The Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia Until 2050 and the Role of Forests in Its Implementation

Abstract

This article examines the role of managed ecosystems, and particularly forests, in achieving carbon neutrality in Russia. The range of estimates of Russia’s forests’ net carbon balance in different studies varies by up to 7 times. The. A comparison of Russia’s National GHG inventory data for 2023 and 2024 (with the latter showing 37% higher forest sequestration) is presented and explained. The possible changes in the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy of Russia (LT LEDS) carbon neutrality scenario due to new land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) data in National GHG Inventory Document (NID) 2024 are discussed. It is demonstrated that the refined net carbon balance should not impact the mitigation ambition in the Russian forestry sector. An assessment of changes in the drafts of the Operational plan of the LT LEDS is presented and it is concluded that its structure and content have significantly improved; however, a delay in operationalization nullifies efforts. The article highlights the problem of GHG emissions increases in forest fires and compares the gap between official “ground-based” and Remote Sensing approaches in calculations of such emissions. Considering the intention to increase net absorption by implementing forest carbon projects, the latest changes in the regulations of such projects are discussed. The limitations of reforestation carbon projects in Russia are provided. Proposals are presented for the development of the national forest policy towards increasing the net forest carbon absorption, including considering the projected decrease in annual net absorption by Russian forests by 2050. The role of government and private investment in improving the forest management of structural measures to adapt forestry to modern climate change and the place of forest climate projects need to be clearly defined in the LT LEDS.

1. Introduction: The Background of the Situation and the Goals and Objectives of the Study

According to the 2015 Paris Agreement [1], all its parties must formulate and submit to the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) regarding long-term development strategies for low greenhouse gas emissions for the period up to 2050 by 2020. By November 2024, 74 countries had fulfilled this condition [2]. Russia began developing the Long-term low-emission Development Strategy of Russia (LT LEDS) in 2019, and on 29 October 2021, it was approved by the Government of the Russian Federation [3]. The LT-LEDS is a crucial framework that guides countries in aligning their developmental goals with the Paris Agreement’s objective to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. These strategies provide a roadmap for transitioning national economies towards sustainable, low-carbon models by the mid-century, integrating climate action with economic and social planning. LT-LEDS includes the strategies in the LULUCF sector aimed at reducing emissions and increasing absorption by ecosystems.

Russian forests occupy about 1/5 of the total forest area of the Earth. Forest resources are one of the few types of renewable natural resources, but forest management is not fully sustainable due to the pioneer type of forest management in some areas, increasing forest fires and forest pests. Only around 15% of forests are under lease for timber production forestry purposes. So, the management of more than 80% of forests could be re-oriented to other purposes, i.e., by increasing carbon sequestration. GHG emissions from forest ecosystems occur mainly because of forest fires and logging. Many Russian officials and representatives of large business believe that absorption by ecosystems, especially by forests, is the principal advantage of Russia if compared with many other countries. But in reality, there is a lack of studies on the carbon cost increase following forest fires and how a more than 200-year-old forest management model, oriented to coniferous monocultures and underestimation ecological significance of deciduous tree species (deciduous tree species normally have better carbon sequestration capacities than coniferous), correspond to actual climate challenges.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are key elements of the Paris Agreement that contribute to the achievement of its long-term goals. They reflect the efforts of specific countries to reduce emissions at the national level and to adapt to the effects of climate change. In accordance with the provisions of Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, each party prepares and sends to the UNFCCC secretariat its NDCs, which it adheres to and intends to achieve. These must be submitted once every 5 years. An LT LEDS should be linked to the current NDC, since both documents represent the official position of the country in the context of the implementation of the Paris Agreement. On 25 November 2020, Russia announced its first NDC within the framework of the implementation of the Paris Agreement—consistent with and ensuring a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 70% by 2030 compared to the 1990 level, considering the maximum possible absorption capacity of forests and other ecosystems, as well as the sustainable and balanced socio-economic development of the country [4]. At the same time, according to the National Inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs), the level of total net emissions in 2022 compared to the baseline in 1990 already amounts to 31.3% [5]. Various authors believe that this is mainly due to the collapse of the Soviet state’s high-carbon industry at the beginning of 1990s and the introduction of less carbon-intensive market-based industry, based on modern technological processes after the year 2000. No special measures for the decarbonization of the economy were implemented before 2020, so this indicates that the decrease in emissions happened due to technological modernization. The emission reduction trajectory is still not in line with the Paris Agreement’s targets, as Russia’s NDC may lead to a potentially significant increase in GHG emissions from current levels. Therefore, according to the Climate Action Tracker rating [6], Russian NDC is considered to be highly insufficient, since it corresponds to the trajectory of temperature growth up to 4 °C instead of keeping the temperature increase within 1.5–2 °C according to the Paris Agreement.

The strategic documents include the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2023), the Long-term Low-emission Development Strategy of Russia [7], the LT LEDS Operational plan drafts, the Nationally Determined Contribution [4], the Federal law № 492-by 26.12.2024 “On Amendments to the Forest Code of the Russian Federation” [8] and the new information on forest net carbon sequestration according to the amended Russian NID, based on the results of an on-going strategic VIP GZ project (The significant innovative project of national importance “Unified National Monitoring System of Climatically Active Substances” (VIP GZ)). The documents were analyzed for the conceptual basis of the proposed measures, the correctness of their formulations, their ability to increase the attractiveness of investments (co-investments) in forest climate projects from the corporate sector, including those on existing trends in carbon markets and international experience of business involvement in climate projects.

This research aimed to define and discuss the different scenarios of achieving carbon neutrality, taking into account new data related to LULUCF net GHG absorption published in the Russia National Inventory Document. These scenarios will be actively discussed by different stakeholders, belonging to the government, businesses and experts in coming months, before the new trajectory of carbon neutrality will be fixed in the strategic climate documents. The article specifically focuses on the role of managed forest ecosystems in achieving carbon neutrality and the ways of adapting forest management to low-carbon development.

2. Literature Review

In 2015, in the framework of the Paris Agreement, 195 countries committed to a global goal to achieve carbon neutrality in the second half of the 21st century. Over the past 2–3 years, there has been a sharp surge in publications on ways and approaches to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050–2060 [9,10,11,12,13]. An important segment of this discussion is the potential role and importance of carbon absorption by natural ecosystems, primarily forests, including within the framework of Nature-Based Solutions to climate change projects, both on a global scale [14,15,16] and in ambitious projects within the framework of South–South cooperation [17], as well as at the national level in Russia [18,19,20,21,22], China [23,24,25,26], the European Union [27,28] and developing countries [29,30], up to the level of individual industries [31] and companies.

