Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 October 2024 | Viewed by 12699

Special Issue Editors


E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
Interests: drought risk analysis; ecological drought; drought propagation

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China
Interests: hydrology; precipitation; climate

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Droughts pose significant challenges to water resource management and can lead to severe environmental, social, and economic impacts. With climate change and increasing human pressure on water resources, the frequency and intensity of drought events are expected to rise. Therefore, it is crucial to advance our understanding and methodologies for drought monitoring and risk assessment to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

We are pleased to announce a Special Issue on “Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment”, which aims to explore the latest advances in the methodologies, technologies, and applications in the field. We invite contributions that present innovative approaches, including the use of remote sensing, modeling, in situ measurements, and other emerging techniques to better understand and address the challenges posed by drought events.

Topics of interest for this Special Issue include, but are not limited to, the following:

  1. Advances in drought monitoring techniques and tools, including remote sensing, in situ measurements, and modeling;
  2. Development and application of indicators and indices for drought characterization, monitoring, and early warning;
  3. Integration of hydrological, meteorological, socioeconomic, and ecological data for comprehensive drought risk assessment;
  4. Assessment of drought impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human systems;
  5. Evaluation of drought vulnerability and resilience on various spatial and temporal scales;
  6. Formulation and execution of drought management plans, considering climate adaptation and mitigation measures for water resources and ecosystem preservation;
  7. Exploration of the role of climate change and human activities in altering drought patterns and risks.

We encourage the submission of original research articles, reviews, case studies, and technical notes that will contribute to the advancement of knowledge in the field of drought monitoring and risk assessment, with a balanced focus on different aspects of drought and its implications for ecosystems and society.

Prof. Dr. Yanping Qu
Dr. Xuejun Zhang
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • drought monitoring
  • risk assessment
  • climate change adaptation
  • drought mitigation strategies
  • remote sensing
  • water resource management
  • vulnerability and resilience

Published Papers (13 papers)

