Search Results (233)

For a long time, the explanation of the various determinants of oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic activity has been based on the supply and demand mechanism. However, with various volatile changes in the international situation in recent years, such as threats to public health and an increase in regional conflicts, special attention has been paid to the geopolitical context as an additional driver of oil price fluctuations. This study examines the relationship between oil price changes and GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables from the perspective of the vulnerability of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries to unexpected oil price shocks, driven by tense geopolitical events, in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and Poland). We apply the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and orthogonalized impulse response functions, based on quarterly data, in regard to two samples: the first spans 1995Q1–2019Q4 (pre-2020 sample), with relatively gradual changes in oil prices, and the second spans 1995Q1–2024Q2 (whole sample), with sudden fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical developments. A key finding of this research is that vulnerability to unpredictable oil price shocks related to geopolitical tensions is higher than in regard to expected gradual changes in oil prices, both in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Different causality patterns and stronger responses in regard to GDP growth during the period, including in regard to tense geopolitical events in comparison to the pre-2020 sample, lead to the belief that economies are not more resilient to oil price shocks as has been suggested by some studies, which referred to periods that were not driven by geopolitical events. Our research also suggests that countries implementing policies to reduce oil dependency and promote investment in alternative energy sources are better equipped to mitigate the adverse effects of oil price shocks. Full article

Floating solar technology has gained significant attention as part of the global expansion of renewable energy due to its potential for installation in underutilized water bodies. Several countries, including the Netherlands, have initiated efforts to extend this technology from inland freshwater applications to open offshore environments, particularly within offshore wind farm areas. This development is motivated by the synergistic benefits of increasing site energy density and leveraging the existing offshore grid infrastructure. The deployment of offshore floating photovoltaic (OFPV) systems involves assembling multiple modular units in a marine environment, introducing operational risks that may give rise to safety concerns. To mitigate these risks, weather windows must be considered prior to the task execution to ensure continuity between weather-sensitive activities, which can also lead to additional time delays and increased costs. Consequently, optimizing marine logistics becomes crucial to achieving the cost reductions necessary for making OFPV technology economically viable. This study employs a simulation-based approach to estimate the installation duration of a 5 MWp OFPV plant at a Dutch offshore wind farm site, started in different months and under three distinct risk management scenarios. Based on 20 years of hindcast wave data, the results reveal the impacts of campaign start months and risk management policies on installation duration. Across all the scenarios, the installation duration during the autumn and winter period is 160% longer than the one in the spring and summer period. The average installation durations, based on results from 12 campaign start months, are 70, 80, and 130 days for the three risk management policies analyzed. The result variation highlights the additional time required to mitigate operational risks arising from potential discontinuity between highly interdependent tasks (e.g., offshore platform assembly and mooring). Additionally, it is found that the weather-induced delays are mainly associated with the campaigns of pre-laying anchors and platform and mooring line installation compared with the other campaigns. In conclusion, this study presents a logistics modeling methodology for OFPV systems, demonstrated through a representative case study based on a state-of-the-art truss-type design. The primary contribution lies in providing a framework to quantify the performance of OFPV installation strategies at an early design stage. The findings of this case study further highlight that marine installation logistics are highly sensitive to local marine conditions and the chosen installation strategy, and should be integrated early in the OFPV design process to help reduce the levelized cost of electricity. Full article