It should be noted that estimates in the “Land use, land use change and forestry” (LULUCF) sector are characterized by relatively high uncertainty ranges. Thus, while GHG emissions in the energy sector are generally estimated with an uncertainty of less than 5%, in the LULUCF sector, carbon dioxide fluxes usually have an uncertainty of ±20–30%, and methane and nitrous oxide emissions have an uncertainty of a few hundred percent. Therefore, there is a significant risk of manipulating estimates in this sector to present the best result regarding mitigation in different countries.

On the other hand, countries reporting on anthropogenic GHG emissions and absorption should, first of all, provide incentives for countries to step up efforts to further reduce emissions and increase absorption [20]. Therefore, it may not fully coincide with scientific estimates of the annual GHG balance of all the ecosystems in countries. At the moment, uncontrolled human fluxes of GHGs from the melting of permafrost in the Arctic zone are not included in carbon reporting; however, if a decision is made to include them, this may seriously affect the GHG balance in the LULUCF. In particular, this may reduce incentives to fight forest fires due to the disparity in the size of these fluxes.

It has been shown that Canada’s GHG reporting approach may lead to climate mitigation policies that are ineffectual or detrimental to reducing net carbon in the global atmosphere [32]. Until recently, the data showed that the remote sensing estimates used to quantify carbon losses from global forests are characterized by considerable uncertainty, and that we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates [14], although satellites have detected a global increase in emissions from forest fires [33,34]. Climate change leads to a significant increase in the risk of fire in forests, especially in areas with a sharply continental climate (Siberia, Yakutia, Amur region). With the predicted increase in summer temperatures and adverse weather events, a further increase in the flammability of forests can be expected [35,36]. Forested areas of Siberia, which were previously considered the leading net carbon sinks, may become a net source of GHGs in the future [37,38,39]. In addition, many researchers have analyzed the carbon balance by considering only data on carbon dioxide (CO₂), without considering other GHG types (e.g., methane CH₄) in the carbon balance.

Russia’s carbon neutrality and ways to achieve it.

The goals of achieving carbon neutrality in Russia were fixed in the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 812 of 26 October 2023, “On approval of the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation”. According to the LT LEDS, Russia will strive to achieve carbon neutrality no later than 2060.

Inertial and target development scenarios are embedded in LT LEDS, which was adopted on 29 October 2021. The inertial (business as usual) scenario did not lead to carbon neutralitygoal on the planning horizon, so the target scenario was taken as a basis, which guaranteed the achievement of carbon neutrality by 2060. This identifies ensuring Russia’s competitiveness and sustainable economic growth in the context of global energy transition as a key task. The implementation of the target scenario will require investments in reducing GHG emissions by 1% of GDP in 2022–2030 and up to 1.5–2% of GDP in 2031–2050 [3]. The main investments in decarbonization are foreseen in the energy sector, steel and aluminum sector, cement production, and chemical and fertilizer industry, as they are responsible for almost 75% of the overall GHG emissions. These costs are based on current levels of spending on low-carbon technology development, equipment procurement and changes in supply and distribution chains. The decarbonization process includes measures to support the introduction, replication and scaling of low- and carbon neutral technologies, stimulating the use of secondary energy resources, changes in tax, customs and budgetary policies, the development of green finance, conservation and increases in the absorption capacity of forests and other ecosystems, and support for the capturing and utilization of greenhouse gases. Under the target scenario, economic growth will be possible with a reduction in GHG emissions: by 2050, their net emissions will decrease by 60% compared to the level of 2019 and by 80% compared to the level of 1990. Following this scenario will allow Russia to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Drafts of the Operational plan of the Long-term low-emission Development Strategy.

The first draft of the action plan (operational plan) for the implementation of the LT LEDS (LT LEDS Operational plan) was prepared in February 2022 by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and was actively discussed at various professional venues. The second draft of LT LEDS was also submitted for discussion at professional venues, for example, at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Climate Forum in February 2024. The structure of the document consists of six key blocks: regulatory measures, industrial modernization, increased absorption and climate projects, energy, technological innovations, and international cooperation. The main tools aim to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy and increase the absorption capacity of Russian ecosystems. The plan includes about 170 activities in key carbon-intensive sectors of the economy. The Minister of Economic Development, M. Reshetnikov, noted in his speech that the focus of the Ministry is the carbon footprint of products. It is important not only to implement climate projects: market participants must learn how to assess the carbon footprint of their products. First of all, these are issues of carbon pricing.

The role of Russian forests.

Forests play an exceptional role in the Russian LULUCF sector, as they actually absorb 90% of GHGs in the whole LULUCF, as per Russian national inventory document (NID) 2024. Achieving the maximum possible absorption capacity of forests, noted in the Russian NDC, can be ensured through the intensification of measures able to reduce emissions and increase absorption in managed ecosystems, including by reducing the GHG emissions resulting from logging and forest fires. Another potential measure aimed at increasing the area of forests and increasing their productivity (accumulation of biomass) is active forest management and effective reforestation. In the case of methodological improvements, both the basic level of net absorption and target indicators should be recalculated, while the planned effect of mitigation measures reflected in strategic documents should be recalculated accordingly. This approach is reflected in the methodological recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and is called time series consistency on GHG emissions and sinks [40].

The methodological consistency of time series is a central element of decarbonization strategies and makes it possible to correctly track the effectiveness of emission reduction measures at the national level. All estimates of emissions in the time series should be performed in a consistent manner, that is, the time series should be calculated using the same method and data sources for all years. The use of different methods and data in a time series can lead to erroneous estimates and conclusions, since in this case the estimated emission trend reflects not only the actual changes in emissions or absorption, but also the nature of methodological improvements [40].

The achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement and the global reduction in anthropogenic net GHG emissions should be ensured through the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures and assessed based on the principle of “as atmosphere sees”. In the absence of methodological corrections between the baseline and target indicators of national low-carbon strategies, the reductions announced by the countries become dubious, because the atmosphere “does not see them”. In reality, the fluxes have not changed due to the fact that we estimated them more accurately. That is why, when implementing the Paris Agreement, their stated national commitments to reduce emissions should be seen as a primary national commitment.

Russian NID 2024 [5] changes in net absorption in LULUCF compared to NID 2023 (in 2023, NID 2023 was called «Russian Federation. 2023 National Inventory Report (NIR)» [41]). Russian NID 2024 was approved and published in November 2024. Its LULUCF net absorption data significantly differs compared to NID 2023 and earlier NID data.

