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Fire
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Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger
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Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger

A special issue of Fire (ISSN 2571-6255).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 11 November 2025 | Viewed by 9607

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Tongxin Hu

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
Interests: forest fire
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Wei Chen

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Interests: remote sensing; forest; wetland

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We invite you to submit research manuscripts concerning technologies and approaches applied to the effects of climate change on fire danger.

Globally, fires are one of the most serious disturbances and are particularly prevalent in forests. Forest fires promote dynamic changes in ecosystem structure and function, have positive and negative impacts on ecosystems, and have a profound impact on human life and regional developments. With climate change and global warming, the frequency of forest fires is increasing and receives increasing attention as an integral part of global environmental change studies.

This Special Issue aims to collect research articles and reviews on original and innovative research regarding applications, methodologies, case studies, and reviews on new technologies and analytical methodologies dedicated to assessing fire danger and fire effects under climate change. Research areas may include (but are not limited to) the following:

  1. Remote sensing for post-fire mapping;
  2. GIS applied in wildfire management;
  3. Forest fire detection and monitoring;
  4. Wildfire risk assessment under climate change;
  5. Wildfire behavior and prediction;
  6. Forest fire statistics and spatiotemporal variation;
  7. Prescribed burning effect on forest ecosystem.

I look forward to receiving your contributions.

Dr. Tongxin Hu
Dr. Wei Chen
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Fire is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • post-fire mapping
  • wildfire behavior
  • wildfire risk
  • fire weather
  • fire detection
  • remote sensing
  • GIS
  • spatial analysis

