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Econometrics, Volume 8, Issue 3

September 2020 - 12 articles

Cover Story: Climate models commonly employ energy balance conditions that link the average global temperature, surface radiation, and greenhouse gases. Global balance suggests the existence of an econometric linkage between the trends that these variables separately manifest. Such linkages are evident in empirical research and appear in panel models used in recent econometric studies of Earth’s climate to measure the holy grail of climate science – transient climate sensitivity to CO₂, the effect on the temperature of doubling atmospheric CO₂ levels from the pre-industrial era. Asymptotic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations reveal substantial differences between the standard methods of dynamic panel estimation. Estimates of global TCS are identical and, therefore, robust to estimation method as well as the specific trending mechanisms that are present in global temperature, radiation, and CO₂. View this paper

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Feature Paper
Article

8 Citations

4,522 Views

15 Pages

Frequency-Domain Evidence for Climate Change

Manveer Kaur Mangat and
Erhard Reschenhofer

Econometrics2020, 8(3), 28;https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics8030028

20 July 2020

The goal of this paper is to search for conclusive evidence against the stationarity of the global air surface temperature, which is one of the most important indicators of climate change. For this purpose, possible long-range dependencies are invest...

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Feature Paper
Article

4,123 Views

28 Pages

Confidence Distributions for FIC Scores

Céline Cunen and
Nils Lid Hjort

Econometrics2020, 8(3), 27;https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics8030027

1 July 2020

When using the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) for assessing and ranking candidate models with respect to how well they do for a given estimation task, it is customary to produce a so-called FIC plot. This plot has the different point estimates a...

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Econometrics - ISSN 2225-1146

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