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Research

18 pages, 11150 KiB  
Article
Temporal and Spatial Variations in Drought and Its Impact on Agriculture in China
by Wen Liu and Yuqing Zhang
Water 2024, 16(12), 1713; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16121713 - 16 Jun 2024
Viewed by 324
Abstract
Drought, as a widespread natural calamity, leads to the most severe agricultural losses among all such disasters. Alterations in the yield of major global agricultural products are pivotal factors influencing food prices, food security, and land use decisions. China’s rapidly expanding demand for [...] Read more.
Drought, as a widespread natural calamity, leads to the most severe agricultural losses among all such disasters. Alterations in the yield of major global agricultural products are pivotal factors influencing food prices, food security, and land use decisions. China’s rapidly expanding demand for sustenance will persist over the forthcoming decades, emphasizing the critical need for an accurate assessment of drought’s impact on food production. Consequently, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the drought risk in China and its repercussions on agricultural output. Additionally, we delved into the underlying factors driving changes in yield for three primary grain crops (wheat, corn, and rice), which hold particular relevance for shaping effective strategies to mitigate future drought challenges. The findings divulge that both the number of drought months (DM) and the drought magnitude index (DMI) have displayed an upward trajectory over 60 years with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. The overall severity of meteorological drought has escalated across China, and it is particularly evident in regions such as the southwest and central parts of the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the northwestern middle region, and the Xinjiang region. Conversely, there has been some relief from drought conditions in southern China and the Yangtze River Delta. Shifts in the total grain output (TGO) during this period were compared: it underwent three stages, namely “fluctuating growth” (1961–1999), then a “sharp decline” (2000–2003), followed by “stable growth” (2004–2018). Similarly, changes in the grain planting area (GPA) experienced two stages, “continuous reduction” (1961–2003) succeeded by “stable growth” (2004–2018), while maintaining an upward trend for grain yield per unit area (GY) throughout. Furthermore, it was revealed that the drought grade serves as a significant constraint on continuous expansion within China’s grain output—where the drought damage rate’s influence on the TGO outweighs that from the GY. Our research outcomes play an instrumental role in deepening our comprehension regarding how drought impacts agricultural production within China while furnishing the scientific groundwork to devise efficacious policies addressing these challenges. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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21 pages, 11018 KiB  
Article
Spring Meteorological Drought over East Asia and Its Associations with Large-Scale Climate Variations
by Meng Gao, Ruijun Ge and Yueqi Wang
Water 2024, 16(11), 1508; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111508 - 24 May 2024
Viewed by 471
Abstract
East Asia is a region that is highly vulnerable to drought disasters during the spring season, as this period is critical for planting, germinating, and growing staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice. The climate in East Asia is significantly influenced by [...] Read more.
East Asia is a region that is highly vulnerable to drought disasters during the spring season, as this period is critical for planting, germinating, and growing staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice. The climate in East Asia is significantly influenced by three large-scale climate variations: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, the spring meteorological drought was quantified using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for March, April, and May. Initially, coupled climate networks were established for two climate variables: sea surface temperature (SST) and SPEI. The directed links from SST to SPEI were determined based on the Granger causality test. These coupled climate networks revealed the associations between climate variations and meteorological droughts, indicating that semi-arid areas are more sensitive to these climate variations. In the spring, PDO and ENSO do not cause extreme wetness or dryness in East Asia, whereas IOD does. The remote impacts of these climate variations on SPEI can be partially explained by atmospheric circulations, where the combined effects of air temperatures, winds, and air pressure fields determine the wet/dry conditions in East Asia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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23 pages, 8155 KiB  
Article
Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil
by Ivanildo Batista da Silva Júnior, Lidiane da Silva Araújo, Tatijana Stosic, Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes and Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva
Water 2024, 16(11), 1490; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111490 - 23 May 2024
Viewed by 518
Abstract
Drought is the most complex natural hazard that can occur over large spatial scales and during long time periods. It affects more people than any other natural hazard, particularly in areas with a dry climate, such as the semiarid region of the Brazilian [...] Read more.
