Search Results (373)

Understanding the price dynamics of oil futures is crucial for advancing green finance strategies and supporting sustainable energy transitions. This study investigates the macroeconomic and energy market determinants of oil futures prices through Granger causality, cointegration analysis, and the error correction model, using daily data. It focuses on the influence of economic development levels, exchange rate fluctuations, and inter-energy price linkages. The empirical findings indicate that (1) oil futures prices exhibit strong correlations with other energy prices, macroeconomic factors, and exchange rate variables; (2) economic development significantly affects oil futures prices, while exchange rate impacts are statistically insignificant based on the daily data analyzed; (3) there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between oil futures prices and variables representing economic activity, exchange rates, and energy market trends; (4) oil futures prices exhibit significant short-term dynamics while adjusting steadily toward a long-run equilibrium driven by macroeconomic and energy market fundamentals. By enhancing the accuracy of oil futures price forecasting, this study offers practical insights for managing financial risks associated with fossil energy markets and contributes to the formulation of low-carbon investment strategies. The findings provide a valuable reference for integrating energy pricing models into sustainable finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions. Full article

Background: The growth of parcel volumes in urban areas, largely driven by e-commerce, has increased the complexity of pickup and delivery operations. To meet demands for cost efficiency, flexibility, and sustainability, CEP (Courier, Express, and Parcel) operators increasingly outsource segments of their last-mile networks. Methods: This study proposes a novel multidimensional cost model for outsourcing, integrating five key variables: transport unit type (parcel/pallet), service phase (pickup/delivery), vehicle category, powertrain type, and delivery point type. The model applies correction coefficients based on internal operational costs, further adjusted for location and service quality using a bonus/malus mechanism. Results: Each cost component is calculated independently, enabling full transparency and route-level cost tracking. A real-world case study was conducted using operational data from a CEP operator in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model demonstrated improved accuracy and fairness in cost allocation, with measurable savings of up to 7% compared to existing fixed-price models. Conclusions: The proposed model supports data-driven outsourcing decisions, allows tailored cost structuring based on operational realities, and aligns with sustainable last-mile delivery strategies. It offers a scalable and adaptable tool for CEP operators seeking to enhance cost control and service efficiency in complex urban environments. Full article

Beef fat injection technology, used to enhance the perceived quality of lower-grade meat, often results in artificially marbled beef that mimics the visual traits of Wagyu, characterized by dense fat distribution. This practice, driven by the high cost of Wagyu and the affordability of fat-injected beef, has led to the proliferation of mislabeled “Wagyu-grade” products sold at premium prices, posing potential food safety risks such as allergen exposure or consumption of unverified additives, which can adversely affect consumer health. Addressing this, this study introduces a smart sensing system integrated with handheld mobile devices, enabling consumers to capture beef images during purchase for real-time health-focused assessment. The system analyzes surface texture and color, transmitting data to a server for classification to determine if the beef is artificially marbled, thus supporting informed dietary choices and reducing health risks. Images are processed by applying a region of interest (ROI) mask to remove background noise, followed by partitioning into grid blocks. Local binary pattern (LBP) texture features and RGB color features are extracted from these blocks to characterize surface properties of three beef types (Wagyu, regular, and fat-injected). A support vector machine (SVM) model classifies the blocks, with the final image classification determined via majority voting. Experimental results reveal that the system achieves a recall rate of 95.00% for fat-injected beef, a misjudgment rate of 1.67% for non-fat-injected beef, a correct classification rate (CR) of 93.89%, and an F1-score of 95.80%, demonstrating its potential as a human-centered healthcare tool for ensuring food safety and transparency. Full article

Accurate carbon market price prediction is crucial for promoting a low-carbon economy and sustainable engineering. Traditional models often face challenges in effectively capturing the multifractality inherent in carbon market prices. Inspired by the self-similarity and scale invariance inherent in fractal structures, this study proposes a novel multifractal-aware model, MF-Transformer-DEC, for carbon market price prediction. The multi-scale convolution (MSC) module employs multi-layer dilated convolutions constrained by shared convolution kernel weights to construct a scale-invariant convolutional network. By projecting and reconstructing time series data within a multi-scale fractal space, MSC enhances the model’s ability to adapt to complex nonlinear fluctuations while significantly suppressing noise interference. The fractal attention (FA) module calculates similarity matrices within a multi-scale feature space through multi-head attention, adaptively integrating multifractal market dynamics and implicit associations. The dynamic error correction (DEC) module models error commonality through variational autoencoder (VAE), and uncertainty-guided dynamic weighting achieves robust error correction. The proposed model achieved an average R² of 0.9777 and 0.9942 for 7-step ahead predictions on the Shanghai and Guangdong carbon price datasets, respectively. This study pioneers the interdisciplinary integration of fractal theory and artificial intelligence methods for complex engineering analysis, enhancing the accuracy of carbon market price prediction. The proposed technical pathway of “multi-scale deconstruction and similarity mining” offers a valuable reference for AI-driven fractal modeling. Full article

