Search Results (178)

Egypt generally experiences a hot and arid climate, with rainfall primarily confined to the northern coast during winter season. However, on 31 May 2025, Alexandria experienced an unusual late-spring convective storm that was associated with heavy rainfall, strong winds, intense lightning, and localized hail. This rare event caused temporary disruptions to urban life and underscored the growing vulnerability of coastal cities to short-duration, high-intensity precipitation events occurring outside the climatological rainy season. This study investigates the atmospheric mechanisms underlying this event through a comprehensive synoptic and dynamic analysis of pressure systems, wind fields, and temperature structures extending from the surface to the 200 hPa level. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of moisture convergence and upper-level dynamical forcing in triggering the rapid development of deep convection. Furthermore, the influence of anomalous large-scale circulation patterns on storm initiation and intensification is systematically examined. Improved understanding of these processes provides valuable insight into off-season convective activity over the southeastern Mediterranean and enhances forecasting capability, risk assessment, and early warning strategies for similar extreme events in the region. Furthermore, the influence of anomalous large-scale circulation patterns on storm initiation and intensification is quantitatively assessed to clarify their contribution to the event’s development. A deeper understanding of these processes offers critical insight into the mechanisms governing off-season convective activity over the southeastern Mediterranean and strengthens forecasting skill, risk assessment frameworks, and early warning systems for comparable extreme events in the region. Full article

Lightning is a major natural ignition source of wildfires across forest, grassland, and cropland ecosystems. Accurate prediction of lightning-ignited fire occurrence remains challenging due to uncertainties in spatiotemporal alignment caused by vegetation-dependent smoldering delays and the difficulty of representing heterogeneous fuel conditions in mixed-vegetation regions. This study proposes a semi-automated lightning–fire alignment framework that integrates land cover information and historical fire records to improve spatiotemporal matching across different vegetation types and to reduce misclassification from human-induced fires in agricultural areas. To better characterize fuel conditions, two feature-level vegetation fusion parameters—total vegetation cover and leaf area index weight—are introduced and combined with hourly meteorological variables and lightning characteristics to develop a tuned random forest prediction model. The framework is applied at a regional scale in the Greater Khingan Mountains and southwestern forest regions of China, with predictions conducted at an event-based temporal scale using hourly inputs. The vegetation-fused model achieves an AUC of 0.93, outperforming models without vegetation fusion. Analysis of model outputs indicates that hourly maximum temperature, leaf area index weight, precipitation, and wind speed are key factors influencing lightning-ignited fire occurrence. This study demonstrates the value of semi-automated alignment and vegetation feature fusion for improving lightning-ignited fire prediction in heterogeneous landscapes, supporting regional wildfire risk assessment and potential early-warning applications. Full article

A thunderstorm is a weather system that can trigger severe natural disasters, characterized by sudden onset, short duration, and significant damage. Accurate forecasting of thunderstorms has long been a challenging task. Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have provided new solutions, yet AI-driven thunderstorm forecasting still lacks high-quality thunderstorm training datasets. Leveraging lightning data from the China Meteorological Administration’s Advanced Direction and Time-of-Arrival Detecting (ADTD) network and the three-dimensional Very Low Frequency/Low Frequency (VLF/LF) lightning location data of the Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, we have constructed an AI training dataset for thunderstorms over China (AITDTS) through four sequential procedures: rigorous data quality control, multi-source integration, thunderstorm-prone area labeling, and feature extraction. The AITDTS encompasses 85,071 thunderstorm events and 3,973,171 corresponding gridded samples at 10 min temporal resolution and 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution across China during 2016–2023. Each sample includes location labels, 38 radar-derived physical parameters with a 10-min temporal resolution and 62 environmental parameters with an hourly temporal resolution. We further quantified predictor information gain for thunderstorm forecasting: radar echo top/base heights, composite reflectivity, vertical integrated liquid water content and reflectivity at 10 km showed high information gain. Atmospheric instability, dynamic uplifting, moisture conditions and vertical wind shear at 1 km exhibited moderate information gain. The AITDTS can be directly applied to training and evaluation of AI-driven forecasting models, offering critical data for thunderstorm nowcasting. Full article

