Search Results (1,420)

High nighttime temperature (HNT) due to asymmetric diurnal warming threatens wheat productivity. This study evaluated the effect of HNT on wheat phenology, physiology, and yield through field and controlled environment experiments in Central Queensland, Australia. Two wheat genotypes, Faraday and AVT#6, were assessed under three sowing dates—1 May (Early), 15 June (Mid), and 1 August (Late)—within the recommended sowing window for the region. In a parallel growth chamber study, the plants were exposed to two nighttime temperature regimes, of 15 °C (normal) and 20 °C (high), with consistent daytime conditions from booting to maturity. Late sowing resulted in shortened vegetative growth and grain filling periods and increased exposure to HNT during the reproductive phase. This resulted in elevated floret sterility, lower grain weight, and up to 40% yield loss. AVT#6 exhibited greater sensitivity to HNT despite maturing earlier. Leaf gas exchange analysis revealed increased nighttime respiration (Rn) and reduced assimilation (A), resulting in higher Rn/A ratio for late-sown crops. The results from controlled environment chambers resembled trends of the field experiment, producing lower grain yield and biomass under HNT. Cumulative nighttime hours above 20 °C correlated more strongly with yield losses than daytime heat. These findings highlight the need for HNT-tolerant genotypes and optimized sowing schedules under future climate scenarios. Full article

In the past three decades, localized research has highlighted shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature trends in central Ethiopia, a region vital for agriculture and economic activities and heavily dependent on climate conditions to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. However, comprehensive analyses of long-term climate data remain limited for this area. Understanding local climate trends is essential for enhancing agricultural resilience in the study area, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for crop production. This study analyzes historical rainfall and temperature patterns over the past 30 years and projects future climate conditions using downscaled CMIP6 models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate spatial variability in rainfall trends, with certain areas showing increasing rainfall while others experience declines. Temperature has shown a consistent upward trend across all seasons, with more pronounced warming during the short rainy season (Belg). Climate projections suggest continued warming and moderate increases in annual rainfall, particularly under SSP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It is concluded that both temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in magnitude by 2080, with higher Sen’s slope values compared to earlier periods, indicating a continued upward trend. These findings highlight potential breaks in agricultural calendars, such as shifts in rainfall onset and cessation, shortened or extended growing seasons, and increased risk of temperature-induced stress. This study highlights the need for localized adaptation strategies to safeguard agriculture production and enhance resilience in the face of future climate variability. Full article

In response to the escalating climate crisis, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) has become a top priority for both the public and private sectors. The pavement industry plays a key role in this transition, offering innovative technologies that minimize environmental impacts without compromising performance. Among these, the incorporation of recycled tire rubber and warm-mix asphalt (WMA) additives represents a promising strategy to reduce energy consumption and resource depletion in road construction. This study conducts a comparative life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental performance of an asphalt pavement incorporating recycled rubber and a WMA additive—referred to as R-W asphalt—against a conventional hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement. The analysis follows the ISO 14040/44 standards, covering material production, transport, construction, and maintenance. Two service-life scenarios are considered: one assuming equivalent durability and another with a five-year extension for the R-W pavement. The results demonstrate environmental impact reductions of up to 57%, with average savings ranging from 32% to 52% across key impact categories such as climate change, land use, and resource use. These benefits are primarily attributed to lower production temperatures and extended maintenance intervals. The findings underscore the potential of R-W asphalt as a cleaner engineering solution aligned with circular economy principles and climate mitigation goals. Full article

As global climate change accelerates, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become increasingly pronounced, posing significant challenges to urban energy balance, atmospheric processes, and public health. This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale two CMIP6 scenarios—moderate forcing (SSP245) and high forcing (SSP585)—focusing on Zhengzhou, a rapidly urbanizing city in central China. High-resolution simulations captured fine-scale intra-urban temperature patterns and analyze the spatial and seasonal variations in UHI intensity in 2030 and 2060. The results demonstrated significant seasonal variations in UHI effects in Zhengzhou for both 2030 and 2060 under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, with the most pronounced warming in summer. Notably, under the SSP245 scenario, elevated autumn temperatures in suburban areas reduced the urban–rural temperature gradient, while intensified rural cooling during winter enhanced the UHI effect. These findings underscore the importance of integrating high-resolution climate modeling into urban planning and developing targeted adaptation strategies based on future UHI patterns to address climate challenges. Full article