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). We show that global geopolitical risk has both detriments and benefits sides—it is a threat and an opportunity for monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Interacted local projections (LPs) reveal short–medium-term volatility or dampening effects, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty might weaken the immediate impact of monetary policy on output and prices. In uncertain environments (e.g., high geopolitical risk), economic agents—households and businesses—may adopt a wait-and-see approach. They delay consumption and investment decisions, which could initially mute the impact of monetary policy. Agents may delay their responses until they gain more information about geopolitical developments. Once clarity emerges, they may adjust their behavior, aligning with the long-run effects observed in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, we identify an exacerbating investor sentiment following tightening monetary policy, during global and local geopolitical episodes. The impact is even more pronounced under conditions of high domestic weakness. Evidence is extracted through a novel composite index that we construct using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our results have implications for the Central Bank’s monetary policy conduct and communication practices. Full article

Carbon market price prediction is critical for stabilizing markets and advancing low-carbon transitions, where capturing multifractal dynamics is essential. Traditional models often neglect the inherent long-term memory and nonlinear dependencies of carbon price series. To tackle the issues of nonlinear dynamics, non-stationary characteristics, and inadequate suppression of modal aliasing in existing models, this study proposes an integrated prediction framework based on the coupling of gradient-sensitive time-series adversarial training and dynamic residual correction. A novel gradient significance-driven local adversarial training strategy enhances immunity to volatility through time step-specific perturbations while preserving structural integrity. The GSLAN-BiLSTM architecture dynamically recalibrates historical–current information fusion via memory-guided attention gating, mitigating prediction lag during abrupt price shifts. A “decomposition–prediction–correction” residual compensation system further decomposes base model errors via wavelet packet decomposition (WPD), with ARIMA-driven dynamic weighting enabling bias correction. Empirical validation using China’s carbon market high-frequency data demonstrates superior performance across key metrics. This framework extends beyond advancing carbon price forecasting by successfully generalizing its “multiscale decomposition, adversarial robustness enhancement, and residual dynamic compensation” paradigm to complex financial time-series prediction. Full article

Traditional price prediction of construction material concrete often adopts macroeconomic indicators as independent variables. However, since there is often a closer relationship between the raw materials of construction concrete and the production of construction materials, the price prediction of construction concrete based on raw material prices can more directly ensure the prediction accuracy. Therefore, this study proposes a Double-Branch Physics-Informed Neural Network (DB-PINN) model based on both macroeconomic indicators and raw material price factors for the construction concrete price prediction. In particular, this model utilizes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the baseline algorithm and incorporates physical constraints, such as a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to modify the loss function. To improve the prediction accuracy of the DB-PINN model, a feature analysis of the effect of the raw material price factors on the construction concrete price is conducted. Results showed that the proposed DB-PINN model has high accuracy in concrete price prediction. Further, to explore the specific ways in which macroeconomic indicators affect the concrete price prediction, a Marginal Effect Analysis (MEA) is conducted. Moreover, a comparative analysis using a traditional ANN model is conducted to verify the efficiency of the DB-PINN model, and a parameter sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal the impact of each raw material price factor and macroeconomic indicator on the construction concrete price. This study incorporates the introduction of raw material prices as input parameters for construction concrete price prediction, which facilitates the development of urban construction concrete price management in the pre-project phase. Full article

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impacts of international trade on consumption-based carbon emissions (CBEs) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (USA) from 1990 to 2018. The analysis uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) methodologies to capture short- and long-run trade emissions dynamics, with economic growth, oil prices, financial development and industry value addition as control variables. The findings reveal that exports reduce CBEs, while imports increase them, across both economies in the long and short run. The asymmetric analysis highlights that a fall in exports increases CBEs in the USA but reduces them in the PRC due to differences in supply chain flexibility. The PRC demonstrates larger coefficients for trade variables, reflecting its reliance on energy-intensive imports and rapid trade growth. The error correction term shows that the PRC takes 2.64 times longer than the USA to return to equilibrium after short-run shocks, reflecting systemic rigidity. These findings challenge the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, showing that economic growth intensifies CBEs. Robustness checks confirm the results, highlighting the need for tailored policies, including carbon border adjustments, renewable energy integration and CBE-based accounting frameworks. Full article

