Geomagnetic Storms and Their Consequences: Advances in Prediction Models

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Upper Atmosphere".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2026 | Viewed by 1810

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Interests: space weather; solar energetic particles; geomagnetic storm
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

We are pleased to announce a Special Issue dedicated to “Geomagnetic Storms and Their Consequences: Advances in Prediction Models”, inviting high-quality research articles, reviews, and case studies that focus on the dynamic interactions between solar wind, the magnetosphere, the ionosphere, and the upper atmosphere, especially geomagnetic storms and their consequences.

Geomagnetic storms, which are triggered by solar wind perturbations, can profoundly impact the ionosphere and thermosphere, disrupting satellite operations, radio communications, and navigation systems. This Special Issue seeks to advance our understanding of storm time phenomena, including ionospheric irregularities, thermospheric heating, and the coupling mechanisms between magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric layers. Contributions leveraging ground-based observations, satellite data, numerical modeling, and machine learning approaches are particularly encouraged.

Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Storm-induced ionospheric plasma irregularities and scintillations.
  • Thermospheric composition and density changes during storms.
  • Magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere coupling processes.
  • Impacts on GNSS, radar, and HF communication systems.
  • Long-term trends in space weather effects on the upper atmosphere.

Dr. Mingxian Zhao
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • geomagnetic storm
  • space weather
  • upper atmosphere
  • thermosphere
  • ionosphere
  • magnetosphere
  • solar–terrestrial relations

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 9004 KB  
Article
Asymmetric Upper-Atmosphere Response and the GNSS Positioning Accuracy of the October 2024 Severe Geomagnetic Storm over Two African Mid-Latitude Stations
by Joseph Omojola and Daniel Moeketsi
Atmosphere 2026, 17(5), 494; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050494 - 12 May 2026
Viewed by 199
Abstract
Space weather events triggered by solar activity impact critical technologies like the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) by causing atmospheric imbalances that alter ionospheric electron density. This study investigates the upper atmosphere response to the severe geomagnetic storms of October 2024, focusing on [...] Read more.
Space weather events triggered by solar activity impact critical technologies like the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) by causing atmospheric imbalances that alter ionospheric electron density. This study investigates the upper atmosphere response to the severe geomagnetic storms of October 2024, focusing on the coupling and compositional exchange between the ionosphere and thermosphere. Data were analysed from two mid-latitude African stations, Rabat (RABT) and Hermanus (HNUS), using GNSS-Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements alongside thermospheric circulation observations from NASA-GOLD and solar wind indices from OMNIWeb. The October 2024 storm, which reached a minimum Dst of −333 nT, drove a negative ionospheric storm phase marked by TEC depletions exceeding 50 TECU. This response was driven by storm-time thermospheric upwelling of N2-rich air, which lowered the O/N2 ratio and accelerated plasma loss via charge-exchange reactions. Furthermore, a distinct hemispheric asymmetry was observed, as the equatorward thermospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere arrived before that of the Southern Hemisphere. Direct post-processing of the Earth-Centred Earth-Fixed (ECEF) coordinates using RTKLIB single-point position revealed that, while positioning accuracy significantly degraded at HNUS with errors increasing by up to 270%, it counterintuitively improved at RABT, where errors reached their minimum during the main and early recovery phases of the storm. These findings highlight that the technological impact of severe space weather is determined not just by storm magnitude but by the specific sign and spatial structure of the regional ionospheric response. Full article
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18 pages, 3175 KB  
Article
Examining the Super Intense Geomagnetic Storm on 10–11 May, 2024 via Artificial Neural Networks
by Sercan Bulbul, Fuat Basciftci, Burhaneddin Bilgen and Elif Tekin Gok
Atmosphere 2026, 17(3), 302; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17030302 - 16 Mar 2026
Viewed by 551
Abstract
This study investigates the super intense geomagnetic storm of 10–11 May 2024, during which the Dst index reached −412 nT, marking the most severe event of the last two decades. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to estimate the geomagnetic storm [...] Read more.
This study investigates the super intense geomagnetic storm of 10–11 May 2024, during which the Dst index reached −412 nT, marking the most severe event of the last two decades. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to estimate the geomagnetic storm indices Dst, Kp, and ap using hourly solar wind parameters (Bz, E, P, N, and V) obtained from the OMNI database. The model successfully reproduced the rapid and nonlinear variations observed during the main phase of the storm. The correlation coefficients (R) between observed and estimated values were 99.5%, 98.8%, and 99.1% for Dst, Kp, and ap, respectively. The corresponding mean square error (RMSE) values were 5.9 nT for Dst, 4.2 for Kp, and 2.1 nT for ap. Despite the extreme geomagnetic disturbance conditions, the ANN architecture maintained high estimative stability and accuracy, particularly during the sharp Dst decrease associated with southward Bz excursions. These results demonstrate that ANN-based approaches can effectively model the nonlinear dynamics of superstorms and provide a reliable complementary tool for forecasting extreme geomagnetic events. Full article
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32 pages, 3525 KB  
Article
Discovery of Regular Daily Ionospheric Scintillation
by Janis Balodis, Madara Normand and Ingus Mitrofanovs
Atmosphere 2025, 16(12), 1330; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16121330 - 25 Nov 2025
Viewed by 597
Abstract
The aim of this study was to find out whether, just like in March 2015, daily regular GPS positioning disturbances caused by ionospheric scintillations occurred in other months of the solar activity cycle 24. The GPS positioning 90-s kinematic solutions of selected 46 [...] Read more.
The aim of this study was to find out whether, just like in March 2015, daily regular GPS positioning disturbances caused by ionospheric scintillations occurred in other months of the solar activity cycle 24. The GPS positioning 90-s kinematic solutions of selected 46 months covering 11 years were used to search for regular daily scintillation events. The hypothesis on predictable regular daily ionospheric scintillation was tested. Scintillation waves were discovered as a result of space weather impact with the sidereal day regularity. It leads to the conclusion that the radiation originates from the interplanetary medium. The enhancement of radiation waves by solar activity is similar to Pc1 waves. The regular daily ionospheric scintillation waves are recorded at any time of the day. In the years with low solar activity in 2010 and 2012, regular scintillation waves were not found. It cannot be claimed that the comparison of daily regular ionospheric scintillation cases over time with the mentioned Pc1 wave cases indicates any interrelation. Full article
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