Search Results (343)

Catfish is a major commercial and subsistence species in Malawi, making its sustainability vital for local livelihoods and food security. However, limited evidence exists on the long-term biological and economic depletion of commercial catfish stocks. This study assessed the depletion status of the catfish fishery in the southeast arm of Lake Malawi using secondary catch and effort data from 2000 to 2023 obtained from the Malawi Department of Fisheries, and price and cost data obtained from the field study. Applying the bioeconomic Gordon–Schaefer model, the study estimated biological depletion and economic depreciation to quantify resource losses and evaluate the fishery’s sustainability. Constant and periodic harvesting strategies were examined to determine sustainable harvest thresholds. Results show that depletion occurred in 15 of the 24 years analysed, with a cumulative biomass loss of 446.1 tonnes and an estimated total depreciation of about MK 1.5 billion. These findings indicate exploitation beyond sustainable levels both biologically and economically, threatening stock recovery, long-term productivity, and economic viability. The study highlights the value of bioeconomic modelling in fishery assessment and underscores the urgent need for improved management, including strengthened monitoring, effort regulation, and enhanced enforcement, to ensure sustainable utilisation of catfish resources and protect dependent livelihoods. Full article

Rising non-performing assets (NPAs) remain a persistent threat to banking stability in emerging economies, including India. This study examines the role of conventional macroeconomic determinants in shaping NPA dynamics using annual panel data from 30 Indian banks over the period 2003–2022. Employing Robust Least Squares and dynamic modelling techniques, the analysis evaluates the impact of GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate movements, and repo rates, while addressing heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, and bank-level heterogeneity. The findings indicate that currency depreciation significantly increases NPAs, whereas inflation and tighter monetary policy exert a moderating effect. GDP, however, does not exhibit a significant influence, suggesting limited macroeconomic transmission to banking asset quality. To ensure appropriate model specification, stationarity tests are conducted, guiding the inclusion of dynamic elements in the analysis. Once the model is adjusted accordingly, the results consistently highlight the relative importance of macroeconomic factors without yielding conflicting interpretations. While broader theoretical perspectives such as institutional memory and balance-sheet effects are acknowledged for contextual relevance, they are not empirically tested in this study. Overall, the findings emphasize that conventional macroeconomic variables play a meaningful, though selective, role in explaining NPA behaviour, offering clearer and more consistent insights for policy and banking practice. Full article

This study investigates whether fluctuations in the real exchange rate give rise to symmetric or asymmetric J-curve effects in manufacturing trade between Türkiye and Germany, thereby positioning the analysis within and contributing to the broader scholarly discourse on exchange rate–trade balance dynamics. Using monthly data for the period 2013M01–2025M07, the paper first estimates a linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the bilateral manufacturing trade balance and subsequently extends the framework to a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) specification, which explicitly incorporates symmetry and asymmetry by decomposing real exchange rate changes into positive (depreciation) and negative (appreciation) partial sums. The linear ARDL results provide no evidence of a conventional J-curve and suggest that the aggregate impact of the real exchange rate is weak and often statistically insignificant. In contrast, the NARDL estimates uncover pronounced long-run and cumulative short-run asymmetries: real depreciations of the Turkish lira are associated with a persistent improvement in the bilateral manufacturing trade balance, whereas appreciations exert weak and statistically insignificant effects, a finding that remains robust when a real effective exchange rate measure is employed. Overall, the evidence indicates that Türkiye–Germany manufacturing trade does not conform to the standard J-curve pattern. These findings suggest that trade policy should adopt an asymmetric stance toward exchange rate movements: since depreciations yield persistent trade balance improvements while appreciations produce negligible effects, policies designed to support export competitiveness should prioritize the management of depreciation episodes rather than assuming symmetric adjustment dynamics. Full article

