Search Results (4,585)

Under China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ strategy, the power sector plays a central role in achieving carbon neutrality. This study develops a bi-level game-optimization model involving the government, power producers, and technology suppliers to explore the dynamic coordination between shadow carbon pricing and emission trajectories. The upper-level model, guided by the government, focuses on minimizing total costs, including emission reduction costs, technological investments, and operational costs, by dynamically adjusting emission targets and shadow carbon prices. The lower-level model employs evolutionary game theory to simulate the adaptive behaviors and strategic interactions among power producers, regulatory authorities, and technology suppliers. Three representative uncertainty scenarios, disruptive technological breakthroughs, major policy interventions, and international geopolitical shifts, are incorporated to evaluate system robustness. Simulation results indicate that an optimistic scenario is characterized by rapid technological advancement and strong policy incentives. Conversely, under a pessimistic scenario with sluggish technology development and weak regulatory frameworks, there are substantially higher transition costs. This research uniquely contributes by explicitly modeling dynamic feedback between policy and stakeholder behavior under multiple uncertainties, highlighting the critical roles of innovation-driven strategies and proactive policy interventions in shaping effective, resilient, and cost-efficient carbon pricing and low-carbon transition pathways in the power sector. Full article

Mining (1) operations in remote areas (2) face significant challenges related to energy supply, high fuel costs, and limited infrastructure. This study investigates the potential for achieving energy independence (3) and resilience (4) in such environments through the integration of renewable energy sources (5) and battery–electric mining equipment. Using the “Studena Vrila” underground bauxite mine as a case study, a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental analysis was conducted across three development models. These models explore incremental scenarios of solar and wind energy adoption combined with electrification of mobile machinery. The methodology includes calculating levelized cost of energy (LCOE), return on investment (ROI), and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions under each scenario. Results demonstrate that a full transition to RES and electric machinery can reduce diesel consumption by 100%, achieve annual savings of EUR 149,814, and cut GHG emissions by over 1.7 million kg CO₂-eq. While initial capital costs are high, all models yield a positive Net Present Value (NPV), confirming long-term economic viability. This research provides a replicable framework for decarbonizing mining operations in off-grid and infrastructure-limited regions. Full article

Amidst global climate change, carbon emissions across the edible vegetable oil supply chain are critical for sustainable development. This paper systematically reviews the existing literature, employing life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze key factors influencing carbon footprints at stages including cultivation, processing, and transportation. It reveals the differential impacts of fertilizer application, energy structures, and regional policies. Unlike previous reviews that focus on single crops or regions, this study uniquely integrates global data across major edible oils, identifying three critical gaps: methodological inconsistency (60% of studies deviate from the requirements and guidelines for LCA); data imbalance (80% concentrated on soybean/rapeseed); weak policy-technical linkage. Key findings: fertilizer emissions dominate cultivation (40–60% of total footprint), while renewable energy substitution in processing reduces emissions by 35%. Future efforts should prioritize multidisciplinary integration, enhanced data infrastructure, and policy scenario analysis to provide scientific insights for the low-carbon transformation of the global edible oil industry. Full article

The cement industry is a significant contributor to global carbon dioxide emissions, primarily due to the energy demands of its production process and its reliance on clinker, a material formed through the high-temperature calcination of limestone. Strategies to reduce emissions include the adoption of low-carbon fuels, the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and the integration of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) to reduce the clinker content. The effectiveness of these measures depends on a complex set of interactions involving technological feasibility, market dynamics, and regulatory frameworks. This study presents a system dynamics model designed to assess how various decarbonization approaches influence long-term emission trends within the cement industry. The model accounts for supply chains, production technologies, market adoption rates, and changes in cement production costs. This study then analyzes a number of scenarios where there is large-scale sustained investment in each of three carbon mitigation strategies. The results show that CCS by itself allows the cement industry to achieve carbon neutrality, but the high capital investment results in a large cost increase for cement. A combined approach using alternative fuels and SCMs was found to achieve a large carbon reduction without a sustained increase in cement prices, highlighting the trade-offs between cost, effectiveness, and system-wide interactions. Full article