Lightning-induced forest fires represent a dominant natural ignition source in boreal and temperate ecosystems, yet their climatic and biophysical controls remain poorly understood. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of 646 lightning-induced forest fires across the Da Hinggan Ling region, Northeast China, during 2001–2024. Multi-source datasets from ERA5-Land, MODIS, and ETCCDI were integrated to quantify short-term meteorological variability, vegetation water status, and long-term climatic extremes. Using Random Forest and XGBoost models combined with SHAP interpretability analysis, we identified key predictors and nonlinear responses of burned area to environmental forcing. Results reveal pronounced interannual fluctuations in fire activity, with 2010, 2016, and 2022 emerging as compound extreme years characterized by co-occurring drought and heatwaves. Vegetation moisture index (NDMI), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and heatwave duration (HWDI) were the most influential variables controlling burned area variability. The total burned area and fire duration showed significant declining trends, while high burned-area fires exhibited spatial clustering in dry, low-LAI regions. These findings demonstrate that compound dry–hot conditions coupled with vegetation desiccation are the primary drivers of large lightning fires. The study provides a process-based understanding of climate–fuel–fire linkages and supports improved fire risk forecasting under a warming climate. Full article

To advance marine thunderstorm forecasting and enhance the operational utility of lightning data, this study developed a novel very low-frequency (VLF) lightning data assimilation scheme for the South China Sea region. The three-dimensional graupel mixing ratio field was successfully inverted from VLF lightning detection data through the application of an empirical formula linking lightning frequency to graupel mass, a database of graupel mixing ratio profiles, and a distance-weighted diffusion scheme. This reconstructed field was then subjected to horizontal diffusion and assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the Grid Nudging module within the WRF–Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (WRF-FDDA) system. A quantitative evaluation of 37 nocturnal marine convective cases was conducted using Fengyun-4A(FY-4A) satellite observations. The results demonstrate that the proposed assimilation method significantly enhances short-term (0–6 h) forecast performance. Specifically, the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) derived from the Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) data increased rapidly during the early forecast stage, exceeding a value of 0.9. Meanwhile, the Lightning Mapping Imager Event (LMIE) product evaluation showed a high probability of detection (POD) of 85% for lightning forecasts, with a false alarm ratio (FAR) of only 9%. These findings indicate that the assimilation approach improves the accuracy of capturing the spatial structure and evolution of convective systems. Although the degree of improvement diminished with longer lead times, the results confirm the value of VLF lightning data in initializing convective-scale processes and underscore its practical value in marine nowcasting applications. Full article

Lightning rods, while essential for protecting weather radars from direct lightning strikes, act as persistent non-meteorological scatterers that can interfere with signal transmission and reception and thereby degrade detection accuracy and product quality. Existing studies have mainly focused on X-band and C-band systems, and robust, measurement-based quantitative assessments for S-band dual-polarization radars remain scarce. In this study, a controllable tilting lightning rod, a high-precision Far-field Antenna Measurement System (FAMS), and an S-band dual-polarization weather radar (SAD radar) are jointly employed to systematically quantify lightning-rod impacts on antenna electromagnetic parameters under different rod elevation angles and azimuth configurations. Typical precipitation events were analyzed to evaluate the influence of the lightning rods on dual-polarization parameters. The results show that the lightning rod substantially elevates sidelobe levels, with a maximum enhancement of 4.55 dB, while producing only limited changes in the antenna main-beam azimuth and beamwidth. Differential reflectivity ($Z_{DR}$) is the most sensitive polarimetric parameter, exhibiting a persistent positive bias of about 0.24–0.25 dB in snowfall and mixed-phase precipitation, while no persistent azimuthal anomaly is evident during freezing rain; the co-polar correlation coefficient (${\rho }_{hv}$) is only marginally affected. Collectively, these results provide quantitative, far-field evidence of lightning-rod interference in S-band dual-polarization radars and provide practical guidance for more reasonable lightning-rod placement and configuration, as well as useful references for $Z_{DR}$-oriented polarimetric quality-control and correction strategies. Full article

