Search Results (73)

A funnel cloud is a rotating column of air that extends from the cloud base towards the ground yet does not touch the ground. It can be the precursor to a tornado or waterspout. The associated high winds can be destructive. This paper analyzed the meteorological observations for a funnel cloud spotted at Zhuhai in the afternoon of 8 May 2026, and performed simulation of its associated mesocyclone to study the formation mechanism of the funnel cloud. The funnel cloud was found to occur within a surface trough of low pressure under moderately unstable atmospheric conditions; winds were generally weak in the atmospheric boundary layer and the middle troposphere was wavy. The vorticity in the atmospheric boundary layer was lifted by the upward motion associated with the mid-tropospheric waves and daytime heating to form a funnel cloud; such a mechanism is supported by observations and model simulations. The weather radar generally captured the shallow convection and the radar-analyzed wind field depicted significant updraft in the reflectivity core associated with the mesocyclone. On the simulation side, the atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model with radar data assimilation captured the isolated cyclonic feature near Zhuhai and the upward motion of the air column. Apart from the formation mechanism, this paper documented this rare event as a step forward in building up the climatology for the atmospheric conditions favourable for funnel cloud formation in the region. Full article

In the period 2 to 4 March 2026, two rainstorms with intense convective weather occurred within and in the vicinity of Hong Kong, China, in the early rain season of the year in southern China. This is rather uncommon because the atmosphere is still generally stable (with very low or even zero value of convective available potential energy), and upper tropospheric divergence does not yet exist in the region climatologically. The rain episode is documented in this paper from both observational and forecasting aspects. On the observational side, a low-level vortex is found on and near the surface based on Doppler velocity measurements from a newly installed C-band solid-state weather radar. Combining the three-dimensional wind field as retrieved from the weather data and the measurements from the other ground-based remote-sensing meteorological equipment, the intense convection is mainly triggered by middle to lower tropospheric waves, and the vertical circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer may be stretched vertically upward to form the low-level vortex. In the second rainstorm, features of elevated thunderstorms are also identified. On the forecasting side, a high-resolution, limited-area atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model manages to capture the occurrence and the timing of the heavy rain. The sub-seasonal forecast by a global model also provides a useful indication of the occurrence of above-normal rainfall over southern China, with a rather special feature of a deep and stationary westerly trough located to the north of the Indochina Peninsula. The microscale cyclone could be successfully picked up by the real-time run of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model with data assimilation. This paper also discusses the weather service aspect of this rather unusual rainstorm episode. Full article

The Zhuanghe coast in the northern part of the Yellow Sea is one of China’s important fishing and ocean engineering areas. Frequent storm surge events pose a significant threat to residents’ safety and properties. This study used the coupled Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) and the Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to investigate storm surges and wave heights during Typhoons Muifa (1109) and Lekima (1909) in the northern parts of the Yellow Sea and analyze the impact of the typhoon parameters on flood inundation on the Zhuanghe coast. The wind stress comparison in the coupled wave–current model uses synthetic wind field data formed by superimposing ERA5 wind fields with a parameterized typhoon model. The results showed that the simulated and measured tide levels, wave heights, and storm surges were in good agreement, indicating that the coupled model accurately reproduced the dynamics of the storm surges and wave heights during the two typhoons. The maximum significant wave height (H_s) exhibited a right-skewed distribution in the two typhoons’ paths, with extreme values consistently located to the right of the typhoon’s center. The decrease in atmospheric pressure at the center of Typhoon Muifa was significantly, nonlinearly, and positively correlated with the severity of storm surge disasters. A significant correlation was observed between the path of Typhoon Muifa and the disaster intensity. Full article

Based on the COAWST (Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport) model, this study developed an atmospheric refractivity forecasting model incorporating ensemble bias correction by combining five bias correction algorithms with the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. Hindcast tests conducted over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea regions demonstrated that the ensemble bias correction enhanced both forecasting accuracy and adaptability. On the one hand, the corrected forecasting outperformed the original COAWST model in terms of mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC), with the RMSE reduced by approximately 20% below 3000 m altitude. On the other hand, the corrected forecasting reduced the uncertainty associated with the performance of different algorithms. In particular, during typhoon events, the corrected forecasting maintained stable bias characteristics across different height layers through dynamic weight adjustment. Throughout the hindcast period, the ME of the corrected forecasting was lower than that of any single bias correction algorithm. Moreover, compared with other ensemble methods, the corrected forecasting developed in this study achieved more flexible weight allocation through Bayesian optimization, resulting in lower ME. In addition, the corrected forecasting maintained an improvement of approximately 28% in bias reduction even at a 72 h forecasting lead time, demonstrating their robustness and reliability under complex weather conditions. Full article

