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Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges

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A Special Issue of Land (ISSN 2073-445X) belonging to the section "Land Use, Impact Assessment and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 July 2026) | Viewed by 9593

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Editors

Dr. Jian Zhang

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Guest Editor

Research Center for Land Use and Ecological Security Governance in Mining Areas, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Interests: land economy and policies; rural land property rights and systems; economic and social performance of the land market

Prof. Dr. Xin Li

E-Mail Website1 Website2
Guest Editor

Research Center for Land Use and Ecological Security Governance in Mining Areas, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Interests: land use and policies; spatial planning; land information; remote sensing monitoring

Prof. Dr. Hossein Azadi

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Guest Editor

Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
Interests: land governance; land use policy; land use planning; political economy; human geography; agricultural economics; food security; decision support systems; sustainability
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Land use policies are increasingly being recognized as pivotal drivers of climate change mitigation and carbon cycle dynamics. While land management practices and carbon policies have been extensively debated, the impacts of land management policies on carbon emissions and the adaptive practices in land management for climate change remain underexplored. Land management policies include a series of related policies on agricultural production, land use, spatial planning, etc. How these policies affect carbon emissions from agricultural production, land use/cover changes, crop structure, etc., as well as how to improve the adaptability of land policies to climate change and carbon reduction, have significant research and policy implications.

The goal of this Special Issue is to collect papers (original research articles and review papers) to provide insights into the impact of land management policies on carbon emissions and carbon sinks, as well as the simulations and the innovation of land systems to adapt to climate change and carbon neutrality goals. A wide range of agricultural, land use, ecological compensation, environment protection, spatial planning, and other policies are welcomed.

This Special Issue will welcome manuscripts that link the following themes:

Review and discussion on carbon reduction and climate adaptive land management policies.
Agricultural land use and policies on carbon emissions and carbon sinks.
Urban land use and policies on carbon emissions and carbon sinks.
Carbon and climate simulation of land use and policies.
Land management policies adaptive to climate change and carbon reduction.
The synergy between land policies and carbon reduction practices.

We look forward to receiving your original research articles and reviews.

Dr. Jian Zhang
Prof. Dr. Xin Li
Prof. Dr. Hossein Azadi
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-anonymized peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Land is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

land use policy
carbon reduction
climate change
carbon and climate simulation
agricultural land
urban land use
land management

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

24 pages, 1756 KB

Open AccessArticle

Does Coordinated Regional Development Reduce Urban Carbon Emissions? Evidence from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Strategy

by Guohua Hu, Xiaofei Yang, Tianyu Chen, Yige Ju and Feng Mi

Land 2026, 15(8), 1432; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15081432 - 8 Aug 2026

Viewed by 426

Abstract

Coordinated regional development plays an increasingly important role in promoting low-carbon transitions across China’s urban agglomerations. This study examines the effect of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Coordinated Development Strategy, elevated to major national strategic status in 2014, on urban carbon emissions. Using an unbalanced panel of 294 prefecture-level and higher-level cities from 2010 to 2023, we employ a two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences model to evaluate the strategy’s overall carbon-mitigation effect, potential transmission pathways, and spatial heterogeneity. The baseline DID coefficient is −0.052, corresponding to a 5.0% decline in city-level total CO₂ emissions in the 13 treated cities relative to the national comparison group after policy implementation. Within the same comparison framework, further analysis documents significant positive post-policy differentials in both the industrial-structure-upgrading index and green invention-patent applications; the industrial-structure-upgrading results are consistent with a potential emissions-reduction pathway. The heterogeneity analysis indicates a statistically significant relative carbon-mitigation effect for the prefecture-level cities of Hebei compared with the national comparison group, with a larger relative effect in Beijing and Tianjin. This spatial pattern is consistent with differences in industrial structure, innovation capacity, and environmental governance capacity across cities. The findings provide city-level quasi-experimental evidence that coordinated regional development can promote urban carbon mitigation and support differentiated carbon governance, coordinated industrial upgrading, and cross-regional low-carbon policy design. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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21 pages, 12374 KB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis on the Measurement and Spatial Pattern Characteristics of Territorial Space Carbon Sink Conflicts in Hangzhou City, China

by Xi Luo, Haohan Zhou and Xuefei Ma

Land 2026, 15(7), 1220; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15071220 - 7 Jul 2026

