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Article

Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts

German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts, Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
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World Electr. Veh. J. 2009, 3(1), 172-185; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj3010172
Published: 27 March 2009

Abstract

Assessing future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles requires taking into account the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. The Modelica library AlternativeVehicles is used to analyse energy consumption of battery (BEV), extended range electric (EREV) as well as fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV). Costs of technical measures for enhancing conventional vehicles, as well as cost curves for batteries and fuel cells are assessed. Using a newly developed model, VECTOR21, customer purchase decision is modeled to derive future market shares of propulsion technologies and fuels, taking into account energy consumption, energy prices and taxation as relevant influencing factors. Two different scenarios demonstrate the dependency of future market prospects on a set of general conditions. With electricity and hydrogen being produced from renewable energy sources, as well as implementation of strict regulations regarding CO2, BEV and FCHEV could achieve a market share of up to approx. 65 % on the German new passenger car market by 2030. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 65 % in this scenario. In a less ambitious scenario a market share of approx. 20 % is seen for BEV, with no application of FCHEV in the long run. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 40 % in this scenario.
Keywords: modeling; passenger car; energy consumption; cost; market; environment modeling; passenger car; energy consumption; cost; market; environment

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Mock, P.; Hülsebusch, D.; Ungethüm, J.; Schmid, S.A. Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts. World Electr. Veh. J. 2009, 3, 172-185. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj3010172

AMA Style

Mock P, Hülsebusch D, Ungethüm J, Schmid SA. Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts. World Electric Vehicle Journal. 2009; 3(1):172-185. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj3010172

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mock, Peter, Dirk Hülsebusch, Jörg Ungethüm, and Stephan A. Schmid. 2009. "Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts" World Electric Vehicle Journal 3, no. 1: 172-185. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj3010172

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