Rainfall infiltration is a key factor affecting the stability of the slope. To study the impact of rainfall on the instability mechanism and stability of slopes, this paper employs numerical simulation to establish a rainfall infiltration slope model and conducts a saturated–unsaturated slope flow and solid coupling numerical analysis. By combining the strength reduction method with the calculation of slope stability under rainfall infiltration, the safety factor of the slope is obtained. A comprehensive analysis is conducted from the perspectives of the seepage field, displacement field and other factors to examine the impact of heavy rainfall patterns and rainfall intensities on the instability mechanism and stability of the slope. The results indicate that heavy rainfall causes the transient saturation zone within the landslide body to continuously move upward, forming a continuous sliding surface inside the slope, which may lead to instability and sliding of the soil in the upper part of the slope toe. The heavy rainfall patterns significantly affect the temporal and spatial evolution of pore water pressure, displacement and safety factors of the slope. Pore water pressure and displacement show a positive correlation with the rainfall intensity at various times during heavy rainfall events. The pre-peak rainfall pattern causes the largest decrease in the safety factor of the slope, and the slope failure occurs earlier, which is the most detrimental to the stability of the slope. The rainfall intensity is inversely proportional to the safety factor. As the rainfall intensity increases, the decrease in the slope’s safety factor becomes more significant, and the time required for slope instability is also shortened. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for analyzing rainfall-induced slope instability and failure. Full article

The impact of processing time, temperature, and sample on solution ratio parameters, along with pulsing microwave pretreatment, was assessed in the osmotic dehydration of waxy skin highbush blueberries. Fresh blueberries were pre-treated with 20% microwave power for 90 s before being subjected to osmotic dehydration for 8 h in a 60 °Brix sucrose solution, with three different sample to solution ratios (1:4, 1:7, and 1:10). Changes in water loss, solid gain, total anthocyanin content, total phenolic content, and total soluble solid content during osmotic dehydration, as well as color and texture changes, were investigated at four temperature levels (room temperature, 60 °C, 65 °C, and 70 °C). The highest rate of reduction in the total soluble solid content in the osmotic solution was observed during the initial hours (0–4 h) of the process. The most effective combination for reducing the total soluble content of the osmotic agent involved the microwave-pretreatment of the blueberries at 70 °C, using a sample to solution ratio of 1:4, resulting in a decrease of 11.98%, compared to 7.83% for non-pretreated samples. The solid gain was found to be affected by the sample to solution ratio × temperature × pretreatment at a 1% probability level (p ≤ 0.01). The temperature, osmotic solution ratio, and microwave pretreatment interacted together to affect the quality parameters of the osmotically dehydrated blueberries, including total anthocyanin content, total phenolic content, and color. Higher temperatures, along with microwave pretreatment, showed the worst effects on the quality characteristics mentioned. Microwave pretreatment did not change the texture significantly in comparison with non-pretreated blueberry samples. The enhancing effect of microwave pretreatment and higher temperatures on the efficiency of the osmotic dehydration process was obvious. An optimized microwave pretreatment can reduce both the required processing time and temperature for the osmotic dehydration of waxy skinned blueberries, which in turn can lead to the higher quality preservation of processed blueberries and lower energy consumption. This could be especially useful for the large-scale processing of waxy skinned berries. Full article

Background/Objectives: Diabetic foot (DF) is among the leading causes of diabetes-related disability. It is important to maintain regular follow-up and patient education in the prevention and treatment of DF ulcers. In extraordinary situations such as a pandemic, there are disruptions in regular clinical follow-up and patient education, and the effects of this disruption need to be investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the pandemic on the clinical condition of patients hospitalised for DF. Methods: Patients were divided into two groups according to the date of admission to the clinic: the pre-pandemic (1 January 2019–11 March 2020) and the pandemic period (12 March 2020–1 June 2021). Comparisons were made between the two groups in terms of DF data and clinical parameters. Data were analysed with SPSS using chi-square, Student’s t-test and Mann–Whitney U analysis. Results: As a result of the screening, data from 125 DF patients (45 pre-pandemic and 80 pandemic) were collected. The DF stage, according to the Wagner classification, was significantly more advanced in patients during the pandemic period (p = 0.015). However, the time between the onset of symptoms and hospitalisation was longer for patients during the pandemic period (p = 0.035). When analysing treatment outcomes, the rate of wound healing was found to be lower (62.2% vs. 30%), and the rate of transtibial amputation was higher (11.2% vs. 20%) during the pandemic period (p = 0.002). Conclusions: This study found that the number of patients hospitalised for DF increased during the pandemic period, as did the severity of the wound, length of admission and radical treatment interventions. Full article