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

Nowadays, the circular economy is driving the construction industry towards greater sustainability for both environmental and financial purposes. One prominent area of research with significant contributions to circular economy is the reuse of steel from decommissioned structures in new construction projects. This approach is deemed far more efficient than ordinary steel recycling, due to the fact that it contributes towards reducing both the cost of the new project and the associated carbon emissions. Along these lines, the feasibility of utilizing steel wind turbine towers (WTTs) as part of a new structure is investigated herein, considering that wind turbines are decommissioned after a nominal life of approximately 25 years due to fatigue limitations. General principles of structural steel reuse are first presented in a systematic manner, followed by two case studies. Realistic data about the geometry and cross-sections of previous generation models of WTTs were obtained from the Greek Center for Renewable Energy Sources and Savings (CRES), including drawings and photographic material from their demonstrative wind farm in the area of Keratea. A specific wind turbine was selected that is about to exceed its life expectancy and will soon be decommissioned. Two alternative applications for the reuse of the tower were proposed and analyzed, with emphasis on the structural aspects. One deals with the use of parts of the tower as a small-span pedestrian bridge, while the second addresses the transformation of a tower section into a water storage tank. Several decision factors have contributed to the selection of these two reuse scenarios, including, amongst others, the geometric compatibility of the decommissioned wind turbine tower with the proposed applications, engineering intuition about the tower having adequate strength for its new role, the potential to minimize fatigue loads in the reused state, the minimization of cutting and joining processes as much as possible to restrain further CO₂ emissions, reduction in waste material, the societal contribution of the potential reuse applications, etc. The two examples are briefly presented, aiming to demonstrate the concept and feasibility at the preliminary design level, highlighting the potential of decommissioned WTTs to find proper use for their future life. Full article

The transportation sector, as a major source of carbon emissions, plays a crucial role in the realization of dual carbon goals worldwide. In this study, an improved least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) is used to identify six key factors affecting transportation carbon emissions (TCEs) in China. Aiming at the spatio-temporal characteristics of transportation carbon emissions, a CNN-BiLSTM neural network model is constructed for the first time for prediction, and an improved whale optimization algorithm (EWOA) is introduced for hyperparameter optimization, finding that the prediction model combining spatio-temporal characteristics has a more significant prediction accuracy, and scenario forecasting was carried out using the prediction model. Research indicates that over the past three decades, TCEs have demonstrated a rapid growth trend. Under the baseline, green, low-carbon, and high-carbon scenarios, peak carbon emissions are expected in 2035, 2031, 2030, and 2040. The adoption of a low-carbon scenario represents the most advantageous pathway for the sustainable progression of China’s transportation sector. Consequently, it is imperative for China to accelerate the formulation and implementation of low-carbon policies, promote the application of clean energy and facilitate the green transformation of the transportation sector. These efforts will contribute to the early realization of dual-carbon goals with a positive impact on global sustainable development. Full article

Wind power has gained attention as a vital renewable energy source capable of reducing emissions and serving as an effective alternative to fossil fuels. Floating wind farms could significantly enhance the energy capacities of Mediterranean countries. However, location selection for offshore wind farms (OWFs) is a challenge for renewable energy policy and marine spatial planning (MSP). To address these issues, this study considers the marine space of Greece to propose a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify suitable sites for OWFs. The approach assesses 19 exclusion criteria encompassing legislative, environmental, safety, and technical constraints to determine the eligible areas. Subsequently, 10 evaluation criteria are weighted to determine the selected areas’ level of suitability. The study considers baseline conditions (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for two horizons (2011–2040 and 2041–2070), integrating projected wind velocities and sea level rise to evaluate potential shifts in suitable areas. Results indicate the central and southeastern Aegean Sea as the most suitable areas for OWF deployment. Climate projections indicate a modest increase in suitable areas. The findings serve as input for climate-resilient MSP seeking to promote sustainable energy development. Full article

The Tibetan-Himalayan region, recognized as a global biodiversity hotspot, is increasingly threatened by the dual pressures of climate change and human activities. Understanding the vulnerability of plant species to these forces is crucial for effective ecological conservation in this region. This study employed an improved Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework to assess the vulnerability of six representative alpine endemic herbaceous plants in this ecologically sensitive region under future climate changes. Our results show distinct spatial vulnerability patterns for the six species, with higher vulnerability in the western regions of the Tibetan-Himalayan region and lower vulnerability in the eastern areas. Particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), climate change is projected to substantially intensify threats to these plant species, reinforcing the imperative for targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, we found that the current coverage of protected areas (PAs) within the species’ habitats was severely insufficient, with less than 25% coverage overall, and it was even lower (<7%) in highly vulnerable regions. Human activity hotspots, such as the regions around Lhasa and Chengdu, further exacerbate species vulnerability. Notably, some species currently classified as least concern (e.g., Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea)) according to the IUCN Red List exhibit higher vulnerability than species listed as near threatened (e.g., Cyananthus microphyllus (C. microphylla)) under future climate change. These findings suggest that existing biodiversity assessments, such as the IUCN Red List, may not adequately account for future climate risks, highlighting the importance of incorporating climate change projections into conservation planning. Our study calls for expanding and optimizing PAs, improving management, and enhancing climate resilience to mitigate biodiversity loss in the face of climate change and human pressures. Full article

