Search Results (5,727)

To ensure water source security and sustainability of the national major strategic project “South-to-North Water Diversion”, this study aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the ecosystem service value (ESV) in its water source area from 2002 to 2022. This study reveals its changing trends and main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Quantitative assessment of the ESV of the region was carried out using the Equivalence Factor Method (EFM), aiming to provide scientific support for ecological protection and resource management decision-making. In the past 20 years, the ESV has shown an upward trend year by year, increasing by 96%. The regions with the highest ESV were Garzê Prefecture and Aba Prefecture, which increased by 130.3% and 60.6%, respectively. The ESV of Xinlong county, Danba county, Rangtang county, and Daofu county increased 4.8 times, 1.5 times, 12.5 times, and 8.9 times, respectively. In the last two decades, arable land has decreased by 91%, while the proportions of bare land and water have decreased by 84% and 91%, respectively. Grassland had the largest proportion. Forests and grasslands, vital for climate regulation, water cycle management, and biodiversity conservation, have expanded by 74% and 43%, respectively. It can be seen from Moran’s I index values that the dataset as a whole showed a slight positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from −0.041396 to 0.046377. This study reveals the changing trends in ESV and the main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Full article

Trachypteris picta (Pallas, 1773) is a significant pest that can cause serious damage to poplars and willows. To assess the impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of T. picta, this study conducted a comparative analysis of its global suitable habitats using climatic factors, global land use type, and global vegetation from different periods, in combination with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results indicate that the annual mean temperature (Bio01), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), and isothermality (Bio03) are the four most important climate variables determining the distribution of T. picta. Under the current climate conditions, the highly suitable areas are primarily located in southern Europe, covering an area of 2.22 × 10⁶ km². Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat for T. picta is expected to expand and shift towards higher latitudes. In the 2050s, the SSP5-8.5 scenario has the largest suitable area compared to other scenarios, while the SSP2-4.5 scenario has the largest suitable area in the 2090s. In addition, the centroids of the total suitable areas are expected to shift toward higher latitudes under future climate conditions. The results of this study provide valuable data for the monitoring, control, and management of this pest. Full article

In response to the escalating climate crisis, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) has become a top priority for both the public and private sectors. The pavement industry plays a key role in this transition, offering innovative technologies that minimize environmental impacts without compromising performance. Among these, the incorporation of recycled tire rubber and warm-mix asphalt (WMA) additives represents a promising strategy to reduce energy consumption and resource depletion in road construction. This study conducts a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental performance of an asphalt pavement incorporating recycled rubber and a WMA additive—referred to as R-W asphalt—against a conventional hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement. The analysis follows the ISO 14040/44 standards, covering material production, transport, construction, and maintenance. Two service-life scenarios are considered: one assuming equivalent durability and another with a five-year extension for the R-W pavement. The results demonstrate environmental impact reductions of up to 57%, with average savings ranging from 32% to 52% across key impact categories such as climate change, land use, and resource use. These benefits are primarily attributed to lower production temperatures and extended maintenance intervals. The findings underscore the potential of R-W asphalt as a cleaner engineering solution aligned with circular economy principles and climate mitigation goals. Full article

Vegetation dynamics are complexly influenced by multiple factors such as climate, human activities, and topography. In recent years, the frequency, intensity, and diversity of human activities have increased, placing substantial pressure on the growth of vegetation. Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, and climate change and large-scale ecological restoration have led to significant changes in the dynamic of dryland vegetation. However, few studies have explored the nonlinear relationships between these factors and vegetation dynamic. In this study, we integrated trend analysis (using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimation) and machine learning algorithms (XGBoost-SHAP model) based on long time-series remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020 to quantify the nonlinear response patterns and threshold effects of bioclimatic variables, topographic features, soil attributes, and anthropogenic factors on vegetation dynamic. The results revealed the following key findings: (1) The kNDVI in the study area showed an overall significant increasing trend (p < 0.01) during the observation period, of which 26.7% of the area showed a significant increase. (2) The water content index (Bio 23, 19.6%), the change in land use (15.2%), multi-year average precipitation (pre, 15.0%), population density (13.2%), and rainfall seasonality (Bio 15, 10.9%) were the key factors driving the dynamic change of vegetation, with the combined contribution of natural factors amounting to 64.3%. (3) Among the topographic factors, altitude had a more significant effect on vegetation dynamics, with higher altitude regions less likely to experience vegetation greening. Both natural and anthropogenic factors exhibited nonlinear responses and interactive effects, contributing to the observed dynamic trends. This study provides valuable insights into the driving mechanisms behind the condition of vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions of China and, by extension, in other arid regions globally. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