Background: Residency training is a formative and rigorous experience, with burnout rates reported at 76%. Formal peer support groups have shown improvement in burnout among healthcare workers with anxiety and depression. Objective: Implement a peer support program for emergency medicine (EM) residents and characterize utilization of metrics by demographics, burnout rates of participants, and overall session impact. Methods: An IRB-approved, longitudinal, prospective cohort study of 73 EM and EM/Pediatrics residents post-graduate year (PGY) 1–5 from July 2021–June 2022 was performed. Resident peer leaders were trained using a novel curriculum to lead peer support groups. Residents were invited to participate in biweekly sessions, with optional pre- and post-session surveys measuring demographics, burnout, themes discussed, and how they felt after sessions (Patients’ Global Impression of Change scale). Results: There were 134 attendances over 20 sessions, averaging 6 residents per session. Of 73 total residents, 37 (50%) participated at least once. All levels of training were represented, with half being female, 20% underrepresented in medicine, and 14% LGBTQ+. Overall burnout rates were unchanged for first-time attendances (49%, n = 18) vs. recurrent (50%, n = 11). Females had higher burnout at both baseline (60%, n = 15) and recurrent sessions (69%, n = 13). Following sessions, 94% of participants reported feeling immediately better and 100% of leaders felt prepared leading peer support sessions. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that residents utilize peer support, with many returning more than once. Despite stable burnout rates, 94% of participants felt immediately better after the session, suggesting that peer support is a valuable resource for residents actively experiencing burnout. Full article

Zoonotic diseases are transmitted from animals to humans, and they impose a significant global burden by impacting both animal and human health. It can lead to substantial economic losses and cause millions of human deaths. The emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic diseases are heavily influenced by both anthropogenic and natural drivers such as climate change, rapid urbanization, and widespread travel. Over time, the unprecedented rise of new and re-emerging zoonotic diseases has prompted the need for rapid and effective vaccine development. Following the success of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, mRNA-based platforms hold great promise due to their rapid design, swift development and ability to elicit robust immune responses, thereby highlighting their potential in combating emerging and pre-pandemic zoonotic viruses. In recent years, several mRNA vaccines targeting emerging and re-emerging zoonotic viral diseases, such as rabies, Nipah, Zika, and influenza, have advanced to clinical trials, demonstrating promising immunogenicity. This review explores recent advances, challenges, and future directions in developing mRNA vaccines against emerging and re-emerging zoonotic viral diseases. Full article

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of mortality and disability, particularly in patients on anticoagulation therapy. While anticoagulants are linked to higher TBI mortality, the specific impact of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) on severe TBI (sTBI) outcomes remains unclear, especially in light of newer reversal agents. Therefore, this study evaluates long-term mortality and complication risks associated with pre-injury use of DOACs and VKAs in sTBI patients from a large, real-world cohort. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the TriNetX global research network, identifying patients with sTBI between 2016 and 2022. Patients were grouped based on pre-injury anticoagulant use: DOAC, VKA, or none. Propensity score matching was performed, adjusting for age, comorbidities, and baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-months post-injury. Secondary outcomes included hospital and surgical complications up to 30 days post-injury. Results: A total of 40,563 patients met the inclusion criteria. At all time intervals, no significant mortality differences were found between the PSM-matched groups. Conclusions: In patients with sTBI, pre-injury DOAC or VKA use was not associated with increased short- or long-term mortality. These findings suggest that, with current perioperative practices, anticoagulation can be managed without adversely affecting outcomes. Full article