Drought is the most complex natural hazard that can occur over large spatial scales and during long time periods. It affects more people than any other natural hazard, particularly in areas with a dry climate, such as the semiarid region of the Brazilian Northeast (NEB), which is the world’s most populated dry area. In this work, we analyzed trends and the spatial distribution of drought characteristics (frequency, affected area, and intensity) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on annual (SPI-12) and seasonal (SPI-3) scales. The study used monthly precipitation data recorded between 1962 and 2012 at 133 meteorological stations in Pernambuco State, Brazil, which is located in the eastern part of the NEB and has more than 80% of its territory characterized by a semiarid climate. The regions of Sertão, Agreste, and Zona da Mata of Pernambuco were considered for comparison. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect the trend and determine its magnitude, respectively. The results indicated that annual droughts in the state of Pernambuco became more frequent from the 1990s onwards, with summer having the greatest spatial coverage, followed by winter, autumn, and spring. Sertão presented a greater number of stations with a significant positive trend in drought frequency. Regarding the drought-affected area, global events occurred in a greater number of years on an annual scale and during the summer. Trend analysis pointed to an increase in areas with drought events on both scales. As for the drought intensity, the entire state of Pernambuco experienced drought events with high intensity during the autumn. The relationship between drought characteristics indicated an increase in the affected area as the result of an increase in drought intensity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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18 pages, 2236 KiB  
Article
Development and Applicability Evaluation of Damage Scale Analysis Techniques for Agricultural Drought
by Youngseok Song, Jingul Joo, Hayong Kim and Moojong Park
Water 2024, 16(10), 1342; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16101342 - 8 May 2024
Viewed by 594
Abstract
In recent years, the intensity and frequency of droughts have been increasing with the advent of the climate crisis. Agricultural droughts have a significant economic and social impact. Agricultural drought is not only a natural disaster but also leads to food security threats [...] Read more.
In recent years, the intensity and frequency of droughts have been increasing with the advent of the climate crisis. Agricultural droughts have a significant economic and social impact. Agricultural drought is not only a natural disaster but also leads to food security threats and reduced economic activities, such as decreased productivity. Therefore, it is very important to specify the scale of agricultural drought and quantitatively estimate the economic damage. In this study, we developed an analytical methodology to quantitatively assess the economic damage of agricultural drought and estimated the damage of agricultural drought in 2018 and 2019 for the Republic of Korea. The 2018 agricultural drought was estimated to have caused USD 4.438 million in damage cost and USD 5.180 million in recovery cost. The 2019 drought was less damaging than the previous year, with an estimated damage cost of USD 286,000 and recovery costs of USD 218,000. The results suggest that the economic impact of agricultural drought varies by region depending on the frequency and intensity of the drought and confirm the importance of regional strategies for effective drought management and response. The impacts of agricultural drought go beyond short-term agricultural losses and lead to long-term economic burdens. Therefore, the results of this study are expected to be used as a basis for understanding the impacts of agricultural drought on national economies and for developing policies and strategies to minimize impacts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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17 pages, 4630 KiB  
Article
Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Based on the TVDI in Henan Province, China
by Yanbin Li, Xin Wang, Fei Wang, Kai Feng, Hongxing Li, Yuhang Han and Shaodan Chen
Water 2024, 16(7), 1010; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16071010 - 30 Mar 2024
Viewed by 826
Abstract
As a major grain-producing province in China’s Central Plains, Henan Province is severely impacted by drought, making the study of agricultural drought characteristics in the region crucial. Theil–Sen (Sen) trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (M-K) test and the Hurst index method were used to [...] Read more.
As a major grain-producing province in China’s Central Plains, Henan Province is severely impacted by drought, making the study of agricultural drought characteristics in the region crucial. Theil–Sen (Sen) trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (M-K) test and the Hurst index method were used to systematically analyze the spatial variation characteristics of agricultural drought based on the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). The results show that: (1) The drought occurs in central, northwestern and southern Henan on an annual scale. The drought situation will continue to increase in northern, eastern northeastern and central Henan. (2) The drought in spring, summer and winter showed an increasing trend, but the opposite trend was observed in autumn. The increasing trend of drought in each season is mainly distributed in northern, central and eastern Henan. (3) The drought in January, February, April, July, September and December showed an increasing trend, while the drought in the other 6 months showed a decreasing trend. The increase in drought during July and August was not pronounced, while the drought situation in September remained largely unchanged. The distribution of drought across the other months exhibited varying patterns across different regions. Overall, the drought trend in Henan Province is on the rise, displaying distinct seasonal and regional patterns in its temporal and spatial distribution. The results can provide a reference for Henan Province to formulate effective measures of drought resistance and disaster reduction to ensure grain production. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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21 pages, 7500 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Agricultural Drought Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin Based on Three-Dimensional Recognition
