Search Results (370)

The southeastern coastal region of China has long been affected by typhoon disasters, which pose significant threats to the safety of offshore structures. Therefore, predicting extreme wind speeds corresponding to various return periods on the basis of limited typhoon samples is particularly important for wind-resistant design. This study systematically predicts extreme typhoon wind speeds for various return periods and quantitatively assesses the sensitivity of key parameters by employing a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation framework integrated with a typhoon straight-line trajectory model and the Yan Meng wind field model. Focusing on Guangzhou (23.13° N, 113.28 °E), a representative coastal city in southeastern China, this research establishes a modular analytical framework that provides generalizable solutions for typhoon disaster assessment in coastal regions. The probabilistic wind load data generated by this framework significantly increases the cost-effectiveness and safety of wind-resistant structural design. Full article

Laizhou Bay, a semi-enclosed bay, is prone to storm surges from cold waves due to its geographic and environmental characteristics. This study uses satellite data, in situ measurements, and the MIKE numerical model to analyze storm surges along Laizhou Bay’s coast under no-dike conditions. It examines the surges caused by cold waves with different intensities and directions. This study provides the storm surge disaster risk levels along Laizhou Bay’s coast. The results show that the maximum sustained wind speed during cold waves is distributed between the NW and NE. The NE wind direction causes the most severe storm surge along Laizhou Bay. Under NE-directed cold waves with level 12 wind, the maximum risk areas for Level III and IV are approximately 1341 km² and 1294 km², respectively. Dongying, Shouguang, and Hanting exhibit large Level I and II risk zones. The maximum seawater intrusion distance along the Kenli coast is about 41 km. The coastal segment from Kenli to Changyi is most severely affected by storm surges. It is recommended to effectively maintain and heighten seawalls along this segment to mitigate storm surge disasters caused by strong NE winds. Full article

Accurate short-term weather forecasting plays a vital role in disaster response, agriculture, and energy management, where timely and reliable predictions are essential for decision-making. Graph neural networks (GNNs), known for their ability to model complex spatial structures and relational data, have achieved remarkable success in meteorological forecasting by effectively capturing spatial dependencies among distributed weather stations. However, most existing GNN-based approaches rely on pairwise station connections, limiting their capacity to represent higher-order spatial interactions. Moreover, their dependence on supervised learning makes them vulnerable to spatial heterogeneity and temporal non-stationarity. This paper introduces a novel spatial–temporal pretraining framework, Hypergraph-enhanced Meteorological Pretraining (HyMePre), which combines hypergraph neural networks with self-supervised learning to model high-order spatial dependencies and improve generalization across diverse climate regimes. HyMePre employs a two-stage masking strategy, applying spatial and temporal masking separately, to learn disentangled representations from unlabeled meteorological time series. During forecasting, dynamic hypergraphs group stations based on meteorological similarity, explicitly capturing high-order dependencies. Extensive experiments on large-scale reanalysis datasets show that HyMePre outperforms conventional GNN models in predicting temperature, humidity, and wind speed. The integration of pretraining and hypergraph modeling enhances robustness to noisy data and improves generalization to unseen climate patterns, offering a scalable and effective solution for operational weather forecasting. Full article

Historical districts are the mark of the continuity of urban history and are non-renewable. Typhoon disasters rank among the most serious and frequent natural threats to China’s coastal regions. Improving the wind resilience of China’s coastal historical districts is of great significance for their protection and inheritance. Accurately analyzing the different characteristics of the influencing factors of wind resilience in China’s coastal historical districts can provide a theoretical basis for alleviating the damage caused by typhoons and formulating disaster prevention measures. This paper accurately identifies the main influencing factors of wind resilience in China’s coastal historical districts and constructs an influencing factor system from four aspects: block level, building level, typhoon characteristics, and emergency management. An IIM model for the systematic analysis of influencing factors of wind resilience in China’s coastal historical districts based on the Improved Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (IDEMATEL), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Matrices Impacts Croises-Multiplication Appliance Classement (MICMAC) methods is established. This allows us to explore the mechanism of action of internal influencing factors of typhoon disasters and construct an influencing factor system, in order to propose prevention measures from the perspective of typhoon disaster characteristics and the overall perspective of China’s coastal historical districts. The results show that the driving force of a building’s windproof design in China’s coastal historical districts is low, but its dependence is strong; the driving forces of block morphology, typhoon level, and emergency plan are strong, but their dependence is low. A building’s windproof design is a direct influencing factor of the wind resilience of China’s coastal historical districts; block morphology, typhoon level, and emergency plan are the most fundamental and key influencing factors of the wind resilience of China’s coastal historical districts. Full article