This study examines why currency substitution proves so difficult to reverse, even after countries succeed in stabilizing inflation. Focusing on Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey—economies that endured severe inflationary episodes before implementing stabilization programs—the paper asks a simple but important question: why does reliance on foreign currency persist long after inflation has been brought down? To answer this, the analysis adopts a structural time-series state-space framework that allows behavioral parameters to evolve gradually over time. Rather than assuming persistence, the model lets it emerge from the data and, crucially, compares alternative ways in which agents might form expectations about exchange rate movements. The evidence reveals a consistent pattern. By the end of the sample period, currency substitution remains statistically and economically significant in all four countries. The dominant expectation mechanism is extrapolative: agents tend to look at recent depreciation and assume it will continue. This tendency creates a reinforcing loop—when currencies depreciate, expectations of further depreciation strengthen, and the incentive to hold foreign currency intensifies. What makes these findings particularly striking is that this dynamic does not vanish once inflation is stabilized. Even in periods of relative macroeconomic calm, substitution persists. Past instability leaves a lasting imprint on expectations, and concerns about the durability of policy reforms continue to shape monetary behavior. In several cases, ongoing depreciation against the U.S. dollar further validates these cautious beliefs. As a result, the findings suggest that currency substitution is not merely a mechanical residue of past inflation. It is sustained by the way people form and update expectations in environments marked by credibility challenges. Stabilizing inflation is therefore a necessary step, but it is not enough on its own. Durable confidence in the domestic currency requires rebuilding credibility in a way that gradually reshapes expectations and restores trust over time. Full article

Aging drinking water infrastructure and persistent underinvestment have increased the frequency of service disruptions across public water systems in the United States, yet empirical evidence on the financial implications of such disruptions for water utilities remains limited. This study examines the relationship between boil water advisory (BWA) exposure and operating costs incurred by public water utilities using a cross-sectional dataset of 239 publicly owned community water systems in West Virginia during the 2023 fiscal year. Utility costs are measured using operating revenue deductions, an accounting measure capturing operating expenses, taxes, and depreciation. Regression results indicate a statistically significant positive association between cumulative BWA exposure and utility costs. Specifically, a one-day increase in advisory exposure is associated with approximately a 0.08% increase in operating deductions, implying an average cost increase of $1020 per utility for each day under advisory. Duration-based measures of BWA exposure explain cost variation more consistently than simple advisory counts, highlighting the importance of capturing persistence rather than frequency alone. These findings demonstrate that service reliability disruptions impose financial burdens on public water utilities and highlight the need to incorporate reliability considerations into infrastructure investment decisions, rate setting, and long-term financial planning, particularly for small and resource-constrained systems. Full article

Countries around the world are committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, significant challenges remain—particularly the economic consequences of climate change. Using a GVAR model for 17 economies over the period 2001M1–2021M12, we explore how temperature anomalies affect industrial production through four potential mechanisms: food prices, credit costs, exchange rates and investment. Our theoretical model demonstrates that temperature anomalies lower agricultural production, which drives up food prices and reduces real wages. This in turn leads to lower investment and production in the industrial sector. Our empirical results indicate that rising temperature anomalies are associated with a decrease in industrial production and investment, as well as the depreciation of domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. Additionally, we observe that the influence of temperature anomalies is more pronounced in hot regions than in cold regions. Our investigation underscores the importance of financial markets and investment as potential transmission channels for the impact of climate change on industrial production. This study provides empirical evidence to support policymaking aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change, thereby helping countries to advance toward key SDGs such as no poverty, zero hunger, and climate action. Full article

This study investigates how geopolitical risk shaped the green economic efficiency (GEE) of 19 countries in the G20 group from 2000 to 2022. Using the Super-SBM model, we construct a cross-country measure of GEE and empirically examine both its determinants and underlying mechanisms. The results show that rising geopolitical risk significantly undermines GEE, indicating that external uncertainty disrupts countries’ ability to balance economic growth with environmental performance. Mechanism analysis reveals that geopolitical tensions heighten energy security concerns, leading to increased fossil fuel consumption, and trigger exchange rate depreciation to decrease green economic efficiency. Moreover, foreign direct investment mitigates the adverse effects of geopolitical risk by facilitating technology spillovers and capital inflows. Moreover, geopolitical risks have different impacts on the efficiency of a country’s green economy, varying across levels such as the country’s economic development level, resource endowment, and trade openness. The findings highlight geopolitical risk as a constraint on global green transition. Policymakers should strengthen energy source diversity, stabilize exchange rate environments, and promote FDI to enhance national resilience. Building institutional capacity is essential in sustaining green economic efficiency under rising geopolitical uncertainty. Full article