This study evaluates the feasibility of integrating pulsed electric field (PEF) technology with heat recovery for fruit juice pasteurization, comparing it to conventional high-temperature short-time (HTST) pasteurization. Three preheating temperature conditions (35 °C, 45 °C, and 55 °C) and varying heat recovery efficiencies have been assessed to analyze energy consumption, economic feasibility, and environmental impact. The results indicate that, while PEF pasteurization requires a higher initial investment, it improves energy efficiency, leading to significant reductions in utility costs. Across the tested configurations, PEF technology achieved reductions in electricity consumption by up to 20%, fuel gas usage by over 60%, greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 30%, and water consumption by 25%, compared to HTST. The optimal configuration of the PEF process, featuring a 35% waste heat recovery efficiency and a pre-heating temperature of 55 °C, has been identified as the most energy-efficient and sustainable solution, effectively reducing both water consumption and CO₂ emissions. A life cycle assessment has confirmed these environmental benefits, demonstrating reductions in global warming potential, fossil fuel consumption, and other impact categories. This study suggests that PEF technology can significantly contribute to more sustainable food processing by reducing environmental impacts, optimizing resource usage, and enhancing energy efficiency. Full article

Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard that accompanies hardships for millions of civilians and substantial economic losses. In Sri Lanka, fluvial floods cause the highest damage to lives and properties. Ratnapura, which is in the Kalu River Basin, is the area most vulnerable to frequent flood events in Sri Lanka due to inherent weather patterns and its geographical location. However, flood-related studies conducted based on the Kalu River Basin and its most vulnerable cities are given minimal attention by researchers. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a robust and reliable dynamic flood forecasting system to issue accurate and timely early flood warnings to vulnerable victims. Modeling the water level at the initial stage and then classifying the results of this into pre-defined flood risk levels facilitates more accurate forecasts for upcoming susceptibilities, since direct flood classification often produces less accurate predictions due to the heavily imbalanced nature of the data. Thus, this study introduces a novel hybrid model that combines a deep leaning technique with a traditional Linear Regression model to first forecast water levels and then detect rare but destructive flood events (i.e., major and critical floods) with high accuracy, from 1 to 3 days ahead. Initially, the water level of the Kalu River at Ratnapura was forecasted 1 to 3 days ahead by employing a Vanilla Bi-LSTM model. Similarly to water level modeling, rainfall at the same location was forecasted 1 to 3 days ahead by applying another Bi-LSTM model. To further improve the forecasting accuracy of the water level, the forecasted water level at day t was combined with the forecasted rainfall for the same day by applying a Time Series Regression model, thereby resulting in a hybrid model. This improvement is imperative mainly because the water level forecasts obtained for a longer lead time may change with the real-time appearance of heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, this important phenomenon has often been neglected in past studies related to modeling water levels. The performances of the models were compared by examining their ability to accurately forecast flood risks, especially at critical levels. The combined model with Bi-LSTM and Time Series Regression outperformed the single Vanilla Bi-LSTM model by forecasting actionable flood events (minor and critical) occurring in the testing period with accuracies of 80%, 80%, and 100% for 1- to 3-day-ahead forecasting, respectively. Moreover, overall, the results evidenced lower RMSE and MAE values (<0.4 m MSL) for three-days-ahead water level forecasts. Therefore, this enhanced approach enables more trustworthy, impact-based flood forecasting for the Rathnapura area in the Kalu River Basin. The same modeling approach could be applied to obtain flood risk levels caused by rivers across the globe. Full article

