Search Results (346)

Microbially-induced calcite precipitation (MICP) has emerged as a promising bio-geotechnical technique for sustainable soil improvement, yet accurate prediction of treatment effectiveness remains challenging due to complex multi-factor interactions. This study develops an ensemble learning framework (LARO-EnML) for predicting the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of MICP-treated sand. A comprehensive database containing 402 experimental datasets was utilised in the study, consisting of unconfined compression test results from bio-cemented sands with eight key input parameters considered. The performance evaluation demonstrates that LARO-EnML achieves superior predictive accuracy, with RMSE of 0.5449, MAE of 0.2853, R² of 0.9570, and OI of 0.9597 on the test data, significantly outperforming other models. Model interpretability analysis reveals that calcite content serves as the most influential factor, with a strong positive correlation to strength enhancement, while urease activity exhibits complex, staged influence characteristics. This research contributes to advancing the practical implementation of MICP technology in geotechnical engineering by offering both accurate predictive capability and enhanced process understanding through interpretable ML approaches. Full article

A reliable precipitation dataset with high spatial resolution is essential for climate research in the Tarim Basin. This study evaluated the performances of four models, namely a random forest (RF), a long short-term memory network (LSTM), a support vector machine (SVM), and a feedforward neural network (FNN). FNN, which was found to be superior to the other models, was used to integrate eight precipitation datasets spanning from 1990 to 2022 across the Tarim Basin, resulting in a new monthly high-resolution (0.1°) precipitation dataset named MoHiPr-TB. This dataset was subsequently bias-corrected by the China Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0). Validation results indicate that the corrected MoHiPr-TB not only accurately reflects the spatial distribution of precipitation but also effectively simulates its intensity and interannual and seasonal variations. Moreover, MoHiPr-TB is capable of detecting the precipitation–elevation relationship in the Pamir Plateau, where precipitation initially increases and then decreases with elevation, as well as the synchronous variation of precipitation and elevation in the Tianshan region. Collectively, this study delivers a high-accuracy precipitation dataset for the Tarim Basin, which is anticipated to have extensive applications in meteorological, hydrological, and ecological research. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

Reliable gridded precipitation products (GPPs) are essential for effective hydrological simulations, particularly in mountainous regions with limited ground-based observations. This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GPPs, CHIRPS and ERA5, in estimating precipitation and supporting runoff generation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) across three headwater catchments (Sill, Drava and Isel) in the Austrian Alps from 1991 to 2018. The region’s complex topography and climatic variability present a rigorous test for GPP application. The evaluation methods combined point-to-point comparisons with gauge observations and assessments of generated runoff and runoff trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. CHIRPS showed a lower precipitation error (RMAE = 25%) and generated more consistent runoff results (RMAE = 12%), particularly in smaller catchments, whereas ERA5 showed higher spatial consistency but higher overall precipitation bias (RMAE = 37%). Although both datasets successfully reproduced the seasonal runoff regime, CHIRPS outperformed ERA5 in trend detection and monthly runoff estimates. Both GPPs systematically overestimate annual and seasonal precipitation amounts, especially at lower elevations and during the cold season. The results highlight the critical influence of GPP spatial resolution and its alignment with catchment morphology on model performance. While both products are viable alternatives to observed precipitation, CHIRPS is recommended for hydrological modelling in smaller, topographically complex alpine catchments due to its higher spatial resolution. Despite its higher precipitation bias, ERA5’s superior correlation with observations suggests strong potential for improved model performance if bias correction techniques are applied. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting GPPs based on the scale and geomorphological and climatic conditions of the study area. Full article

The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and European Space Agency-Climate Change Initiative (ESA–CCI) soil moisture (SM) products are widely used in agricultural drought monitoring, water resource management, and climate analysis applications. However, the performance of these SM products varies significantly across regions and environmental conditions, due to in sensor characteristics, retrieval algorithms, and the lack of localized calibration. This study proposes a multi-source long short-term memory (MLSTM) for improving ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP SM products by combining in-situ SM measurements and four key auxiliary variables: precipitation (PRE), land surface temperature (LST), fractional vegetation cover (FVC), and evapotranspiration (ET). First, the in-situ measured data from four in-situ observation networks were corrected using the LSTM method to match the grid sizes of ASCAT (0.1°), ESA–CCI (0.25°), and SMAP (0.1°) SM products. The RPE, LST, FVC, and ET were used as inputs to the LSTM to obtain loss data against in-situ SM measurements. Second, the ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP SM datasets were used as inputs to the LSTM to generate loss data, which were subsequently corrected using LSTM-derived loss data based on in-situ SM measurements. When the mean squared error (MSE) loss values were minimized, the improvement for ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP products was considered the best. Finally, the improved ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP were produced and evaluated by the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and standard deviation (SD). The results showed that the RMSE values of the improved ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP products against the corrected in-situ SM data in the OZNET network were lower, i.e., 0.014 cm³/cm³, 0.019 cm³/cm³, and 0.034 cm³/cm³, respectively. Compared with the ESA–CCI and SMAP products, the ASCAT product was greatly improved, e.g., in the SNOTEL network, the Root Mean-Square Deviation (RMSD) values of 0.1049 cm³/cm³ (ASCAT) and 0.0662 cm³/cm³ (improved ASCAT). Overall, the MLSTM-based algorithm has the potential to improve the global satellite SM product. Full article

