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Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets
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Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets

A special issue of Commodities (ISSN 2813-2432).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 September 2025 | Viewed by 2742

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Mariette Geyser

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Economic and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
Interests: agricultural marketing; agribusiness; agribusiness economics; marketing; agribusiness management; farm management; value chain analysis; farming; agricultural economics
Prof. Dr. Anmar Pretorius

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Economic and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
Interests: financial economics; applied econometrics; local economic development

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

1. Geopolitical economy of food systems.

This theme examines the impact of geopolitical factors on global food systems, with tariff wars, supply chain nationalization, sanctions, and strategic reserve policies reshaping trade flows and market access for major agricultural commodities. Additionally, it investigates the implications for regional food security and the role of international policy interventions.

2. Climate-resilient commodity value chains.

This theme investigates the adaptation and transformation of commodity value chains in response to escalating climate threats and sustainability demands. It explores market-based resilience mechanisms, such as parametric insurance products, climate-indexed derivatives, and carbon removal verification commodity contracts. The emphasis is on building adaptive and sustainable value chains that mitigate climate risks while ensuring environmental stewardship and economic viability.

3. AI, IoT, and Blockchain in commodity markets.

This theme explores the transformative impact of digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and Blockchain on agricultural commodity markets. These technologies are revolutionizing price discovery, risk management, and traceability systems by eliminating information asymmetries, reducing transaction costs, and enabling data-driven decision making.

4. Circular bioeconomy.

This theme focuses on the transition towards a circular bioeconomy, emphasizing the sustainable use of biological resources, waste reduction, and the creation of value-added products from agricultural commodities.

5. Innovations in commodity derivative markets.

This area examines recent advancements and innovations in commodity derivative markets, including algorithm trading, climate related indexed futures, ESG-linked contracts, and blockchain-enabled trading platforms. The focus is on how these innovations improve market efficiency, liquidity, and risk management.

6. Small-holder farmer inclusion.

This theme investigates strategies for integrating small-holder farmers into global commodity markets, addressing challenges related to market access, financial inclusion, and capacity building. It explores the role of digital platforms, micro-financing, and cooperative models in democratizing market participation, ensuring equitable growth, and enhancing livelihood security.

This Special Issue will serve as a crucial reference point for understanding the multidimensional transformation occurring across agricultural commodity markets. By bringing together perspectives from economics, agronomy, climate science, and technology studies, it offers policymakers and market participants a comprehensive framework for navigating the rapidly changing landscape of agricultural commodity markets in an era of heightened uncertainty and technological promise. This Special Issue will contribute to scholarly debates on market resilience, sustainability, and inclusive growth in an era of heightened uncertainty and technological advancement.

Dr. Mariette Geyser
Prof. Dr. Anmar Pretorius
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Commodities is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1000 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • geopolitical economy of food systems
  • climate-resilient commodity value chains
  • AI, IoT and Blockchain in commodity markets
  • circular bioeconomy
  • small-holder farmer inclusion
  • innovations in commodity derivative markets

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 1321 KB  
Article
Impact of COVID-19-Related Mobility Changes on the Mango Market: A Case Study of Tokyo, Japan
by Md Shahed Almi Sajid and Kentaka Aruga
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030019 - 8 Sep 2025
Viewed by 157
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo mango market by combining transaction data from the Ota Fruit Market with Google Mobility indices. In Japan, mangoes are regarded as a luxury fruit, largely dependent on imports and associated with [...] Read more.
This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo mango market by combining transaction data from the Ota Fruit Market with Google Mobility indices. In Japan, mangoes are regarded as a luxury fruit, largely dependent on imports and associated with high domestic production costs, which positions them as premium commodities. To assess the influence of price dynamics and human mobility on mango trading volumes during the pandemic, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The long-run results indicate that mango demand was positively associated with increased residential activity: a 1% rise in time spent at home during the COVID era corresponded to an increase of 786 kg in trade volume. Similarly, a 1% increase in time spent in retail and recreation areas was associated with a 364 kg rise in trade volume. In contrast, time spent in grocery and pharmacy locations showed no statistically significant effect. In the short run, fluctuations in mobility patterns and price levels contributed to variations in demand, with sales volumes adjusting toward their long-run equilibrium. The mobility indices exhibited mixed short-term effects on trade volumes. Notably, the analysis revealed that mango trading volumes rebounded in 2022, coinciding with the easing of pandemic-related disruptions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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12 pages, 2438 KB  
Article
Trends and Challenges in Gum Arabic Markets in Key Producing Countries in Africa (Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, and Senegal)
by Moammar Dayoub
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030016 - 21 Aug 2025
Viewed by 1122
Abstract
Gum arabic production is a key source of income for communities in several African countries. Despite this, producing nations capture only a small share of the market value due to weak domestic markets, low price incentives, and limited value-added. Meanwhile, global demand is [...] Read more.
Gum arabic production is a key source of income for communities in several African countries. Despite this, producing nations capture only a small share of the market value due to weak domestic markets, low price incentives, and limited value-added. Meanwhile, global demand is expected to grow from USD 1.1 billion in 2025 to USD 2.2 billion by 2035, driven by rising consumption in food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and textiles. Importing countries, such as France and the US, benefit from significantly higher export prices—French export prices rose from USD 1.58/kg to USD 4.63/kg—highlighting the value added from outside producer regions. This study uses a qualitative analytical approach to examine trends and challenges in enhancing value capture within producer countries. Key strategies include local value-added, collective action, compliance with international standards, market transparency, and direct trade linkages. Findings suggest that implementing these measures could raise farmgate prices by 30–50%, retain more value within African economies, and improve access to premium export markets. In conclusion, targeted interventions are crucial for strengthening the gum arabic supply chain and promoting sustainable and equitable collection practices in producer countries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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19 pages, 398 KB  
Article
EUDR Compliance in Ghana’s Natural Rubber Sector and Its Implications for Smallholders
by Stephan Mabica, Erasmus Narteh Tetteh, Ingrid Fromm and Caleb Melenya Ocansey
Commodities 2025, 4(3), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities4030014 - 21 Jul 2025
Viewed by 880
Abstract
The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder [...] Read more.
The enforcement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) may reduce the supply of natural rubber to the European Union (EU), potentially leading to price increases due to the inelastic nature of rubber demand. This study assesses the potential financial implications for smallholder producers in Ghana, considering both the opportunities and risks associated with the evolving regulatory environment under EUDR and local market access conditions. A cost–benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to evaluate the impact of different EUDR-related export decline scenarios on the net present value (NPV) of a standard 4-hectare plantation. The results suggest that even a minor 2.5% decline in global exports to the EU could increase the NPV by 17% for an independent compliant producer. However, a simulated COVID-19-like crisis in the fifth year of production leads to a 20% decline in NPV, reflecting vulnerability to external shocks. Based on these findings, the study identifies two priorities. This first is improving the coordination and harmonization of compliance efforts across the value chain to enable more producers to benefit from potential EUDR-related price increases. The recent creation of the Association of Natural Rubber Actors of Ghana (ANRAG) presents an opportunity to support such collective mechanisms. Second, minimizing losses during demand shocks requires the Tree Crops Development Authority (TCDA) to establish clear rules and transparent reporting for authorizing unprocessed rubber exports when factories reduce purchases due to low international prices—thus preserving market access for vulnerable producers. Together, these approaches would ensure that the potential benefits of the EUDR are realized inclusively, remain stable despite market downturns, and do not undermine value addition in domestic processing factories. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Changes in Agricultural Commodities Markets)
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