This study uses life cycle analysis (LCA) to evaluate the environmental impacts of co-firing bituminous coal with agricultural biomass waste, such as coconut and rice husks, emphasising circular economy principles. Seven experimental scenarios with different coal-to-biomass ratios were designed, ranging from pure coal to pure biomass. The results show that Scenario B (100% rice husk) achieved the best overall environmental performance, with the lowest global warming potential (300 kg CO₂ equivalent), eutrophication potential (4.742 kg PO₄ equivalent), and smog formation potential (0.012 kg C₂H₄ equivalent). Additionally, Scenario F (15% biomass mix) recorded the lowest acidification potential (57.39 kg SO₂ eq), indicating that even partial substitution can yield significant environmental benefits. In contrast, Scenario C (100% coal) exhibited the highest acidification (164.08 kg SO₂ eq) and eutrophication (8.82 kg PO₄ eq) potential. Overall, the results demonstrate that co-firing biomass waste significantly reduces pollutant emissions compared to burning coal alone. This study highlights the effectiveness of biomass waste co-firing in mitigating environmental impacts, promoting resource recovery, and supporting a sustainable energy transition within a circular economy framework. Full article

This study investigates changes in Near-Surface Air Temperature (NSAT) over the South African region using weather station data, reanalysis products, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. It is shown that, based on ERA5 reanalysis, the average NSAT increase in the region (45–10° S, 0–50° E) for the period 1940–2023 was 0.11 ± 0.04 °C. Weak multi-decadal changes in NSAT were observed from 1940 to the mid-1970s, followed by a rapid warming trend starting in the mid-1970s. Weather station data generally confirm these results, although they exhibit considerable inter-station variability. An ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models also reproduces these multi-decadal NSAT change characteristics. Specifically, the average model-simulated NSAT values for the region increased by 0.63 ± 0.12 °C between the periods 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. Based on the results of the comparison between weather station observations, reanalysis, and models, we utilize projections of NSAT changes from the analyzed ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models until the end of the 21st century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. These projections indicate that the average NSAT of the South African region will increase between 1994–2023 and 2070–2099 by 0.92 ± 0.36 °C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, by 1.73 ± 0.44 °C under SSP2-4.5, by 2.52 ± 0.50 °C under SSP3-7.0, and by 3.17 ± 0.68 °C under SSP5-8.5. Between 1994–2023 and 2025–2054, the increase in average NSAT for the studied region, considering inter-model spread, will be 0.49–1.15 °C, depending on the SSP scenario. Furthermore, climate warming in South Africa, both in the next 30 years and by the end of the 21st century, is projected to occur according to all 33 CMIP6 models under all considered SSP scenarios. The main spatial feature of this warming is a more significant increase in NSAT over the landmass of the studied region compared to its surrounding waters, due to the stabilizing role of the ocean. Full article

As China’s first systematic assessment of high-risk Amaranthaceae invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive Amaranthaceae species (Dysphania ambrosioides, Celosia argentea, Amaranthus palmeri, and Amaranthus spinosus) are prioritized due to CNY 2.6 billion annual ecosystem damages in China. By coupling multi-species comparative analysis with a parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating climate, soil, and topographical variables in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126/245/585 scenarios, we reveal divergent expansion mechanisms (e.g., 247 km faster northward shift in A. palmeri than D. ambrosioides) that redefine invasion corridors in the North China Plain. Under current conditions, the suitable habitats of these species span from 92° E to 129° E and 18° N to 49° N, with high-risk zones concentrated in central and southern China, including the Yunnan–Guizhou–Sichuan region and the North China Plain. Temperature variables (Bio: Bioclimatic Variables; Bio6, Bio11) were the primary contributors based on permutation importance (e.g., Bio11 explained 56.4% for C. argentea), while altitude (e.g., 27.3% for A. palmeri) and UV-B (e.g., 16.2% for A. palmeri) exerted lower influence. Model validation confirmed high accuracy (mean area under the curve (AUC) > 0.86 and true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.6). By the 2090s, all species showed net habitat expansion overall, although D. ambrosioides exhibited net total contractions during mid-century under the SSP126/245 scenarios, C. argentea experienced reduced total suitability during the 2050s–2070s despite high-suitability growth, and A. palmeri and A. spinosus expanded significantly in both total and highly suitable habitat. All species shifted their distribution centroids northward, aligning with warming trends. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of temperature in driving range dynamics and underscore the need for latitude-specific monitoring strategies to mitigate invasion risks, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management under global climate change. Full article

Climate warming poses significant challenges for the sustainable management of natural water resources, making efficient planning and usage essential. This study evaluates the water requirements, irrigation demand, and rainfall deficits for two key vegetable crops, carrot and white cabbage, under projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period 2031–2100. The analysis was conducted for Kraków and Rzeszów Counties in southern Poland using projected monthly temperature and precipitation data from the Klimada 2.0 portal. Potential evapotranspiration (ETp) during the growing season (May–October) was estimated using Treder’s empirical model and the crop coefficient method adapted for Polish conditions. The reference period for comparison was 1951–2020. The results reveal a significant upward trend in water demand for both crops, with the highest increases under the RCP 8.5 scenario–seasonal ETp values reaching up to 517 mm for cabbage and 497 mm for carrot. Rainfall deficits are projected to intensify, especially during July and August, with greater shortages in Rzeszów County compared to Kraków County. Irrigation demand varies depending on soil type and drought severity, becoming critical in medium and very dry years. These findings underscore the necessity of adapting irrigation strategies and water resource management to ensure sustainable vegetable production under changing climate conditions. The data provide valuable guidance for farmers, advisors, and policymakers in planning effective irrigation infrastructure and optimizing water-use efficiency in southern Poland. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