As is mentioned in section P.6 of Russia NID 2024, the inventory was developed, in particular, using the results obtained during the implementation of the National Innovation Project ‘Unified National System for Monitoring of Climate Active Substances’ (VIP GZ). In this inventory, recalculations and improvements in GHG emissions and removals were made, including those related to the methodologies of calculation estimates. The reasons for the changes in a number of indicators include the introduction of new national emission factors derived from the VIP GZ project [5] (

Table 1. Emissions of GHG and net absorption by managed ecosystems in LULUCF and managed forests. Data from Russian NID, 2024.

	GHG Emissions Without LULUCF, Mln t CO2-eq.		GHG Net Absorption by LULUCF, Mln t CO2-eq.		GHG Net Absorption by Managed Forests
Year	NID 24	NID 23	NID 24	NID 23	NID 24	NID 23
2018	2087.3	2145.2	−1083.2	−577.3	−943.7	−624.3
2019	2077.3	2136.5	−937.8	−550.5	−880.4	−618.2
2020	2001.3	2061.1	−1194.1	−557.6	−1082.5	−616.2
2021	2098.1	2156.6	−961.5	−506.6	−904.5	−614.4
2022	2042.0	nd	−1228.8	nd	−1058.4	nd
Average for the period	2061.2	2124.9	−1081.08	−548.0	−973.9	−618.3

nd—No data.

). It is worth mentioning that those corrections were mainly predicted by an international team of researchers and experts in 2021 [42].

According to the target scenario of LT LEDS 2021, the net absorption in the LULUCF sector should increase to the level of 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq. per year by 2050. To achieve zero emissions by 2060, the volume of absorption in LULUCF must correspond to the residual volume of emissions, i.e., 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq. per year. Based on NID 2023 data, this means an increase in net absorption in LULUCF from about 548 Mln t CO₂-eq. per year (in the period 2018–2021) to 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq. in 2050, or an increase of 652 Mln t CO₂-eq. per year. In this assessment, we have not yet considered the absorption effect due to the possible implementation of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS) and other carbon direct removal (CDR) projects in the Russian Federation due to absence of official data on CCUS and other CDR projects in Russia.

According to the National GHG Inventory Document 2024 [5], the net absorption in LULUCF is equal to 1081 Mln t CO₂-eq. (average in 2018–2022). To achieve the carbon neutrality target in Russia LT LEDS, equal to 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq., the increase in net absorption in LULUCF should be much less ambitious than that based on GHG inventory 2023 data, and should be equal to 119 Mln t CO₂-eq., instead of 652 Mln t CO₂-eq., or 5.5 times less.

In the LT LEDS 2021 Russia carbon neutrality scenario, based on GHG Inventory 2023 data, emissions should be reduced from 2156.6 Mln t CO₂-eq. (emissions of 2021) to 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq., meaning that technological decarbonization will be equal to 956.6 Mln t CO₂-eq. The absorption should increase from 506.6 Mln t CO₂-eq. (absorption of 2021) to 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq. (Figure 1). The ratio between technological decarbonization and the increase in net absorption in LULUCF is equal to 1.38 (956.6/693.4 Mln t CO₂-eq.). This is usually a high ratio for industrialized countries with a powerful energy sector, favoring GHG net absorption in LULUCF through managed ecosystems.

The new LT LEDS Russia carbon neutrality scenario, based on updated NID 2024, data has not yet been elaborated. Expert discussions about the amendment of LT LEDS indicators to achieve carbon neutrality are starting now.

If the ambition to increase net absorption in LULUCF up to 1200 Mln t CO₂-eq. will not change, as per the LT LEDS 2021 scenario, and the net absorption in LULUCF is equal to 1081 Mln t CO₂-eq. (average in 2018–2022), the technological decarbonization will be equal to 956.6 Mln t and the increase in net absorption in LULUCF will be 119 Mln t. This will keep the ratio between technological decarbonization and the increase in net absorption in LULUCF equal to 8 (956.6/119 Mln t CO₂-eq.). This ratio is more or less typical for industrialized countries with a powerful energy sector and vast LULUCF sector (i.e., USA and Canada).

3. Materials and Methods

Before 2024, Russian national GHG inventories were based on general IPCC reporting principles and approaches for GHG inventories. In 2022, a significant innovative project of national importance, entitled “Unified National Monitoring System of Climatically Active Substances” (VIP GZ), was launched in order to amend the indicators and methodologies of GHG emissions and absorption. The VIP GZ project was supervised by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. The results of the project should allow us to obtain objective data on regional climate change and GHG fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, including the absorption capacity of Russian ecosystems. Within the framework of VIP GZ, the scientific consortium “RITM Carbon” provided a detailed assessment of carbon stocks in forests and other terrestrial ecosystems and prepared a forecast of the dynamics of the main carbon pools and GHG fluxes under different scenarios of land use and climate change. A monitoring network was launched to assess carbon stocks and their absorption in forests and other terrestrial ecosystems in Russia.

Within the framework of the VIP GZ a combined approach to the assessment of carbon removal in forests was developed. In this case, the zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation was performed, providing an optimal combination of remote sensing data from space based on data from the information analytical system ‘Carbon-E’ (http://carbon.geosmis.ru/, accessed on 10 May 2025) [43,44] and State Forest Inventory (SFI) data based on 69.1 thousand sample plots obtained during 2007–2020, according to the maximum accuracy of the obtained estimates of carbon budget parameters in the country’s forests. Zone 1, which uses predominantly remote sensing data, includes large subjects characterized by a low density of SFI sample areas and significant areas of hard-to-reach territories. Zone 2, which predominantly uses ground survey data (SFI, statistics of the Federal Forestry Agency), includes most of the regions in the European part of the Russian Federation, the south of Siberia and the Russian Far East.

Data on the distribution of areas and reserves of plantations by species, site index (bonitet) and age were obtained from the SFI data. The current growth was calculated based on the normative growth and productivity of forests in Northern Eurasia using modal growth patterns of modal stands [45]. The models provide the opportunity to take into account regional characteristics, species composition, and the age and bonitet of stands. Similarly, using that set of models [46], the stocks of different fractions of dead wood (dry wood, dry branches, dead wood, stumps) are estimated in 1-year increments. The current forest growth is estimated as the difference between the wood stocks at the current age and one year ago.

Refined Biomass Expansion Factors (conversion factors) were used for forest carbon budget calculations [47], considering the age, site index (bonitet) and completeness of stands of a particular dominant species as input factors. Considering that 50 per cent of dry biomass is carbon [48], the annual changes in the carbon stocks of the phytomass of plantations per 1 ha can be estimated.

