J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 15, Issue 4 (April 2022) – 42 articles

At the crossroads of sociology and international relations, this interdisciplinary and comparative research article explores how the COVID-19 outbreak has impacted China–Europe relations. Unfolding the critical moments of the COVID-19 outbreak, this article characterizes the evolution of China–Europe relations with regard to the facemask. This simple object of self-protection against the coronavirus strikingly became a source of contention between peoples and states. In the face of this situation, we argue that the facemask is the prism through which to illustrate (1) the transnational links between China and its overseas population, (2) the changing social perceptions of China and Chinese-looking people in European societies, and (3) the advent of China’s health diplomacy and its reception in Europe. Comparing two European settings—France and the United Kingdom (UK)—the common denominator appears to be the reduced trust, if not outright distrust, between individuals and communities in the French and British contexts, and in Sino–French and Sino–British relations at the transnational level. Combining critical juncture theory and (dis)trust in international relations as our analytical framework, this article examines how the facemask became a politicized object, both between states and between Mainland China and its overseas population, as the epidemic unfolded throughout Europe. Adopting a qualitative approach, our dataset comprises the analysis of official speeches and statements; press releases; traditional and social media content (especially through hashtags such as #JeNeSuisPasUnVirus, #IAmNotAVirus, #CoronaRacism, etc.); and interviews with Chinese, French, and British community members. Full article

This paper employs a structural empirical model to gauge the possible effects of COVID-19, political and financial events on the returns and volatility of commercial banks. It observes that insured and run-prone uninsured depositors choose between differentiated commercial banks, which appears to be significantly impacted from the present pandemic, especially for the case of Pakistan’s commercial banking sector. The estimated volatility series for commercial banks is measured through the GARCH model, which explains the current financial and political distress for the case of shocks from COVID-19. We calibrate by Impulse Indicator Saturation (IIS) to detect the structural breaks formed by these events in the returns and volatility series of commercial banks. It is observed that the calibrated model possesses almost all financial events that have had a prominent impact on the returns and volatility series whereas two out of eighteen political events are unimpacted. Full article

Service providers are developing more sophisticated offerings, and it is important for them to understand the demographics and specific context by which individuals might procure their services. This allows companies to stay relevant to their customers. The target of this paper is to investigate the types of goals Millennials and Generation Z individuals are pursuing and what role different service providers may play in supporting these endeavors, with the aim of providing actionable insights for insurers. Furthermore, it is to investigate how personality traits may relate to differences in individuals’ preferences. The study is based on a survey of 854 Swiss university students. The results indicate that goals are concentrated in a few categories, and educational institutions and healthcare providers are well-positioned to support goal achievement. Insurers, on the other hand, rank low among the preferences, and their profile is largely undifferentiated. This result indicates that insurers need to further focus their efforts to gain relevance among younger customers. Supporting goals relating to self-fulfillment and ability for high-conscientious and/or low-honest/humble customers by focusing on risk education and risk management seems a particularly interesting strategy for insurers. Full article

The present paper uses asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling where a nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate yields results that are different than those yielded by linear models. We study cocoa imports for Turkey with advanced ARDL and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. Our findings reveal that there is considerable asymmetry for the case of Turkish cocoa bean imports from Côte d’Ivoire. Compared with imports from Ghana, there are significant differences in Turkish importers’ preferences when choosing between the two cocoa bean providers. Our results provide support for the nonlinear adjustment of the real Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate and a hint of imperfect rivalry in Turkish cocoa bean imports. Full article

We present a new estimation of business opening and closure rates using data from Google Places—the data set behind the Google Maps service. Our algorithm, through a bisection routine, counts the appearance and disappearance of “pins” that represent unique businesses. As a proof of concept, we compute business opening and closure rates for the city of Ottawa during the reopening phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2021. The lifting of restrictions coincides with a wave of re-entry of temporarily closed businesses, suggesting that government support may have facilitated the survival of hibernating businesses. Our entry estimates are validated by a survey of new businesses. This methodology allows policymakers to monitor business dynamics in quasi-real-time during rapidly unfolding crises. Full article

