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9 pages, 202 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources: Criteria for Research

by Franco Salerno

Water 2017, 9(10), 805; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9100805 - 19 Oct 2017

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 6281

Abstract

The Paris Agreement presents new fields of research related to the adaptation strategies to climate change. A challenge for future research consists in developing context-specific guidelines to support adaptation. This Special Issue on “Adaptation strategy to climate change for water resources” is born [...] Read more.

The Paris Agreement presents new fields of research related to the adaptation strategies to climate change. A challenge for future research consists in developing context-specific guidelines to support adaptation. This Special Issue on “Adaptation strategy to climate change for water resources” is born in this context. It contains 15 scientific studies facing a diversity of issues inherent to the adaptation strategies for water resources. This editorial analyses how the authors of this collection of papers decided to develop and present their research in order to identify criteria to contribute defining, in a near future, standardized approaches and practices for adaptation studies. Papers have been categorized in two major fields: “Studies for the development of adaptation scenarios” and “Studies for the development of adaptation solutions”. Papers belonging to both categories are generally found missing to treat the ‘uncertainty’ issues arising and the implementation of the proposed adaptation strategies. Studies investigating future adaptation scenarios are generally found to be unbalanced in favor of the assessment of future impacts on water resources and less towards the provision of adaptation scenarios. When these studies do not provide elements to manage the specific uncertainty related to the proposed adaptation solutions, at least exploring the uncertainty related to the climatic and impact scenarios is strongly recommended. Studies providing methodological and/or procedural examinations on adaptation solutions are recommended to suitably report the climatic, environmental, and social context for which the action has been developed. A reduction of uncertainty and an easier implementation of proposed measures could be induced from this. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

Research

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18 pages, 3103 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Climate Change Adaptation in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Catchment: Testing Managed Aquifer Recharge and Increased Surface Reservoir Capacity

by Nicolas Guyennon, Franco Salerno, Ivan Portoghese and Emanuele Romano

Water 2017, 9(9), 689; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090689 - 8 Sep 2017

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 5417

Abstract

Among different uses of freshwater, irrigation is the most impacting groundwater resource, leading to water table depletion and possible seawater intrusion. The unbalance between the availability of water resources and demand is currently exacerbated and could become worse in the near future in [...] Read more.

Among different uses of freshwater, irrigation is the most impacting groundwater resource, leading to water table depletion and possible seawater intrusion. The unbalance between the availability of water resources and demand is currently exacerbated and could become worse in the near future in accordance with climate change observations and scenarios provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this context, Increasing Maximum Capacity of the surface reservoir (IMC) and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) are adaptation measures that have the potential to enhance water supply systems resiliency. In this paper, a multiple-users and multiple-resources-Water Supply System (WSS) model is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of these two adaptation strategies in a context of overexploited groundwater under the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. The presented a case study that is located in the Puglia, a semi-arid region of South Italy characterized by a conspicuous water demand for irrigation. We observed that, although no significant long-term trend affects the proposed precipitation scenarios, the expected temperature increase highly impacts the WSS resources due to the associated increase of water demand for irrigation purposes. Under the RCP 4.5 the MAR scenario results are more effective than the IMC during long term wet periods (typically 5 years) and successfully compensates the impact on the groundwater resources. Differently, under RCP 8.5, due to more persistent dry periods, both adaptation scenarios fail and groundwater resource become exposed to massive sea water intrusion during the second half of the century. We conclude that the MAR scenario is a suitable adaptation strategy to face the expected future changes in climate, although mitigation actions to reduce green-house gases are strongly required. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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18 pages, 1249 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

by Marziali Laura, Gianni Tartari, Franco Salerno, Lucia Valsecchi, Clara Bravi, Erika Lorenzi, Pietro Genoni and Licia Guzzella

Water 2017, 9(9), 680; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090680 - 7 Sep 2017

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 6435

Abstract

Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on [...] Read more.

Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn) and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons) was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by I_geo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC) and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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22 pages, 901 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Stimulating Learning through Policy Experimentation: A Multi-Case Analysis of How Design Influences Policy Learning Outcomes in Experiments for Climate Adaptation

by Belinda McFadgen and Dave Huitema

Water 2017, 9(9), 648; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090648 - 30 Aug 2017

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 5175

Abstract

Learning from policy experimentation is a promising way to approach the “wicked problem” of climate adaptation, which is characterised by knowledge gaps and contested understandings of future risk. However, although the role of learning in shaping public policy is well understood, and experiments [...] Read more.