Floods are natural hazards that have the greatest socioeconomic impact worldwide, given that 23% of the global population live in urban areas at risk of flooding. In this field of research, the analysis of flood risk has traditionally been studied based mainly on approaches specific to civil engineering such as hydraulics and hydrology. However, these patterns of approaching the problem in research seem to be changing in recent years. During the last few years, a growing trend has been observed towards the use of methodology-based approaches oriented towards urban planning and land use management. In this context, this study analyzes the evolution of these research patterns in the field by developing a bibliometric meta-analysis of 2694 scientific publications on this topic published in recent decades. Evaluating keyword co-occurrence using VOSviewer software version 1.6.20, we analyzed how phenomena such as climate change have modified the way of addressing the study of this problem, giving growing weight to the use of integrated approaches improving territorial planning or implementing adaptive strategies, as opposed to the more traditional vision of previous decades, which only focused on the construction of hydraulic infrastructures for flood control. Full article

Climate change mitigation Official Development Assistance (ODA) primarily aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in developing countries while also seeking to enhance human welfare as a fundamental goal of development aid. This study investigates whether climate mitigation ODA contributes to achieving the principles of the doughnut framework—staying within the ecological ceiling (mitigating GHG emissions) while meeting the social foundation (enhancing human development index, HDI). We analyzed data from 77 developing countries between 2010 and 2020, including subgroup analyses by income level (high-, middle-, and low-income groups), using an instrumental variable–fixed effect approach. The results show that climate change mitigation ODA significantly improved the HDI but had no impact on reducing overall GHG emissions, including fossil fuel-based and land use change and forestry-based mitigations. When disaggregated by income level, ODA was found to improve the HDI and reduce fossil fuel-based GHG emission in low-income countries; however, these effects weakened as income levels increased. Across all income groups, there was no significant reduction in GHG emissions resulting from land use change or forestry. These findings suggest that climate change mitigation ODA can yield a greater impact when prioritized for low-income countries and that current ODA strategies for addressing GHG emissions related to land use change and forestry should be reconsidered. Full article

Urban air pollution remains a significant environmental and public health issue, especially in European coastal cities such as Klaipėda. However, there is still a lack of local-scale knowledge on how land use structure influences pollutant distribution, highlighting the need to address this gap. This study addresses this by examining the spatial distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in Klaipėda’s seaport city and several inland and coastal resort towns in Lithuania. The research specifically asks how different land cover types and demographic factors affect NO₂ variability and population exposure risk. Data were collected using passive sampling methods and analyzed within a GIS environment. The results revealed clear air quality differences between industrial/port zones and greener resort areas, confirmed by statistically significant associations between land cover types and pollutant levels. Based on these findings, a Land Use Pollution Pressure index (LUPP) and its population-weighted variant (PLUPP) were developed to capture demographic sensitivity. These indices provide a practical decision-support tool for sustainable urban planning, enabling the assessment of pollution risks and the forecasting of air quality changes under different land use scenarios, while contributing to local climate adaptation and urban environmental governance. Full article

This article examines the role of managed ecosystems, and particularly forests, in achieving carbon neutrality in Russia. The range of estimates of Russia’s forests’ net carbon balance in different studies varies by up to 7 times. The. A comparison of Russia’s National GHG inventory data for 2023 and 2024 (with the latter showing 37% higher forest sequestration) is presented and explained. The possible changes in the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy of Russia (LT LEDS) carbon neutrality scenario due to new land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) data in National GHG Inventory Document (NID) 2024 are discussed. It is demonstrated that the refined net carbon balance should not impact the mitigation ambition in the Russian forestry sector. An assessment of changes in the drafts of the Operational plan of the LT LEDS is presented and it is concluded that its structure and content have significantly improved; however, a delay in operationalization nullifies efforts. The article highlights the problem of GHG emissions increases in forest fires and compares the gap between official “ground-based” and Remote Sensing approaches in calculations of such emissions. Considering the intention to increase net absorption by implementing forest carbon projects, the latest changes in the regulations of such projects are discussed. The limitations of reforestation carbon projects in Russia are provided. Proposals are presented for the development of the national forest policy towards increasing the net forest carbon absorption, including considering the projected decrease in annual net absorption by Russian forests by 2050. The role of government and private investment in improving the forest management of structural measures to adapt forestry to modern climate change and the place of forest climate projects need to be clearly defined in the LT LEDS. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

Solid biomass (agro-residue) is the most important source of renewable energy. The accelerating impacts of climate change and global population growth contribute to air pollution through the use of fossil fuels. These processes increase the demand for energy. The European Union has adopted a climate action plan to address the above challenges. The main aim of this study was to assess the economic performance of the producers of biomass for energy generation in Poland. The detailed objectives were to determine land resources in the studied agricultural farms and to determine the value of fixed and current assets in the analyzed farms. We used questionnaires as the main method to collect data. Purposive sampling was used to choose the farms. We conducted various tests to analyze the revenues from biomass sales and their normality, such as the Dornik–Hansen test, the Shapiro–Wilk test, the Liliefors test, and the Jargue–Berra statistical test. Moreover, we conducted regression analysis to find factors that are the basis for the economic performance (incomes) of farms that sell biomass. Results: This study demonstrated that biomass sales had a minor impact on the performance of agricultural farms, but they enabled farmers to maintain their position on the market. The economic analysis was carried out on a representative group of Polish agricultural farms, taking into account fixed and current assets, land use, production structure, and employment. The findings indicate that a higher income from biomass sales was generally associated with better economic results per farm and per employee, although not always per hectare of land. This suggests that capital intensity and strategic resource management play a crucial role in the profitability of bioenergy-oriented agricultural production. Conclusions: We concluded that biomass sales had a negligible influence on farm income. But a small income from biomass sales could affect a farm’s economic viability. Full article