Upper oceans are highly energetic during a severe weather event, with large surface waves and intense ocean currents over areas affected by the storm. An advanced and coupled wave–current modelling system for the northwestern Atlantic (WCMS-NWA) was developed by the Regional Modelling Group at Dalhousie University for simulating surface waves and three-dimensional ocean currents over the eastern Canadian shelf and adjacent waters. Applications of this modelling system during different weather events have been discussed separately in the past. In this overview, the model performances of WCMS-NWA and major hydrodynamics over the study region during 11 severe storms are summarized. Comparisons of model results with in situ oceanographic observations and satellite data demonstrate the suitability and accuracy of WCMS-NWA in simulating ocean circulation and surface waves during normal weather conditions and intense ocean currents and extreme surface waves during severe storm events. It is shown that satisfactory model performance of WCMS-NWA requires reliable temporal–spatial representations of atmospheric forcing and inclusions of interactions between waves and currents (WCIs). Important contributions from WCIs during these severe weather conditions are discussed based on the model results. Full article

Storm surge dynamics in coastal zones and estuaries are complex, driven by coupled oceanic and terrestrial interactions that enhance the risk of coastal disasters. This study investigates storm surge characteristics and mechanisms in the Macao Cross Tidal Channel (MCTC), located in the Macao Sea Area (MSA). A tide-surge coupled numerical model was established using the unstructured grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model was rigorously validated against tide gauge data from Typhoon Hato, demonstrating strong performance, with a skill score of 0.95 and a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.94. The spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of storm surge dynamics in the MCTC were elucidated. The results show that the MCTC’s complex geometry induces a geometric funneling effect, which substantially amplifies the storm surge compared with adjacent locations in the estuary and open sea. During the typhoon period, coastal geomorphology affects winds, tide levels, currents, and waves, which in turn spatially and temporally modulate the storm surge. Wind is the primary driver, but its effect is modulated by nonlinear interactions with waves, including enhanced bottom friction and wave set-down. In isolation, the wind-induced component contributed approximately 106% of the peak total surge. This overestimation quantitatively highlights the critical role of nonlinear interactions, where wave-enhanced bottom friction acts as a major energy sink, and wave set-down directly suppresses the water level at the channel entrance. The individual peak contributions from atmospheric pressure and wave were approximately 5% and 17%, respectively, but these peaks occurred out of phase with the storm surge. Energy transformation analysis based on the Bernoulli principle revealed a distinct conversion from potential to kinetic energy in the constricted transverse waterway, while the longitudinal waterway exhibited a more gradual energy change. These findings enhance the mechanistic understanding of storm surges in complex, constricted estuaries and can inform targeted strategies for coastal hazard mitigation in the Macao region. Full article

Severe Typhoon Danas over the northern part of the South China Sea and seas near Taiwan in early July 2025 had an erratic path that had not been observed before, according to historical data in the region. Its formation, movement, and intensification posed significant challenges to the timely tropical cyclone (TC) warning services. This paper documents the observational aspect and forecasting aspect of this cyclone. There are key findings: (a) when Danas interacted with the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan, a “secondary cyclone” appeared over the northeastern part of Taiwan, which was observed by both weather radars and meteorological satellite winds, and was simulated to a certain extent by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model; (b) data-driven AI global models performed better than physics-based global NWP models in capturing the formation and the rather erratic track of Danas a couple of days earlier, although AI models generally underestimate the intensity forecasts; and (c) an atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model was found to perform the best in capturing both the track changes of Danas (because of being driven by an AI global model) and its intensity changes (because of better physical representation of the oceanic impact on the intensity of this TC), whereas AI global models, though with various recent enhancements, still tended to underestimate the strength of Danas. This paper serves as a reference of this rather unusual TC for the weather forecasting services in the region. Full article