To address the challenges of scarce labeled samples, strong instantaneity, and variable morphology in lightning optical classification—issues that traditional methods struggle to handle efficiently and often require extensive manual intervention—we propose a frame difference triplet network (FD-TripletNet) tailored for few-shot lightning recognition. The lightning optical dataset used in this study was collected from two observation stations over six months, comprising 459 video samples that include lightning events with diverse morphologies (e.g., branched, spherical) and non-lightning events prone to misclassification (e.g., strong light interference, moving objects). Considering the critical feature of lightning—abrupt single-frame changes—we introduce adjacent frame difference matrices as model input to explicitly capture transient brightness variations, reducing noise from static backgrounds. To enhance discriminative ability in few-shot scenarios, the model leverages Triplet Loss to compact intra-class features and separate inter-class features, combined with a dynamic sample matching strategy to focus on challenging cases. The experimental results show that FD-TripletNet achieves a classification accuracy of 94.8% on the dataset, outperforming traditional methods and baseline deep learning models. It effectively reduces the False Negative Rate (FNR) to 3.2% and False Positive Rate (FPR) to 7.4%, successfully distinguishing between lightning and non-lightning events, thus providing an efficient solution for real-time lightning monitoring in meteorological applications. Full article

A method for the second-harmonic generation (SHG) in optical fibers by exploiting the third-order nonlinearity under an external electric field is proposed. The analysis begins with the electric polarization vector of the SHG, and the analytical solution for the SHG is presented. When fiber birefringence is neglected, a mode-field matching condition is introduced. The nonlinearity-induced shift in propagation constant is provided based on Gaussian approximation. For a specific case, the power of SHG is calculated. The results show that the SHG power scales quadratically with the nonlinear coefficient. Reducing the effective area of the fiber and increasing the nonlinear coefficient can enhance the SHG power by 1–2 orders of magnitude. Since phase matching strongly affects the SHG process, optimizing the fiber design is crucial. Additionally, the polarization state of SHG is shown to have the same as the equivalent optical field of the injected fundamental wave. This work demonstrates potential for distributed sensing of electric fields and lightning events in high-voltage power grids using optical fibers. Full article

Accurate lightning data are critical for disaster warning and climate research. This study systematically compares the Fengyun-4A Lightning Mapping Imager (FY-4A LMI) satellite and the Advanced Time-of-arrival and Direction (ADTD) lightning location network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region (April–August, 2020–2023) using coefficient of variation (CV) analysis, Welch’s independent samples t-test, Pearson correlation analysis, and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. Key results: (1) A significant systematic discrepancy exists between the two datasets, with an annual mean ratio of 0.0636 (t = −5.1758, p < 0.01); FY-4A LMI shows higher observational stability (CV = 5.46%), while ADTD excels in capturing intense lightning events (CV = 28.01%). (2) Both datasets exhibit a consistent unimodal monthly pattern peaking in July (moderately strong positive correlation, r = 0.7354, p < 0.01) but differ distinctly in diurnal distribution. (3) High-density lightning areas of both datasets concentrate south of the Yanshan Mountains and east of the Taihang Mountains, shaped by topography and water vapor transport. This study reveals the three-factor (climatic background, topographic forcing, technical characteristics) coupled regulatory mechanism of data discrepancies and highlights the complementarity of the two datasets, providing a solid scientific basis for satellite-ground data fusion and regional lightning disaster defense. Full article