Enhancing quadrotor control to improve both precision and responsiveness is essential for expanding their deployment in complex and dynamic environments. These aerial vehicles are widely used in applications, such as aerial mapping, delivery, disaster response, and defense, where maintaining stability and accuracy is critical, especially under external disturbances like wind. This paper makes three key contributions. First, it develops a nonlinear mathematical model of a quadrotor and designs a backstepping controller for trajectory tracking. Second, the controller’s parameters are optimized using three nature-inspired algorithms: Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and the Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA), enabling performance comparisons in terms of their tracking precision and control effort. Third, the robustness of the best-performing optimized controller is evaluated by applying wind disturbances at the simulation level, modeled as external forces acting along the x-axis and summed with the control input. The simulation results highlight the comparative efficiency of the optimization methods and demonstrate the robustness of the selected controller in maintaining stability and accuracy under wind-induced perturbations. Full article

Meiyu is a critical component of the summer rainy season over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) in China, and the Meiyu onset date (MOD), serving as a key indicator of Meiyu, has garnered substantial attention. This article demonstrates an in-phase relationship between MOD and the preceding spring Barents–Kara Seas ice concentration (BKSIC) during 1979–2023. Specifically, the loss of spring BKSIC promotes an earlier MOD. Further analysis indicates that decreased spring BKSIC reduces the reflection of shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing oceanic solar radiation absorption and warming sea surface temperature (SST) in spring. The warming SST persists into summer and induces significant deep warming in the BKS through enhanced upward longwave radiation. The BKS deep warming triggers a wave train propagating southeastward to the East Asia–Northwest Pacific region, leading to a strengthened East Asian Subtropical Jet and an intensified Western North Pacific Subtropical High in summer. Under these conditions, the transport of warm and humid airflows into the YHRB is enhanced, promoting convective instability through increased low-level warming and humidity, combined with enhanced wind shear, which jointly contribute to an earlier MOD. These results may advance the understanding of MOD variability and provide valuable information for disaster prevention and mitigation. Full article

Terrain conditions may significantly affect the near-ground-layer wind speed in coastal areas. In this research, wind tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) were performed to investigate the impact of topographic changes on the local wind field at coastal bridge sites. Considering the geographic information system (GIS) information of an offshore bridge site, a 1:1000 topographic model was constructed to conduct tests in the wind tunnel lab under different wind directions. The influences of terrain conditions on localized wind characteristics such as the wind speed and wind attack angle under different test conditions were obtained. The results show that the wind angle varied between −6° and 6° under different conditions. To more comprehensively show the radius of influence on the local terrain, a CFD simulation was conducted. To verify the results of the wind tunnel tests, the SST k-ω model was compared and selected for simulation in this research. The influence radius of localized wind characteristics was determined by CFD simulation. The results indicate that the original topography showed “reverse amplification” on the leeward side, resulting in complex wake flows. These results may provide a reference for the design of wind-resistant structures such as bridges and offshore wind turbines in coastal areas. Full article

Extreme events such as tropical cyclones frequently occur in coastal areas in China. With high wind speeds and rainfall during such extreme events, the vehicles on sea-crossing bridges may face severe instability problems. In this study, the dynamics of vehicles on a cross-sea bridge under the wind–rain coupling effect were analyzed based on field measurement data using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Wind field parameters of the coastal area in China were obtained using wind speed data from measurement towers. Based on CFD, the sliding grid method was applied to establish an aerodynamic analysis model of a container truck moving on a bridge under wind and rain conditions. The discrete phase model based on the Euler–Lagrange method was used to investigate the influence of rain and obtain the aerodynamic characteristics of the truck under the coupled wind and rain effects. Based on the computational analysis results, considering the turbulence intensity, the yaw angle peaks of the tractor and trailer increased by 5.2% and 3.8%, respectively, and the lateral displacement of the truck’s center of mass increased by 9.8%. Rainfall may cause the vehicle to have a higher response, resulting in a high risk of skidding. The results show that skidding occurs for the considered container truck when rainfall is at 9.8%. These results can provide parameters for traffic control strategies under such extreme climate events in coastal areas. Full article