by Zezhong Zhang, Hengzhi Guo, Kai Feng, Fei Wang, Weijie Zhang and Jian Liu
Water 2024, 16(3), 440; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030440 - 29 Jan 2024
Viewed by 965
Abstract
Agricultural drought events have become more frequent in the Inner Mongolia inland river basin in recent years, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and development rules can be accurately and comprehensively understood using the three-dimensional identification method. In this paper, standardized soil moisture index [...] Read more.
Agricultural drought events have become more frequent in the Inner Mongolia inland river basin in recent years, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and development rules can be accurately and comprehensively understood using the three-dimensional identification method. In this paper, standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) was used to characterize agricultural drought, and modified Mann–Kendall trend test (MMK) and 3D recognition of drought events were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural drought events in this basin and reveal the drought development law. The relationships between drought and temperature (T), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), and humidity (H) were analyzed using a cross-wavelet method. The results are as follows: (1) When the time scale of agricultural drought was short (monthly scale), the alternations of dry and wet were frequent, but the SSMI index of all scales showed a downward trend; (2) The spatial distribution characteristics of drought change trend in four seasons were similar, but the area with a significant downward trend of drought in spring was the largest, and the area of high frequency region was also the largest, and the drought trend was the most obvious; (3) The most serious agricultural drought event occurred from October 2000 to May 2002, and reached its maximum value in September 2001 (drought area and drought severity of 2.26 × 105 km2 and 3.61 × 105 months·km2, respectively), which mainly experienced five processes—drought onset–intensification–decay–re-intensification–termination—and the migration path of the drought center showed the characteristics of southwest–northeast transmission; (4) All the four meteorological factors were correlated with SSMI, and P had a greater impact on SSMI. This article aims to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural drought events in the Inner Mongolia inland river basin, and provide a new way to accurately evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of drought. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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20 pages, 6260 KiB  
Article
Improved Agricultural Drought Monitoring with an Integrated Drought Condition Index in Xinjiang, China
by Haixia Li, Yuanyuan Yin, Jing Zhou and Fuxing Li
Water 2024, 16(2), 325; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16020325 - 18 Jan 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1092
Abstract
Drought is a natural disaster with severe global agricultural and economic impacts. Accurate drought indices are needed for improved assessment and monitoring; however, most existing drought indices poorly represent agricultural drought due to complex interactions among meteorological factors, crop and soil conditions. Here, [...] Read more.
Drought is a natural disaster with severe global agricultural and economic impacts. Accurate drought indices are needed for improved assessment and monitoring; however, most existing drought indices poorly represent agricultural drought due to complex interactions among meteorological factors, crop and soil conditions. Here, we compute an integrated drought condition index (IDCI) based on the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI3), vegetation cover index (VCI) and soil moisture condition index (SMCI). We apply the IDCI to monitoring agricultural drought in Xinjiang, China. After regional evaluations with soil moisture, precipitation and air temperature observations, as well as with the scaled crop yields index, the IDCI was used to describe spatiotemporal changes in regional drought in Xinjiang during 2000–2018, revealing adverse impacts on crop yield (beet, wheat and vegetables). The IDCI is strongly correlated with observed soil moisture and performs better than SMCI, VCI or SPEI3, demonstrating that the IDCI is suitable for agricultural drought monitoring. The most severe drought occurred in the spring to autumn of 2008. Droughts before 2008 were more serious than those after 2008, in terms of both severity and frequency. Droughts in northern, southern and eastern Xinjiang, as well as in the Tianshan Mountains, were generally increasing before 2008 and then weakened after 2008. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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16 pages, 9840 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Variation in the Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region during 1961–2023
by Wupeng Du, Zhixin Hao, Mengxin Bai, Liang Zhang, Chengpeng Zhang, Zirui Wang and Pei Xing
Water 2023, 15(24), 4230; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15244230 - 8 Dec 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1011
Abstract
It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of meteorological drought in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region to improve the accuracy of agriculture and water resource monitoring and management. In this study, using instrumental observation data from 85 meteorological stations in the BTH region during [...] Read more.
