Iran. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Uncertainties in Integrated Water Resources Management)
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23 pages, 4456 KB  
Article
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge and Storage Using MODFLOW in the Akhangaran River Alluvial Aquifer, Eastern Uzbekistan
by Azam Kadirkhodjaev, Dmitriy Andreev, Botir Akramov, Botirjon Abdullaev, Zilola Abdujalilova, Zulkhumar Umarova, Dilfuza Nazipova, Izzatullo Ruzimov, Shakhriyor Toshev, Erkin Anorboev, Nodirjon Rakhimov, Farrukh Mamirov, Inessa Gracheva and Samrit Luoma
Water 2025, 17(15), 2291; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152291 - 1 Aug 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3281
Abstract
A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly [...] Read more.
A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly understood. This study employed a three-dimensional MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model to assess climate change impacts on water budget components under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020–2099. Model calibration yielded RMSE values between 0.25 and 0.51 m, indicating satisfactory performance. Simulations revealed that lateral inflows from upstream and side-valley alluvial deposits contribute over 84% of total inflow, while direct recharge from precipitation (averaging 120 mm/year, 24.7% of annual rainfall) and riverbed leakage together account for only 11.4%. Recharge occurs predominantly from November to April, with no recharge from June to August. Under future scenarios, winter recharge may increase by up to 22.7%, while summer recharge could decline by up to 100%. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease by 7.3% to 58.3% compared to 2010–2020, indicating the aquifer’s vulnerability to prolonged dry periods. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and long-term monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use under changing climate conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Uncertainties in Integrated Water Resources Management)
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