Search Results (1,036)

This study assesses the projected impacts of climate change on sediment retention and soil loss in Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR, through the application of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model. Using climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century (2050 and 2080), compared against a 2015 baseline, the analysis quantifies changes in sediment dynamics and ecosystem service provision. Results reveal a substantial increase in sediment retention, particularly in forested and flooded vegetation areas, under moderate and high-emission pathways. However, an overall rise in soil loss is observed across croplands and urbanized zones, driven by intensified high-risk areas, which requires conservative management. This study advocates for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies—including afforestation, intercropping, and riparian restoration—to enhance watershed resilience. These nature-based solutions align with national adaptation goals and offer co-benefits for biodiversity, climate regulation, and rural livelihoods. Full article

Over the past 30 years, the City of Portland, Oregon, USA, has emerged as a national leader in green stormwater infrastructure (GSI). The initial impetus for implementing sustainable stormwater infrastructure in Portland stemmed from concerns about flooding and water quality in the city’s two major rivers, the Columbia and the Willamette. Heavy rainfall often led to combined sewer overflows, significantly polluting these waterways. A partial solution was the construction of “The Big Pipe” project, a large-scale stormwater containment system designed to filter and regulate overflow. However, Portland has taken a more comprehensive and long-term approach by integrating sustainable stormwater management into urban planning. Over the past three decades, the city has successfully implemented GSI to mitigate these challenges. Low-impact development strategies, such as bioswales, green streets, and permeable surfaces, have been widely adopted in streetscapes, pathways, and parking areas, enhancing both environmental resilience and urban livability. This perspective highlights the history of the implementation of Portland’s GSI programs, current design and performance standards, and challenges and lessons learned throughout Portland’s recent history. Innovative approaches to managing runoff have not only improved stormwater control but also enhanced green spaces and contributed to the city’s overall climate resilience while addressing economic well-being and social equity. Portland’s success is a result of strong policy support, effective integration of green and gray infrastructure, and active community involvement. As climate change intensifies, cities need holistic, adaptive, and community-centered approaches to urban stormwater management. Portland’s experience offers valuable insights for cities seeking to expand their GSI amid growing concerns about climate resilience, equity, and aging infrastructure. Full article

Urban flooding has significantly impacted the livelihoods of households and communities worldwide. It highlights the urgency of focusing on both flood preparedness and adaptation strategies to understand the community’s perception and adaptive capacity. This study investigates the levels of risk perception, flood preparedness, and adaptive capacity, while also exploring the inter-relationships among these factors within the context of urban flooding in Malaysia. A quantitative approach was employed, involving a structured questionnaire administered to residents in flood-prone urban areas across Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A total of 212 responses were analysed using descriptive statistics, categorical index classification, and Spearman correlation analysis. The findings indicate that residents generally reported high levels of risk perception and preparedness, although adaptive capacity exhibited greater variability, with a mean score of 3.97 (SD = 0.64). Positive associations were found among risk perception, flood preparedness, and adaptive capacity. This study contributes to the existing knowledge by providing evidence on community resilience and highlighting key factors that can guide flood management policies and encourage adaptive planning at the community level. Full article

Effective flood management in agricultural fields has become increasingly important due to the rising frequency and intensity of rainfall events driven by climate change. This study investigates the applicability of urban flood analysis models—SWMM (1D) and K-Flood (2D)—to irrigated agricultural fields with artificial drainage systems. A case study was conducted in a rural area near the Sindae drainage station in Cheongju, South Korea, using rainfall data from an extreme weather event in 2017. The models simulated inland flooding and were validated against flood trace maps provided by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis showed a true positive rate of 0.565, a false positive rate of 0.21, and an overall accuracy of 0.731, indicating reasonable agreement with observed inundation. Scenario analyses were also conducted to assess the effectiveness of three improvement strategies: reducing the Manning coefficient, increasing pump station capacity, and widening drainage channels. Among them, increasing pump capacity most effectively reduced flood volume, while channel widening had the greatest impact on reducing flood extent. These findings demonstrate the potential of urban flood models for application in agricultural contexts and support data-driven planning for rural flood mitigation. Full article