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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14 pages, 2684 KiB  
Article
Research on Wildfire and Soil Water: A Bibliometric Analysis from 1990 to 2023
by Fenglin Zuo, Qichao Yao, Lamei Shi, Zhou Wang, Maowei Bai, Keyan Fang, Futao Guo, Lihua Yuan and Weikang Zhang
Fire 2024, 7(12), 434; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7120434 - 26 Nov 2024
Viewed by 524
Abstract
In the context of climate change, wildfires occur more frequently and significantly impact the vegetation–soil–water continuum. Soil water is a critical factor for understanding wildfire occurrence and predicting wildfire hazards. However, there is a lack of specific bibliometric analysis of the research on [...] Read more.
In the context of climate change, wildfires occur more frequently and significantly impact the vegetation–soil–water continuum. Soil water is a critical factor for understanding wildfire occurrence and predicting wildfire hazards. However, there is a lack of specific bibliometric analysis of the research on the mechanisms by which soil water influences wildfire occurrence. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric analysis of wildfire and soil water, aiming to understand their relationship, research characteristics, and future development trends. We used the Bibliometrix software package in R 4.4.0, which provides different methods for analyzing bibliometric data. A total of 1585 publications were analyzed from 1990 to 2023. The results of the study showed that the number of publications showed an overall growth trend during the period, with an average annual increase rate of 4.4%. The average annual citations per paper exhibited a pattern of rapid increase, followed by slow growth, and then rapid decrease. Ten highly productive authors in the field contributed 12.2% of the total publications during this period. Over the past 30 years, the University of Aveiro has consistently ranked first in terms of paper quantity. Most of the top ten productive institutions are in the United States, Australia, and several European countries. Fifty-eight countries engage in research related to wildfires and soil water, with close collaboration observed between the United States, Canada, and Spain. The four most frequently used keywords are “wildfire”, “fire”, “water repellency”, and “runoff” (with a total frequency of 1385). Water properties relevant to soil characteristics in the word cloud primarily include hydrophobicity, runoff, erosion, and infiltration. Erosion, wildfires, and runoff are crucial in the field but have yet to receive substantial development. The correlation of post-wildfire soil water properties with infiltration, runoff, and erosion processes is most likely to be addressed in future research. The findings will help researchers assess the post-wildfire disaster chain and its impact on the ecological environment, with clear trends, gaps, and research directions in the areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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10 pages, 4032 KiB  
Communication
Driving Factors and Future Trends of Wildfires in Alberta, Canada
by Maowei Bai, Qichao Yao, Zhou Wang, Di Wang, Hao Zhang, Keyan Fang and Futao Guo
Fire 2024, 7(11), 419; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7110419 - 18 Nov 2024
Viewed by 679
Abstract
Departures from historical wildfire regimes due to climate change have significant implications for the structure and composition of forests, as well as for fire management and operations in the Alberta region of Canada. This study analyzed the relationship between climate and wildfire and [...] Read more.
Departures from historical wildfire regimes due to climate change have significant implications for the structure and composition of forests, as well as for fire management and operations in the Alberta region of Canada. This study analyzed the relationship between climate and wildfire and used a random forest algorithm to predict future wildfire frequencies in Alberta, Canada. Key factors driving wildfires were identified as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sea surface temperature (SST), maximum temperature (Tmax), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). Projections indicate an increase in wildfire frequencies from 918 per year during 1970–1999 to 1151 per year during 2040–2069 under a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (RCP 4.5) and to 1258 per year under a high GHG emission scenario (RCP 8.5). By 2070–2099, wildfire frequencies are projected to increase to 1199 per year under RCP 4.5 and to 1555 per year under RCP 8.5. The peak number of wildfires is expected to shift from May to July. These findings suggest that projected GHG emissions will substantially increase wildfire danger in Alberta by 2099, posing increasing challenges for fire suppression efforts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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13 pages, 3621 KiB  
Article
Wildfire Burnt Area and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Mediterranean: Developing a Robust Estimation Approach
by Tim van der Schriek, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Anna Karali and Christos Giannakopoulos
Fire 2024, 7(9), 324; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7090324 - 17 Sep 2024
Viewed by 1038
Abstract
Wildfires burn annually over 400,000 ha in Mediterranean countries. By the end of the 21st century, wildfire Burnt Area (BA) and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions may double to triple due to climate change. Regional projections of future BA are urgently required [...] Read more.
Wildfires burn annually over 400,000 ha in Mediterranean countries. By the end of the 21st century, wildfire Burnt Area (BA) and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions may double to triple due to climate change. Regional projections of future BA are urgently required to update wildfire policies. We present a robust methodology for estimating regional wildfire BA and GHG emissions under future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean. The Fire Weather Index, selected drought indices, and meteorological variables were correlated against BA/GHG emissions data to create area-specific statistical projection models. State-of-the-art regional climate models (horizontal resolution: 12 km), developed within the EURO-CORDEX initiative, simulated data under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) up to 2070. These data drove the statistical models to estimate future wildfire BA and GHG emissions in three pilot areas in Greece, Montenegro, and France. Wildfire BA is projected to increase by 20% to 130% up to 2070, depending on the study area and climate scenario. The future expansion of fire-prone areas into the north Mediterranean and mountain environments is particularly alarming, given the large biomass present here. Fire-smart landscape management may, however, greatly reduce the projected future wildfire BA and GHG increases. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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14 pages, 3566 KiB  
Article
Effect of Climate Evolution on the Dynamics of the Wildfires in Greece
by Nikolaos Iliopoulos, Iasonas Aliferis and Michail Chalaris
Fire 2024, 7(5), 162; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7050162 - 6 May 2024
Viewed by 1723
Abstract
Understanding the potential effects of climate change on forest fire behavior and the resulting release of combustion products is critical for effective mitigation strategies in Greece. This study utilizes data from the MAGICC 2.4 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change) [...] Read more.
Understanding the potential effects of climate change on forest fire behavior and the resulting release of combustion products is critical for effective mitigation strategies in Greece. This study utilizes data from the MAGICC 2.4 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change) climate model and the SCENGEN 2.4 (SCENarioGENerator) database to assess these impacts. By manipulating various model parameters such as climate sensitivity, scenario, time period, and global climate models (GCMs) within the SCENGEN 2.4 database, we analyzed climatic trends affecting forest fire generation and evolution. The results reveal complex and nuanced findings, indicating a need for further investigation. Case studies are conducted using the FARSITE 4 (Fire Area Simulator) model, incorporating meteorological changes derived from climate trends. Simulations of two fires in East Attica, accounting for different fuel and meteorological conditions, demonstrate an increase in the rate of combustion product release. This underscores the influence of changing meteorological parameters on forest fire dynamics and highlights the importance of proactive measures to mitigate future risks. Our findings emphasize the urgency of addressing climate change impacts on wildfire behavior to safeguard environmental and public health in Greece. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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21 pages, 4957 KiB  