Learning from policy experimentation is a promising way to approach the “wicked problem” of climate adaptation, which is characterised by knowledge gaps and contested understandings of future risk. However, although the role of learning in shaping public policy is well understood, and experiments are expected to facilitate learning, little is known about how experiments produce learning, what types of learning, and how they can be designed to enhance learning effects. Using quantitative research methods, we explore how design choices influence the learning experiences of 173 participants in 18 policy experiments conducted in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2016. The experiments are divided into three “ideal types” that are expected to produce different levels and types of learning. The findings show that policy experiments produce cognitive and relational learning effects, but less normative learning, and experiment design influenced three of six measured dimensions of learning, especially the cognitive learning dimensions. This reveals a trade-off between designing for knowledge development and designing for normative or relational changes; choices that experiment designers should make in the context of their adaptation problem. Our findings also show the role leadership plays in building trust. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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25 pages, 4651 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Geospatial Approach for Identifying and Exploring Potential Natural Water Storage Sites

by Danika Holmes, Jamie McEvoy, Jean L. Dixon and Scott Payne

Water 2017, 9(8), 585; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9080585 - 8 Aug 2017

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 6081

Abstract

Across the globe, climate change is projected to affect the quantity, quality, and timing of freshwater availability. In western North America, there has been a shift toward earlier spring runoff and more winter precipitation as rain. This raises questions about the need for [...] Read more.

Across the globe, climate change is projected to affect the quantity, quality, and timing of freshwater availability. In western North America, there has been a shift toward earlier spring runoff and more winter precipitation as rain. This raises questions about the need for increased water storage to mitigate both floods and droughts. Some water managers have identified natural storage structures as valuable tools for increasing resiliency to these climate change impacts. However, identifying adequate sites and quantifying the storage potential of natural structures is a key challenge. This study addresses the need for a method for identifying and estimating floodplain water storage capacity in a manner that can be used by water planners through the development of a model that uses open-source geospatial data. This model was used to identify and estimate the storage capacity of a 0.33 km² floodplain segment in eastern Montana, USA. The result is a range of storage capacities under eight natural water storage conditions, ranging from 900 m³ for small floods to 321,300 m³ for large floods. Incorporating additional hydraulic inputs, stakeholder needs, and stakeholder perceptions of natural storage into this process can help address more complex questions about using natural storage structures as ecosystem-based climate change adaptation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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21 pages, 7882 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multi–Model Ensemble Approaches to Assessment of Effects of Local Climate Change on Water Resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China

by Min Luo, Fanhao Meng, Tie Liu, Yongchao Duan, Amaury Frankl, Alishir Kurban and Philippe De Maeyer

Water 2017, 9(8), 584; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9080584 - 5 Aug 2017

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 6860

Abstract

The effects of global climate change threaten the availability of water resources worldwide and modify their tempo-spatial pattern. Properly quantifying the possible effects of climate change on water resources under different hydrological models is a great challenge in ungauged alpine regions. By using [...] Read more.

The effects of global climate change threaten the availability of water resources worldwide and modify their tempo-spatial pattern. Properly quantifying the possible effects of climate change on water resources under different hydrological models is a great challenge in ungauged alpine regions. By using remote sensing data to support established models, this study aimed to reveal the effects of climate change using two models of hydrological processes including total water resources, peak flows, evapotranspiration, snowmelt and snow accumulation in the ungauged Hotan River Basin under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results revealed that stream flow was much more sensitive to temperature variation than precipitation change and increased by 0.9–10.0% according to MIKE SHE or 6.5–10.5% according to SWAT. Increased evapotranspiration was similar for both models with a range of 7.6–31.3%. The snow-covered area shrank from 32.5% to 11.9% between the elevations of 4200–6400 m, respectively, and snow accumulation increased when the elevation exceeded 6400 m above sea level (asl). The results also suggested that the fully distributed and semi-distributed structures of these two models strongly influenced the responses to climate change. The study proposes a practical approach to assess the climate change effect in ungauged regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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19 pages, 6152 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Drought Characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea Using Time Series SPI and SPEI: 1981–2100

by Sang-Hyun Lee, Seung-Hwan Yoo, Jin-Yong Choi and Seungjong Bae

Water 2017, 9(8), 579; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9080579 - 3 Aug 2017

Cited by 80 | Viewed by 8300

Abstract

North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration [...] Read more.