Arid regions, while providing essential ecosystem services, are among the most ecologically vulnerable worldwide. Understanding and monitoring their long-term vegetation dynamics is essential for accurate environmental assessment and climate adaptation strategies. This study examined the spatiotemporal variations and driving forces of the vegetation dynamics in arid Northwestern China during 2000 to 2020, using the annual peak fractional vegetation cover (FVC) as the primary indicator. The Sen’s slope estimator with the Mann–Kendall test and the coefficient of variation were employed to assess the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, while the Pearson correlation, geographic detector model and random forest model were applied to identify the dominant driving factors for FVC. The results indicated that (1) overall vegetation cover was low (averaged peak FVC = 0.191), showing a spatial pattern of higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast; high FVC values were primarily observed in mountainous areas and river corridors; (2) the annual peak FVC increased significantly at a rate of 0.0508 yr⁻¹, with 33.72% of the region showing significant improvements and 5.49% degradation; (3) the spatial pattern of FVC was shaped by the distribution of land use types (59.46%), while the temporal dynamics of FVC were driven by land use changes (16.37%) and the land use intensity (37.56%); (4) both the spatial pattern and the temporal dynamics were limited by the environmental conditions. These findings highlight the critical role of anthropogenic activities in shaping the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, particularly emphasizing the distinct contributions of changes in land use types and land use intensity. This study could provide a scientific basis for sustainable land management and restoration strategies in arid regions facing global changes. Full article

The ecological environment is crucial for human survival and development. As ecological issues become more pressing, studying the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological quality (EQ) and its driving mechanisms is vital for sustainable development. This study, based on MODIS data from 2000 to 2022 and the Google Earth Engine platform, constructs a remote sensing ecological index for the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration and analyzes its spatiotemporal evolution using Theil–Sen trend analysis, Hurst index (HI), and geographic detector. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2010, EQ improved, particularly from 2005 to 2010, with a significant increase in areas of excellent and good quality due to national policies and climate improvements. From 2010 to 2015, EQ degraded, with a sharp reduction in areas of excellent quality, likely due to urban expansion and industrial pressures. After 2015, EQ rebounded with successful governance measures. (2) The HI analysis indicates that future changes will continue the past trend, especially in areas like southeastern Chongzuo and northwestern Fangchenggang, where governance efforts were effective. (3) EQ shows a positive spatial correlation, with high-quality areas in central Nanning and Fangchenggang, and low-quality areas in Nanning and Beihai. After 2015, both high–high and low–low clusters showed changes, likely due to ecological governance measures. (4) NDBSI (dryness) is the main driver of EQ changes (q = 0.806), with significant impacts from NDVI (vegetation coverage), LST (heat), and WET (humidity). Urban expansion’s increase in impervious surfaces (NDBSI rise) and vegetation loss (NDVI decline) have a synergistic effect (q = 0.856), significantly affecting EQ. Based on these findings, it is recommended to control construction land expansion, optimize land use structure, protect ecologically sensitive areas, and enhance climate adaptation strategies to ensure continuous improvement in EQ. Full article

Eco-enzymatic stoichiometry provides a basis for understanding soil ecosystem functions, with implications for land management and ecological protection. Long-term climatic factors and human interferences have caused significant land-use transformations in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region, affecting various ecological functions, such as soil nutrient cycling and chemical element balance. It is currently unclear how large-scale land-use conversion affects soil ecological stoichiometry. In this study, 763 soil samples were collected across three land-use types: farmland, grassland, and forest land. In addition, changes in soil physicochemical properties and enzyme activity and stoichiometry were determined. The soil available phosphorus (SAP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were the highest in farmland soil. Bulk density, pH, SAP, TP, and NO₃⁻-N were lower in forest soil, whereas NH₄⁺-N, available nitrogen, soil organic carbon (SOC), available potassium, and the soil nutrient ratio increased. Land-use conversion promoted soil β-1,4-glucosidase, N-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase, and alkaline phosphatase activities, mostly in forest soil. The eco-enzymatic C:N ratio was higher in farmland soils but grassland soils had a higher enzymatic C:P and N:P. Soil microorganisms were limited by P nutrients in all land-use patterns. C limitation was the highest in farmland soil. The redundancy analysis indicated that the ecological stoichiometry in farmland was influenced by TN, whereas grass and forest soils were influenced by SOC. Overall, the conversion of cropland or grassland to complex land-use types can effectively enhance soil nutrients, enzyme activities, and ecosystem functions, providing valuable insights for ecological restoration and sustainable land management in alpine regions. Full article

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article