This paper examines the impact of vaccination programs on the stock market volatility of the travel and leisure sector. Using daily data from 56 countries over the period from January 2020 to March 2021, we find that vaccination leads to a decrease in the investment risk of travel and leisure companies. Vaccination results in a decrease in the volatility of stock prices of travel and leisure companies. The drop in volatility is robust to many alternative estimation techniques, different volatility measures, and various proxies for vaccinations. Moreover, this effect cannot be explained by an array of control variables; this includes the pandemic itself and both the containment and closure policies that followed. Furthermore, the beneficial role of vaccinations is relatively stronger in emerging markets than in developed ones. Full article

In the current research we aim to analyse the public redevelopment projects financed in Hungary from the Territorial and Settlement Development OP between 2014 and 2020, with special focus on cultural use. Brownfield redevelopment is a major topic in an urban development context from an urban sustainability, circularity, and creative urban/regional development point of view. Within the examined period, 39% of the brownfield redevelopment projects have cultural ties. A detailed introduction of the cases highlights the importance of landscape-oriented spatial strategies, temporary use, and mixed land use options in redevelopment for long-term viability. The original function of redevelopment projects encompasses a wide range. We could find industrial brownfields from the 19th century to agro-food facilities from the soviet era, which proves that the allocation of ERDF funds for brownfield redevelopments helped the rehabilitation of those sites which are important in showcasing Hungarian history. Full article

In some cases, accounting firms and individual auditors will be punished by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for involvement in the violations of their client companies. Taking the enforcement actions against listed companies and accounting firms of the CSRC from 2006 to 2019 as a research sample, this paper manually sorted out the specific characteristics of corporate fraud and empirically examined the regulatory authorities’ supervision tendency to auditors. The results show that accounting firms are more likely to be involved when their client companies’ fraudulent practices affect financial statements, occur during the IPO process, and continue for a longer period of time. Income statement manipulation and higher fraud amounts also increase the probability of accounting firms being sanctioned. Further analyses show that regulators’ supervision intensity is increasing over time, and they impose penalties on auditors based on the severity of corporate fraud; however, the intensity and differentiation of the sanctions are still insufficient. This study expands relevant research on accounting firm sanctions and provides empirical evidence for further improvement of audit industry supervision in an emerging market. Full article

Ukraine had had its ups and downs in recent years. It has, for example, dramatically improved its ease of doing business (EOBB), and it has made some progress reducing the relative size and influence of its shadow economy (Shadow). But, the Russian invasion of 2014 (Conflict) forced it to take a few developmental steps backwards. In this paper, we consider the effect of these factors, positive and negative, on the number of mergers and acquisitions, involving Ukrainian firms. We construct a sample of 4030 acquisitions in the period 1 January 2000–31 December 2020. Our results suggest that while the number of acquisitions by domestic firms increases in efficiency (+EOBB), transparency (−Shadow) and peace (−Conflict), the number of foreign acquisitions increases in bureaucracy (−EOBB), in informality (+Shadow), and unrest (+Conflict). From an academic perspective, our findings fit with some recent work, while providing new insights too. From a policy perspective, our findings that the number of foreign acquisitions is negatively affected by Ukraine’s attempts to modernize and improve its economy and is positively affected by the ongoing conflict with Russia, makes us wonders what type of ‘false friends’ make such investments. Full article

This work examines three frameworks for responding to economic disruption: risk mitigation, systemic recovery, and economic resilience. Specifically, by reviewing the metatheoretical commitments, analytic contexts, and implications of two economic perspectives, represented by risk mitigation and systemic recovery, we argue that current approaches to understanding resilience in academic economics have failed to address ongoing and emergent disruptions in the economic and social world. In response, this work also reviews a possible synthesis of economic and communication frameworks. This review places the economic resilience framework, inspired by the communication theory of resilience, in conversation with extant literature in economics, communication studies, and other disciplines and concludes with an outline for further theoretical, methodological, and practical development. Full article