Using multiple reanalysis datasets, this study investigates the decadal variability in the relationship between Northeast Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO), with a focus on the role of atmospheric dynamics in mediating this connection. A significant decadal shift is identified around the year 2000, characterized by a weakening of the previously strong negative correlation between January–February SST anomalies and February–March ASO. Prior to 2000 (1980–2000), warm SST in the northeastern Pacific suppressed upward planetary wave propagation, resulting in decreased stratospheric wave activity and a weakened Brewer–Dobson circulation. The weakened BD circulation reduced poleward transport of tropical ozone and heat, yielding a colder, ozone-poor polar vortex. The strong relationship enabled skillful seasonal predictability of ASO using SST precursors in a linear regression model. However, post-2000 (2001–2022), the weakened planetary wave response to SST anomalies resulted in a breakdown of this relationship, yielding non-significant predictive skill. The findings highlight the non-stationary nature of ocean-stratosphere coupling and underscore the importance of accounting for such decadal shifts in climate models to improve projections of Arctic ozone recovery and its surface climate impacts. Full article

The Bohai Bay is particularly vulnerable to storm surges triggered by extratropical storms or cold-air outbreaks. A coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model with high resolution is presented and applied to simulate a cold-air outbreak that happened in late November 2004. The surge dynamics are examined in detail. Each model component is separately validated, demonstrating that the triply coupled system can reproduce intense winds, storm surge amplitudes, and significant surface waves with high fidelity. The potential coupling effects on the simulation results are investigated. Six experiments are performed covering various coupling models, and a two-way nesting technique is utilized during simulation. After comparison it shows that there is little difference in wind speed between the three numerical models and that the reanalysis data may significantly underestimate extreme winds. The evident improvements are obtained for peak values of water level when using the atmosphere–ocean coupled configuration versus uncoupled model simulation. It also can be found that the negative surge can be captured by each of the coupled and uncoupled models. The ocean–wave coupled configuration yields significant wave heights that closely match in situ measurements, underscoring the critical role of ocean–wave interaction in storm wave prediction. Our findings confirm that the fully coupled model is well-suited for forecasting extratropical storm surge in Bohai Bay. Northeast winds emerge as the primary driver, with the western coast of Bohai Bay bearing the greatest impact. Full article

Air–sea interactions play a pivotal role in shaping cyclone development and evolution. In this context, this study investigates the role of ocean optical properties and solar radiation penetration in modulating subsurface heat content and their subsequent influence on the intensity of Mediterranean cyclones. Using a regional coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model, we conducted sensitivity experiments for Storm Daniel (2023) comparing two solar radiation penetration schemes in the ocean model component: one with a constant light attenuation depth and another with chlorophyll-dependent attenuation based on satellite estimates. Results show that the chlorophyll-driven radiative heating scheme consistently produces warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) prior to cyclone onset, leading to stronger cyclones characterized by deeper minimum mean sea-level pressure, intensified convective activity, and increased rainfall. However, post-storm SST cooling is also amplified due to stronger wind stress and vertical mixing, potentially influencing subsequent local atmospheric conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that ocean bio-optical processes can meaningfully impact Mediterranean cyclone behavior, highlighting the importance of using appropriate underwater light attenuation schemes and ocean color remote sensing data in coupled models. Full article

Simulations are conducted using a microscale model framework to quantify differences in projected Annual Energy Production (AEP), Capacity Factor (CF) and wake losses for large offshore wind farms that arise due to different input datasets, installed capacity density (ICD) and/or wake parameterizations. Differences in CF (and AEP) and wake losses that arise due to the selection of the wake parameterization have the same magnitude as varying the ICD within the likely range of 2–9 MW km⁻². CF simulated with most wake parameterizations have a near-linear relationship with ICD in this range, and the slope of the dependency on ICD is similar to that in mesoscale simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Microscale simulations show that remotely generated wakes can double AEP losses in individual lease areas (LA) within a large LA cluster. Finally, simulations with the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model are shown to differ in terms of wake-induced AEP reduction from those with the WRF model by up to 5%, but this difference is smaller than differences in CF caused by the wind farm parameterization used in the mesoscale modeling. Enhanced evaluation of mesoscale and microscale wake parameterizations against observations of climatological representative AEP and time-varying power production from wind farm Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data remains critical to improving the accuracy of predictive AEP modeling for large offshore wind farms. Full article

