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World Electric Vehicle Journal is published by MDPI from Volume 9 issue 1 (2018). Articles in this Issue were published by The World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) and its member the European Association for e-Mobility (AVERE), the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), and the Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP). They are hosted by MDPI on mdpi.com as a courtesy and upon agreement with AVERE.
Open AccessArticle

Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts

German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts, Pfaffenwaldring 38-40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
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World Electr. Veh. J. 2009, 3(1), 172-185; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj3010172
Published: 27 March 2009
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Abstract

Assessing future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles requires taking into account the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. The Modelica library AlternativeVehicles is used to analyse energy consumption of battery (BEV), extended range electric (EREV) as well as fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV). Costs of technical measures for enhancing conventional vehicles, as well as cost curves for batteries and fuel cells are assessed. Using a newly developed model, VECTOR21, customer purchase decision is modeled to derive future market shares of propulsion technologies and fuels, taking into account energy consumption, energy prices and taxation as relevant influencing factors. Two different scenarios demonstrate the dependency of future market prospects on a set of general conditions. With electricity and hydrogen being produced from renewable energy sources, as well as implementation of strict regulations regarding CO2, BEV and FCHEV could achieve a market share of up to approx. 65 % on the German new passenger car market by 2030. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 65 % in this scenario. In a less ambitious scenario a market share of approx. 20 % is seen for BEV, with no application of FCHEV in the long run. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 40 % in this scenario.
Keywords: modeling; passenger car; energy consumption; cost; market; environment modeling; passenger car; energy consumption; cost; market; environment
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Mock, P.; Hülsebusch, D.; Ungethüm, J.; Schmid, S.A. Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts. World Electr. Veh. J. 2009, 3, 172-185.

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