Accurate terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is crucial for understanding land–atmosphere interactions, evaluating ecosystem functions, and supporting water resource management, particularly across climatically diverse regions. To address the limitations of traditional ET models, we propose a simple yet robust Sigmoid-RH model that characterizes the nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and ET. Unlike conventional approaches such as the Penman–Monteith or Priestley–Taylor models, the Sigmoid-RH model requires fewer inputs and is better suited for large-scale applications where data availability is limited. In this study, we applied the Sigmoid-RH model to estimate ET over mainland China from 2001 to 2018 by using satellite remote sensing and meteorological reanalysis data. Key driving inputs included air temperature (Ta), net radiation (Rn), relative humidity (RH), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), all of which are readily available from public datasets. Validation at 20 flux tower sites showed strong performance, with R-square (R²) ranging from 0.26 to 0.93, Root Mean Squard Error (RMSE) from 0.5 to 1.3 mm/day, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) from 0.16 to 0.91. The model performed best in mixed forests (KGE = 0.90) and weakest in shrublands (KGE = 0.27). Spatially, ET shows a clear increasing trend from northwest to southeast, closely aligned with climatic zones, with national mean annual ET of 560 mm/yr, ranging from less than 200 mm/yr in arid zones to over 1100 mm/yr in the humid south. Seasonally, ET peaked in summer due to monsoonal rainfall and vegetation growth, and was lowest in winter. Temporally, ET declined from 2001 to 2009 but increased from 2009 to 2018, influenced by changes in precipitation and NDVI. These findings confirm the applicability of the Sigmoid-RH model and highlight the importance of hydrothermal conditions and vegetation dynamics in regulating ET. By improving the accuracy and scalability of ET estimation, this model can provide practical implications for drought early warning systems, forest ecosystem management, and agricultural irrigation planning under changing climate conditions. Full article

This study, conducted within the SteamBioAfrica project, assessed the potential of Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) to estimate Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) across key regions of southern Africa: Otjozondjupa and Omusati (Namibia), Chobe (Botswana), and KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa). Random Forest (RF) models were implemented in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment, integrating multi-source datasets including real-time Sentinel-2 imagery, topographic variables, climatic data, and regional soil samples. Three model configurations were evaluated: (A) climatic, topographic, and spectral data; (B) topographic and spectral data; and (C) spectral data only. Model A achieved the highest overall accuracy (R² up to 0.78), particularly in Otjozondjupa, whereas Model B resulted in the lowest RMSE and MAE. Model C exhibited poorer performance, underscoring the importance of multi-source data integration. SOC variability was primarily influenced by elevation, precipitation, temperature, and Sentinel-2 bands B11 and B8. However, data scarcity and inconsistent sampling, especially in Chobe, reduced model reliability (R²: 0.62). The originality of this study lay in the scalable integration of real-time Sentinel-2 data with regional datasets in an open-access framework. The resulting SOC maps provided actionable insights for land-use planning and climate adaptation in savanna ecosystems. Full article

We assessed the impacts of tree improvement programs on the associated gains in yield of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann x Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) over long temporal and large spatial extents. The definition of gain varied in the tree improvement programs. We assessed the definition of gain using a sensitivity analysis, altering the evaluation age with the definitions of the baseline and top performers. We used meta-data from provenance trials extracted from the literature to model the yields of provenances relative to those of standard stocks. Using a previously developed meta-model and a chosen gain definition, a meta-dataset of the gain of plantation ages was developed. Using this gain meta-dataset, a gain trajectory model was fitted for white and hybrid spruce provenances across Canadian boreal and hemiboreal forests. The planting site, mean annual daily temperature, mean annual precipitation, and number of degree days > 5 °C had large impacts on gain. This model can be used to predict gain up to harvest age at any planting site in the boreal and hemiboreal forests of Canada. Further, these gain trajectories could be averaged over a region to indicate the yield potential of tree improvement programs. Full article