It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of meteorological drought in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region to improve the accuracy of agriculture and water resource monitoring and management. In this study, using instrumental observation data from 85 meteorological stations in the BTH region during 1961–2023 derived from the National Meteorological Information Center, we first calculated the meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the MCI. In the BTH region, the MCI intensity from May to June was the most severe in the intraseasonal variation. The trend of the decreasing drought intensity in May–June has occurred for the past 60 years. The southern region in the BTH region was more likely to experience droughts. Next, the spatial patterns of the top two EOF modes of the May–June MCI were depicted. The primary spatial pattern of the BTH, which was characterized by consistent changes in the MCI throughout the entire BTH region, could be represented by the first mode’s R2 of 69.01%. Then, we compared the spatial pattern of the MCI intensity under different return periods. Using the May–June MCI of 1961–2023, the drought intensity gradually increased from northwest to southeast for the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. However, the drought intensity decreased and then increased from northwest to southeast based on the 1991–2023 MCI. Notably, a 20-year return period of severe drought affected Beijing and northern Hebei in 2023. Finally, we discussed the linkages of drought in the BTH region and atmospheric circulation/sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which were calculated using the Pearson correlation coefficient and wavelet coherence. We suggest that the MCI variations in the BTH region may be related to the SST anomalies of the Indian Ocean in 1961–1990 and the Pacific Ocean in 1991–2023, respectively. The abovementioned studies have enlightened us to focus on predicting the Pacific SST for drought, which will facilitate agricultural production and water resource management in the BTH region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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27 pages, 13245 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Evolution and Copula-Based Multivariable Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Considering the Spatiotemporal Variability in Northwestern China
by Weijie Zhang, Kai Feng, Fei Wang, Wenjun Wang, Zezhong Zhang, Yingying Wang and Shengzhi Huang
Water 2023, 15(21), 3861; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213861 - 6 Nov 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1044
Abstract
Meteorological drought is a continuous spatiotemporal phenomenon that poses a serious threat to water resource security. Dynamic evolution and multivariable frequency analysis of meteorological drought are important for effective drought mitigation and risk management. Therefore, this study aims to analyze meteorological drought events [...] Read more.
Meteorological drought is a continuous spatiotemporal phenomenon that poses a serious threat to water resource security. Dynamic evolution and multivariable frequency analysis of meteorological drought are important for effective drought mitigation and risk management. Therefore, this study aims to analyze meteorological drought events in northwestern China between 1960 and 2018 based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) through a three-dimensional identification method. This study investigates the meteorological drought dynamic evolution on different time and space scales and evaluates the frequency analysis considering the spatiotemporal variability based on Copula. The results show that SPEI presents an upward trend in Northwestern China. A trend towards increased humidity is observed in arid regions, contrasted by a trend towards aridification in semi-arid and semi-humid areas, indicating that the spatial distribution of drought in the study area tends towards homogenization. The possibility of high-intensity drought events occurring in the same area was relatively low, whereas low-intensity drought events were frequent. Additionally, this study analyzes the dynamic migration process of individual drought events from a three-dimensional perspective. Neglecting any one drought variable could significantly underestimate the occurring probability of severe drought events. Therefore, a multivariable frequency analysis considering the spatiotemporal variability plays a crucial role in the formulation of drought prevention and mitigation strategies, as well as drought forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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20 pages, 8840 KiB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Contribution of Agricultural Drought in Daling River Basin: A VIC Model-Based Soil Moisture Simulation and SMAPI Evaluation
by Mei Ding, Juan Lv, Yanping Qu and Tianliang Jiang
Water 2023, 15(21), 3809; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213809 - 31 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1092
Abstract
Soil moisture is a crucial factor that directly influences agricultural drought. As such, investigating drought-monitoring methods utilizing soil moisture data is of significant importance for accurately evaluating and predicting agricultural drought. However, the current soil moisture data for the Daling River Basin is [...] Read more.