This paper examines the relationship between dependence and independence alternatives in general stochastic processes and explores the duality between the true (yet unknown) stochastic process and the functional representation that fits the observed data. We demonstrate that the solution depends on its historic realizations, challenging existing theoretical frameworks that assume independence between the solution and the history of the true process. Under orthogonality conditions, we investigate parameter spaces within data-generating processes and establish conditions under which data exhibit mean-reverting, random, cyclical, history-dependent, or explosive behaviors. We validate our theoretical framework through empirical analysis of an extensive dataset comprising daily prices from the S&P500, 10-year US Treasury bonds, the EUR/USD exchange rate, Brent oil, and Bitcoin from 1 January 2002 to 1 February 2024. Our out-of-sample predictions, covering the period from 17 February 2019 to 1 February 2024, demonstrate the model’s exceptional forecasting capability, yielding correct predictions with between 73% and 92% accuracy, significantly outperforming naïve and moving average models, which only achieved 47% to 54% accuracy. Full article

With the increase in prices of correctives and fertilizers, the investigation of the interactions between plants and plant growth-promoting bacteria shows an economically viable and sustainable alternative, and the use of Azospirillum brasilense has shown an increase in efficiency of nitrogen use and increased pasture yield. This study, conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, aimed to evaluate the effect of different inoculation techniques of Azospirillum brasilense associated with the dose of nitrogen topdressing on the productive performance of Brachiaria brizantha cv. Paiaguás is a grass species commonly cultivated in this region. The experiment was conducted in the Experimental Forage Sector of the Federal Rural University of the Amazon, Parauapebas city, Brazil. The experimental design was a randomized block design in a 3 × 3 factorial arrangement, with three inoculation methods (control, seed, and foliar) and three nitrogen fertilization doses (0, 75, and 150 kg ha⁻¹ of N), with four replicates. An effect was observed in interaction between inoculation and nitrogen fertilization (p ≤ 0.05) for the variables total forage green mass, total forage dry mass, dry mass of leaf blade, dry stem mass, and number of tillers m⁻². The dose of 150 kg ha⁻¹ of N promoted a positive effect of N on the total forage dry mass and LAI (leaf area index). Inoculation with Azospirillum brasilense, especially foliar application, efficiently increased Brachiaria brizantha cv. Paiaguás yield, potentially reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers, promotes greater sustainability in pasture management. Full article

The configuration of energy storage systems in offshore wind farms can effectively suppress fluctuations in wind power and enhance the stability of the power grid. However, the economic balance between the cost of energy storage systems and the fluctuations in wind power remains an urgent challenge to be addressed, especially against the backdrop of widespread spot trading in the electricity market. How to achieve effective wind power stabilization at the lowest cost has become a key issue. This paper proposes three different energy storage configuration strategies and adopts the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to conduct multi-objective optimization of the system. NSGA-II performed stably in dual-objective scenarios and effectively balanced the relationship between the investment cost of the energy storage system and power fluctuations through the explicit elite strategy. Furthermore, this study analyzed the correlation between the rated power and rated capacity of the energy storage system and the battery life, and corrected the battery life of the Pareto frontier solution obtained by NSGA-II. The research results show that when only considering the investment cost of the energy storage, the optimal configuration was a rated power of 4 MW and a rated capacity of 28 MWh, which could better balance the investment economy and power fluctuation. When further considering the participation of energy storage systems in the electricity spot market, the economic efficiency of the energy storage systems could be significantly improved through the fixed-period electricity price arbitrage method. At this point, the optimal configuration was a rated power of 8 MW and a rated capacity of 37 MWh. The corresponding project investment cost was CNY 242.77 million, and the annual fluctuation rate of the wind power output decreased to 17.84%. Full article