Drought indices are important resources for monitoring and warning of drought impacts. However, regions like New Mexico, which are highly vulnerable to drought, as identified by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), lack a comprehensive drought monitoring system that integrates multiple agrometeorological variables into a single indicator. The purpose of this study is to create a Combined Drought Indicator for New Mexico (CDI-NM) as an indicator tool for use in monitoring historical drought events and measuring its extent across the New Mexico. The CDI-NM was constructed using four key variables: the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), temperature, Smoothed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (SMN), and gridded rainfall data. A quantitative approach was used to assign weights to these variables employing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to produce the CDI-NM. Unlike conventional indices, CDI-NM assigns weights to each variable based on their statistical contributions, allowing the index to adapt to local spatial and temporal drought dynamics. The performance of CDI-NM was evaluated against gridded rainfall data using the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) over a 17-year period (2003–2019). The results revealed that CDI-NM reliably detected moderate and severe droughts with a strong correlation (R² > 0.8 and RMSE = 0.10) between both indices for the entire period of analysis. CDI-NM showed negative correlation (r < 0) with crop yield. While promising, the method assumes linear relationships among variables and consistent spatial resolution in the input datasets, which may affect its accuracy under certain local conditions. Based on the results, the CDI-NM stands out as a promising instrument that brings us closer to improved decision-making by stakeholders in the fight against agricultural droughts throughout New Mexico. Full article

Pavement performance models are considered a key element in pavement management systems since they can predict the future condition of pavements using historical data. Several indicators are used to evaluate the condition of pavements (such as the pavement condition index, rutting depth, and cracking severity), and the international roughness index (IRI), which is the most widely employed worldwide. This study aimed to develop an accurate IRI prediction model. Ten prediction methods were trained on a dataset of 35 independent variables. The performance of the methods was compared, and the light gradient boosting machine was identified as the best-performing method for IRI prediction. Then, the SHAP was synchronized with the best-performing method to prioritize variables based on their relative influence on IRI. The results suggested that initial IRI, mean annual temperature, and the duration between data collections had the strongest relative influence on IRI prediction. Another objective of this study was to determine the optimal uncertainty model for IRI prediction. In this regard, 12 uncertainty models were developed based on different conformal prediction methods. Gray relational analysis was performed to identify the optimal uncertainty model. The results showed that Minmax/80 was the optimal uncertainty model for IRI prediction, with an effective coverage of 93.4% and an average interval width of 0.256 m/km. Finally, a further analysis was performed on the outcomes of the optimal uncertainty model, and initial IRI, duration, annual precipitation, and a few distress parameters were identified as uncertain. The results of the framework indicate in which situations the predicted IRI may be unreliable. Full article

Accurately predicting streamflow using process-based models remains challenging due to uncertainties in model parameters and the complex nature of streamflow generation. Data-driven approaches, however, offer feasible alternatives, avoiding the need for physical process representation. This study introduces a hybrid deep learning framework, CNN-GRU-BiLSTM, for daily streamflow prediction. This model integrates convolutional neural networks (CNN), gated recurrent units (GRU), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks to leverage their complementary strengths. When applied to the Neuse River Basin (NRB) (North Carolina, USA), the proposed model achieved strong predictive performance, yielding a root mean square (RMSE) of 11.8 m³/s (compared to an average streamflow of 132.7 m³/s), and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 8.7 m³/s, and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.994 for the testing dataset. Similar performance trends were observed in the training and validation phases. A comparative analysis against seven other deep learning and hybrid models of similar complexity highlighted the outstanding performance of the CNN-GRU-BiLSTM model across all flood events. Furthermore, its stability, robustness, and transferability were evaluated in a seasonal dataset, peak floods, and different locations along the river. These findings underscore the potential of hybrid deep learning models and reinforce the effectiveness of integrating multiple data-driven techniques for streamflow prediction in regions where precipitation is the dominant driver of streamflow. Full article

Gridded precipitation datasets (GPDs) have complemented gauge-based measurements in global hydrology by providing spatiotemporally continuous rainfall estimates for streamflow prediction. However, these datasets suffer from uncertainties in space and time, particularly in complex terrains like the Himalayas. Merging multi-GPDs offers a potential solution to reduce such uncertainties, but the actual contribution of the merged product to hydrological modeling remains underexplored in data-scarce and topographically complex regions. Here, we applied a gauge-independent merging technique called Signal-to-Noise Ratio optimization (SNR-opt) to merge three precipitation products: ERA5, SM2RAIN, and IMERG-late. The resulting Merged Gridded Precipitation Dataset (MGPD) was evaluated using the hydrological model (HYMOD) across three major river basins in the Central Himalayas (Koshi, Narayani, and Karnali). The results show that MGPD significantly outperforms the individual GPDs in streamflow simulation. This is evidenced by higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, 0.87 (Narayani) and 0.86 (Karnali), compared to ERA5 (0.83, 0.82), SM2RAIN (0.83, 0.85), and IMERG-Late (0.82, 0.78). In Koshi, the merged product (NSE = 0.80) showed slightly lower performance than SM2RAIN (NSE = 0.82) and ERA5 (NSE = 0.81), likely due to the poor performance of IMERG-Late (NSE = 0.69) in this basin. These findings underscore the value of merging precipitation datasets to enhance the accuracy and reliability of hydrological modeling, especially in ungauged or data-scarce mountainous regions, offering important implications for water resource management and forecasting. Full article