North Korea is a food-deficit nation in which climate change could have a significant impact on drought. We analyzed drought characteristics in the Hwanghae Plain, North Korea using both the multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1981 to 2100. The probability of non-exceedance for a one-month SPEI below −1.0 was only 1.1% in the spring season of 1995 but increased to 24.4% in 2085. The SPEI for a ten-year return period varied from −0.6 to −0.9 in 1995 and decreased to −1.18 in 2025. The results indicate that severe drought is more likely to occur in future as a result of climate change. The seasonal drought conditions were also significantly influenced by climate change. The largest decrease in the SPEI occurred in late spring and early summer, both of which are important for rice growth. Drought characteristics include severity, duration, and intensity. Therefore, we applied the time series of SPIs and SPEIs to the runs theory and found that the drought intensity identified by one-month SPEIs in 1995 was at a level of 1.21, which reached 1.39 in 2085, implying that climate change will intensify drought in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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17 pages, 7359 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Changes of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Highest-Latitude Region of China

by Peng Qi, Guangxin Zhang, Y. Jun Xu, Yanfeng Wu and Zongting Gao

Water 2017, 9(7), 493; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070493 - 5 Jul 2017

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 5288

Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is often used to make management decisions for crop irrigation scheduling and production. In this study, the spatial and temporal trends of ET₀ in China’s most northern province as well as the country’s largest agricultural region [...] Read more.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is often used to make management decisions for crop irrigation scheduling and production. In this study, the spatial and temporal trends of ET₀ in China’s most northern province as well as the country’s largest agricultural region were analyzed for the period from 1964 to 2013. ET₀ was calculated with the Penman-Monteith of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations irrigation and drainage paper NO.56 (FAO-56) using climatic data collected from 27 stations. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) was used for the spatial interpolation of the estimated ET₀. A Modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) was applied to test the spatiotemporal trends of ET₀, while Pearson’s correlation coefficient and cross-wavelet analysis were employed to assess the factors affecting the spatiotemporal variability at different elevations. The results from this study showed a clear decreasing trend for annual ET₀ from the low elevation plain area to the high elevation mountainous area. Over the past five decades, ET₀ in Heilongjiang Province decreased in all seasons, except for the winter months, during which a steady increase in temperature was found. Elevation played an important role in estimating ET₀ in this higher-latitude region, while relative humidity was the most relevant meteorological factor that affected the spatiotemporal variation of ET₀ in the province. Overall, the findings from the study suggest that winter ET₀ in a high altitude region will continue to increase in the future as climate change persists, which could worsen spring droughts and irrigation management for semi-arid areas in the province. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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15 pages, 3269 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

by Pankaj Kumar, Yoshifumi Masago, Binaya Kumar Mishra, Shokhrukh Jalilov, Ammar Rafiei Emam, Mohamed Kefi and Kensuke Fukushi

Water 2017, 9(6), 410; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060410 - 8 Jun 2017

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 10871

Abstract

Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung [...] Read more.

Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate (NO₃), the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO₃, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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19 pages, 8937 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Relationship to Dry/Wet Conditions Based on the Aridity Index in the Songnen Grassland, Northeast China

by Qiyun Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Caiyun Sun, Enliang Guo, Feng Zhang and Mengmeng Wang

Water 2017, 9(5), 316; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9050316 - 29 Apr 2017

Cited by 24 | Viewed by 5695

Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in regional dry/wet conditions. Based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United (FAO) Penman-Monteith method and daily climate variables, ET0 was calculated for 21 stations in and around the Songnen Grassland, northeast China, during [...] Read more.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in regional dry/wet conditions. Based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United (FAO) Penman-Monteith method and daily climate variables, ET0 was calculated for 21 stations in and around the Songnen Grassland, northeast China, during 1960–2014. The temporal and spatial variations of ET0 and precipitation (P) were analyzed in the annual, seasonal, and growing season (from April to October) time series using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression coupled with a break trend analysis. A sensitivity analysis was used to detect the key climate parameter contributing to ET0 change. By linear regression analysis on the relationship between ET0, P, and the aridity index (AI), the role of ET0 in determining regional wet/dry conditions was analyzed. Results show a higher ET0 in the southwest and a lower ET0 in the northeast, but P was opposite to that of ET0. Evident decreasing trends of ET0 in the annual, seasonal, and growing season time series were detected in almost the entire region by the trend analysis methods. For the entire region, the decreasing trend of ET0 can be linked to the relative humidity and maximum air temperature. The positive contribution of increasing temperature to ET0 was offset by the effect of the significantly decreasing relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration at the 0.05 level during 1960–2014. In addition, the value of ET0 was higher in drought years and lower in wet years. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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16 pages, 16402 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sustainable Measures for Mitigation of Flooding Hazards: A Case Study in Shanghai, China