In this study, a dynamic load forecasting model was developed for offshore wind turbines, based on the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) model, the GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) algorithm, and a data assimilation module. The model was able to forecast aerodynamic, wave, and current loads acting on the turbines. Four groups of forecasting tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s performance under different strategies and to assess the impact of atmospheric assimilation on improving dynamic load forecasts. The wind turbines in Cangnan Offshore Wind Farm, located in the west of the East China Sea, were chosen as the study object. The results indicated that the model achieved high forecasting accuracy, with the RMSEs (root mean square errors) of 275.59 kN, 335.85 kN, and 313.51 N, for the aerodynamic, wave, and current loads. The errors were reduced by about 13%, 10.09%, and 6.7% when compared with the original COAWST model, and were also lower than the atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data. Atmospheric data assimilation was demonstrated to reduce the forecasting RMSE of aerodynamic load by about 12%, and its error improvement was able to be combined with GRU-based error correction. Additionally, atmospheric assimilation mitigated the reduction in temporal variability caused by forecasting error correction, preventing a decrease in the standard deviation of aerodynamic load forecasts. However, atmospheric assimilation had minimal impacts on wave and current load forecasts, with the RMSEs increased by about 2.5% and 0.1%, and had almost the same performance in correlation coefficients and standard deviations. Full article

As the core components of geophysical dynamic system, oceans and atmospheres are dominated by the Coriolis force, which governs complex dynamic phenomena such as internal waves, gravity currents, vortices, and others involving multi-scale spatiotemporal coupling. Due to the limitations of in situ observations, large-scale rotating tanks have emerged as critical experimental platforms for simulating Earth’s rotational effects. This review summarizes recent advancements in rotating tank applications for studying oceanic flow phenomena, including mesoscale eddies, internal waves, Ekman flows, Rossby waves, gravity currents, and bottom boundary layer dynamics. Advanced measurement techniques, such as particle image velocimetry (PIV) and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), have enabled quantitative analyses of internal wave breaking-induced mixing and refined investigations of vortex merging dynamics. The findings demonstrate that large-scale rotating tanks provide a controllable experimental framework for unraveling the physical essence of geophysical fluid motions. Such laboratory experimental endeavors in a rotating tank can be applied to more extensive scientific topics, in which the rotation and stratification play important roles, offering crucial support for climate model parameterization and coupled ocean–land–atmosphere mechanisms. Full article

As the primary driver of energy transfer between atmospheric and oceanic systems, the air–sea momentum flux fundamentally governs coupled model dynamics through its regulation of wind stress partitioning. Given the complexity of the physical processes involved, simplified representations of these interactions are widely adopted to balance computational efficiency and physical fidelity. This systematic evaluation of five wind stress parameterizations reveals scheme-dependent variability in momentum partitioning efficiency, particularly under typhoon conditions. Our results quantify how the wind stress drag coefficient’s formulation alters atmosphere–ocean feedback, with wave-state aware schemes exhibiting superior surge prediction accuracy compared to wind-speed-dependent approaches. Specifically, a larger wind stress drag coefficient leads to increased atmospheric bottom stress and sea surface stress, resulting in weaker winds and larger sea surface currents and storm surges. These findings provide actionable guidelines into the performance and sensitivity of various air–sea coupled models and offer useful suggestions for improving operational marine forecasting systems. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) form over warm ocean surfaces and are driven by complex air–sea interactions, posing significant challenges to their forecasting. Accurate parameterization of physical processes is crucial for enhancing the precision of TC predictions. In this study, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Simulating Waves Nearshore (WRF-SWAN) model to forecast Typhoon Doksuri (2023), which exhibited a secondary intensification process in the South China Sea (SCS). We also investigated its sensitivity to various atmospheric physical parameterization schemes (PPS). The findings indicate that improvements in microphysical and cumulus convection parameterizations have significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy of Typhoon Doksuri’s trajectory and intensity. The simulation of sea surface heat flux is primarily influenced by the microphysical scheme, while the cumulus convection scheme substantially affects the representation of the typhoon core’s size and shape. Variations in the wind field induce differences in wave height, potentially reaching up to 2–3 m at any given moment. This study provides valuable insights into the effective selection of physical parameterizations for improving typhoon forecasts. Full article