Soil moisture is a crucial factor that directly influences agricultural drought. As such, investigating drought-monitoring methods utilizing soil moisture data is of significant importance for accurately evaluating and predicting agricultural drought. However, the current soil moisture data for the Daling River Basin is insufficient. Therefore, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model was utilized to simulate soil moisture in the Daling River Basin. The simulated data were then analyzed in conjunction with the standardized moisture anomaly index (SMAPI) to analyze and evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of agricultural drought in the Darling River Basin. The results indicate that the frequency of drought occurrence in the basin follows a seasonal pattern of winter > spring > autumn > summer. Between 1981 and 2019, 24 out of 39 years experienced slight or greater drought, 15 years experienced moderate or more severe drought, and 4 years experienced severe drought. Drought conditions have become exceptionally severe in the 21st century. Specifically, the frequency of drought occurrence from 2001 to 2019 was nearly 10 times higher compared to the period from 1981 to 2000. The droughts were most severe in the southeast and southwest of the Daling River Basin, while the northeast and northwest experienced relatively mild drought. Agricultural drought is influenced by numerous complex factors. The contribution of climate change (CC) and other factors (OF) to agricultural drought was quantified by using a partial derivative under six different scenarios. Results showed that SMAPI was positively correlated with precipitation and solar radiation, while negatively correlated with temperature. From 1981 to 2000, SMAPI exhibited an increasing trend that accounted for 61.66% of variability, while a decreasing trend accounted for 38.34%. From 2001 to 2019, SMAPI exhibited a significant decreasing trend that accounted for 93.53% of the variability, while the increasing trend only accounted for 6.47%. CC was the dominant factor in most of the areas with increased SMAPI. OF was the main controlling factor for areas with decreased SMAPI. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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17 pages, 26995 KiB  
Article
Lag Time and Cumulative Effects of Climate Factors on Drought in North China Plain
by Zezhong Zhang, Zipeng Wang, Hexin Lai, Fei Wang, Yanbin Li, Kai Feng, Qingqing Qi and Danyang Di
Water 2023, 15(19), 3428; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15193428 - 29 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1035
Abstract
The growing concern surrounding climate change has gradually drawn attention to the influence of climate factors on drought occurrence. In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of drought and reasonably utilize water resources, the vegetation health index (VHI) was used to characterize drought [...] Read more.
The growing concern surrounding climate change has gradually drawn attention to the influence of climate factors on drought occurrence. In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of drought and reasonably utilize water resources, the vegetation health index (VHI) was used to characterize drought in North China Plain (NCP) in this study. Furthermore, six climate factors: air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), specific humidity (SH), soil moisture (SM), and soil temperature (ST) were selected. The pole symmetric mode decomposition (PSMD) and improved gridded trend test (IGT) were used to analyze the spatial–temporal characteristics of drought and climate factors in NCP from 1982 to 2020. By calculating the cumulative climatic factors of 0 months, 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months, the correlation between drought and the climatic factors with different cumulative scales was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) from 1982 to 2020, the drought in NCP showed a downward trend and the climate factors showed an upward trend; (2) with the increase in AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST, VHI showed an upward trend, and SM showed the strongest correlation with VHI; (3) the optimal cumulative lag time (CLT) for AT, P, ET, SH, SM, and ST were 1.67 months, 1.48 months, 1.95 months, 1.69 months, 0.89 months, and 1.81 months, respectively; and (4) AT was the main driving factor of drought in NCP. This study contributes to the early warning and prediction of drought events, providing a scientific basis for water management authorities in drought management and decision making, and mitigating the negative impacts of drought on socio-economic aspects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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12 pages, 2681 KiB  
Article
A Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent Using SPEI-Based Severity-Area-Frequency Curves and Reanalysis Data
by Nunziarita Palazzolo, David J. Peres, Brunella Bonaccorso and Antonino Cancelliere
Water 2023, 15(17), 3141; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173141 - 1 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1214
Abstract
Assessing and monitoring the spatial extent of drought is of key importance to forecasting the future evolution of drought conditions and taking timely preventive and mitigation measures. A commonly used approach in regional drought analysis involves spatially interpolating meteorological variables (e.g., rainfall depth [...] Read more.