The mining industry (MI) in mineral-rich regions is pivotal for economic growth but is challenged by significant pollution and emissions. This study examines Guangxi, a representative region in China, in light of the country’s “Dual Carbon” goals. We quantified carbon emissions from the MI from 2005 to 2021, employing the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to analyze the factors driving these emissions. Additionally, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed, integrating economic, demographic, energy, environmental, and policy variables to assess decarbonization strategies and the potential for carbon decoupling. The key findings include the following: (1) Carbon accounting analysis reveals a rising emission trend in Guangxi’s MI, predominantly driven by electricity consumption, with the non-ferrous metal mining sector contributing the largest share of total emissions. (2) The primary drivers of carbon emissions were identified as economic scale, population intensity, and energy intensity, with periodic fluctuations in sector-specific drivers necessitating coordinated policy adjustments. (3) Scenario analysis showed that the Emission Reduction Scenario (ERS) is the only approach that achieves a carbon peak before 2030, indicating that it is the most effective decarbonization pathway. (4) Between 2022 and 2035, carbon decoupling from total output value is projected to improve under both the Energy-Saving Scenario (ESS) and ERS, achieving strong decoupling, while the resource extraction shows limited decoupling effects often displaying an expansionary connection. This study aims to enhance the understanding and promote the advancement of green and low-carbon development within the MI in mineral-rich regions. Full article

Effective in situ H₂S removal is essential for the utilization of small, remote natural gas wells, where centralized treatment is often unfeasible. This study presents an integrated environmental–economic assessment of two such processes, LO-CAT^® and triazine-based absorption, using a scenario-based framework. Environmental impacts were assessed via the Waste Reduction Algorithm (WAR), considering both Potential Environmental Impact (PEI) generation and output across eight categories, while economic performance was analyzed based on equipment, chemical, energy, environmental treatment, and labor costs. Results show that the triazine-based process offers superior environmental performance due to lower toxic emissions, whereas LO-CAT^® demonstrates better economic viability at higher gas flow rates and H₂S concentrations. An integrated assessment combining monetized environmental impacts with economic costs reveals that the triazine-based process becomes competitive only if environmental impacts are priced above specific thresholds. This study contributes a practical evaluation framework and scenario-based dataset that support sustainable process selection for decentralized sour gas treatment applications. Full article

Background: Increasing regulatory pressure for maritime decarbonization (e.g., IMO CII, FuelEU) drives adoption of low-carbon fuels and prompts reassessment of regional ports’ competitiveness. This study aims to evaluate the economic and environmental viability of rerouting deep-sea container services to regional ports in a decarbonizing world. Methods: A scenario-based analysis is used to evaluate total costs and CO₂ emissions across the entire container shipping supply chain, incorporating deep-sea shipping, port operations, feeder services, and inland rail/road transport. The Port of Liverpool serves as the primary case study for rerouting Asia–Europe services from major ports. Results: Analysis indicates Liverpool’s competitiveness improves with shipping lines’ slow steaming, growth in hinterland shipment volume, reductions in the emission factors of alternative low-carbon fuels, and an increased modal shift to rail matching that of competitor ports (e.g., Southampton). A dual-port strategy, rerouting services to call at both Liverpool and Southampton, shows potential for both economic and environmental benefits. Conclusions: The study concludes that rerouting deep-sea services to regional ports can offer cost and emission advantages under specific operational and market conditions. Findings on factors and conditions influencing competitiveness and the dual-port strategy provide insights for shippers, ports, shipping lines, logistics agents, and policymakers navigating maritime decarbonization. Full article

