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Special Issue "Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 March 2019).

Special Issue Editors

Guest Editor
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Momcilo Markus

Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, USA
Website | E-Mail
Phone: 217-333-0237
Interests: Hydroclimatology, Climate Projections, Trends in Water Contaminants, River Flow and Water Quality Forecasting, Stochastic Hydrology, Data Mining
Guest Editor
Prof. Dr. Ximing Cai

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois, USA
Website | E-Mail
Phone: 217-333-4935
Interests: Energy-Water-Environment Sustainability, Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Systems, Water Resources Engineering and Science, Floods, Droughts
Guest Editor
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ryan Sriver

Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Illinois, USA
Website | E-Mail
Phone: 217-300-0364
Interests: Climate Dynamics, Earth System Modeling, Weather and Climate Extremes, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Hydroclimatic extremes such as floods and droughts affect all aspects of our lives and the environment, including energy, hydropower, agriculture, transportation, urban life, and human health and safety. For many geographic regions, climate projections indicate that the risk of increased flooding and/or more severe droughts will be higher in the future than today. On the other hand, the large uncertainty of projected hydroclimatic extremes makes it very challenging to design planning and management measures that would account for their trends. There is an increasing need for water researchers and practitioners to address these concerns.

This Special Issue calls for innovative manuscripts with a focus on projected hydroclimatic extremes and their impacts. Topic examples include the following:

  • Uncertainty analysis/quantification of projected hydroclimatic variables
  • Urban floods, droughts, and resiliency planning for extreme events
  • Water supplies
  • Effects of climate change on water quality
  • Other (e.g., socioeconomic, demographic, regulatory, planning and management) aspects of projected floods and droughts

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Momcilo Markus
Prof. Dr. Ximing Cai
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ryan Sriver
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • hydrologic floods
  • hydrologic droughts
  • climate projections
  • climate extremes
  • urban flooding
  • water quality
  • climate uncertainty

Published Papers (10 papers)

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Editorial

Jump to: Research

Open AccessEditorial
Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios
Water 2019, 11(8), 1720; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081720
Received: 12 August 2019 / Accepted: 12 August 2019 / Published: 19 August 2019
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Abstract
Climate projections indicate that in many regions of the world the risk of increased flooding or more severe droughts will be higher in the future. To account for these trends, hydrologists search for the best planning and management measures in an increasingly complex [...] Read more.
Climate projections indicate that in many regions of the world the risk of increased flooding or more severe droughts will be higher in the future. To account for these trends, hydrologists search for the best planning and management measures in an increasingly complex and uncertain environment. The collection of manuscripts in this Special Issue quantifies the changes in projected hydroclimatic extremes and their impacts using a suite of innovative approaches applied to regions in North America, Asia, and Europe. To reduce the uncertainty and warrant the applicability of the research on projections of future floods and droughts, their continued development and testing using newly acquired observational data are critical. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