Climate change is widely recognized as a significant contributor to both wildfire initiation and spread, conditions such as high temperatures and prolonged droughts facilitating the rapid ignition and propagation of fires. As a result, extreme weather events can trigger fires through lightning strikes with increases in frequency and severity. Despite this, we argue that it is important to distinguish and clarify the concepts of fire occurrence and fire spread, as these phenomena are not directly synonymous in the field of fire ecology. This review examined the published literature to determine if climate factors contribute to fire occurrence and/or spread, and evaluated how well the concepts are used when drawing connections between fire occurrence and fire spread related to climate variables. Using the PRISMA bibliographic analysis methodology, 70 scientific articles were analyzed, including reviews and research papers in the last 5 years. According to the analysis, most publications dealing with fire occurrence, fire spread, and climate change come from the northern hemisphere, specifically from the United States, China, Europe, and Oceania with South America appearing to be significantly underrepresented (less than 10% of published articles). Additionally, despite climatic variables being the most prevalent factors in predictive models, only 38% of the studies analyzed simultaneously integrated climatic, topographic, vegetational, and anthropogenic factors when assessing wildfires. Furthermore, of the 47 studies that explicitly addressed occurrence and spread, 66 percent used the term “occurrence” in line with its definition cited by the authors, that is, referring specifically to ignition. In contrast, 27 percent employed the term in a broader sense that did not explicitly denote the moment a fire starts, often incorporating aspects such as the predisposition of fuels to burn. The remaining 73 percent focused exclusively on “spread.” Hence, caution is advised when making generalizations as climate impact on wildfires can be overestimated in predictive models when conceptual ambiguity is present. Our results showed that, although climate change can amplify conditions for fire spread and contribute to the occurrence of fire, anthropogenic factors remain the most significant factor related to the onset of fires on a global scale, above climatic factors. Full article

We report the results achieved by the Experiment to Study Thunderstorm High-Energy Radiation (ESTHER), a small ground-based project devoted to the investigation of high-energy radiation in thunderstorms, installed on Mt. Etna (Italy), during the first observational campaign of summer 2024. The experimental setup was installed at high altitude, at the Citelli Refuge (1741 m a.s.l.) and at the Etnean Observatory (2818 m a.s.l.), and acquired data for more than 4 months, experiencing 22 days of thunderstorms and recording correlated variations in the gamma-ray background. The most interesting result encountered during these first data takes is the detection of a 6.3 min high-energy event that occurred during an intense thunderstorm, which was recorded at the first installation site, on 22 July 2024. The gamma-ray detection system revealed a high-energy emission consisting of several episodes: an initial weak gamma-ray glowing, a following shallow prolonged emission, and a final intense burst. The last two episodes exhibited a remarkable 511 keV emission, with the last burst releasing more than 12% of its total counts within $511\pm 25$ keV and exhibiting a count rate in that energy range five times higher than that typically encountered in the environmental background. We interpret this emission as the possible result of positron annihilation occurring inside the parent thundercloud. Several lightning discharges took place nearby the installation site, with the closest one occurring at less than 500 m from the detectors, just before the onset of the final burst dominated by positron annihilation. Full article

This study presents a comparative analysis of two rare thundersnow events accompanied by snowfall that occurred on 11 November 2023 and 10 December 2023 in Shaanxi province, China. Multiple data sources were integrated, including MICAPS surface and upper-air conventional detection observations, hourly meteorological records from Yanliang Airport, lightning location data, and ERA5 reanalysis, to examine and contrast the synoptic conditions, moisture transport mechanisms, and convective characteristics underlying these two events. The results indicate that the large-scale circulation patterns were characterized by a “high in the west and low in the east” configuration and a “two troughs-one ridge” pattern for the November and December cases, respectively. In both episodes, Shaanxi Province was located on the rear side of a high-pressure ridge, where a strong pressure gradient induced pronounced northerly winds that advected cold air southward, forming a distinct near-surface cold pool. During the November event, the convective cloud system developed east of the Tibetan plateau, guided by a westerly flow, and propagated eastward while gradually weakening, with a minimum brightness temperature of −42 °C. Conversely, in December, the convective activity initiated over southwestern Shaanxi and moved northeastward under a southwesterly flow, reaching a lower minimum brightness temperature of −55 °C, indicative of stronger vertical development. In both events, the principal water vapor transport occurred near the 700 hPa height level and was primarily sourced from the Bay of Bengal via a southwesterly flow. The November event featured a stronger northwesterly cold-air intrusion, whereas the December case exhibited a broader moisture channel. The CAPE values peaked during the afternoon and nighttime periods in both cases. The cold-pool and inversion-layer thickness were approximately 2 km/45 hPa in November and 0.8 km/150 hPa in December. Full article