Background/Objectives: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) place an excessive strain on health systems in disaster-affected settings and may lead to a parallel public health emergency lasting months or years after a disaster. Although NCDs are increasingly recognized as a major challenge in disasters and humanitarian emergencies, a dedicated and standardized response plan is missing, as well as a shortage of evidence-based guidelines for NCD management in theses contexts. Over the years, Emergency Medical Teams (EMTs) have traditionally been deployed to manage acute conditions such as trauma and infectious diseases that quickly impact health systems. However, greater attention is needed to address acute exacerbation of NCDs and to ensure continuity of care for people with chronic health needs in disasters and emergencies. Methods: We conducted a scoping review exploring the EMTs’ management of chronic NCDs during disasters and humanitarian emergencies, in order to identify the strategies adopted, the challenges faced, and the recommendations provided to address this health problem. The online databases PubMed, Scopus, and EBSCO were searched to identify relevant papers. Results: After screening the papers against the eligibility criteria, 17 publications were retrieved. Five different areas of intervention concerning EMTs and NCDs management were identified: (i) EMTs pre-departure preparation, operational time, and length of stay; (ii) EMTs staff composition and training; (iii) EMTs logistics; (iv) EMTs integration with local health services; (v) EMTs clinical data record. Conclusions: The findings emerging from this study showed that NCDs significantly impact disaster response in different settings, underlining the need to implement a range of EMTs activities to guarantee assistance for chronic health needs. In view of strengthening the ability of health systems to cope with the NCDs’ burden, the EMTs’ initiatives should be considered as a bridge between the support provided during the acute phase of an emergency and the continuation of care ensured by the system in its early recovery phase. Full article

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems often employ metallic cathode air pre-heaters (CAPHs), frequently made from alloys with high chromium (Cr) content, to recover thermal energy from exhaust gases and pre-heat incoming air and fuel. Cr evaporation from metallic CAPHs can poison SOFC cathodes, reducing their durability. To mitigate this, we investigated controlled pre-oxidation of a FeCrAl alloy (alloy 318) to form a protective alumina scale by self-growing, assessing its impact on and oxidation resistance and Cr retention capability for CAPH applications. The effects of pre-oxidation were investigated across a temperature range of 800 to 1100 °C and dwelling times of 0.5 to 4 h. The formed oxide scales were characterised using gravimetry in combination with advanced analytic techniques, such as SEM/EDX, STEM/EDX, TEM, and XRD. Subsequently, the pre-oxidised FeCrAl alloys were characterised with respect to the oxidation rate and Cr₂O₃ evaporation in a tubular furnace at 850 °C, with 6.0 L/min air flow and 3 vol% H₂O to simulate the SOFC cathode environment. TEM analysis confirmed that the FeCrAl alloys formed alumina scales with 10 nm and 34 nm thickness after 1 h of pre-oxidation at 900 and 1100 °C, respectively. The corrosion and Cr₂O₃ evaporation rates of the FeCrAl alloy at 850 °C in humidified air were shown to be dramatically decreased by pre-oxidation. It was found that the mechanisms of oxidation and Cr₂O₃ evaporation were found to be controlled by the formation of different alumina phases during the pre-oxidation. Measurements of Cr₂O₃ evaporation and weight gain revealed that the alloy 318 pre-treated at 1100 °C for 1 h will form an α-Al₂O₃ scale, leading to a 98% reduction of the oxidation rate and 90% reduction of Cr₂O₃ evaporation compared to the non-oxidised alloy 318 under simulated SOFC cathode conditions. Full article