To achieve low-carbon economic dispatch and collaborative optimization of carbon capture efficiency in power systems, this paper proposes a flexible carbon capture power plant and generalized energy storage collaborative operation model under a dynamic carbon quota mechanism. First, adjustable carbon capture devices are integrated into high-emission thermal power units to construct carbon–electricity coupled operation modules, enabling a dynamic reduction of carbon emission intensity and enhancing low-carbon performance. Second, a time-varying carbon quota allocation mechanism and a dynamic correction model for carbon emission factors are designed to improve the regulation capability of carbon capture units during peak demand periods. Furthermore, pumped storage systems and price-guided demand response are integrated to form a generalized energy storage system, establishing a “source–load–storage” coordinated peak-shaving framework that alleviates the regulation burden on carbon capture units. Finally, a multi-timescale optimization scheduling model is developed and solved using the GUROBI algorithm to ensure the economic efficiency and operational synergy of system resources. Simulation results demonstrate that, compared with the traditional static quota mode, the proposed dynamic carbon quota mechanism reduces wind curtailment cost by 9.6%, the loss of load cost by 48.8%, and carbon emission cost by 15%. Moreover, the inclusion of generalized energy storage—including pumped storage and demand response—further decreases coal consumption cost by 9% and carbon emission cost by 17%, validating the effectiveness of the proposed approach in achieving both economic and environmental benefits. Full article

Inspired by call centers, this paper models them as a constant retrial queue, with feedback and delayed vacations to balance high efficiency and low cost for service agents. After completing the service, the server randomly waits for an idle period. If customers arrive during this period, the service is provided immediately, otherwise, the server will take a vacation. We first derive steady-state probabilities and key performance measures. Then, the system cost is modeled. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA) and Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) are applied to obtain the minimum system cost, respectively. To verify the correctness of the theoretical results of the system model, we simulate the model using Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the probabilities of different server states and the expected number of customers in the system, and then compare them with the theoretical values. At the same time, the sensitivity of the performance measures obtained by Monte Carlo simulation to the system parameters is also analyzed. Finally, customer behavior is analyzed, and equilibrium and socially optimal arrival rates are derived. In addition, the efficiency of the system is evaluated by examining efficiency indicators such as throughput and price of anarchy. Full article

Willingness to pay (WTP) measurements often contain a hypothetical bias (HB) when participants’ responses result from ‘fictitious’ survey scenarios rather than actual purchasing behavior or field studies. This discrepancy usually leads to inaccurate WTP values, which affect pricing strategies. Our quantitative online survey with German consumers (N = 215) examines the HB of WTP for different mobile phone plans as an example of a widespread consumer good. The aim is to focus on the correlation between hypothetical and actual WTP and the influence of socio-demographic factors on the HB. We used the Certainty Approach to correct hypothetical WTP data to reflect actual payment behavior. The findings show that hypothetical WTP values are generally higher than current expenditure, which demonstrates that HB significantly affects WTP measurements in the context of mobile communications products. The applied Certainty Approach successfully reduced this discrepancy. We found a moderate negative correlation between actual WTP and the extent of the HB, indicating that higher actual WTP is associated with lower bias. Moreover, socio-demographic factors such as age and income do not significantly influence the HB. This study suggests pricing strategies should consider HB-adjusted WTP values to avoid management decisions based on inflated hypothetical data. Full article

This article describes a robust Gaussian Prior process state space modeling (GPSSM) approach to assess the impact of an intervention in a time series. Numerous applications can benefit from this approach. Examples include: (1) time series could be the stock price of a company and the intervention could be the acquisition of another company; (2) the time series under concern could be the noise coming out of an engine, and the intervention could be a corrective step taken to reduce the noise; (3) the time series could be the number of visits to a web service, and the intervention is changes done to the user interface; and so on. The approach we describe in this article applies to any times series and intervention combination. It is well known that Gaussian process (GP) prior models provide flexibility by placing a non-parametric prior on the functional form of the model. While GPSSMs enable us to model a time series in a state space framework by placing a Gaussian Process (GP) prior over the state transition function, probabilistic recurrent state space models (PRSSM) employ variational approximations for handling complicated posterior distributions in GPSSMs. The robust PRSSMs (R-PRSSMs) discussed in this article assume a scale mixture of normal distributions instead of the usually proposed normal distribution. This assumption will accommodate heavy-tailed behavior or anomalous observations in the time series. On any exogenous intervention, we use R-PRSSM for Bayesian fitting and forecasting of the IoT time series. By comparing forecasts with the future internal temperature observations, we can assess with a high level of confidence the impact of an intervention. The techniques presented in this paper are very generic and apply to any time series and intervention combination. To illustrate our techniques clearly, we employ a concrete example. The time series of interest will be an Internet of Things (IoT) stream of internal temperatures measured by an insurance firm to address the risk of pipe-freeze hazard in a building. We treat the pipe-freeze hazard alert as an exogenous intervention. A comparison of forecasts and the future observed temperatures will be utilized to assess whether an alerted customer took preventive action to prevent pipe-freeze loss. Full article