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Open AccessArticle

Uncertainty Quantification of Future Design Rainfall Depths in Korea

1
Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea
2
Institute of Environmental Research, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea
3
School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 44919, Korea
4
Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010022
Received: 21 November 2019 / Revised: 21 December 2019 / Accepted: 23 December 2019 / Published: 25 December 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Climate Change: Accomplishments and Challenges)
One of the most common ways to investigate changes in future rainfall extremes is to use future rainfall data simulated by climate models with climate change scenarios. However, the projected future design rainfall intensity varies greatly depending on which climate model is applied. In this study, future rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are projected using various combinations of climate models. Future Ensemble Average (FEA) is calculated using a total of 16 design rainfall intensity ensembles, and uncertainty of FEA is quantified using the coefficient of variation of ensembles. The FEA and its uncertainty vary widely depending on how the climate model combination is constructed, and the uncertainty of the FEA depends heavily on the inclusion of specific climate model combinations at each site. In other words, we found that unconditionally using many ensemble members did not help to reduce the uncertainty of future IDF curves. Finally, a method for constructing ensemble members that reduces the uncertainty of future IDF curves is proposed, which will contribute to minimizing confusion among policy makers in developing climate change adaptation policies. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; ensemble average; intensity–duration–frequency curves; rainfall extremes; uncertainty climate change; ensemble average; intensity–duration–frequency curves; rainfall extremes; uncertainty
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Kim, K.; Choi, J.; Lee, O.; Cha, D.-H.; Kim, S. Uncertainty Quantification of Future Design Rainfall Depths in Korea. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 22.

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