by Yao Yuan, Ye-Shuang Xu and Arul Arulrajah

Water 2017, 9(5), 310; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9050310 - 28 Apr 2017

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 7858

Abstract

Global warming induces temperature variations and sea level changes for a long period of time. Many coastal cities around the world have experienced the harmful consequences of sea level changes and temperature variations. The city of Shanghai in China also suffers from the [...] Read more.

Global warming induces temperature variations and sea level changes for a long period of time. Many coastal cities around the world have experienced the harmful consequences of sea level changes and temperature variations. The city of Shanghai in China also suffers from the serious consequences of these two climatic factors. The geological and climatic conditions of Shanghai make it sensitive to flooding risks during heavy rainfall events. This paper analyses the conditions of sea level changes, temperature variations, and heavy rainfall events in Shanghai. Correspondingly, eustatic sea level change, tectonic movement of the continent, and land subsidence in Shanghai have effects on sea level changes. Correlation analysis indicates extraordinary short duration rainfall events have a relationship with temperature variations due to global warming. Moreover, the number of extraordinary torrential rainfall events also has a correlation with sea level changes. Pluvial flooding and potential damage to coastal structures are more likely to have serious effects as the number of flooding hazard events due to global warming and sea level changes increases. This study also established that to efficiently protect the environment, control economic losses, and prevent potential hazards, extra countermeasures including monitoring, forecasting, and engineering technology treatment should be adopted. Monitoring measurements combined with a database system on a website was found to be useful for forecasting and simulating flooding hazards. For systematic sustainable urban water system management, appropriate treatment technologies, such as sustainable urban water system, which can control and manage water quantity and quality, namely “the Sponge City”, should also be considered. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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22 pages, 3779 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Adaptation of Cascade Hydropower Station Scheduling on A Headwater Stream of the Yangtze River under Changing Climate Conditions

by Ming Yang Zhai, Qian Guo Lin, Guo He Huang, Le Zhu, Kai An, Gong Chen Li and Yue Fei Huang

Water 2017, 9(4), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9040293 - 22 Apr 2017

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 6034

Abstract

Cascade hydropower stations are effective in water resource utilization, regional water allocation, and flood risk management. Under changing climate conditions, water resources would experience complex temporal and spatial changes, which may lead to various issues relating to flood control and water resource management, [...] Read more.

Cascade hydropower stations are effective in water resource utilization, regional water allocation, and flood risk management. Under changing climate conditions, water resources would experience complex temporal and spatial changes, which may lead to various issues relating to flood control and water resource management, and challenge the existing optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower stations. It is thus important to conduct a study on cascade hydropower station scheduling under changing climate conditions. In this study, the Jinsha River rainfall–discharge statistical model is developed based on the statistical relationship between meteorological and runoff indicators. Validation results indicate that the developed model is capable of generating satisfactory simulation results and thus can be used for future Jinsha River runoff projection under climate change. Meanwhile, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) is run to project future rainfall in the Jinsha River basin under two General Circulation Models (ECHAM5 and HadAM3P), two scenarios (A1B and B2), and four periods (1961–1990, 1991–2020, 2021–2050, and 2051–2099). The regional climate modeling data are analyzed and then fed into the Jinsha hydrological model to analyze the trends of future discharge at Xiangjiaba Hydro Station. Adaptive scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower stations are discussed based on the future inflow trend analysis and current flood scheduling mode. It is suggested that cascade hydropower stations could be operated at flood limited water level (FLWL) during 2021–2099. In addition, the impoundment of cascade hydropower stations should be properly delayed during the post-flood season in response to the possible occurrence of increased and extended inflow in wet seasons. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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19 pages, 4639 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

by Lei Ren, Lian-qing Xue, Yuan-hong Liu, Jia Shi, Qiang Han and Peng-fei Yi

Water 2017, 9(4), 258; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9040258 - 5 Apr 2017

Cited by 26 | Viewed by 5778

Abstract

Climate change in Northwest China could lead to the change of the hydrological cycle and water resources. This paper assessed the influence of climate change on runoff in the Manas River basin as follows. First, the temporal trends and abrupt change points of [...] Read more.