The area of forest loss due to fire is also determined using a combined two-zone approach: in zone 1, remote sensing data are used [49], and in zone 2, the statistics of the Federal Forestry Agency are used. Forest carbon losses during harvesting are determined based on actual data on harvested wood stocks according to Federal Forestry Agency data.

The areas of managed forests have been clarified: based on remote sensing data, the areas of sparse woodlands that are part of managed forest lands but were not previously accounted for in the GHG inventory due to a lack of activity data have been included. Their area over the period 2013–2022 decreased from 23.7 to 19.5 million hectares, which is explained by the transition of some of these sparse forests to covered forest land. In addition, from 2019, managed forest land additionally includes 44.5 million ha of so-called “reserve forests”, where additional fire control and suppression activities are carried out. And the managed forests include former collective farm forests located on agricultural lands. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the area of collective farm forests totals 4.0 million hectares.

The first results of the VIP GZ project, considering the results of new SFI data, indicate that a significant reassessment of the net absorption of CO₂ by managed forests has been made.

4. Results: Possible Scenarios to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in the Russian Federation in the New LT LEDS

After the approval of the new NID 2024, it is possible to expect that the LT LEDS target scenario, which aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, will be amended and a new LT LEDS will be tentatively endorsed in the coming months (new LT LEDS—amended LT LEDS 2021, which will incorporate NID 2024 data). The adoption of a new amended version of LT LEDS will be potentially tentatively possible in the coming months or couple of years. The previous LT LEDS 2021 scenario was based on the assumption that absorption in LULUCF will be increased by 693.4 Mln t CO₂, while technological decarbonization will be equal to 956.6 Mln t CO₂-eq. (Figure 1). It is worth mentioning that, according to the authors’ assessment [19], the LT-LEDS 2021 ambition to increase absorption in LULUCF is mainly based on the idea that existing government assessments and registers (e.g., State forest register by Federal forest agency, etc.) underestimate absorption by forests and other ecosystems, and that the new science-based assessment of GHG absorption will lead to significantly higher figures for absorption. This assessment was fully supported as a result of the VIP GZ project implementation, where the absorption in LULUCF increased almost two times from 548 Mln t CO₂e to 1081 Mln t CO₂e in NID 2024. The VIP GZ re-assessment of the ecosystem absorption capacity contributed to an almost 86% increase in the LT-LEDS planned absorption by 2050 in LULUCF.

The two “extreme” potential options will define the framework for the re-calculation of the target scenario in the new LT LEDS for achieving carbon neutrality:

(1)

The ambition of LT LEDS 2021 to increase net absorption in LULUCF will remain unchanged (−693.4 Mln t CO₂-eq. in 2060 compared to 2023) while technological decarbonization will decrease.

(2)

The ambition of LT LEDS 2021 to decrease emissions through technological decarbonization will remain unchanged (−956.6 Mln t CO2-eq. in 2060 compared to 2023), while net absorption in LULUCF will decrease.

Based on this, three possible scenarios of reaching carbon neutrality in the target scenario in the new LT LEDS are presented below, with the assumption that the GHG emissions in 2023 are 2061.2 Mln t CO₂-eq. (average in 2018–2022) and that the GHG net absorption by LULUCF in 2023 is 1081.08 Mln t CO₂-eq. (average in 2018–2022).

Scenario 1. In this scenario, the increase in net absorption in LULUCF will remain as planned in LT LEDS 2021, at 693.4 Mln t CO₂-eq., while technological decarbonization will decrease from 956.6 to 286.7 Mln t CO₂-eq (2061.2-1081.1-693.4), or by almost 2.8 times compared to the LT LEDS 2021 decarbonization target (Figure 2).

Scenario 2. In this scenario, the level of technological decarbonization will not change (956.6 Mln t CO₂-eq.), while the net absorption in LULUCF will decrease from 693.4 to 23.5 Mln t CO₂-eq (2061.2-1081.1-956.6), or by almost 30 times compared to the LT LEDS 2021 decarbonization target (Figure 3).

Scenario 3. This is a intermediate scenario between Scenario 1 and 2. This scenario is seen as the compromise between the “extreme” of scenarios 1 and 2. This scenario is presented below in a very simplified manner as an average figure between scenarios 1 and 2. The basis of comparison is technological decarbonization and the net absorption ambitions (change in net carbon balance) in 2060 compared with 2023 (Figure 4).

Scenario 1 will greatly simplify the achievement of carbon neutrality by the largest GHG emitters, as well as provide time and opportunities for the gradual restructuring of energy supply systems and industry in the country. At the same time, analyzing possible ways to increase net uptake in the LULUCF sector, given the projected increase in boreal forest burning as a result of climate change, shows that the financial costs of forestry should significantly increase from current levels [50]. The total funding for the federal project “Forest Preservation” within the framework of the new national project “Environmental Well-Being” will amount to RUB 71 billion by 2030. This is 70% more than was allocated for the previous five years [51]. According to information from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology, the cost of fighting forest fires in Russia is expected to increase by RUB 5.3 billion from RUB 14.9 billion in 2024 to 20.2 billion in 2025 [52]. Thus, the goals of the LULUCF sector to increase absorption volumes remain unrealistically high and leave a high burden on the state departments responsible for implementing the program aimed at increasing GHG absorption by forests and agricultural lands (the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, the Federal Forestry Agency, and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation) (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

Scenario 2 will decrease the burden on the ministries responsible for implementing net absorption programs in LULUCF, but will maintain relatively high decarbonization levels for businesses, municipalities and non-LULUCF Ministries, such as the Ministry of Energy and others. In this scenario, it is possible to anticipate significant resistance from the mentioned entities.

Scenario 3 is a more realistic scenario combining scenarios 1 and 2. In this scenario, it is possible to determine a more realistic level for increasing absorption in LULUCF, considering the real potential of adaptation measures and climate projects, and the corresponding adjustment of emission reduction targets by industry and other emitters. In this option, the impact on the LULUCF sector will be achievable in practice, but will require the implementation of a complex set of management, adaptation and mitigation approaches. At the same time, the burden on the relevant GHG emitters in the energy sector and industry will be higher than in option 2 but lower than in option 1. This option is the most preferable from the point of view of the authors. It requires a science-based approach to assessing the practical potential of mitigation, adaptation and management measures in the LULUCF sector of the Russian Federation in the coming decades. This approach will require evaluating both technological and policy options to define the cost-effective potential of mitigation and adaptation.