Accurate real-time icing grid fields are critical for preventing ice-related disasters during winter and protecting property. These fields are essential for both mapping ice distribution and predicting icing using physical models combined with numerical weather prediction systems. However, developing precise real-time icing grids is challenging due to the uneven distribution of monitoring stations, data confidentiality restrictions, and the limitations of existing interpolation methods. In this study, we propose a new approach for constructing real-time icing grid fields using 1339 online terminal monitoring datasets provided by the China Southern Power Grid Research Institute Co., Ltd. (CSPGRI) during the winter of 2023. Our method integrates static geographic information, dynamic meteorological factors, and ice_kriging values derived from parameter-optimized Empirical Bayesian Kriging Interpolation (EBKI) to create a spatiotemporally matched, multi-source fused icing thickness grid dataset. We applied five machine learning algorithms—Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, Stacking, and Convolutional Neural Network Transformers (CNNT)—and evaluated their performance using six metrics: R, RMSE, CSI, MAR, FAR, and fbias, on both validation and testing sets. The stacking model performed best, achieving an R-value of 0.634 (0.893), RMSE of 3.424 mm (2.834 mm), CSI of 0.514 (0.774), MAR of 0.309 (0.091), FAR of 0.332 (0.161), and fbias of 1.034 (1.084), respectively, when comparing predicted icing values with actual measurements on pylons. Additionally, we employed the SHAP model to provide a physical interpretation of the stacking model, confirming the independence of selected features. Meteorological factors such as relative humidity (RH), 10 m wind speed (WS₁₀), 2 m temperature (T₂), and precipitation (PRE) demonstrated a range of positive and negative contributions consistent with the observed growth of icing. Thus, our multi-source remote-sensing data-fusion approach, combined with the stacking model, offers a highly accurate and interpretable solution for generating real-time icing grid fields. Full article

Floods pose a substantial threat to both life and property, with their frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change. A comprehensive hydrological and hydraulic modeling approach is essential for understanding flood dynamics and developing effective future flood risk management strategies. The accuracy of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) directly impacts the reliability of hydrologic simulations. This study focuses on evaluating the efficacy of two DEMs in hydrological modeling, specifically investigating their potential for daily discharge simulation in the Periyar River Basin, Kerala, India. Recognizing the limitations of the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with the available dataset, a novel hybrid model was developed by integrating HEC-HMS outputs with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). While precipitation, lagged precipitation, and lagged discharge served as inputs to the ANN, the hybrid model also incorporated HEC-HMS simulations as an additional input. The results demonstrated improved performance of the hybrid model in simulating daily discharge. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was employed to predict flood inundation areas for both historical and future scenarios in the Aluva region of the Periyar River Basin, which was severely impacted during the 2018 Kerala floods. By integrating hydrological and hydraulic modeling approaches, this study aims to enhance flood prediction accuracy and contribute to the development of effective flood mitigation strategies. Full article

Cadmium (Cd) pollution poses a severe threat to rice safety and human health, while traditional linear models exhibit significant limitations in predicting rice Cd accumulation due to environmental complexities. This study systematically evaluated the predictive performance of Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and Residual Neural Networks (ResNet), using a multi-source soil–rice dataset comprising 57,200 samples from Hunan Province. The results showed that the RF model performed best on the test set (R² = 0.62), with the dominant features being soil’s available Cd (contributing 9.74%) and precipitation during the rice-filling stage (joint contribution of 15.96%). However, the model’s predictive performance experienced a sharp decline on the independent 2023 validation set comprising 393 samples from Yizhang County and Lengshuitan District, with R² values ranging from −0.12 to −0.31. This highlighted the fundamental limitations of static data-driven paradigms. Agronomic management measures, simplified by heterogeneous data and binary encoding, failed to effectively represent the actual intervention intensity. The study demonstrated that while machine learning models captured nonlinear relationships in laboratory environments, they struggled to adapt to the dynamic interactions and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of farmland systems. Future efforts should focus on developing hybrid models guided by mechanistic insights, integrating dynamic environmental processes and real-time data, and promoting localized “one model per region” strategies to enhance predictive robustness. This study provides methodological insights for the technological transformation of agricultural artificial intelligence, emphasizing that the deep integration of data-driven approaches and mechanistic understanding is crucial for overcoming the “last mile” challenge. Full article