Viewed by 305

Abstract

Territorial space serves as a common platform for both ecosystem carbon sink functions and socioeconomic functions. Rapid urbanization has intensified the competition between carbon source and carbon sink areas, making the measurement of carbon sink conflicts critical for carbon emission reduction and land use optimization. This study takes Hangzhou as its research area and uses districts and counties as the basic evaluation units. Drawing on three dimensions—spatial carbon emission pressure, spatial carbon sequestration capacity, and spatial instability—the study develops a model to assess the intensity of territorial carbon sink conflicts. It systematically evaluates the conflict intensity across Hangzhou’s 13 districts and counties in 2020 and analyzes land use change from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that (1) from 2010 to 2020, Hangzhou’s built-up areas expanded to some extent, leading to intensified spatial conflicts between carbon sources and carbon sinks; and (2) in 2020, light and general conflict areas were mainly distributed in outlying counties (e.g., Lin’an, Chun’an); moderate conflict areas were in the urban periphery (e.g., Fuyang, Binjiang); and intense to severe conflict areas were in central urban districts (e.g., Shangcheng, Gongshu, Xiaoshan). Overall, carbon sink conflicts exhibited a concentric pattern of “uncontrolled core—periphery on the verge—distant suburbs under control.” This study provides a scientific basis for mitigating future carbon sink conflicts in Hangzhou and offers a perspective for identifying and managing such conflicts in other rapidly urbanizing regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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27 pages, 13615 KB

Open AccessArticle

Does China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy Enhance Urban Compactness? Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

by Leyang Xu, Jianing Song, Shiguang Shen, Weixiao Chen, Qin Tao and Bo Wen

Land 2026, 15(6), 1001; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15061001 - 6 Jun 2026

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 344

Abstract

Climate change has become a global challenge that cannot be ignored in the pursuit of development. The implementation of the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy (LCCPP) represents an approach to addressing environmental issues and promoting sustainable development. Investigating the impact of this policy on urban compactness (UC) is therefore crucial for advancing sustainable development. Using a staggered DID model with panel data from 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) over the period 2008–2023, along with robustness checks and spatial analysis, this study evaluates LCCPP’s impact on UC. The main findings are as follows: (1) The LCCPP has a significant positive effect on UC. (2) The policy enhances UC primarily through two channels: intensifying infrastructure development and promoting green technology innovation. (3) The promoting effect of the LCCPP is stronger in cities located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, within urban agglomerations, and in non-resource-dependent cities. (4) The policy reduces UC in neighboring non-pilot cities, leading to an overall decline in regional compactness. This study provides an important reference for exploring pathways toward sustainable development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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27 pages, 20765 KB

Open AccessArticle

Zero-Burning Strategies for PM2.5 and GHG Mitigation: A Spatial-Temporal Assessment of Crop Residue Burning in Northern Thailand

by Sate Sampattagul, Phakphum Paluang, Hisam Samae, Keng-Tung Wu, Shabbir H. Gheewala and Ratchayuda Kongboon

Land 2026, 15(5), 813; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15050813 - 11 May 2026

Viewed by 1128

Abstract

Agricultural crop residue burning is a major driver of seasonal PM2.5 pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Northern Thailand. This study quantified GHG emissions from the open burning of rice, maize, and sugarcane residues across six provinces (Chiang Mai, Mae Hong Son, Lampang, Uttaradit, Nakhon Sawan, and Kamphaeng Phet) from 2019 to 2024 using the 2006 IPCC emission methodology. Spatiotemporal patterns of fire hotspots were characterized using MODIS and VIIRS satellite data, combined with kernel density estimation (KDE) and land-use classification in ArcGIS Pro. Total non-CO₂ GHG emissions (CH₄ and N₂O, expressed as CO₂-eq using GWP100 from IPCC AR5) over the six years totaled 2,599,551 tCO₂-eq, with major rice contributing the largest share (35%), followed by sugarcane (24%), second rice (21%), and maize (20%). Nakhon Sawan was the leading emitter (41%), reflecting its extensive rice and sugarcane cultivation. Pearson correlation analysis revealed consistently positive relationships between daily fire hotspot counts and PM2.5 concentrations (r = 0.30–0.84), with the strongest correlations observed in Mae Hong Son, where basin topography traps pollutants. Time-series analysis confirmed pronounced seasonal PM2.5 peaks that exceeded Thailand’s 24-h NAAQS limit (37.5 μg/m³) by 7–9 times in severe years. Biochar production via pyrolysis was evaluated as a zero-burning alternative, with an estimated annual carbon sequestration potential of 2.3–3.5 million tCO₂-eq, substantially exceeding emissions from open burning. These findings indicate that crop-residue valorization options—including biochar production, composting, and biochar co-compost—could theoretically offset agricultural GHG emissions and reduce field-burning PM2.5 emissions in Northern Thailand. However, the realized mitigation will depend on (i) verification of biochar long-term stability in tropical Thai soils through dedicated in situ trials, (ii) economic incentives that offset biochar production costs of approximately 1500–3500 THB per tonne, and (iii) integration within a policy mix that combines burning bans, mechanization support, and farmer extension services. Without these enabling conditions, biochar should be regarded as a future-perspective option rather than an immediately deployable solution. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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30 pages, 22668 KB