The authors suggest that the main discussion on the decarbonization of the Russian economy in the coming years will unfold around these strategies of low-carbon development. In our opinion, if the third option is adopted, it will be possible to define realistic goals for achieving carbon neutrality of the economy, with sub-goals for all sectors of the economy, including agriculture and forestry, and systematically achieve them within the time frame specified in the LT LEDS. Global business decarbonization standards (SBTI Net Zero, ISO 14068, etc.) are on the side of the third option, which limits the use of offsets for decarbonization in energy and other industries. The discussion on decarbonization should be continued, both at the level of expert community and interested ministries and departments, unions, and business organizations.

It is known that reducing GHG emissions through technology is quite an expensive measure. In general, approaches related to the implementation of nature-based climate projects are more economically attractive. The role of managed forests in net carbon sequestration in LULUCF is around 90%, as per NID 2024. Non-managed forests also absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere. Romanovskaya and Korotkov [20,53] estimate that 80% of net absorption by managed and non-managed ecosystems is performed by forests.

In the research of A.A. Romanovskaya [21], it is noted that the forest area of Russia is increasing (by 15.2% in 2016 compared to 1990), mainly due to the actual transition of unused agricultural lands to non-managed forests. The reduction in logging on managed forest lands from 1990 to 2010, against the background of an increase in the area of actively GHG-absorbing young forests at the site of extensive Soviet-era logging, led to an overall increase in the absorption of GHGs by forests. However after 2010, the annual volume of net absorption of GHGs in forests stopped increasing and began to decline due to an increase in logging and the area affected by forest fires [54].

4.1. Reaching Carbon Neutrality and Forest Fires Problem

A number of studies have revealed a high potential for reducing emissions in the prevention of forest fires (220–420 million tons of CO₂-eq. per year). At the same time, despite a significant increase in funding in the field of forest fire control in the last 10–15 years, the area of forests passed by fires has only increased, from about 4 million hectares in 2000 to about 13 million hectares in 2023, according to the Forest Fires Remote Monitoring Information System (ISDM-Rosleskhoz) of the Federal Forestry Agency (Figure 5). Without measures to reduce the area of forest fires and limit logging, a subsequent reduction in net GHG absorption on managed forest lands is expected [37,38,55], and there will be a further increase in the flammability of forests [35,36].

A significant problem in appropriate accounting for the dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions during forest fires is the intention of forest authorities to limit or cut off the supply of information on forest fires, which was revealed by auditors of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation (Figure 6). The reporting of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Federal Forestry Agency plays up the alleged decrease in the economic indicator of “damage” in relation to forest fires in the period since 2000, which simultaneously masks a parallel increase in the area of forest fires in the country, especially in Central Siberia, Yakutia and the Russian Far East [37,38,55,56]. The economic “damage” caused by fires is determined by the cost of losses in the commercial value of timber, which is minimal in the regions furthest from the transport and logistics infrastructure and maximal in the European territory of Russia, which has the most developed road infrastructure, a high proportion of forests leased for harvesting, and a proven forest fire fighting system.

4.2. Estimates of the Carbon Balance in Russian Forests

Many authors are assessing the carbon balance of forests and their main components [20,55,59,60]. For example, Shchepashchenko and co-authors [42] estimated that the net absorption of Russian forests in 1988–2014 was, on average, 354 million tons of C per year (in living biomass), which corresponds to 1298 million tons of CO₂. This is significantly higher than the value indicated in the National GHG Inventory in 2023 and before. This difference arises due to the use of data from the first cycle of the State Forest Inventory (SFI), which ended in 2020, in combination with remote sensing data (satellite surveys) instead of data from the State Forest Register (SFR). The SFI data surpasses the SFR data on wood reserves in forests by 39% [42]. The difference in net absorption is also due to the fact that only managed forest ecosystems, which occupy about 82% of the country’s forest land area, are included in the National GHG Inventory. Additionally should be noted, the absorption capacity of forests on former agricultural lands is estimated to be about 7 times higher than that on forest lands, which is explained by the more favorable conditions for forest growth on more fertile former agricultural soils [61,62].

Various publications and estimates [20,60,63] show that the approach based on the traditional forest inventory has a significant drawback, namely difficulties in accounting for the succession and adaptation of ecosystems to new conditions. Considering that the average age of forest census data in Russia is 25–30 years or more (with a exception of few regions in European part of Russia), many old-growth forests have already been transformed into young or middle-aged ones due to natural forest growth cycles. Similar results at the local level have been demonstrated by many researchers. Thus, for the Central Forest Nature Reserve, as a result of natural processes and adaptation to climate change, according to remote sensing data over 30 years, 41% of forests without human influence or major catastrophic events have changed their leading species and only 21% of old-growth forests have retained their characteristics [64].

It is important to note the divergence of trends; stationary models [54] often give a predicted decrease in the absorption capacity of forests, whereas studies performed at global and regional scales based on remote sensing data show an increase in the growth rate of biological products and the adaptation of forest ecosystems to an increase in CO₂ content in the atmosphere in the coming decades. Models based on remote data and measurements of FLUXNET systems, on the contrary, often tend to overestimate the absorption capacity of landscape cover [60,65]. Thus, the World Resources Institute model of global carbon fluxes in forest vegetation [66] gives an average absorption of 4320 Mt of CO₂ per year for the territory of Canada over 20 years (and even more for the territory of the Russian Federation). For Russia, models based on the use of remote data and the measurement of FLUXNET systems form a range of 1800–2500 Mt CO₂ per year. It should be noted that the measurement of flows by the eddy covariance method is characterized by significant uncertainties. In addition, such estimates do not consider the lateral carbon fluxes associated with logging, the leaching of soil carbon and loss caused by erosion. The publication, based on a combination of data from the first cycle of the GIL in 2007–2020 and remote sensing data [42], gives an “intermediate” estimate of ~1270 Mt CO₂ per year. Similar estimates were obtained in the article by Romanovskaya and Korotkov [20] in the case of accounting for all forests; however, these estimates require the clarification of the contribution of litter and soil pools to the carbon balance of forests.

However, only the methodology of the National GHG Inventory has been repeatedly verified by the experts of UNFCCC when reviewing the national reports of the Russian Federation in the UNFCCC and is therefore considered official. A recent study by a representative international team of authors [14] showed that despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. In this regard, it should be noted that the study of the World Resources Institute [67] estimates the Net Carbon Balance for Russian Forests to be 1400+ Mt C per year (

Table 2. Estimates of the net carbon balance for Russian forests *.

Research	Years of Modeling	Mt C per Year
[67] Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l’Environnement	2000–2004	600–700
[68] US Forest Service	2000–2009	474
[68] US Forest Service	2010–2019	330
[69] Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam	2012	690 ± 246
[70]	1990–2010	505–611
[71] Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences	1990–2010	500–650
[72] Center of Forest Ecology and Productivity of the Russian Academy of Sciences	2013	200
[73] Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)	2014	255
[74] International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Austria	2007–2009	546 ± 120
[75]	1988–2014	530–595
[67] World Resources Institute, USA	2000–2019	1400+
[42]	1988–2014	354
[20]	2017–2021	256–320
[5] (only managed forest land)	2000–2009 2010–2022	432 312

* Composed by [59], with updates and additions by the authors.