The sharing economy is considered to be a potentially efficacious approach for promoting sustainable production and consumption (SPC). This study utilizes dockless bike sharing (DBS) in Beijing as a case study to examine how sharing economy policies and business practices advance SPC. It also dynamically quantifies the environmental and economic performance of DBS practices from a life cycle perspective. The findings indicate that effective SPC practices can be achieved through the collaborative efforts of multiple stakeholders, including the government, operators, manufacturers, consumers, recycling agencies, and other business partners, supported by regulatory systems and advanced technologies. The SPC practices markedly improved the sustainability of DBS promotion in Beijing. This is evidenced by the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction benefits, which have risen from approximately 35.81 g CO₂-eq to 124.40 g CO₂-eq per kilometer of DBS travel. Considering changes in private bicycle ownership, this value could reach approximately 150.60 g CO₂-eq. Although the economic performance of DBS operators has also improved, it remains challenging to achieve profitability, even when considering the economic value of the emission reduction benefits. In certain scenarios, DBS can maximize profits by optimizing fleet size and efficiency, without compromising the benefits of emission reductions. The framework of stakeholder interaction proposed in this study and the results of empirical analysis not only assist regulators, businesses, and the public in better understanding and promoting sustainable production and consumption practices in the sharing economy but also provide valuable insights for achieving a win-win situation of platform profitability and environmental benefits in the SPC practice process. Full article

The pepper weevil Anthonomus eugenii is a devastating pest native to Central America that can cause severe damage to over 35 pepper varieties. Global trade in peppers has significantly increased the risk of its spread and expansion. Moreover, future climate change may add more uncertainty to its distribution, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage globally. Therefore, we employed an ensemble model combining Random Forests and CLIMEX to predict the potential global distribution of A. eugenii in historical and future climate scenarios. The results indicated that the maximum temperature of the warmest month is an important variable affecting global A. eugenii distribution. Under the historical climate scenario, the potential global distribution of A. eugenii is concentrated in the Midwestern and Southern United States, Central America, the La Plata Plain, parts of the Brazilian Plateau, the Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sub-Saharan Africa, Northern and Southern China, Southern India, Indochina Peninsula, and coastal area in Eastern Australia. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and China, are projected to expand toward higher latitudes. In China, the number of highly suitable areas is expected to increase significantly, mainly in the south and north. Contrastingly, suitable areas in Central America, northern South America, the Brazilian Plateau, India, and the Indochina Peninsula will become less suitable. The total land area suitable for A. eugenii under historical and future low- and high-emission climate scenarios accounted for 73.12, 66.82, and 75.97% of the global land area (except for Antarctica), respectively. The high-suitability areas identified by both models decreased by 19.05 and 35.02% under low- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. Building on these findings, we inferred the future expansion trends of A. eugenii globally. Furthermore, we provide early warning of A. eugenii invasion and a scientific basis for its spread and outbreak, facilitating the development of effective quarantine and control measures. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) change constitutes a critical driver influencing regional carbon cycling processes. Optimizing LULC structures represents a significant pathway toward the realization of carbon neutrality. This study takes Liaoning Province as a case area to analyze LULC changes from 2000 to 2020 and to assess their impacts on land use carbon emissions (LUCE) and ecosystem carbon storage (ECS). To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, four development scenarios are established: natural development (ND), low-carbon emission (LCE), high-carbon storage (HCS), and carbon neutrality (CN). For each scenario, corresponding optimization objectives and constraint conditions are defined, and a multi-objective LULC optimization coupling model is formulated to optimize both the quantity structure and spatial pattern of LULC. On this basis, the model quantifies ECS and LUCE under the four scenarios and evaluates the economic value of each scenario and its contribution to the carbon neutrality target. Results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the extensive expansion of construction land resulted in a reduction in ECS by 12.72 × 10⁶ t and an increase in LUCE by 150.44 × 10⁶ t; (2) Compared to the ND scenario, the LCE scenario exhibited the most significant performance in controlling carbon emissions, while the HCS scenario achieved the highest increase in carbon sequestration. The CN scenario showed significant advantages in reducing LUCE, enhancing ECS, and promoting economic growth, achieving a reduction of 0.18 × 10⁶ t in LUCE, an increase of 118.84 × 10⁶ t in ECS, and an economic value gain of 3386.21 × 10⁶ yuan. This study optimizes the LULC structure from the perspective of balancing economic development, LUCE reduction, and ECS enhancement. It addresses the inherent conflict between regional economic growth and ecological conservation, providing scientific evidence and policy insights for promoting LULC optimization and advancing carbon neutrality in similar regions. Full article