Open AccessArticle

Coupling System Dynamics and Mixed Cellular Automata for Carbon-Economic Optimization in Coastal Zones: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Under SSP-RCPs

by Jiahui Chen, Yuting Jiang, Wenrui Yu and Gang Yang

Land 2026, 15(4), 648; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15040648 - 15 Apr 2026

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 628

Abstract

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have exacerbated global warming, elevating the importance of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in achieving carbon neutrality. This is especially true in coastal areas, which face dual pressures from rapid urbanization and the need to protect carbon sinks. This study developed an SD-MCCA coupling framework to predict the dynamic changes in LULC in four SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) in the coastal zone of Zhejiang Province from 2020 to 2100. Among them, the carbon storage was estimated by the InVEST model, and the dual-target optimization was carried out using the NSGA-II algorithm. Results indicated that construction land expanded significantly across all scenarios (50.3–110.2%), leading to a decline in carbon storage. However, outcomes were highly scenario-dependent; by 2100, carbon storage under the SSP126 pathway (1032.94 Mt) was notably higher than under the SSP585 pathway (1012.90 Mt). Coastal wetlands and forests emerged as major contributors to carbon storage, exhibiting high positive contribution scores, while construction land sites show significant negative correlations. Dual-target optimization achieved collaborative improvement: the optimized SSP126 scenario increased carbon storage by 1.16%, while economic benefits increased by 9.05%. The policy proposal emphasizes the priority of the SSP126 scenario, restricts the expansion of construction land, and enforces the ecological red line of wetlands and forests, guided by the phased Pareto optimal strategy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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23 pages, 1709 KB

Open AccessArticle

Adaptation of Maize Farmers to Climate Risk Under the Influence of Perceptions and Attitudes Towards Risk: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China

by Yujie Xia and Hongpeng Guo

Land 2026, 15(2), 314; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15020314 - 12 Feb 2026

Viewed by 937

Abstract

Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change, as shifting seasonal patterns disrupt farming cycles and changing rainfall patterns, along with extreme weather events, present significant challenges. From the perspectives of risk perception and risk attitudes, this study elucidates the decision-making mechanisms underlying climate adaptation behaviors among maize growers in China, providing insights to inform climate adaptation policies, land management strategies, and food security protection. This study surveyed 752 maize growers in Jilin province, China, and employed factor analysis to quantify climate risk perception and risk attitudes. Using the Probit model and moderation analysis, this study examines the impact of climate risk perception on adaptive behavior and investigates the moderating effect of risk attitude on the relationship between risk perception and climate adaptation behavior. It then explores heterogeneity across production scales and generations. (1) We categorize adaptation behaviors into three types—capital-based, labor-based, and technology-based—according to the input factors involved. Climate risk perception promotes all three types of adaptation behaviors, whereas risk aversion primarily exerts a significant inhibitory effect on technology-based adaptations. (2) Risk attitudes exert a negative moderating effect on the relationship between climate risk perception and the adaptation behaviors of maize growers. Specifically, a higher propensity for risk aversion attenuates the positive influence of risk perception on labor-based and technology-based adaptation behaviors. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the moderating effect of risk attitude is more pronounced among small-scale farmers and younger generations. In contrast, it remains statistically insignificant for large-scale operators and older-generation cohorts. Therefore, it is important to enhance farmers’ awareness of climate risks by strengthening the dissemination of meteorological information and early warnings. Technical guidance should be intensified to improve maize growers’ understanding and mastery of relevant technologies. Develop targeted land-use strategies for climate change adaptation based on maize growers’ age, farm size, and geographic location. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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20 pages, 10359 KB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Vegetation NPP in a Typical Area of China Based on the CASA Model

by Kuankuan Cui, Fei Yang, Qiulin Dong, Zehui Wang, Tianmeng Du and Zhe Wang

Land 2026, 15(2), 237; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15020237 - 30 Jan 2026