In this study, the linkage between tourism activity and economic development in 21 European countries is analyzed. The data are collected on an annual basis and cover the years from 1995 to 2017. The main purpose is to investigate empirically if there is a long-run connection between tourism activity and the development of the economy by applying a multivariate model. For this purpose, generalized method of moments (GMM) and Granger causality tests are applied within a panel data framework. The results reveal that tourism contributes significantly to European countries’ economic growth. Furthermore, Granger causality analysis shows a unidirectional relationship between tourism and economic development, leading to sufficient evidence for the validity of the tourism-led-growth hypothesis. Therefore, for these European countries, the tourism–led growth hypothesis is supported (meeting our expectations). Full article

The focus of this confirmatory research was on consumer attitudes towards the sustainability of fashion brands and how these attitudes influence their purchasing decisions. The aim was to explore if the gap between attitudes and purchasing behaviour was present within Croatian consumers to the same extent as previous research has shown. A survey was conducted of 263 respondents with purchasing power to examine their perception, awareness of, and attitudes towards sustainability and eco-fashion as consumers. The data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. The results suggest that participants have a positive attitude towards the sustainability of fashion brands. Moreover, a positive correlation was found between the importance of fashion brand sustainability and consumers’ decisions to buy sustainable clothing products. However, the sustainability of a fashion brand or product is among the least important factors in their purchasing decision. This could mean that their positive attitude may not necessarily be reflected in actual purchasing behaviour, which is consistent with previous research. The results of this study provide a framework for a greater understanding of the various factors that may influence consumer behaviour, such as the sustainability of a fashion brand or product, potentially facilitating the development of relevant strategies in the fashion industry and changing the way fashion works and is perceived in the future. Full article

This is the first survey conducted in China on the holding of cryptocurrencies. Although cryptocurrencies have existed in the world for more than a decade, because the exchange of cryptocurrencies is banned in China, there is no guidance on the holding of cryptocurrencies in China’s accounting standards. Moreover, although the exchange of cryptocurrencies is prohibited by the Chinese government, holdings of cryptocurrencies by Chinese entities and individuals cannot be prevented. Thus, we conducted a survey in investors’ attitudes towards cryptocurrencies in Xiamen City, a special economic zone (SEZ) and a pilot free trade zone (FTZ) in China. The survey respondents commonly defined cryptocurrencies as investments (45%), inventories (19%), and intangible assets (36%). A total of 84% of respondents stated that the value of a cryptocurrency should be represented by a fair value. These results are similar to those obtained in a survey by The Digital Assets Accounting Consortium (DAAC), but different to the tentative agenda decision of the International Financial Reporting Standards Interpretations Committee (IFRSIC). Additionally, 65% of respondents stated that they prefer to accept cryptocurrencies as cash equivalent currencies, and these cash equivalent currencies were considered to have two main functions: a medium of exchange (56%) and a monetary unit for pricing goods and services (52%). Full article

The Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (ARCH) model is useful for handling volatilities in economical time series phenomena that ARIMA models are unable to handle. The ARCH model has been adopted in many applications that contain time series data such as financial market prices, options, commodity prices and the oil industry. In this paper, we propose an improved post-selection estimation strategy. We investigated and developed some asymptotic properties of the suggested strategies and compared with a benchmark estimator. Furthermore, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to reappraise the relative characteristics of the listed estimators. Our numerical results corroborate with the analytical work of the study. We applied the proposed methods on the S&P500 stock market daily closing prices index to illustrate the usefulness of the developed methodologies. Full article

We consider a risk-aware multi-armed bandit framework with the goal of avoiding catastrophic risk. Such a framework has multiple applications in financial risk management. We introduce a new conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) estimation procedure combining extreme value theory with automated threshold selection by ordered goodness-of-fit tests, and we apply this procedure to a pure exploration best-arm identification problem under a fixed budget. We empirically compare our results with the commonly used sample average estimator of the CVaR, and we show a significant performance improvement when the underlying arm distributions are heavy-tailed. Full article