In the past two decades, little information has been updated to understand the resource status of the crab species Ovalipes punctatus in the East China Sea Region. In this study, we conducted surveys in 2018 and 2019 to identify the seasonal spatial distribution patterns of the economically important sand crab Ovalipes punctatus (De Haan 1833) in the southern Yellow and East China Seas. In the study area, the largest biomass of crabs was observed in the fishing grounds of Dasha and the Yangtze River mouth, and the second largest biomass was detected in the Jiangwai-Zhouwai area. Seasonally, the total biomass order in these areas was summer > autumn & winter > spring, and the mean average individual weight order was spring & summer > winter > autumn. These findings provided maps of the seasonal spatial distribution pattern of the species across seasons, which were then used in climate-change scenario models. Model predictions suggested that O. punctatus might migrate northward and offshore under climate warming conditions, and that the climate scenario SSP585-2100 might be the most negative case, respectively, for the habitat area of gain% minus loss%. These data can be used to develop robust and systematic regional fisheries resource management policies that consider adaptation measures to address the impact of environmental and climate change along China’s coasts and other areas in the world. Full article

The effect of periodical heatwaves and related thermal stratification in freshwater aquatic ecosystems has been a hot research issue. A large dataset of samples was generated from samples exposed to temporary thermal stratification in mesocosms mimicking shallow eutrophic freshwater lakes. Temperature regimes were based on IPCC climate warming scenarios, enabling simulation of future warming conditions. Surface oxygen levels reached 19.37 mg/L, while bottom layers dropped to 0.07 mg/L during stratification. Analysis by FlowCAM revealed dominance of Cyanobacteria under ambient conditions (up to 99.2%), while Cryptophyta (up to 98.9%) and Chlorophyta (up to 99.9%) were predominant in the A2 and A2+50% climate scenarios, respectively. We identified temperature changes and shifts in nutrient concentrations, particularly phosphate, as critical factors in microbial community composition. Furthermore, five distinct Microcystis morphospecies identified by FlowCAM-based analysis were associated with different microbial clusters. The combined use of imaging flow cytometry, which differentiates phytoplankton based on morphological parameters, and nanopore long-read sequencing analysis has shed light into the dynamics of microbial communities associated with different Microcystis morphospecies. In our observations, a peak of algicidal bacteria abundance often coincides with or is followed by a decline in the Cyanobacteria. These findings highlight the importance of species-level classification in the analysis of complex ecosystem interactions and the dynamics of algal blooms in freshwater bodies in response to anthropogenic effects and climate change. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) crucially regulates water storage dynamics and is an essential component of the terrestrial water cycle. Understanding ET dynamics is fundamental for sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions facing increasing drought risks under climate change. In regions like southwestern China, where extreme drought events are prevalent due to complex terrain and climate warming, ET becomes a key factor in understanding water availability and drought dynamics. Using the SWAT model, this study investigates ET dynamics and influencing factors in the Jizi Basin, Yunnan Province, a small basin with over 71% forest coverage. The model calibration and validation results demonstrated a high degree of consistency with observed discharge data and ERA5, confirming its reliability. The results show that the annual average ET in the Jizi Basin is 573.96 mm, with significant seasonal variations. ET in summer typically ranges from 70 to 100 mm/month, while in winter, it drops to around 20 mm/month. Spring ET exhibits the highest variability, coinciding with the occurrence of extreme hydrological events such as droughts. The monthly anomalies of ET effectively reproduce the spring and early summer 2019 drought event. Notably, ET variation exhibits significant uncertainty under scenarios of +1 °C temperature and −20% precipitation. Furthermore, although land use changes had relatively small effects on overall ET, they played crucial roles in promoting groundwater recharge through enhanced percolation, especially forest cover. The study highlights that, in addition to climate and land use, soil moisture and groundwater conditions are vital in modulating ET and drought occurrence. The findings offer insights into the hydrological processes of small forested basins in southwestern China and provide important support for sustainable water resource management and effective climate adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of increasing drought vulnerability. Full article