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 813

Abstract

To host the 2022 Winter Olympics, Beijing and Zhangjiakou implemented extensive ecological restoration projects, improving the ecological quality of the region. However, detailed evidence of long-term spatiotemporal dynamics in vegetation productivity remains limited. This study employed the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) to estimate the vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in the Beijing–Zhangjiakou region from 2004 to 2023, utilizing 250 m monthly NDVI data. The 30 m resolution China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) was incorporated to mask non-vegetated pixels and refine the vegetation mask, reducing mixed-pixel effects. Spatiotemporal variations, seasonal change-point detection, interannual stability, and trend persistence were analyzed across administrative regions and land cover types. Results indicate pronounced spatial heterogeneity in NPP, with persistently high values in forest-dominated western and northern Beijing and northeastern Zhangjiakou, and lower values concentrated in Beijing’s built-up and cropland-dominated southeastern plain. Pixel-level boxplots suggest stronger intra-regional variability in Beijing than in Zhangjiakou. Across landcover types, forests generally maintain the highest NPP, while grasslands are relatively lower. Boxplots further show that shrubs exhibit the highest variability, with all types showing right-skewed distributions. Annual mean NPP increased significantly for the entire region, Beijing, and Zhangjiakou, with interannual increase rates of 3.57, 1.56, and 4.53 gC·m⁻²·yr⁻², respectively; the lowest values occurred in 2007 and the highest in 2022. Trend maps and category statistics consistently suggest that positive trends dominate most of the region and expanded slightly during 2014–2023. BEAST analysis suggests a stable seasonal NPP cycle with no significant seasonal change points. CV-based assessment indicates generally high to extremely high stability, whereas low-stability zones are mainly associated with urban expansion areas, surrounding croplands, and parts of Zhangjiakou grasslands. Hurst results suggest that persistently increasing trends cover more than 90% of the study area, while persistently decreasing trends account for about 5.25% and are primarily linked to Beijing’s expansion zones. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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21 pages, 4684 KB

Open AccessArticle

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Territorial Space Conflicts Under the Orientation of Carbon Neutrality in Jiangsu Province, China

by Tao Sun and Jie Guo

Land 2026, 15(1), 135; https://doi.org/10.3390/land15010135 - 9 Jan 2026

Viewed by 689

Abstract

Measuring and simulating territorial space conflicts (TSCs) for the achievement of carbon neutrality is of critical significance for formulating regional sustainable utilization of territorial resources that are inherently green and low-carbon. This study develops a TSC evaluation framework: “conflict identification–scenario simulation–carbon effect assessment”. Focusing on Jiangsu Province, we clarify the evolutionary mechanism of TSCs under carbon neutrality goals, providing a scientific basis for high-quality regional development and low-carbon spatial governance. Results show that Jiangsu’s average TSC level was categorized as “strong conflict” (0.66) during 2005–2020. For 2030, four scenarios (natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, low-carbon development) project TSCs shifting from scattered to point-like distribution, concentrating in key core areas. Corresponding projected average carbon neutrality indices are 1.10, 1.11, 1.33, and 1.11, respectively. Under the low-carbon scenario, grid units with serious TSCs decreased by 4.53% compared to 2020—higher than natural development and economic priority scenarios, but lower than the ecological protection scenario (12.45%). Consequently, the low-carbon development scenario can optimally mitigate land use conflicts while maintaining carbon balance. This research provides robust data support for Jiangsu’s sustainable coordinated development and informs efficient land use and regional ecological security. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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27 pages, 5886 KB

Open AccessArticle

Green Public Procurement and Its Influence on Urban Carbon Emission Intensity: Spatial Spillovers Across 285 Prefectural Cities in China

by Li Wang, Hongxuan Wu and Jian Zhang

Land 2025, 14(8), 1545; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081545 - 27 Jul 2025

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2909

Abstract

Green public procurement (GPP) is a pivotal policy instrument for advancing urban low-carbon transitions. Using panel data from 285 Chinese cities (2015–2023), this study employs a panel fixed-effects model, mediation analysis, and spatial Durbin model to assess the impact, influencing mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects of GPP on urban carbon emissions intensity. The key findings reveal the following: (1) a 1% increase in GPP implementation is associated with a 1.360% reduction in local urban carbon emissions intensity. (2) GPP reduces urban carbon emissions intensity through urban green innovation, corporate sustainability performance, and public ecological awareness. (3) GPP exhibits significant cross-boundary spillovers, where a 1% reduction in local carbon emissions intensity induced by GPP leads to a 14.510% decline in that in neighboring cities. These results provide robust empirical evidence for integrating GPP into the urban climate governance framework. Furthermore, our findings offer practical insights for optimizing the implementation of GPP policies and strengthen regional cooperation in carbon reduction. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Carbon Cycle Impact Assessment of Land Policies, Prospects and Challenges)

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