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are vital contributors and significant drivers of any manufacturing sector. The Industry 4.0 (I 4.0) revolution has made the global economy highly competitive and automated, requiring Indian SMEs to adapt more quickly. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the barriers to implementing I 4.0, simplifying the complex interrelationship among such barriers with the help of a suitable model, categorizing them as independent and dependent ones, and, ultimately, leveling the same drivers, autonomous linkages, and dependent forces. The present investigation thoroughly examined the existing literature and summarized the list of barriers into fifteen significant barriers to the smooth establishment of Industry 4.0 in India. The identified barriers were analyzed with the help of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) Diagraph and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) analysis. This study was able to explore the interrelationship among these barriers. The study has found found a lack of support from stakeholders, and insufficient managerial support emerged as a major factor neglected by Indian SMEs. However, uncertainty in the predicted demand for products, the lack of an alternate solution to the technological breakdown, and doubt about the sustainability of Industry 4.0 (relating to its potential to lead to unemployment in society, etc.) are significant contingent barriers. These barriers can impact the other strategic choices related to the successful implementation of Industry 4.0. This study’s observations can help decision-makers make strategic decisions to manage the barriers affecting Industry 4.0 in Indian SMEs. This research revealed a scope that can be extended to other South Asian and developing nations. The results of the present work can be further studied with structural equation modeling (SEM) and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Full article

This study investigates the impact of investment efficiency on firm value with a moderating role of institutional ownership and board independence for companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The information from 177 companies in 2014–2021 was examined. Tobin’s Q is a common measure for firm value, and it is a market-based measure and provides a good tool of comparison. The results show that investment efficiency has an impact on firm value. In addition, institutional ownership and board independence moderate this impact. There is a gap between the impact of investment efficiency on firm value and the moderating role of institutional ownership and board independence. This gap creates an opportunity for carrying out in-depth research on those variables. Since the impact of investment efficiency on firm value emphasizing the role of institutional ownership and board independence has not been studied, the study’s findings can show the importance and necessity of this study and fill the gap in this field. Full article

This paper aims to investigate the effect of audit committee ethnicity, as part of the diverse cultures in Malaysia, on analysts’ forecast accuracy. In addition, this study investigates further the interactions between the unique cultures in Malaysia and earnings management to determine whether audit committee ethnicity still plays a role in earnings management. Based on 391 observations of firms followed by analysts from the year 2012 to 2014, our result indicates that firms dominated by Bumiputera audit committees have a higher analyst forecast error. In addition, we found that firms manage earnings to meet analysts’ forecasts, which is significant for firms dominated by Bumiputera audit committees. The results add new evidence on the effect of audit committee ethnicity on financial reporting quality in the multiracial country of Malaysia. Full article

Responding to the influences of climate change, on the one hand, and selected benefits of digital technology, on the other hand, an energy transition of global scale appears to be underway. Many observers project that a significant element of the energy transition will be a growing dependence on electricity, a dependence possibly doubling by 2050. Such a transformation, however, would likely require re-configuring the architecture of complex, centralized electricity grids, an artifact of a context of more than a century ago. In concert with the energy transition, we argue to modify the objective of the electricity grid to enable efficient, pervasive optimization in local service areas that provides incentives for users to be efficient in their energy use. At the core of our argument is the presentation of economic incentives denominated in an electricity-backed commodity currency such that incumbent electricity generators could augment their economic purpose of electricity production and electricity distribution to include financial intermediation. A direct consequence of this institutional transformation is the opportunity for all users to generate wealth. There are others who have been inspired to conjure ways that energy could be a candidate currency. Our argument is distinctive, though, in exploiting how an institution (the power grid system) could be repositioned and how all agents in the system could benefit by the institutionalization of electricity as money. Full article

In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises. Our results show that a low level of export growth, current account surplus/GDP, GDP growth, a high level of real exchange rate growth, import growth, and short-term debt/reserves can explain the advent of a possible currency crisis. We found that a poor law and order scenario and high external conflict can lead to a currency crisis. Additional findings include high government stability and the absence of internal conflict, which contribute to an absence of democracy, ultimately leading to a currency crisis. The policy-makers can consider taking the effective pre-emptive actions to prevent the currency crises occurring in the future. Full article