Climate change in Northwest China could lead to the change of the hydrological cycle and water resources. This paper assessed the influence of climate change on runoff in the Manas River basin as follows. First, the temporal trends and abrupt change points of runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature in yearly scale during the period of 1961–2015 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Then the correlation between runoff and climatic variables was characterized in a monthly, seasonal and yearly scale using the partial correlation method. Furthermore, three global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were bias-corrected using Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Functions (EDCDF) method to reveal the future climate change during the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961–2000. The influence of climate change on runoff was studied by simulating the runoff with the GCMs using a modified TOPMODEL considering the future snowmelt during the period from 2021 to 2060. The results showed that the runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature all presented an increasing trend in yearly scale during the period of 1961–2015, and their abrupt change points were at a similar time; the runoff series was more strongly related to temperature than to precipitation in the spring, autumn and yearly scales, and the opposite was true in winter. All GCMs projected precipitation and temperature, and the runoff simulated with these GCMs were predicted to increase in the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961–2000. These findings provide valuable information for assessing the influence of climate change on water resources in the Manas River basin, and references for water management in such regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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23 pages, 6830 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

by Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini, Md Rowshon Kamal, Mohd Amin Bin Mohd Soom, Mohd Syazwan Faisal bin Mohd, Ahmad Fikri Bin Abdullah and Lai Sai Hin

Water 2017, 9(3), 226; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030226 - 20 Mar 2017

Cited by 37 | Viewed by 10380

Abstract

Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the [...] Read more.

Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc.) at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R², Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (t_max and t_min) in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5). Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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21 pages, 3486 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Farm Typology in the Berambadi Watershed (India): Farming Systems Are Determined by Farm Size and Access to Groundwater

by Marion Robert, Alban Thomas, Muddu Sekhar, Shrinivas Badiger, Laurent Ruiz, Magali Willaume, Delphine Leenhardt and Jacques-Eric Bergez

Water 2017, 9(1), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010051 - 13 Jan 2017

Cited by 40 | Viewed by 9164

Abstract

Farmers’ production decisions and agricultural practices directly and indirectly influence the quantity and quality of natural resources, some being depleted common resources such as groundwater. Representing farming systems while accounting for their flexibility is needed to evaluate targeted, regional water management policies. Farmers’ [...] Read more.

Farmers’ production decisions and agricultural practices directly and indirectly influence the quantity and quality of natural resources, some being depleted common resources such as groundwater. Representing farming systems while accounting for their flexibility is needed to evaluate targeted, regional water management policies. Farmers’ decisions regarding investing in irrigation and adopting cropping systems are inherently dynamic and must adapt to changes in climate and agronomic, economic and social, and institutional, conditions. To represent this diversity, we developed a typology of Indian farmers from a survey of 684 farms in Berambadi, an agricultural watershed in southern India (state of Karnataka). The survey provided information on farm structure, the cropping system and farm practices, water management for irrigation, and economic performances of the farm. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis (Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering) were used to analyze relationships between observed factors and establish the farm typology. We identified three main types of farms: (1) large diversified and productivist farms; (2) small and marginal rainfed farms, and (3) small irrigated marketing farms. This typology represents the heterogeneity of farms in the Berambadi watershed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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13 pages, 4213 KiB

Open AccessCase Report

Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

by Tianwa Zhou, Pute Wu, Shikun Sun, Xiaolei Li, Yubao Wang and Xiaobo Luan

Water 2017, 9(6), 429; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060429 - 13 Jun 2017

Cited by 52 | Viewed by 6783

Abstract

Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR) would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water [...] Read more.

Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR) would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model) to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID) in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀), which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) and crop water requirement (CWR). CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET₀ would would increase by 4% to 7%; ET_c and CWR have the same trend as ET₀, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 10⁶ to 242 × 10⁶ m³ by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 10⁶ to 456 × 10⁶ m³ by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources)

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