Assessing and monitoring the spatial extent of drought is of key importance to forecasting the future evolution of drought conditions and taking timely preventive and mitigation measures. A commonly used approach in regional drought analysis involves spatially interpolating meteorological variables (e.g., rainfall depth during specific time intervals, deviation from long-term average rainfall) or drought indices (e.g., Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) computed at specific locations. While plotting a drought descriptor against the corresponding percentage of affected areas helps visualize the historical extent of a drought, this approach falls short of providing a probabilistic characterization of the severity of spatial drought conditions. That can be overcome by identifying drought Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves over a region, which establishes a link between drought features with a chosen probability of recurrence (or return period) and the corresponding proportion of the area experiencing those drought conditions. While inferential analyses can be used to estimate these curves, analytical approaches offer a better understanding of the main statistical features that drive the spatial evolution of droughts. In this research, a technique is introduced to mathematically describe the Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves, aiming to probabilistically understand the correlation between drought severity, measured through the SPEI index, and the proportion of the affected region. This approach enables the determination of the area’s extent where SPEI values fall below a specific threshold, thus calculating the likelihood of observing SAF curves that exceed the observed one. The methodology is tested using data from the ERA5-Land reanalysis project, specifically studying the drought occurrences on Sicily Island, Italy, from 1950 to the present. Overall, findings highlight the improvements of incorporating the spatial interdependence of the assessed drought severity variable, offering a significant enhancement compared to the traditional approach for SAF curve derivation. Moreover, they validate the suitability of reanalysis data for regional drought analysis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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24 pages, 12917 KiB  
Article
Drought Hazard Analysis in the Jilin Province Based on a Three-Dimensional Copula Method
by Zhaojun Hou, Beibei Wang, Yichen Zhang, Jiquan Zhang and Dan Zhu
Water 2023, 15(15), 2775; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152775 - 31 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1093
Abstract
Based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at 23 stations in the Jilin Province, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated. Based on run theory and combined with previous research in Jilin Province, we redefine the drought threshold, with three characteristics, that [...] Read more.
Based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at 23 stations in the Jilin Province, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated. Based on run theory and combined with previous research in Jilin Province, we redefine the drought threshold, with three characteristics, that is, drought duration, intensity, and severity, were identified and extracted. Two- and three-dimensional copula functions were selected to fit and combine drought variables to calculate the joint recurrence period. In order to make the alternative copula model more complete, 25 representative copula functions are selected for the first time to construct the Joint probability distribution function. The Mann–Kendall test was used to examine abrupt changes in Meihekou County. SPEI trends and the joint cumulative probability of drought variables in the Changbai area were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the SPEI in the Meihekou area was unstable around 2000 and 2010, with abrupt change points; (2) the trend of the SPEI in the Changbai Mountains area indicates that the drought occurrence is similar at various timescales; the drought range and duration increase with increasing timescale; and (3) the correlation between the three drought variables is strong and the fit is good. The results of two- and three-dimensional joint recurrence period calculations are similar, with a high probability of recurrence within three years. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Monitoring and Risk Assessment)
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Title: Dynamic variations of vegetation drought and its response to atmospheric circulation factors in different sub-zones of China
Authors: Fei Wang a, Hexin Lai a, Yanbin Li a,*, Kai Feng a, Qingqing Tian a,b, Wenxian Guo a, Danyang Di c, Haibo Yang c,*
Affiliation: a School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China b State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China c School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001,
Abstract: Vegetation drought is a complex comprehensive process in which the water conditions for normal growth and development of vegetation are changed due to insufficient water supply, and then the vegetation is fed back to the ecosystem under water stress. In this study, based on the remotely sensed vegetation health index (VHI) data from 1982 to 2020 in China, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (EPSMD) was used to analyze the dynamic variations of vegetation drought, the gridded trend test method was applied to identify the vegetation drought trend characteristics at the grid scale, and the multiple cross wavelet technique was adopted to reveal the coupling effect of atmospheric circulation factors on vegetation drought. The results indicated that: (1) the vegetation drought showed an overall decreasing trend during 1982–2020 in China, while it would show an increasing trend in the future; (2) spring drought and summer drought were more likely to occur in South China, and autumn drought and winter drought were more likely to occur in Sichuan Basin; (3) the trend characteristic values of VHI in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 0.70, 0.48, 0.59 and 0.48, and the most obvious vegetation drought mitigation trend occurred in spring; (4) the combination of atmospheric circulation factors North Pacific Index (NPI)-North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Arctic Oscillation (AO) had the most significant impact on vegetation drought, which can be used as input factors of drought early warning system to improve the accuracy of drought prediction.

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