Understanding social behavior and explaining its implications is essential when examining consumer xenocentric behavior. This study evaluated the direct effects of consumer xenoncentrism on product attitude and purchase intention of imported products and analyzed the moderating impact of formal education on xenocentric consumer behavior considering groups with higher and low formal education levels. Structural equation modeling technique and multigroup analysis based on samples collected from Chilean consumers were used to analyze the research model. There were 295 effective online questionnaires (42.4% females and 57.6% males). This study’s findings suggest that consumer xenocentric effects are directly related to imported products’ product attitude (G: R² = 0.254; L: R² = 0.121; H: R² = 0.327) and purchase intention (G: R² = 0.454; L: R² = 0.469; H: R² = 0.365). In addition, findings exhibit that xenocentric consumer behaviors are more significant when associated with formal educational level (G: 0.575; L: 0.640; H: 0.443). Therefore, as education levels increase, the xenocentric effect also increases. An important application of these findings is that education in emerging countries and developing economies should strengthen local production valorization and promote marketing strategies that foster the sustainable consumption of products manufactured in their own countries. Full article

Focus on fair lending has become more intensified recently as bank and non-bank lenders apply artificial-intelligence (AI)-based credit determination approaches. The data analytics technique behind AI and machine learning (ML) has proven to be powerful in many application areas. However, ML can be less transparent and explainable than traditional regression models, which may raise unique questions about its compliance with fair lending laws. ML may also reduce potential for discrimination, by reducing discretionary and judgmental decisions. As financial institutions continue to explore ML applications in loan underwriting and pricing, the fair lending assessments typically led by compliance and legal functions will likely continue to evolve. In this paper, the author discusses unique considerations around ML in the existing fair lending risk assessment practice for underwriting and pricing models and proposes consideration of additional evaluations to be added in the present practice. Full article

This paper is the first (to our knowledge) to analytically model the optimal contracting for a member of the board of directors who holds multiple directorships. Prior literature has found conflicting evidence on the overall effect of multiple directorships on shareholder welfare: busy board members are usually detrimental to firm operating performance due to the limited time and effort they are able to devote to each board; however, multiple directorships can be beneficial to firms if the board members gain knowledge and expertise through their multiple appointments. The objective of our study is to expand the research on the effects of multiple directorships on shareholder welfare by modeling the relationship between optimal incentives (pay–performance sensitivity) and the number of directorships. Modeling within the Linear–Exponential–Normal framework, and solving using Subgame-Perfect Nash Equilibrium, we find that this relationship is positive when efforts across directorships are either substitutive or complementary, which highlights another potential significant downside to multiple directorships: companies need to offer high incentive-based pay to compete for directors’ efforts, leading to high-risk premia and welfare loss to shareholders. Our results may be of interest to policy makers considering setting limits on the number of board seats that may be held by directors at public companies, as well as shareholders considering appointing directors with multiple appointments. Full article

This research examines the concept of a robo-advisor with digital twin capabilities for personal financial management. Using an exploratory study, the researchers developed an interactive and interpretive model that analyses the most critical variables to consider when designing the next level of financial robo-advisor through integrating digital twin concepts and applications. Primarily, it conducts an assessment and then reviews the data to propose a model that can serve as a baseline for future research. Related literature was explored, including peer-reviewed journal articles, case studies, periodicals, newspaper articles, and books. This study aims to assess the concept of digital twin (DT) as the next frontier of robo-advisor as a new wave of intelligent financial advisors in supporting the personalisation and customisation of financial technology (FinTech) services and management. Individuals who use a DT-enabled robo-advisor may find a significantly greater value for their financial management and well-being. A robo-advisor with DT enabled will no longer be an ad hoc financial advisory service but will evolve into a comprehensive and dynamic financial advisory service for users. The research presents several critical insights on financial robo-advisory with DT capabilities, transforming and optimising smart financial advisory. Full article