Accurate real-time icing grid fields are critical for preventing ice-related disasters during winter and protecting property. These fields are essential for both mapping ice distribution and predicting icing using physical models combined with numerical weather prediction systems. However, developing precise real-time icing grids is challenging due to the uneven distribution of monitoring stations, data confidentiality restrictions, and the limitations of existing interpolation methods. In this study, we propose a new approach for constructing real-time icing grid fields using 1339 online terminal monitoring datasets provided by the China Southern Power Grid Research Institute Co., Ltd. (CSPGRI) during the winter of 2023. Our method integrates static geographic information, dynamic meteorological factors, and ice_kriging values derived from parameter-optimized Empirical Bayesian Kriging Interpolation (EBKI) to create a spatiotemporally matched, multi-source fused icing thickness grid dataset. We applied five machine learning algorithms—Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, Stacking, and Convolutional Neural Network Transformers (CNNT)—and evaluated their performance using six metrics: R, RMSE, CSI, MAR, FAR, and fbias, on both validation and testing sets. The stacking model performed best, achieving an R-value of 0.634 (0.893), RMSE of 3.424 mm (2.834 mm), CSI of 0.514 (0.774), MAR of 0.309 (0.091), FAR of 0.332 (0.161), and fbias of 1.034 (1.084), respectively, when comparing predicted icing values with actual measurements on pylons. Additionally, we employed the SHAP model to provide a physical interpretation of the stacking model, confirming the independence of selected features. Meteorological factors such as relative humidity (RH), 10 m wind speed (WS₁₀), 2 m temperature (T₂), and precipitation (PRE) demonstrated a range of positive and negative contributions consistent with the observed growth of icing. Thus, our multi-source remote-sensing data-fusion approach, combined with the stacking model, offers a highly accurate and interpretable solution for generating real-time icing grid fields. Full article

Exposure modeling plays a crucial role in disaster risk assessments by providing geospatial information about assets at risk and their characteristics. Detailed exposure data enhances the spatial representation of a rapidly changing environment, enabling decision-makers to develop effective policies for reducing disaster risk. This work proposes and demonstrates a methodology linking volunteered geographic information from OpenStreetMap (OSM), street-level imagery from Google Street View (GSV), and deep learning object detection models into the automated creation of exposure datasets for power grid transmission towers, assets particularly vulnerable to strong wind, and other perils. Specifically, the methodology is implemented through a start-to-end pipeline that starts from the locations of transmission towers derived from OSM data to obtain GSV images capturing the towers in a given region, based on which their relevant features for risk assessment purposes are determined using two families of object detection models, i.e., single-stage and two-stage detectors. Both models adopted herein, You Only Look Once version 5 (YOLOv5) and Detectron2, achieved high values of mean average precision (mAP) for the identification task (83.67% and 88.64%, respectively), while Detectron2 was found to outperform YOLOv5 for the classification task with a mAP of 64.89% against a 50.62% of the single-stage detector. When applied to a pilot study area in northern Portugal comprising approximately 5.800 towers, the two-stage detector also exhibited higher confidence in its detection on a larger part of the study area, highlighting the potential of the approach for large-scale exposure modeling of transmission towers. Full article

Historical districts face pressing disaster preparedness challenges due to their special spatial properties—risks compounded by static approaches that overlook dynamic fire–pedestrian interactions. This study employs an agent-based model (ABM) for fire simulations and AnyLogic pedestrian dynamics to address these gaps in Dukezong Ancient Town, Yunnan Province, China, considering diverse ignition points, seasonal temperatures, and wind conditions. Dynamic simulations of 16 scenarios reveal critical spatial impacts: within 30 min, ≥28% of streets became impassable, with central ignition points causing faster obstructions. Static models underestimate evacuation durations by up to 135%, neglecting early stage congestions and detours caused by high-temperature zones. Congestions are concentrated along main east–west arterial roads, worsening with longer warning distances. A mismatch between evacuation flows and shelter capacity is found. Thus, a three-stage interaction simplification is derived: localized detours (0–10 min), congestion-driven delays on critical roads (11–30 min), and prolonged structural damage afterward. This study challenges static approaches by highlighting the “fast alert-fast congestion” paradox, where rapid alerts overwhelm narrow pathways. Solutions prioritize multi-route guidance systems, optimized shelter access points, and real-time information dissemination to reduce bottlenecks without costly infrastructure changes. This study advances disaster modeling by bridging disaster development with dynamic evacuation, offering a replicable framework for similar environments. Full article