Legume crops are sensitive to shifting environmental conditions, as they depend on a narrow range of climatic stability for growth and nitrogen fixation. This research sought to assess the sustainability of Faba Asturiana (FA) cultivation under current and future climatic scenarios by establishing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Specifically, it aimed to (1) investigate the effects of significant climatic stressors, including higher nighttime temperatures and extended drought periods, on crop viability, (2) analyze future scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and (3) recommend adaptive measures to mitigate threats. Six spatial GLMMs were developed, incorporating variables such as extreme temperatures, precipitation, and the drought duration. Under present-day conditions (1971–2000), all the models exhibited strong predictive performances (AUC: 0.840–0.887), with warm nights (tasminNa20) consistently showing a negative effect on suitability (coefficients: −0.58 to −1.16). Suitability projections under future climate scenarios revealed considerable variation among the developed models. Under RCP 4.5, Far Future, Model 1 projected a 7.9% increase in the mean suitability, while under RCP 8.5, Far Future, the same model showed a 78% decline. Models using extreme cold, drought, or precipitation as climatic stressors (e.g., Models 2–4) revealed the most significant suitability losses under RCP 8.5, with the reductions exceeding 90%. In contrast, comprising variables less affected by severe fluctuations, Model 6 showed relative stability in most of the developed scenarios. The model also produced the highest mean suitability (0.130 ± 0.207) in an extreme projective scenario. The results highlight that high night temperatures and prolonged drought periods are the most limiting factors for FA cultivation. ecological niche models (ENMs) performed well, with a mean AUC value of 0.991 (SD = 0.006) and a mean TSS of 0.963 (SD = 0.024). According to the modeling results, among the variables affecting the current distribution of Protected Geographical Indication-registered AF, prspellb1 (max consecutive dry days) had the highest effect of 28.3%. Applying advanced statistical analyses, this study provides important insights for policymakers and farmers, contributing to the long-term sustainability of PGI agroecosystems in a warming world. Full article

Renovating existing buildings is a key strategy for achieving the EU’s climate targets, as over 75% of the current building stock is energy inefficient. This study evaluates the environmental impacts of three façade renovation scenarios for an office building at the Technical University in Zvolen (Slovakia) using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. The aim is to quantify and compare these impacts based on material selection and its influence on sustainable construction. The analysis focuses on key environmental indicators, including global warming potential (GWP), abiotic depletion (ADE, ADF), ozone depletion (ODP), toxicity, acidification (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), and primary energy use (PERT, PENRT). The scenarios vary in the use of insulation materials (glass wool, wood fibre, mineral wool), façade finishes (cladding vs. render), and window types (aluminium vs. wood–aluminium). Uncertainty analysis identified GWP, AP, and ODP as robust decision-making categories, while toxicity-related results showed lower reliability. To support integrated and transparent comparison, a composite environmental index (CEI) was developed, aggregating characterisation, normalisation, and mass-based results into a single score. Scenario C–2, featuring an ETICS system with mineral wool insulation and wood–aluminium windows, achieved the lowest environmental impact across all categories. In contrast, scenarios with traditional cladding and aluminium windows showed significantly higher impacts, particularly in fossil fuel use and ecotoxicity. The findings underscore the decisive role of material selection in sustainable renovation and the need for a multi-criteria, context-sensitive approach aligned with architectural, functional, and regional priorities. Full article

Changes in habitat suitability are critical indicators of the ecological impacts of climate change. Syndiclis Hook. f., a rare and endangered genus endemic to montane limestone and cloud forest ecosystems in China, holds considerable ecological and economic value. However, knowledge of its current distribution and the key environmental factors influencing its habitat suitability remains limited. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model, integrated with geographic information systems (ArcGIS), to predict the potential distribution of Syndiclis under current and future climate scenarios, identify dominant bioclimatic drivers, and assess temporal and spatial shifts in habitat patterns. We also analyzed spatial displacement of habitat centroids to explore potential migration pathways. The model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.988), with current suitable habitats primarily located in Hainan, Taiwan, Southeastern Yunnan, and along the Yunnan–Guangxi border. Temperature seasonality (bio7) emerged as the most important predictor (67.00%), followed by precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 14.90%), while soil factors played a relatively minor role. Under future climate projections, Hainan and Taiwan are expected to serve as stable climatic refugia, whereas the overall suitable habitat area is projected to decline significantly. Combined with topographic constraints, population decline, and limited dispersal ability, these changes elevate the risk of extinction for Syndiclis in the wild. Landscape pattern analysis revealed increased habitat fragmentation under warming conditions, with only 4.08% of suitable areas currently under effective protection. We recommend prioritizing conservation efforts in regions with habitat contraction (e.g., Guangxi and Yunnan) and stable refugia (e.g., Hainan and Taiwan). Conservation strategies should integrate targeted in situ and ex situ actions, guided by dominant environmental variables and projected migration routes, to ensure the long-term persistence of Syndiclis populations and support evidence-based conservation planning. Full article