Charting the Pathway to STEM: How Middle School Socialization and Science Growth Trajectories Predict Adult Career Success

Middle school is a critical period for science education, yet the collective impact of socialization agents on students’ longitudinal science learning trajectories and subsequent STEM careers remains underexplored. This study investigates how seventh-grade (typically aged 12–13) socialization agents—parental educational encouragement, peer academic support, constructive school learning environment, and student self-esteem—collectively shape the developmental growth trajectories of science performance throughout middle school and predict the attainment of a college STEM degree and later engagement in STEM professions in adulthood. Using five-wave longitudinal data from the Longitudinal Study of American Youth (LSAY, N = 3116), we employed latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) to analyze these relationships. Results indicated that all four grade-7 socialization agents significantly predicted a higher initial level of science achievement. In addition, parental encouragement and a constructive school learning environment also predicted a positive growth rate of science achievement. Furthermore, both the initial level and growth of science performance significantly predicted successful graduation with a STEM degree. These middle school science trajectories, along with obtaining a STEM degree, sequentially mediated the relationships between the grade-7 socialization agents and adult STEM career engagement. The findings underscore the necessity of educational policies and interventions that foster a synergistic pro-learning socialization context in middle school to bolster students’ science education and pave the way for long-term STEM success.