Article
Modification and Comparison of Methods for Predicting the Moisture Content of Dead Fuel on the Surface of Quercus mongolica and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica under Rainfall Conditions
by Tongxin Hu, Linggan Ma, Yuanting Gao, Jiale Fan and Long Sun
Fire 2023, 6(10), 379; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6100379 - 5 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1845
Abstract
The surface fine dead fuel moisture content (FFMC) is an important factor in predicting forest fire risk and is influenced by various meteorological factors. Many prediction methods rely on temperature and humidity as factors, resulting in poor model prediction accuracy under rainfall conditions. [...] Read more.
The surface fine dead fuel moisture content (FFMC) is an important factor in predicting forest fire risk and is influenced by various meteorological factors. Many prediction methods rely on temperature and humidity as factors, resulting in poor model prediction accuracy under rainfall conditions. At the same time, there is an increasing number of methods based on machine learning, but there is still a lack of comparison with traditional models. Therefore, this paper selected the broad-leaved forest tree species Quercus mongolica and the coniferous forest species Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Northeast China. Taking surface dead fine fuel as the research object, we used indoor simulated rainfall experiments to explore the impact of rainfall on the surface dead fuel moisture content. The prediction model for surface dead fuel moisture content was modified by the direct estimation method. Finally, using field data, the direct estimation method and convolution neural network (CNN) model were used in the comparison. The rainfall simulation results showed that the indoor fuel moisture content had a logarithmic increasing trend. Rainfall and previous fuel moisture content had a significant impact on the fuel moisture content prediction model, and both the relational model and nonlinear model performed well in predicting fuel moisture content under indoor rainfall conditions. Under field conditions, humidity, temperature and rainfall played a significant role in fuel moisture content. Compared with the unmodified direct estimation method, the modified direct estimation method significantly improved the prediction accuracy and the goodness of fit (R2) increased from 0.85–0.94 to 0.94–0.96. Mean absolute error (MAE) decreased from 9.18–18.33% to 6.86–10.74%, and mean relative error (MRE) decreased from 3.97–17.18% to 3.53–14.48%. The modified direct estimation method has higher prediction accuracy compared with the convolutional neural network model; the R2 value was above 0.90, MAE was below 8.11%, and MRE was below 8.87%. The modified direct estimation method had the best prediction effect among them. This study has a certain reference value for the prediction model of surface fuel moisture content in post-rainfall fire risk assessment and is also of great significance for forest fire management in Northeast China. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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12 pages, 3155 KiB  
Article
Investigating Drought Events and Their Consequences in Wildfires: An Application in China
by Song Yang, Aicong Zeng, Mulualem Tigabu, Guangyu Wang, Zhen Zhang, He Zhu and Futao Guo
Fire 2023, 6(6), 223; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire6060223 - 2 Jun 2023
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1943
Abstract
Understanding the impact of drought on fire dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential effects of climate change on wildfire activity in China. In this study, we present a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) models linking burned area (BA) during mainland China’s [...] Read more.
Understanding the impact of drought on fire dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential effects of climate change on wildfire activity in China. In this study, we present a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) models linking burned area (BA) during mainland China’s fire season from 2001 to 2019, across seven regions, to concurrent drought, antecedent drought, and time trend. We estimated burned area using Collection 6 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectradiometer (MODIS) and drought indicators using either the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) or the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). Our findings indicate that the wildfire season displays a spatial variation pattern that increases with latitude, with the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), and Central China (CC) regions identified as the primary areas of wildfire occurrence. Concurrent and antecedent drought conditions were found to have varying effects across regions, with concurrent drought as the dominant predictor for NEC and Southeast China (SEC) regions and antecedent drought as the key predictor for most regions. We also found that the Northwest China (NWC) and CC regions exhibit a gradual decrease in burned area over time, while the NEC region showed a slight increase. Our multiple linear regression models exhibited a notable level of predictive power, as evidenced by the average correlation coefficient of 0.63 between the leave-one-out cross-validation predictions and observed values. In particular, the NEC, NWC, and CC regions demonstrated strong correlations of 0.88, 0.80, and 0.76, respectively. This indicates the potential of our models to contribute to the prediction of future wildfire occurrences and the development of effective wildfire management and prevention strategies. Nevertheless, the intricate relationship among fire, climate change, human activities, and vegetation distribution may limit the generalizability of these findings to other conditions. Consequently, future research should consider a broad range of factors to develop more comprehensive models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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8 pages, 604 KiB  
Perspective
Weighing Policy Effectiveness Through Recent Forest Fire Status
by Guangming Wu, Qichao Yao, Maowei Bai, Lamei Shi, Zhou Wang, Keyan Fang, Futao Guo and Yanyan Pei
Fire 2024, 7(12), 432; https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7120432 - 25 Nov 2024
Viewed by 357
Abstract
Forest fires pose a great threat to the global ecological environment as well as human life and the safety of property. Formulating effective policies for preventing forest fires is not only a scientific concern but also an urgent need for government management. Canada [...] Read more.
Forest fires pose a great threat to the global ecological environment as well as human life and the safety of property. Formulating effective policies for preventing forest fires is not only a scientific concern but also an urgent need for government management. Canada and China both have extensive forest areas but have different fire management strategies. Canada primarily focuses on fire suppression while China pays more attention on fire prevention. This difference led to significant discrepancies in the forest fire regimes between the two countries, providing an opportunity to explore the impact of fire management policies on forest fire. By analyzing the fire occurrences in Canada and China since 1990, combining the fire prevention funds and fire management strategies, this paper discussed the influence of different policies on fire occurrence. Previously, Canada’s forest suppression strategy has been widely recognized internationally, but recent widespread fires indicate that its fire management policy may still require further improvement to cope with future global warming. Although China’s fire prevention strategy can effectively control current forest fires, the lack of fundamental theories on forest fires and the backwardness of fire prevention technology and equipment may increase the likelihood of major forest fires in the future. As global warming continues to intensify in the future, the length of the forest fire season and the intensity of fires will increase, making it urgent to develop more effective forest fire prevention and suppression policies to achieve sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Climate Change on Fire Danger)
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