Additive manufacturing (AM) has emerged as an enabling technology for producing lightweight and geometrically complex components in aerospace applications. This study investigates alternative manufacturing routes for a critical servo bracket used in a Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) platform, aiming to comparatively evaluate their environmental, economic, and operational performance within a life cycle perspective. The servo bracket was manufactured using CNC milling, Selective Laser Melting (SLM), and Metal Extrusion Additive Manufacturing (MEX/M) and the three routes were assessed using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Cost (LCC), and process-based indicators, including production time and production process. The results indicate that CNC milling exhibits the highest carbon footprint per part (156.3 kg CO₂-eq.), mainly due to aluminium chip waste, whereas electricity consumption is the dominant contributor in SLM. Production times were 8.9 h for CNC, 52.7 h for SLM, and 71.6 h for MEX/M. From an economic perspective, CNC provides the lowest unit cost, while SLM is associated with the highest cost due to machine depreciation. Overall, the findings highlight distinct trade-offs between conventional and metal additive manufacturing routes and provide a life cycle-based decision framework for selecting suitable manufacturing strategies for VTOL UAV structural components. Full article

The study documents the impact of the external sector on movements of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), covering conventional and Islamic indices. Selected variables include international trade, foreign investment, remittances, oil, gold, and currency markets, as well as the KSE-100 and KMI-30 indices. The sample period covers the latest 130 months, from 2015/01 to 2025/10. Results are documented through descriptive statistics, pairwise correlations, and OLS regression. Stability of coefficients during the review period is checked by calculating BTC-Var and switching Var. Outstanding momentum is evident in market indices (in the final phase), accompanied by growth in remittances, while the national currency has experienced an alarming depreciation. The combined impact of the external sector is not in the higher range for either index (adjusted R-square values are low). A group of four variables (remittances, oil, gold, and currency markets) was significant for the conventional index, while a group of three variables (oil, gold, and currency markets) was significant for the Islamic index. All significant variables contribute positively to stock index movements, except the exchange rate. BTC-Var and switching var suggest instability of relationships and regime-dependent var dynamics. The findings are beneficial for managers and investors in predicting index movements and portfolio diversification, as well as for relevant authorities in making policy decisions that promote prudent exchange-rate management and facilitate remittances. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is among the few that jointly examine the impact of external-sector variables on stock market movements. Full article

This study investigates how the origin and language of public attention influence financial markets during geopolitical conflict, using Israel’s experience during the 2023–2025 Gaza War as a case study. We use Google Trends data—in Hebrew, English, and Arabic, sourced both worldwide and domestically—to explain fluctuations in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange’s TA-35 Index and the Israeli shekel’s exchange rates (USD/ILS and EUR/ILS). The results uncover a striking asymmetry: international searches, especially those in Hebrew and English, have significant power to explain Israeli market performance, while local, domestic searches are largely insignificant. Specifically, global Hebrew attention is positively associated with the shekel appreciating, suggesting that expressions of confidence or solidarity from the diaspora may actively reinforce market stability. In contrast, spikes in global English-language searches correspond with lower equity returns and temporary shekel depreciation, consistent with heightened international risk perception. These findings demonstrate that transnational behavioral networks and diaspora attention critically shape financial resilience during war. By integrating behavioral finance, conflict economics, and computational analytics, this research shows that the geographic and linguistic origin of attention, not just its sheer volume, is the key determinant of market reactions in times of crisis. Full article

The global shift toward electric mobility represents a cornerstone of sustainable energy transitions; however, developing countries face distinct structural, economic, and infrastructural challenges that constrain their participation in this transformation. This paper examines the conditions, policy frameworks, and infrastructural requirements necessary for a successful electric vehicle (EV) transition in developing countries, with particular attention to the interplay between energy access, transportation policy, and grid readiness. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates policy analysis, partial life-cycle assessment (LCA) with the second-hand market, and case studies across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the study evaluates the implications of limited electricity access, unreliable power grids, and the dominance of informal transport systems on EV adoption. The findings reveal that, while EVs offer significant potential for reducing emissions and improving urban air quality, their deployment depends critically on coordinated investments in renewable-based electricity generation, charging infrastructure, and supportive regulatory frameworks. Policy strategies such as fiscal incentives, public–private partnerships, and decentralized charging networks can accelerate uptake when aligned with energy-access goals. The paper argues that the EV transition in developing economies must be policy-driven and context-adapted, integrating mobility electrification with broader agendas of energy justice, rural electrification, and industrial development. Ultimately, the research provides a roadmap for aligning electric mobility policies with sustainable infrastructure development to ensure that the global EV revolution becomes both inclusive and equitable. Full article

