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Volume 10
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10.3390/universe10080321
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Article

CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24

by
Ksenia Kaportseva
1,2,*,
Yulia Shugay
1,
Anna Vakhrusheva
1,2,
Vladimir Kalegaev
1,2,
Anton Shiryaev
1,3 and
Valeriy Eremeev
1
1
Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
2
Physics Department of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
3
Bryansk Information Technology Department, Bryansk State Technical University, Bryansk 241035, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Universe 2024, 10(8), 321; https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10080321
Submission received: 31 May 2024 / Revised: 9 July 2024 / Accepted: 1 August 2024 / Published: 9 August 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Solar and Stellar Activity: Exploring the Cosmic Nexus)
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Abstract

The modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arrival to Earth was carried out using a one-dimensional drag-based model (DBM) over the period from 2010 to 2018. The CME propagation model includes a simulation of the interaction of the CME with background solar wind via the quasi-stationary solar wind (QSW) model. An analysis of the results of forecasting CME speed and time of arrival to Earth was performed. Input data were obtained from the CACTus database. To ensure real-time operation, a new algorithm was established to select events that can reach Earth more likely. Coronal dimming data were used to obtain coordinates of the CME source location. Forecasting results have been compared with interplanetary CME (ICME) catalogs. The system has predicted 189 of 280 events (68%), with a tolerance of 48 h for the period of maximum solar activity (from 2010 to 2015). The average absolute error of predicted CME arrival speed is about 90 km/s. Our system has predicted 80% of ICMEs associated with extreme geomagnetic storms (Dstmin ≤ −100 nT) within a tolerance of 24 h.
Keywords: space weather; coronal mass ejections; solar wind; coronal dimming; drag-based model; CME forecasting space weather; coronal mass ejections; solar wind; coronal dimming; drag-based model; CME forecasting

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kaportseva, K.; Shugay, Y.; Vakhrusheva, A.; Kalegaev, V.; Shiryaev, A.; Eremeev, V. CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24. Universe 2024, 10, 321. https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10080321

AMA Style

Kaportseva K, Shugay Y, Vakhrusheva A, Kalegaev V, Shiryaev A, Eremeev V. CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24. Universe. 2024; 10(8):321. https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10080321

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kaportseva, Ksenia, Yulia Shugay, Anna Vakhrusheva, Vladimir Kalegaev, Anton Shiryaev, and Valeriy Eremeev. 2024. "CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24" Universe 10, no. 8: 321. https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10080321

APA Style

Kaportseva, K., Shugay, Y., Vakhrusheva, A., Kalegaev, V., Shiryaev, A., & Eremeev, V. (2024). CME Forecasting System: Event Selection Algorithm, Dimming Data Application Limitations, and Analysis of the Results for Events of the Solar Cycle 24. Universe, 10(8), 321. https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10080321

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