Research of the Relationship between Climate Change and Runoff in Watershed Volume II

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 March 2023) | Viewed by 5600

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Laboratory of Hydrology, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania
Interests: hydrological modeling; climate change; environmental flow; uncertainty; water resources management
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) states that in many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems and affecting the quantity and quality of water resources. Future projections of river runoff are mostly influenced by two main climate indices: precipitation and air temperature. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, global climate models (GCM), and downscaling methods (SDs) are now being used for the determination of climate projections and future changes in the river hydrological regime. These different approaches to the preparation of climate input data and hydrological modeling of river runoff have affected the variability of runoff projections in river catchments. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with selected sources (RCP, GCM, SD, parameters of hydrological models, etc.) is necessary for more accurate projecting of runoff changes in the future. Currently, there is a particular lack of research related to river runoff projection assessment in ungauged river basins.

Potential topics include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Relationship between climate and runoff projections in different river catchments;
  • Variability in river runoff projections in time and space for different hydrological regions;
  • Evaluation of uncertainty of runoff projections under a future climate;
  • Assessment of river runoff projections in the ungauged river catchments.

Dr. Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • hydrological modeling
  • climate scenarios
  • global models
  • downscaling
  • runoff projections
  • uncertainty
  • ungauged rivers

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 11600 KiB  
Article
The Development of a Hydrological Drought Index for Lithuania
by Serhii Nazarenko, Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, Diana Šarauskienė and Arvydas Povilaitis
Water 2023, 15(8), 1512; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15081512 - 12 Apr 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1927
Abstract
Recently, the number and intensity of hydrological droughts have been increasing; thus, it is necessary to identify and respond to them quickly. Since the primary hydrological data in Lithuania are water levels, and converting these data into discharge takes additional time, there is [...] Read more.
Recently, the number and intensity of hydrological droughts have been increasing; thus, it is necessary to identify and respond to them quickly. Since the primary hydrological data in Lithuania are water levels, and converting these data into discharge takes additional time, there is a need to develop a methodology or adapt these data to analyze and detect hydrological droughts. This paper examines the concept of the standardized water level index (SWLI) calculation, which is based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI) methods. SDI and SWLI data were compared; SWLI was used to analyze the situation in the past and future. A total of 15 main sub-basins were considered, and the future discharge of three rivers was estimated; SWLI showed good compatibility with SDI. To better analyze droughts, the use of severe drought threshold values (SDTV) was suggested as some river data (especially those for small rivers) needed to be corrected due to dense riverine flora. The dry years and trends identified by SWLI are consistent with previous studies. Full article
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19 pages, 4655 KiB  
Article
How the Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Curonian Lagoon Changed during Two Periods of Standard Climate Normal (1961–1990 and 1991–2020)
by Darius Jakimavičius, Diana Šarauskienė and Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė
Water 2023, 15(6), 1008; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061008 - 7 Mar 2023
Viewed by 1620
Abstract
Coastal lagoons are recognized as specific and complex water bodies vulnerable to climate change. The focus of this study was the Curonian Lagoon, the largest freshwater lagoon in the Baltic Sea and the whole of Europe. The changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of [...] Read more.
Coastal lagoons are recognized as specific and complex water bodies vulnerable to climate change. The focus of this study was the Curonian Lagoon, the largest freshwater lagoon in the Baltic Sea and the whole of Europe. The changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of the lagoon over six decades were evaluated using two periods of climatological standard normal: the most recent 30-year period, i.e., 1991–2020, and the period of 1961–1990. Before statistical analysis, data were checked for homogeneity, and breakpoints were determined by Pettitt and Buishand tests. The Mann–Kendall test was used to determine trends in the data series. The analysis revealed substantial changes in the hydrometeorological parameters of the lagoon during two climate normal periods. An exceptionally high rise in air temperature was detected. A considerable increase was identified in the lagoon water temperature and water level data series. The duration of permanent ice cover on the lagoon declined, as did the ice thickness, whereas the ice breakup advanced. A downward trend in wind speed data was detected, while the change in precipitation had a positive direction. Air and water temperatures were highly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the water level with the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND). Full article
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10 pages, 1030 KiB  
Article
Temperature Modeling with the Group Method of Data Handling to Inform Projected Rainfall Depth Changes for Extreme Events in Central West, New South Wales, Australia
by Ronald William Lake, Saeed Shaeri and S. T. M. L. D. Senevirathna
Water 2023, 15(2), 268; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15020268 - 9 Jan 2023
Viewed by 1717
Abstract
The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. Within this regional context, [...] Read more.
The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The study area encompasses six local government areas within the state’s Central West region. Stochastic methods for monotonic trend identification were used to support the modeling. Four established homogeneity tests were also used for assessing data integrity by determining the frequency of breakpoints within the mean of the data. The results of the GMDH modeling returned a coefficient of determination exceeding 0.9 for all stations dominated by an overall upward trend with an average maximum temperature increase of 0.459 °C per decade across the study region. The homogeneity tests found all data categorized as useful within the context of applicability for further climate change studies. By combining the modeled upward temperature trend with the intensity frequency distribution (IFD) design rainfall modification factor, projected depth increases by 2070 are obtained, enabling improved designs for stormwater infrastructure based on classified temperature variation scenarios. Full article
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