We revisited the issue of return predictability in three major developed markets (USA, UK and Japan) using a unique dataset from the Wharton Research Data Services database and a comprehensive set of traditional and recent statistical methods. We specifically employed a variety of traditional linear and nonlinear tests, latest multiple-break unit root tests and spectral analysis to test the efficient market hypothesis. Our results show that these stock markets generally are inefficient. We further explored whether the departure from market efficiency can be used to generate profitable trades and found that abnormal returns exist in all three markets. We found evidence of abnormal returns associated with the break dates identified in the models which are correlated with major historical events around the world. Our findings have important implications for investors and policymakers. Full article

This study investigates intrahousehold risk preferences in household portfolio decision-making. Most household finance data are collected at the household level, and it is challenging to come up with an explanation of risk-taking decisions and have a direction on the within-household bargaining mechanisms. We provide these challenging pieces of evidence by applying a Tobit model on panel data taken from waves 2 to 6 of HILDA surveys. Overall, the results indicate that the risk-taking attitude of partners matters in household portfolio allocations. Risk-averse males and their female counterparts invest less in risky assets. Compared with the no-conflict (identical risk preferences) group, male partners with risk-loving behaviour tend to invest more in risky assets. Further, individual risk preferences are sensitive to fluctuations in equity and housing markets in Australia. Taken together, one of the crucial implications of our findings for future research is that household-bargaining models should, perhaps, give more bargaining power to risk-loving males, offering an additional explanation for the determinants of risk-taking behaviour of households. Understanding the risk-taking attitudes of households is important for future work to understand the fraction of households that end up with a negative net worth in recessions or crisis conditions, such as financial crises, pandemics, and wars. Full article

For three countries of similar economic characteristics, I ratify previous studies of the impact of fundamental macroeconomic and foreign exchange variables influencing country risk, as captured by the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI). I contribute to existing research, first by calculating a proxy of risk I call endogenous risk that analyzes the quarterly variability of economic activity, and second, by calculating a variable of sentiment from Twitter activity. I gauge the impact of both on the country risk metric in addition to variables in existing research about the determinants of country risk. Foreign exchange variables are the most significant determinants of risk for the countries of Colombia and Peru, which actively manage their currency, while Ecuador’s country risk is mostly affected by endogenous risk and macroeconomic fundamentals. Full article

Price discovery is an important research topic in real estate due to the heterogeneous nature of housing attributes and relatively thin trading activities compared to other assets. In Commonwealth countries, including New Zealand, governments usually conduct periodic appraisals for the purpose of collecting rates and levies. Such official appraisal values of properties, also known as capital values (CVs), are considered a price anchor for market participants in their negotiation processes. Real estate agents often use these appraisal values to advertise their listings and negotiate transaction prices. In this study, we aim to make an initial attempt to study the influence of CV on market prices using Granger causality tests and a hedonic pricing model. To test the lead-lag relationships, three million housing transactions from 1990 to 2020 in New Zealand are used to construct the capital values (CVs) and transacted prices (TPs) indices in both primary and secondary housing markets. The Granger causality test suggests that the indices of TPs and CVs have a bi-directional lead-lag relationship in the secondary housing market, whereas the relationship does not follow in the primary market where the information on CVs is unavailable. The results imply the existence of a CV anchoring effect. Such anchoring effects are also contingent on the timeliness of price anchors, which is consistent with the availability heuristic from behavioural economics. Full article

This study examines how the quality of public administration influenced local economic growth in Vietnam from 2011 to 2019. Based on previous studies, we evaluate this impact through the Cobb–Douglas function includes government capital, thereby examining both the individual and interactive effects of local government expenditures and quality of public administration on local economic growth in Vietnam. The system GMM method (SGMM) was used to estimate the model with data collected from 61 provinces and cities in Vietnam in the period 2011–2019. The findings suggest that local government expenditures and quality of public administration positively influence local economic growth in Vietnam. Thereby, the authors propose policy implications to improve the efficiency of local government expenditures on local economic growth in Vietnam in terms of public administration. Full article