This study investigates creative accounting practices and their effects on reported financial position, performance, and risk indicators in Romanian listed companies. Using a mixed research design, the analysis combines a perception-based survey of financial–accounting professionals with a scenario-based financial case study, allowing for a comparison between perceived and actual effects of discretionary accounting techniques. The survey results indicate that professionals perceive creative accounting practices as having a significant influence on financial reporting outcomes, particularly in areas characterized by high managerial discretion, such as provisions, depreciation policies, inventory valuation methods, asset revaluation, and capitalization of research and development expenditures. The empirical case study confirms that these techniques generate observable changes in key financial indicators; however, the magnitude and direction of their effects vary across accounting methods and reporting periods. A key contribution of this study lies in highlighting a discrepancy between perceived and measured effects of creative accounting. While practitioners accurately identify the accounting areas most exposed to discretion, the empirical results suggest that the financial impact of creative accounting practices is often more moderate and context-dependent than commonly assumed. In addition, a descriptive assessment of fraud risk indicators suggests that extensive use of discretionary accounting practices may be associated with elevated risk exposure, without constituting direct evidence of fraudulent behavior. Full article

Persistent inflation has intensified uncertainty in the construction industry, particularly in volatile economies. Inflation-driven risks affecting Turkish residential projects are examined in this study, focusing on rising costs, fluctuating labor and material prices, and associated risks. The power-based linguistic hedges were used to quantify dominant severity levels under uncertainty based on descriptive statistics and standard deviation thresholds. Results indicate that inflation mostly impacts projects through budget overruns and wage inflation, which exhibit the highest severity and crisis-level risk behaviors. A number of factors drive material price volatility, particularly macroeconomic instability, currency depreciation, and supply-chain disruptions. There is a sustained pressure on contractor profitability due to wage inflation. In contrast, inflation-related effects on schedule, quality, safety, and contractual disputes are secondary and context-dependent. The findings indicate a structural shift in the risk profile of Turkish residential construction, indicating a need for inflation-resilient cost management, adaptive contracting, and proactive labor planning. Full article

This research examines the impact of positive crude oil revenue shocks on Russia’s macroeconomic policy and economic development, analyzes the effects of macroeconomic policy on the economy, and compares these effects across two subsamples (2005–2013 and 2015–2019). The study proves that the full 2005–2019 model fails to capture the transmission responses of policy and macroeconomic variables after the significant structural shift in the post-2014 period, while subsample models each provide a better fit and more accurate results. Our empirical research provides the following insights: First, after 2014, fiscal expansion shifted from an anti-inflationary tool to an inflationary driver as well as a depreciating force on the national currency. Second, after 2014 the monetary policy’s tight stance became explicitly anti-inflationary compared with its direct opposite effects before 2014. Third, after 2014, the central bank’s more dominant inflation-targeting regime tightened the constraints on fiscal policy. Fourth, the Russian Federation’s economic dependence on oil diminished after 2014. Finally, macroeconomic policy (government expenditure and key interest rate) shifted from procyclical to countercyclical in response to oil revenue shocks after 2014. Full article

Interim periods between peak and off-peak operations in urban rail transit networks often suffer from mismatched headways across lines, which increases passenger transfer waiting and operating costs. This paper proposes a passenger-oriented timetable synchronization method for network-wide interim period train service. In this study, based on the AFC data, passengers are assigned to the shortest travel time paths, and passenger transfer flows are linked to connecting train pairs by consideration of the maximum acceptable waiting time. As a result, the transfer waiting time is accurately calculated by matching passengers’ platform arrival times with the departures of feasible connecting trains. A mixed integer nonlinear programming model then jointly optimizes departure headways at each line’s first station, arrival and departure times at transfer stations, subject to safety headways and time bounds. The objective minimizes total cost, combining transfer waiting time cost and train operating cost (depreciation and distance-related cost). A simulated-annealing-based genetic algorithm (SA-GA) is designed to solve the NP-hard problem. A case study on the Nanjing rail transit network from 6:30 to 7:30 reduces total cost by 6.88%, including 3.77% lower transfer waiting time cost and 14.49% lower operating cost, and shows stable results under typical transfer demand fluctuations. Full article