Open AccessArticle
A Comparative Analysis of the Historical Accuracy of the Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates of Four Data Sets and Their Projections for the Northeastern United States
Water 2019, 11(6), 1279; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061279
Received: 2 May 2019 / Revised: 4 June 2019 / Accepted: 14 June 2019 / Published: 19 June 2019
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Abstract
Many studies have projected that as the climate changes, the magnitudes of extreme precipitation events in the Northeastern United States are likely to continue increasing, regardless of the emission scenario. To examine this issue, we analyzed observed and modeled daily precipitation frequency (PF) [...] Read more.
Many studies have projected that as the climate changes, the magnitudes of extreme precipitation events in the Northeastern United States are likely to continue increasing, regardless of the emission scenario. To examine this issue, we analyzed observed and modeled daily precipitation frequency (PF) estimates in the Northeastern US on the rain gauge station scale based on both annual maximum series (AMS) and partial duration series (PDS) methods. We employed four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) downscaled data sets, including a probabilistic statistically downscaled data set developed specifically for this study. The ability of these four data sets to reproduce the observed features of historical point PF estimates was compared, and the two with the best historical accuracy, including the newly developed probabilistic data set, were selected to produce projected PF estimates under two CMIP5-based emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). These projections indeed demonstrate a likely increase in PF estimates in the Northeastern US with noted differences in magnitudes and spatial distributions between the two data sets and between the two scenarios. We also quantified how the exceedance probabilities of the historical PF estimate values are likely to increase under each scenario using the two best performing data sets. Notably, an event with a current exceedance probability of 0.01 (a 100-year event) may have an exceedance probability for the second half of the 21st century of ≈0.04 (a 27-year event) under the RCP4.5 scenario and ≈0.05 (a 19-year event) under RCP8.5. Knowledge about the projected changes to the magnitude and frequency of heavy precipitation in this region will be relevant for the socio-economic and environmental evaluation of future infrastructure projects and will allow for better management and planning decisions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme High and Low Flows: An Improved Bottom-Up Approach
Water 2019, 11(6), 1236; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061236
Received: 2 May 2019 / Revised: 8 June 2019 / Accepted: 10 June 2019 / Published: 13 June 2019
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Abstract
A quantitative assessment of the likelihood of all possible future states is lacking in both the traditional top-down and the alternative bottom-up approaches to the assessment of climate change impacts. The issue is tackled herein by generating a large number of representative climate [...] Read more.
A quantitative assessment of the likelihood of all possible future states is lacking in both the traditional top-down and the alternative bottom-up approaches to the assessment of climate change impacts. The issue is tackled herein by generating a large number of representative climate projections using weather generators calibrated with the outputs of regional climate models. A case study was performed on the South Nation River Watershed located in Eastern Ontario, Canada, using climate projections generated by four climate models and forced with medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future 30-year period (2071–2100). These raw projections were corrected using two downscaling techniques. Large ensembles of future series were created by perturbing downscaled data with a stochastic weather generator, then used as inputs to a hydrological model that was calibrated using observed data. Risk indices calculated with the simulated streamflow data were converted into probability distributions using Kernel Density Estimations. The results are dimensional joint probability distributions of risk-relevant indices that provide estimates of the likelihood of unwanted events under a given watershed configuration and management policy. The proposed approach offers a more complete vision of the impacts of climate change and opens the door to a more objective assessment of adaptation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
A Study on Climate-Driven Flash Flood Risks in the Boise River Watershed, Idaho
Water 2019, 11(5), 1039; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051039
Received: 15 March 2019 / Revised: 13 May 2019 / Accepted: 14 May 2019 / Published: 18 May 2019
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Abstract
We conducted a study on climate-driven flash flood risk in the Boise River Watershed using flood frequency analysis and climate-driven hydrological simulations over the next few decades. Three different distribution families, including the Gumbel Extreme Value Type I (GEV), the 3-parameter log-normal (LN3) [...] Read more.
We conducted a study on climate-driven flash flood risk in the Boise River Watershed using flood frequency analysis and climate-driven hydrological simulations over the next few decades. Three different distribution families, including the Gumbel Extreme Value Type I (GEV), the 3-parameter log-normal (LN3) and log-Pearson type III (LP3) are used to explore the likelihood of potential flash flood based on the 3-day running total streamflow sequences (3D flows). Climate-driven ensemble streamflows are also generated to evaluate how future climate variability affects local hydrology associated with potential flash flood risks. The result indicates that future climate change and variability may contribute to potential flash floods in the study area, but incorporating embedded-uncertainties inherited from climate models into water resource planning would be still challenging because grand investments are necessary to mitigate such risks within institutional and community consensus. Nonetheless, this study will provide useful insights for water managers to plan out sustainable water resources management under an uncertain and changing climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies
Water 2019, 11(5), 1032; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051032
Received: 20 March 2019 / Revised: 30 April 2019 / Accepted: 10 May 2019 / Published: 17 May 2019
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Abstract
In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as “analogs” that behave [...] Read more.
In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as “analogs” that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km 2 catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
Climate Change Impacts on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation and Water Quality in the Hetao Area, China
Water 2019, 11(4), 652; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040652
Received: 26 February 2019 / Revised: 20 March 2019 / Accepted: 21 March 2019 / Published: 29 March 2019
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Abstract
Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) is an extreme hydrological phenomenon caused by meteorological anomalies. To combat the climate change, the watershed integrated management model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT)—was used to simulate DFAA, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1961 to [...] Read more.
Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) is an extreme hydrological phenomenon caused by meteorological anomalies. To combat the climate change, the watershed integrated management model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT)—was used to simulate DFAA, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1961 to 2050, based on measured precipitation data in the Hetao area and the downscaled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios. In the future, the increase in temperature and the increase in extreme precipitation will aggravate the pollution of water bodies. Results indicate that the risk of water quality exceeding the standard will increase when DFAA happens, and the risk of water quality exceeding the standard was the greatest in the case of drought-to-flood events. Results also indicate that, against the backdrop of increasing temperature and increasing precipitation in the future, the frequency of long-cycle and short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI, SDFAI) in the Hetao area will continue to decrease, and the number of DFAA situations will decrease. However, the zone of high-frequency DFAA situations will move westward from the eastern Ulansuhai Nur Lake, continuing to pose a risk of water quality deterioration in that region. These results could provide a basis for flood control, drought resistance and pollution control in the Hetao and other areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessCommunication
The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from Downscaled CMIP5 Models
Water 2019, 11(2), 259; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020259
Received: 27 December 2018 / Revised: 28 January 2019 / Accepted: 29 January 2019 / Published: 2 February 2019
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Abstract
After being repeatedly struck by droughts in the last few decades, water managers and stakeholders in the Southeast U.S. dread the future extremes that climate change might cause. In this study, the length of future dry periods is assessed using a sub-ensemble of [...] Read more.
After being repeatedly struck by droughts in the last few decades, water managers and stakeholders in the Southeast U.S. dread the future extremes that climate change might cause. In this study, the length of future dry periods is assessed using a sub-ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models, which are proven to perform well in precipitation estimations. The length of a dry spell with a twenty-year return period is estimated for the cold and warm seasons for two time periods; 2020–2059 and 2060–2099, and considering two emission scenarios: RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The estimates are then compared with historical dry spells and differences in length and geospatial distribution analyzed. Based on the findings of this paper, little change can be expected in dry spell length during the warm season. Greater changes are to be expected in the cold season in the southern half of Florida, where dry spells are expected to be up to twenty days shorter, while dry spells in Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee are predicted to be up to twenty days longer. The changes predicted by the models are positively associated with emission trajectory and future time period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Flooding Related Consequences of Climate Change on Canadian Cities and Flow Regulation Infrastructure
Water 2019, 11(1), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010063
Received: 26 October 2018 / Revised: 21 December 2018 / Accepted: 27 December 2018 / Published: 1 January 2019
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Abstract
This study discusses the flooding related consequences of climate change on most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI). The discussion is based on the aggregated results of historical and projected future flooding frequencies and flood timing as generated by Canada-wide hydrodynamic [...] Read more.
This study discusses the flooding related consequences of climate change on most populous Canadian cities and flow regulation infrastructure (FRI). The discussion is based on the aggregated results of historical and projected future flooding frequencies and flood timing as generated by Canada-wide hydrodynamic modelling in a previous study. Impact assessment on 100 most populous Canadian cities indicate that future flooding frequencies in some of the most populous cities such as Toronto and Montreal can be expected to increase from 100 (250) years to 15 (22) years by the end of the 21st century making these cities highest at risk to projected changes in flooding frequencies as a consequence of climate change. Overall 40–60% of the analyzed cities are found to be associated with future increases in flooding frequencies and associated increases in flood hazard and flood risk. The flooding related impacts of climate change on 1072 FRIs located across Canada are assessed both in terms of projected changes in future flooding frequencies and changes in flood timings. Results suggest that 40–50% of the FRIs especially those located in southern Ontario, western coastal regions, and northern regions of Canada can be expected to experience future increases in flooding frequencies. FRIs located in many of these regions are also projected to experience future changes in flood timing underlining that operating rules for those FRIs may need to be reassessed to make them resilient to changing climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
The Influence of Flow Projection Errors on Flood Hazard Estimates in Future Climate Conditions
Water 2019, 11(1), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010049
Received: 16 November 2018 / Revised: 13 December 2018 / Accepted: 18 December 2018 / Published: 29 December 2018
Cited by 1 | PDF Full-text (4940 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
The continuous simulation approach to assessing the impact of climate change on future flood hazards consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of the global climate model (GCM) driven by an assumed CO2 emission scenario, through the downscaling [...] Read more.
The continuous simulation approach to assessing the impact of climate change on future flood hazards consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of the global climate model (GCM) driven by an assumed CO2 emission scenario, through the downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, an estimation of flow using a hydrological model, and subsequent derivation of flood hazard maps with the help of a flow routing model. The procedure has been applied to the Biala Tarnowska catchment, Southern Poland. Future climate projections of rainfall and temperature are used as inputs to the precipitation-runoff model simulating flow in part of the catchment upstream of a modeled river reach. An application of a lumped-parameter emulator instead of a distributed flow routing model, MIKE11, substantially lowers the required computation times. A comparison of maximum inundation maps derived using both the flow routing model, MIKE11, and its lump-parameter emulator shows very small differences, which supports the feasibility of the approach. The relationship derived between maximum annual inundation areas and the upstream flow of the study can be used to assess the floodplain extent response to future climate changes. The analysis shows the large influence of the one-grid-storm error in climate projections on the return period of annual maximum inundation areas and their uncertainty bounds. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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Open AccessArticle
Future Changes in Flood Hazards across Canada under a Changing Climate
Water 2018, 10(10), 1441; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101441
Received: 4 September 2018 / Revised: 2 October 2018 / Accepted: 7 October 2018 / Published: 13 October 2018
Cited by 2 | PDF Full-text (5381 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow [...] Read more.
Climate change has induced considerable changes in the dynamics of key hydro-climatic variables across Canada, including floods. In this study, runoff projections made by 21 General Climate Models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to generate 25 km resolution streamflow estimates across Canada for historical (1961–2005) and future (2061–2100) time-periods. These estimates are used to calculate future projected changes in flood magnitudes and timings across Canada. Results obtained indicate that flood frequencies in the northernmost regions of Canada, and south-western Ontario can be expected to increase in the future. As an example, the historical 100-year return period events in these regions are expected to become 10–60 year return period events. On the other hand, northern prairies and north-central Ontario can be expected to experience decreases in flooding frequencies in future. The historical 100-year return period flood events in these regions are expected to become 160–200 year return period events in future. Furthermore, prairies, parts of Quebec, Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon territories can be expected to experience earlier snowmelt-driven floods in the future. The results from this study will help decision-makers to effectively manage and design municipal and civil infrastructure in Canada under a changing climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Floods and Droughts under Future Climate Scenarios)
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