Lightning is the primary natural cause of wildfires in mid- to high-latitude forests, and it is increasing in frequency under climate change. Traditional fire danger forecasts, reliant on standard meteorological data, often fail to capture extreme events and future risk. To address this issue, we integrate extreme climate indices with meteorological, vegetation, soil, and topographic data, and apply four machine learning methods to build probabilistic models for lightning fire occurrence. The results show that incorporating extreme climate indices significantly improves model performance. Among the models, XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (87.4%) and AUC (0.903), clearly outperforming traditional fire weather indices (accuracy 60%–71%). Model interpretation with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) further revealed the driving mechanisms and interaction effects of extreme factors. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices contributed nearly 60% to fire occurrence, with growing season length (GSL), minimum of daily maximum temperature (TXn), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) identified as key drivers. In contrast, heavy precipitation indices exerted a suppressing effect. Compound hot and dry conditions amplified fuel aridity and markedly increased ignition probability. This interpretable framework improves short-term lightning fire prediction and offers quantitative support for risk warning and resource allocation in a warming climate. Full article

Lightning-ignited wildfires represent a dominant natural disturbance agent in the Greater Khingan Mountains of northeastern China; however, the relationship between their occurrence and lightning characteristics remains insufficiently quantified. This study analyzed cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data (2019–2024) and 417 lightning-ignited wildfires (2019–2024) using a full-waveform lightning detection network and spatial matching based on the Minimum Distance Method. Lightning activity shows pronounced spatiotemporal clustering, with more than 93% of flashes occurring in summer and a diurnal peak at 15:00. About 74.6% of wildfires ignited within 1 km of a lightning strike, and the holdover time exhibited clear seasonality, peaking in August (≈317 h). Negative CG (−CG) flashes dominated ignition events (56.5% multiple-stroke, average multiplicity = 2.60), and igniting flashes were concentrated within the −10 to −30 kA peak-current range, suggesting a key threshold for ignition. Vegetation type strongly influenced ignition efficiency: cold temperate and temperate coniferous forests recorded the highest lightning and fire counts, while alpine grasslands and sedge meadows showed the highest lightning ignition efficiency (LIE). These findings clarify how lightning electrical properties and vegetation conditions jointly determine ignition probability and provide a scientific basis for improving lightning-ignited wildfire risk monitoring and early-warning systems in boreal forest regions. Full article

High-voltage ceramic insulators are routinely exposed to short-duration overvoltages such as lightning impulses, switching surges, and partial discharges. These events occur on microsecond to millisecond timescales and can produce highly localized thermal spikes that are difficult to measure directly but may compromise long-term material integrity. This paper addresses the estimation of the internal temperature distribution immediately after a lightning impulse by solving a three-dimensional inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP). The forward problem is modeled by the transient heat diffusion equation with constant thermal diffusivity, discretized using the finite element method (FEM). Surface temperature measurements are assumed available from a 12 kV ceramic post insulator and are used to reconstruct the unknown initial condition. To address the ill-posedness of the IHCP, a spatio-temporal regularization framework is introduced and compared against spatial-only regularization. Numerical experiments investigate the effect of measurement time ($T=60$ s, 600 s, and 1800 s), mesh resolution (element sizes of 20 mm, 15 mm, and 10 mm), and measurement noise ($\sigma =1$ K and 5 K). The results show that spatio-temporal regularization significantly improves reconstruction accuracy and robustness to noise, particularly when early-time measurements are available. Moreover, it is observed that mesh refinement enhances accuracy but yields diminishing returns when measurements are delayed. These findings demonstrate the potential of spatio-temporal IHCP methods as a diagnostic tool for the condition monitoring of ceramic insulators subjected to transient electrical stresses. Full article