Enzyme-Induced Calcium Carbonate Precipitation (EICP) shows promise for desertification control. This study investigates the effects of solid-to-liquid ratio, calcium sources, Ca²⁺ concentration, temperature, enzyme-to-liquid ratio (ELR), and pH on the activity of soybean crude urease (SCU). Furthermore, the impact of EICP treatment cycles on the mechanical properties, compressive behavior, and wind erosion resistance of aeolian sand (AS) was systematically evaluated, with microstructural evolution and pore characteristics of cemented specimens analyzed through SEM and X-CT. Key findings reveal that SCU activity and the calcium carbonate precipitation rate (PR) reached optimal levels (80~99%) under conditions of a 1:10 solid-to-liquid ratio, 1.0~1.5 M CaCl₂ concentration, 35~70 °C temperature range, and pH 7. After seven EICP treatments, AS specimens exhibited complete cementation with an unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of 580 kPa and a reduced wind erosion rate of 0.151 g/min, effectively mitigating desertification. SEM and X-CT analyses confirmed significant pore infilling and bridging between particles, accompanied by a reduction in pore quantity and permeability coefficient by over two orders of magnitude. EICP demonstrates notable advantages in enhancing mechanical performance, environmental compatibility, and cost efficiency, positioning cemented AS as a viable construction material while offering insights for sand stabilization engineering. These findings provide essential technical support for material innovation, wind and sand disaster prevention, and the sustainable construction of desert highway bases and subbases. Full article

Tropical cyclone (TC) track clustering plays a crucial role in understanding cyclone movement patterns, which is essential for risk assessment and disaster preparedness. This study proposes an improved SD-K-Means clustering algorithm for classifying TC tracks. Using the best-track datasets of TCs from 2000 to 2022, provided by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), it explores the quantitative relationships between various TC features, such as latitude, longitude, and wind speed, and their motion speed and deflection angles. Based on these analyses, clustering indicators coupled with TC tracks and motion characteristics are identified. To evaluate the model’s performance, three clustering methods—standard K-Means, DTW (Dynamic Time Warping)-based K-Means, and DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise)—are compared using the Calinski–Harabasz (CH) index and the Davies–Bouldin Index (DBI) as evaluation metrics. The experimental results show that the SD-K-Means algorithm achieved high consistency across the majority of clustering indices, with the optimal number of clusters determined to be four. The spatial distribution of the clustering results demonstrates that SD-K-Means is effective in distinguishing different TC track patterns, providing valuable insights for regional disaster prevention and risk management efforts. Full article

Snowdrift, as a natural disaster, constantly compromises railway traffic by affecting how snow accumulates on the subgrade. This paper establishes a unified set of similarity criteria for wind tunnel testing, using viscous silica sand to simulate snow particles. By employing a geometric scale model (1:30) and similarity criteria (size, motion, dynamics, accumulation patterns, and time scales), it systematically investigates the evolution patterns of wind-induced snow accumulation on two types of roadbed structures: embankments and excavations. This study also evaluates the effectiveness of snow fences, proposing optimized placement distances and quantifying the effects of snow accumulation platform width. The results showed the following: (1) Snow on embankments has a “U”-shaped distribution, with the lowest wind speed (<0.5 m/s) and maximum accumulation at the leeward slope’s foot. In excavations, snow forms an “M”-shaped distribution, with significantly reduced wind speeds (<1 m/s) on the accumulation platform. (2) Snow fences effectively manage snow placement by lowering wind speed (below 1 m/s). A single-row snow fence with a porosity of 50% and a height of 3 m performs best when placed at seven times its height (7 H) from the slope’s toe. (3) A 5 m snow accumulation platform in excavations reduces surface snow accumulation (distribution coefficient drops to 1.6), outperforming scenarios without a platform (coefficient of 2.0). These findings contribute to the prevention and control of snowdrift disasters along railway lines in cold regions. They offer practical guidance for optimizing snow fence configurations, while also laying a foundation for future improvements in experimental accuracy through advanced techniques such as PIV and real-snow testing. Full article

Zhejiang Province in China is one of the most typhoon-prone regions globally, making typhoon and storm surge hazard analysis critically important for disaster mitigation. This study integrates the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) with a machine learning-based storm surge forecasting model to analyze typhoon hazards and storm surge risks at four representative coastal sites in Zhejiang Province: Haimen, Ruian, Wenzhou, and Zhapu. Firstly, the input database of the TCRM has been updated and subsequently used to generate a 1000-year synthetic typhoon event catalog for the Northwest Pacific region. Secondly, four machine learning models—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Back Propagation (BP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Random Forest (RF)—were developed to forecast storm surge component at the four sites, with sensitivity analysis conducted on the input parameters. Among the four models, RF consistently outperformed the others across all four sites. Thirdly, by integrating the storm surge forecasting model with the Yan Meng (YM) typhoon wind field model, extreme wind speed sequences and extreme surge component sequences were derived for the four coastal sites. Finally, four extreme value distribution models—empirical distribution, Weibull, Gumbel, and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD)—were applied to fit the extreme wind and surge sequences. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the GPD best captured extreme wind speeds at all four sites and extreme surge levels at Haimen, Ruian, and Wenzhou. Using the optimal distributions, return periods (10-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year) for extreme wind speeds and surge components were calculated, providing actionable references for disaster risk management authorities. Full article