- Article
Quantifying Global Wildfire Regimes and Disparities in Evacuation Efficacy in the Anthropocene
- Jiaqi Han and
- Maowei Bai
Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and human activities, the increasing frequency and evolution of major wildfire events pose severe challenges to global disaster prevention and mitigation systems. Systematically understanding their disaster characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns, and societal response efficacy is an urgent scientific requirement for formulating effective coping strategies. This study constructed a comprehensive database covering 137 major global wildfire events from 2018 to 2024, with data sourced from GFED, EM-DAT, and official national reports. Utilizing a synthesis of methods including descriptive statistics, spatiotemporal clustering analysis, K-means pattern recognition, and non-parametric tests, a multi-dimensional quantitative analysis was conducted on disaster characteristics, evolutionary trends, casualty patterns, and policy effectiveness. Despite potential reporting biases and heterogeneous data standards across countries, the analysis reveals the following: (1) All key wildfire metrics (e.g., burned area, casualties, evacuation scale) exhibited extreme right-skewed distributions, indicating that a minority of catastrophic events dominate the overall risk profile; (2) Global wildfire hotspots demonstrated dynamic expansion, spreading from traditional regions in North America and Australia to emerging areas such as Mediterranean Europe, Chile, and the Russian Far East, forming three significant spatiotemporal clusters; (3) Four distinct casualty patterns were identified: “High-Lethality”, “Large-Scale Evacuation”, “Routine-Control”, and “Ecological-Destruction”, revealing the differentiated formation mechanisms under various disaster scenarios; (4) A substantial gap of nearly 65 times in emergency evacuation efficiency—defined as the ratio of evacuated individuals to total casualties—was observed between developed and developing countries, highlighting a significant “development gap” in emergency management capabilities. This study finds evidence of increasing extremization, expansion, and polarization in global wildfire risk within the 2018–2024 event sample. The conclusions emphasize that future risk management must shift from addressing “normal” events to prioritizing preparedness for “catastrophic” scenarios and adopt refined strategies based on casualty patterns. Simultaneously, the international community needs to focus on bridging the emergency response capability gap between nations to collectively build a more resilient global wildfire governance system.
15 December 2025







