Commodities

This study looks at the impact of geopolitical risk on the volatility of wheat futures returns over the period 2012–2023, while controlling for inventories, shipping rates, and speculative activity. Using the volatility of CBOT first nearby futures returns, we apply a quantile regression approach to assess the impact of the variables on different parts of the volatility distribution. More specifically, we adopt the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model, which allows for examining the dynamic short- and long-run effects. We find that geopolitical risk has a non-linear, large positive effect on the top quartile of the distribution of wheat futures returns. We also show that the response of the volatility of wheat futures to shocks in the control variables is mostly non-linear across the conditional quantiles, significant in the tails and not around the median.

The urgent need to mitigate climate change has elevated green hydrogen as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, while green cryptocurrencies have emerged to address the environmental concerns of traditional cryptocurrency mining. This study investigates the dynamic correlation between the green hydrogen market and selected green cryptocurrencies (Cardano, Stellar, Hedera, Algorand, and Chia) from July 2021 to April 2024, utilizing the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model with robustness checks using EGARCH and GJR-GARCH specifications. Our findings reveal significant correlations, with peaks reaching up to 50% in 2022, a period likely influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Subsequently, a decline in these correlations was observed in 2023. These results underscore the interconnectedness of sustainability-driven markets, suggesting potential contagion effects during periods of global instability. The high persistence of correlation shocks (α + β values approaching unity) indicates that correlation regimes tend to be long- lasting, with important implications for portfolio diversification and risk management strategies. Robustness checks using EGARCH and GJR-GARCH specifications confirmed qualitatively similar patterns, reinforcing the validity of our findings into the evolving landscape of green finance and energy.

Industrial bio-inputs can improve commodity farming by replacing the use of agrochemicals. To assess the potential of agricultural bio-inputs to contribute to Brazil’s agro-industrial growth, we analyzed the market share held by domestic companies and the local market created by farmers who adopt bio-inputs. The results revealed that Brazilian companies accounted for 82.8% of the 221 companies with agricultural bio-inputs registered in Brazil by 2024. These domestic companies used technologies available to local investors and developed in collaboration with public innovation centers. Adoption levels among interviewed farmers ranged from 41.7% for biosolubilizers to 88.9% for bionematicides, revealing a large domestic market potential for bio-inputs in Brazil. We conclude that industrial agricultural bio-inputs represent an area of opportunity for Brazilian neo-industrialization based on local competitive advantages, low entry barriers, and domestic and foreign investments that can benefit from the local market for bio-inputs.