Background: Oesophageal perforation (OP) is a life-threatening condition requiring prompt diagnosis and treatment. Mortality is influenced by several factors, such as aetiology, defect location, comorbidities, age, and delays in treatment. This study reviews patients with OP undergoing surgery, analysing mortality risks and the impact of timing on surgical outcomes. Methods: Medical records of 45 patients surgically treated for OP across three tertiary centers were analysed. Results: Of the 45 patients, 31 were male (68.88%) and 14 were female (31.11%), with a mean age of 66.00 ± 17.75 years. Pre-operative CT was performed in all patients, and 18 (40%) underwent oesophagogastroduodenoscopy. As many as 25 patients (55.55%) presented within 24 h, 10 (22.22%) within 24–72 h, and 10 (22.22%) after 72 h. Symptoms included pain, vomiting, fever, dysphagia, and subcutaneous emphysema. Foreign body ingestion and Boerhaave’s syndrome were the leading causes (33.33% each), followed by caustic ingestion (17.77%) and iatrogenic and traumatic cases. Treatments included primary repair, debridement, oesophagectomy, and oesophagogastrectomy. Primary repair was performed in 22 cases (48.88%), and muscle flaps reinforced 11 of these. Direct repair showed the highest success rate when performed within 24 h. Thirty patients (66.66%) experienced complications, including respiratory failure, oesophagopleural fistula, and sub-stenosis. The hospital stay average was 36.34 ± 35.03 days. Nine patients underwent same-session/two-stage gastroplasty or retrosternal coloplasty for reconstruction, with complications including stenosis and leaks. Six patients (13.33%) died within the first 24 h after surgery, primarily due to severe comorbidities (three (50%) were octogenarians). Conclusions: OP is a life-threatening condition with high mortality. Primary repair is the preferred treatment. Oesophagectomy and gastrectomy are reserved for extensive lesions. Muscle flaps can reinforce sutures in cervical and thoracic perforations. Mortality is mainly influenced by the severity of the patient’s clinical picture and comorbidities, rather than by time and type of treatment. Full article

As gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) rises as a major public health concern, various factors have been identified as potential contributors, with air pollution drawing increasing attention. The mechanisms by which air pollutants lead to detrimental impacts are largely attributed to oxidative stress. However, the role of air pollution is still not entirely clarified, suggesting that additional factors, such as genetic variability, particularly of genes involved in redox homeostasis, influence the GDM risk. This study addresses three questions: (1) whether ambient PM_2.5, PM₁₀, O₃, and NO₂ exposures associate with GDM risk; (2) if GSTM1-/GSTT1-null genotypes affect the risk of GDM; and (3) whether these genotypes modify pollution–GDM associations. This case–control study comprised 133 women in the case group and 144 in the control group. Exposure to air pollutants was assessed based on the participants’ residential addresses and during different time windows: pre-pregnancy period, first trimester, and second trimester. GSTM1/GSTT1 genotyping was conducted from blood samples. Higher PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and O₃ levels increased GDM risk in women. While GSTM1-/GSTT1-null genotypes showed no overall link to GDM, non-smokers with GSTM1-null had higher GDM risk when exposed to PM_2.5 during the first trimester. While further research on gene–environment interactions is needed, our findings highlight that reducing air pollution may lower GDM risk. Full article

Hydraulic fracturing significantly impacts water production. This makes it crucial to determine whether its effects on formation water production are beneficial or detrimental in complex reservoir stimulations. This paper gives the influence that acts on pore structure variations and irreducible water transformation by hydraulic fracturing; by using NMR and Micro-CT, pore-throat reconfiguration in core samples induced fracturing. Two main pore variation types were identified from CT images. To analyze the gas–water flow mechanisms in pre-fracturing and post-fracturing reservoir conditions, we tested quantifying changes in irreducible water transforms into movable water saturation by using a triaxial in situ flow system, thereby elucidating the impact of the hydraulic fracture on irreducible water saturation. The experiments demonstrate that pore structures are significantly modified in terms of connectivity and diameter through hydraulic fracturing. During damage zone formation, 12.4–19.2% of small pores coalesce into larger pores through integration of isolated spaces. This variation enhances fluid mobility, transforms 1.38–11.61% of irreducible water, and decreases starting pressure gradients by 1 MPa/100 m to 0.1 MPa/100 m. Modified pore structure leads to the iso-permeability point shifting toward higher water saturation. The gas-phase relative permeability at irreducible water saturation is two times as high as that of the matrix sample. Fractured zones show a 20–23% conversion efficiency of irreducible to movable water. In addition, based on the results of experimental data, hydraulic fracturing increased water production by 3607 to 9163 m³. However, this effect is only maintained during the first 3 to 6 months post-fracture. These results quantify the transformation of irreducible water into movable water in hydraulic fracturing. This study provides key performance indicators for gas reservoir applications. Full article