), which appears to be significantly overestimated compared with both official data from the Russian SFI and recently published data (4–4.4 times higher than in [20,42].

4.3. Legal Regulation of Climate Projects in the Forest Lands

In the spring of 2022, the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation initiated amendments to the Forest Code of the Russian Federation and Article 9 of Federal Law No. 296 “On Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions” to support the implementation of climate projects in the field of forest relations (forest climate projects). After two years of discussion, significant adjustments were made to the final version of the draft law. Draft law No. 566540-8 “On Amendments to the Forest Code of the Russian Federation (in order to create legal grounds for the implementation of climate projects in forests on the Territory of the Russian Federation)” was submitted for consideration to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in March 2024 and finally adopted on 26 December 2024.

The main criticisms during the discussion of the draft law were related to the fact that the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia initially suggested classifying only climate projects in forests that enable the implementation of works on protection, reforestation and afforestation, ensuring a reduction (avoidance) in greenhouse gas emissions or an increase in GHG removal (

Table 3. Measures to increase absorption and stimulate climate projects in the LULUCF sector ([7], pp. 81–86).

3.2.1 Main measures in the field of assessment of the absorption capacity of forests and other ecosystems

Clarification of data on quantitative and qualitative characteristics of forests and other managed ecosystems obtained as part of the implementation of the significant innovative project “Unified National Monitoring System of Climatically Active Substances” (VIP GZ) Formation of a legal basis for expanding the list of source data in the preparation of the National Inventory, considering the results obtained within the framework of VIP GZ Exploring the potential of agroforestry and regenerative ariculture for carbon storage. Investigation of the mechanisms of carbon stabilization and deposition in the soils of agroecosystems of Russia Development of practical recommendations to reduce GHG emissions and increase removal by natural ecosystems (irrigation of managed wetlands, reforestation, fire prevention, cultivation of agricultural products, etc., in different soil and climatic conditions of the Russian Federation)

Measures to increase the absorption capacity of ecosystems

Conducting agroforestry and phytomelioration activities on lands subject to erosion and desertification Creating conditions for increasing GHG absorption and carbon storage by agricultural land (including cultivated land, hay harvesting areas and pastures) Protection of forests from pests (elimination of insect pest outbreaks) Protection of forests from fires Increasing the area of reforestation and afforestation Intensification of forest use and reproduction (change in logging technology and transition to new models of timber harvesting, including an increase in the area of logging for forest care, the introduction of an intensive model of forest use and reproduction, and the introduction of ecological methods of disposal of felling residues) Transition to the use of fertilizers with a prolonged validity period Amendments to the Land Code of the Russian Federation to supplement the obligations of tenants of land plots to carry out land revegetation in some cases Creation of a network of forest breeding and seed centers for the cultivation of planting material and the stimulation of activities for the formation of economically valuable plantations

3.2.2. Stimulating the implementation of climate projects

A regulatory framework has been developed for the implementation of climate projects in forests Amendments to legislation regarding the implementation of forest cultivation activities on agricultural lands that are not used for their intended purpose, including for the purposes of implementing climate projects Elaboration of a mechanism to ensure permanent GHG sequestration, ensuring the release of carbon units

). This contradicts international practice, according to which up to 60% of carbon units can be provided by projects for the conservation and restoration of ecosystems, and no more than 40% can be provided by projects to improve ecosystem management [76]. On the other hand, the accumulated criticism of projects aimed at preserving forests from deforestation and the objective difficulties of verifying the additionality of such projects and the baseline may serve as an argument in favor of the prematurity of including such projects in the forest climate projects of the Russian Federation.

Significant additions were made to the draft law “On Amendments to the Forest Code of the Russian Federation” before final approval, which make it possible to implement forest climate projects both on leased forest plots and on non-leased plots. The version of the draft law adopted in the first reading contains, according to the authors, a number of controversial points: the permissive nature of the implementation of projects by the forest fund of the Federal Forestry Agency (in general, it does not correspond to the world practice of implementing forest climate projects), as well as the possibility of non-agreement regarding the climate project if its purpose does not correspond to the “intended purpose of forests” (art. 66, paragraph 9). At the same time, the concept of “forest purpose” was defined in the 2006 Forest Code without considering the climate agenda. According to our assessment, there are projects at risk that are aimed at reducing emissions as a result of a reduction in logging; this includes, for example, projects for the voluntary conservation of forests of high conservation value (as they do not fully meet the intended purpose of operational forests) or projects for the rewetting of drained peatlands in the forest fund—in the absence of obvious signs of a risk of fire danger on them.

4.4. Assessment of Measures to Increase Absorption and Stimulate the Implementation of Climate Projects in the LULUCF Sector in the Draft Operational Plan of LT LEDS

The draft LT LEDS Operational plan of June 2024 provides for an increase in absorption:

-

Indicators of increased absorption of LULUCF on forest lands by year up to 2030 (Section 3.1.1).

-

Indicators of the total annual area of forest fires on forest fund lands, which are expected to be reduced by 2030 to 4.2 million hectares by 2030, compared to 10 million hectares in 2019 (Section 3.1.1).

-

The stepwise quantitative result of the implementation of climate projects by 2030 in the amount of 20 million tons of CO₂-eq., compared with 1 million tons in 2024 (Section 3.1.2).

-

Focus on exploring the potential of agroforestry and regenerative agriculture for carbon storage and the implementation of measures and climate projects in this field (Sections 3.2.1.1 and 3.2.1.2).

-

Stimulating the implementation of climate projects (Section 3.2.2), which is caused by low current business interest in the implementation of climate projects.

In general, the measures proposed by the LT LEDS Operational plan draft look quite logical, scientifically sound and consistent with world experience; for example, the role of agroforestry and protective afforestation measures has been increased. However, in our opinion, the last version of the LT LEDS Operational plan still needs some improvement. In particular, measures to assess the absorption capacity of forests and other ecosystems should be significantly adjusted and linked to the results of the VIP GZ project. It is hoped that, based on the results of VIP GZ and an adjusted National GHG Inventory, accounting for forest absorption will allow all targets to be achieved “automatically”. However, it should be recalled that methodological refinements of the assessment of net absorption in the LULUCF sector cannot be considered mitigation measures and should lead to both a reassessment of the baseline (2019 in LT LEDS) and the target indicator. Unfortunately, as follows from the second version of the LT LEDS Operational plan of VIP GZ, such a recalculation was not performed, and the refinement effect of VIP GZ will be counted in the National GHG inventory and other documents as an “absorption capacity increase”.

The degree of elaboration of climate measures in LULUCF is different. If the agroforestry section shows a chain of actions aimed at achieving the desired result, including the development of an appropriate roadmap for agroforestry, then in terms of measures under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Federal Forestry Agency, such a sequence is not visible. Some of the proposed indicators are debatable. For example, the planned area for reducing forest fires provides for a reversal in the trend of increasing fires (Figure 5), but it is unclear by what measures this change will be implemented.

As for climate projects aimed at protecting forests from fires, in the international methodology Verra VM0029 and by the Clean Energy Regulator of the Australian Government, only one type of forest fire project is assigned; this is controlled burning (controlled fires burn during a less fire hazardous period in order to prevent catastrophic fires during the peak of the fire hazardous period). The methodology for the implementation of forest climate projects for the protection of forests from pests in the LT LEDS Operational plan, as well as for the protection of forests from fires, in our opinion, requires more discussion and elaboration, particularly due to the presence of polar opinions on their effectiveness among specialists and the lack of convincing world practice.

Reforestation and afforestation measures for the implementation of climate projects also raise questions. Reforestation projects in burned and cut down areas are often characterized by a negative carbon balance compared to at the baseline of the project [77,78]. Natural afforestation in boreal forests, starting with a predominance of leaved species (birch, aspen, etc.), often leads to greater carbon absorption than the planting of coniferous forests, which is required by the modern regulatory framework of the Russian forestry sector. The example of a negative carbon balance during the reforestation project was shown for the Irkutsk Region [77].

At the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Glasgow in 2021, it was decided that the credit period for forest projects implemented under Article 6.4 of the Framework Convention should be up to 15 years, with the possibility of a maximum of two more extensions, making the period up to 45 years in total. Considering this factor, the effect of carbon sequestration measures through traditional forestry reforestation with coniferous monocultures in the Irkutsk Region and the Krasnoyarsk Territory is negative until about the age of 50. According to [78], only when the stand is over 50 years old does carbon accumulation in Pinus sylvestris crops become higher than during spontaneous overgrowth. It can be assumed that most reforestation projects in the forest zone (the zone of natural overgrowth), focused on the cultivation of coniferous monocultures, will lose out to natural restoration, which occurs in most cases (except for poor sandy or rocky soils) by overgrowing with deciduous crops depositing 1.4–2 times more carbon than coniferous ones, or will not have significant differences from it [79].

Thus, reforestation by methods focused on the growing of only coniferous trees is not a reliable climate project without reorientation to deciduous and mixed ones, with a maximum rate of carbon accumulation compared to coniferous monocultures. Due to the pronounced course of improving the quality of carbon units, this creates risks regarding the fair assessment of the value and quality of carbon units from Russia. The latter is especially important given the increasing criticism of carbon offsets for climate change mitigation [80,81]. It should be noted that the adoption of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 665 of 23 May 2024, which made public the materials of all registered climate projects from 1 June 2024, allows to ensure transparency in the implementation of climate projects in Russia.

The approach of implementing climate projects only in leased forests has significant limitations: in total, only about 15.2–15.4% of the forests of the State Forest Fund were leased for timber industry purposes in the Russian Federation in 2022–2023. Considering the sanctions and restrictions on the export of timber products, there are no significant prospects for the growth of the forest lease area. In order to maximize the potential of carbon sequestration by Russian forests, it is important to reorient the management of the country’s non-leased forests (almost 85% of the Russian forest area) to increase their resistance to fires, reduce their flammability and increase the carbon removal capacity of forests.

4.5. The Lack of Climate Indicators for the Implementation of Measures in the Draft LT LEDS Operational Plan

In the column “Expected result” in Sections 3.2.1.1 and 3.2.1.2 of the LT LEDS Operational plan, the results of climate measures are given in hectares; this includes the area in which the pest outbreak was eliminated and forest areas that are protected from fires, etc. At the same time, Section 3.2.2 gives the cumulative result of voluntary forest climate projects in the Russian Federation in million tons of CO₂-eq. per year. In our opinion, the purpose of the measures in Sections 3.2.1.1 and 3.2.1.2 should be to obtain a climatic effect to increase absorption or reduce emissions; therefore, the expected results in this section should further be linked to tons of CO₂-eq.

Previously, the authors proposed a list of priority forest climate projects in Russia based on national and international experience, appropriate methods, and the features of forest management in the country [53,82]. Such projects are proposed for implementation, primarily on leased forest plots or on agricultural land.

We have made a forecast calculation of the yield of carbon units at a cost of production of less than USD 30 per unit (1 ton of CO₂) (

Table 4. The ratio of the key directions of increasing absorption in Russian forests in strategic documents and scientific research (LT LEDS, LT LEDS Operational plan, IGCE, IG RAS) for million tons of CO₂-eq.

Assessment of the Target Potential for Increasing GHG Absorption in LULUCF	Changing the Methodology for Assessing Absorption	Climate Projects	Measures (Government Fundings)
LT LEDS	665
IGCE	545–940, in forests 235–480
LT LEDS Operational plan	no data available	100 (by 2030)	400
IG RAS	85	200 (by 2050)	100–150

). The cost was estimated during the execution of contractual works for a number of Russian thermal power companies in 2021 with the participation of experts from the GFA Climate Competence Center.

According to recent studies, forest climate projects can provide up to 30% of the absorption of GHGs necessary to contain global temperature increases within 1.5 °C [83,84,85]. At the same time, the cost of such solutions is in the range of USD 10–40 per 1 ton of CO₂-eq. It should be noted that there is a significant difference in approaches to decarbonization according to measures in the LT LEDS Operational plan 2024 and in global practice. An analysis of research in the field of natural and climate solutions has shown that, globally, projects for the conservation of ecosystems (forests) can bring the greatest effect, followed by projects for the restoration of ecosystems, and lastly, those for better forest management. The absorption rate between them, respectively, is 2.1:1.2:1. At the same time, almost all the measures proposed in the draft LT LEDS Operational plan 2024, with the exception of afforestation, relate to better forest management and do not include projects for the conservation and restoration of ecosystems, with the exception of wetland projects. But since deforestation in Russia is only a fraction of a percent of the area of forest land, the emphasis on sustainable forest management may be quite justified.

5. Discussion: How to Increase Carbon Sequestration by Russian Forests

Although there is a widespread perception among decision makers in Russia that, due to the huge area and absorbing capacity of forests, the country should not significantly “invest” in the decarbonization of industry and housing and communal services, the real picture of the dynamics of the carbon balance in the forests and natural ecosystems of Russia are not so promising and positive.

Firstly, some forecasts of the carbon balance of forests indicate a reduction in its value by 2050 by 2.5–5 times compared to the current situation, depending on the projected volume of logging [73]. Even if the current level of logging is maintained, a decrease in net forest absorption can be expected due to a decrease in the areas of actively absorbing young trees. This decrease is due to the different volume of logging in the USSR (around 400 mln m³/year) and in the Russian Federation (around 200 mln m³/year). The decrease in logging volume also means a decrease in areas for reforestation, and young forests absorb significantly higher volumes of CO₂ than old forests.

Secondly, the area of burned forests is growing, which is recorded according to remote sensing data; with the predicted increase in summer temperatures and adverse weather events, a further increase in forest fires can be expected. Accordingly, an increase in the volume of forest fire emissions is predicted [53].

In our opinion, it is necessary to build a national decarbonization policy by considering the high probability of a gradual decrease in net forest absorption from more than 1000 million tons of CO₂-eq. in 2021 to about 300–400 million by 2050 [54]. This will require both increasing efforts in terms of technological decarbonization and changing the priorities of the national forest policy, directing it not only and not so much to the development of logging as it is now, but to radically increasing the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by forests. The latter is also important regarding the fact that the cost of reducing the emission of 1 ton of CO₂ through natural solutions is considered significantly lower than using technologies [83].

The Federal Project “Forest Preservation” formally had the special line “Carbon uptake by forests”, but with a minimal ambition to increase carbon uptake (600 mln t. in 2020, 610 mln in 2026, or 1.7% increase for 7 years), and there is not any information on the source or reason for this increase (Quantitative information on the Federal Project “Forest Preservation” of the new National Project “Environmental Well-Being” (2025–2030) is still not public). To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it is necessary to reorient and reform forestry outside of forests leased for industrial purposes (more than 80% of the country’s forest areas) to reduce the flammability and increase the resistance of forests to fires and increase the absorption of carbon dioxide by forests, instead of increasing the industrial stock and growth of coniferous wood. These tasks require a radical reform of the entire forestry system of the country and a change in the priority of forestry outside the territory of the forestry lease to increase the absorption and carbon deposition by forests and all other types of natural and anthropogenic ecosystems in Russia, increase the role of natural reforestation, increase the formation of more fire-resistant multi-species plantations, and edge previously created coniferous monocultures by deciduous plantings, etc. [22,60].

These tools could be used for the required changes (the list is not comprehensive):

-

Complementing the federal project “Forest Preservation” of the national project “Environmental Well-Being” and the state program “Forestry Development” as the main instruments for financing forestry by the Russian Federation, with quantitative estimates of GHG absorption within the framework of ongoing measures in the field of forestry funded by the federal budget, as well as limiting the requirements for the use of mainly coniferous seedlings in reforestation with a closed root system.

-

In accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 382 of 15 June 2022, setting targets for the federal subjects of the Russian Federation to ensure a reduction in the area of forest fires by at least 50% from the level of 2021 and, accordingly, a reduction in emissions and an increase in forest absorption, within the framework of the prepared LT LEDS Operational plan. This will allow forestry to make a quantitative contribution to achieving carbon neutrality in Russia.

-

Implementing regional carbon targets in the forest plans of the subjects of the Russian Federation, the forest management regulations of forest districts and forest development plans.

-

Providing for the achievement of these targets both through departmental measures for the mitigation and adaptation of forests, and through the implementation of forest climate projects by private investors.

-

Implementing measures to stimulate adaptation measures and climate projects through financial incentives and green financing for private investors. Minimizing administrative and departmental barriers in the implementation of climate projects in forests.

-

Removing restrictions on agroforestry for unused agricultural lands if this does not threaten “food security”, which will strengthen measures to protect forests from fires and pests. Approximately 70% of such forests are not planned to be returned to agricultural turnover. In many regions (Vologda region, Kostroma region, Nizhny Novgorod region), agriculture turns out to be economically more sustainable, precisely in cooperation with forest management.

-

Defining, at the level of the carbon unit registry, the best practices for the implementation of climate projects in the forest, including issues related to determining the baseline, project scenario and additionality.

-

Taking measures to harmonize Russian methodologies and the work of validation and verification authorities with international requirements in this area. This will be in demand, including within the framework of the upcoming processes of cross-border carbon regulation.

6. Conclusions: The Role of Forests in the Implementation of the Target Scenario of Low-Carbon Development in Russia

To better understand the possibilities of GHG absorption by ecosystems, it is important to determine both the full mitigation potential and the economically available mitigation potential, including the technical capabilities and economic feasibility of its use. The Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE) estimates that the potential for CO₂ mitigation by terrestrial ecosystems in Russia is in the range of 545–940 million tons of CO₂-eq. per year [20,21].

These figures are based on a study of the full mitigation potential, without considering the costs and technological limitations associated with such measures. The potential for reducing forest fires emissions in [21] is estimated to be 220–420 million tons. The total absorption potential in Russian forests, according to the work of A. Romanovskaya, is approximately 235–480 million tons of CO₂-eq., excluding the potential of projects to achieve the long-term storage of harvested wood products (HWPs). The economically affordable mitigation potential within the framework of climate projects (with the cost of carbon units being up to USD 30) is up to 200 million tons of CO₂-eq. per year by 2050 ([19]; Table 4).

When discussing the role of forests in the implementation of Russia’s low-carbon development, it is important to determine the ratio of the role of government spending and private investment, the role of structural measures to adapt forestry to modern climate change (measures such as changing the regulatory framework and forestry practices), and the place of forest climate projects (that is, projects implemented at the expense of investors who become owners of carbon units as a result of the implementation of forest climate projects) in the decarbonization strategy of Russia. To characterize and assess the contribution of the federal project “Forest Preservation” of the national project “Ecology” (until 12/31/2024), the new national project “Environmental Well-Being” (until 2030) and the Forestry Development state program (until 2030) as the main instruments of financing forestry by the Russian Federation to the implementation of LT LEDS, it is advisable to quantify the GHG absorption in relation to ongoing measures in the field of forestry financed from the federal budget.

A wide range of forecast values related to decarbonization parameters, different interpretations of the role of adaptation and mitigation measures, climate projects, and public and private investments necessitate the development of an expert dialog, openness in conducting transactions with carbon units in the national register of carbon units, and further work to find the optimal scenario for the decarbonization of Russia in the LT LEDS Operational plan.