Recent years have seen frequent heavy rainfall events in Japan, often linked to Baiu fronts and typhoons. These events are exacerbated by global warming, leading to an increased frequency and intensity. As floods represent a serious threat to sustainable urban development and community resilience, this study contributes to sustainability-focused risk reduction through integrated analysis. This study focuses on the 2 June 2023 heavy rain disaster in Toyohashi City, Japan, which caused extensive damage due to flooding from the Yagyu and Umeda Rivers. Using numerical models, this study accurately reproduces flooding patterns, revealing that high tides amplified the inundation area by 1.5 times at the Yagyu River. A resident questionnaire conducted in collaboration with Toyohashi City identifies key trends in evacuation behavior and disaster information usage. Traditional media such as TV remain dominant, but younger generations leverage electronic devices for disaster updates. These insights emphasize the need for targeted information dissemination and enhanced disaster preparedness strategies, including online materials and flexible training programs. The methods and findings presented in this study can inform local and regional governments in building adaptive disaster management policies, which contribute to a more sustainable society. Full article

Floods are natural hazards that have the greatest socioeconomic impact worldwide, given that 23% of the global population live in urban areas at risk of flooding. In this field of research, the analysis of flood risk has traditionally been studied based mainly on approaches specific to civil engineering such as hydraulics and hydrology. However, these patterns of approaching the problem in research seem to be changing in recent years. During the last few years, a growing trend has been observed towards the use of methodology-based approaches oriented towards urban planning and land use management. In this context, this study analyzes the evolution of these research patterns in the field by developing a bibliometric meta-analysis of 2694 scientific publications on this topic published in recent decades. Evaluating keyword co-occurrence using VOSviewer software version 1.6.20, we analyzed how phenomena such as climate change have modified the way of addressing the study of this problem, giving growing weight to the use of integrated approaches improving territorial planning or implementing adaptive strategies, as opposed to the more traditional vision of previous decades, which only focused on the construction of hydraulic infrastructures for flood control. Full article

Recent climate changes have led to an increase in flood intensity, often resulting in frequent levee overtopping, which causes significant human and property damage. High vulnerability to such breaches is expected in general, especially at river curves. This study aims to predict the occurrence of levee overtopping at these critical points and to suggest a curve, the levee overtopping risk curve, to assess overtopping probabilities. For this purpose, several dimensionless parameters, such as superelevation relative to levee height ($∆$y/H) and the channel’s Froude number, were examined. Based on dimensional analysis, a relationship was developed, and the levee overtopping curve was finally proposed. The accuracy of this curve was validated through numerical analysis using a selected levee case, which clearly distinguished between safe and risky conditions for levee overtopping. The curve is designed for immediate integration into the hydraulic design processes, providing engineers with a reliable method for optimizing levee design to mitigate overtopping risks. It also serves as a critical decision-making tool in flood risk management, particularly for urban planning and infrastructure development in areas prone to flooding. Full article

Flood susceptibility mapping is essential for urban planning and disaster risk management, especially in rapidly urbanizing areas exposed to extreme rainfall events. This study applies an integrated approach combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS), map algebra, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess flood-prone zones in Ananindeua, Pará, Brazil. Five geoenvironmental criteria—rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), slope, soil type, and drainage density—were selected and weighted using AHP to generate a composite flood susceptibility index. The results identified rainfall and slope as the most influential criteria, with both contributing to over 184 km² of high-susceptibility area. Spatial patterns showed that flood-prone zones are concentrated in flat urban areas with high drainage density and extensive impermeable surfaces. CHIRPS rainfall data were validated using Pearson’s correlation (r = 0.83) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS = 0.97), confirming the reliability of the precipitation input. The final susceptibility map, categorized into low, medium, and high classes, was validated using flood events derived from Sentinel-1 SAR data (2019–2025), of which 97.2% occurred in medium- or high-susceptibility zones. These findings demonstrate the model’s strong predictive performance and highlight the role of unplanned urban expansion, land cover changes, and inadequate drainage in increasing flood risk. Although specific to Ananindeua, the proposed methodology can be adapted to other urban areas in Brazil, provided local conditions and data availability are considered. Full article

Accurate rainfall quantile estimation is critical for urban flood management, particularly given the escalating climate change impacts. This study comprehensively compared at-site frequency analysis and regional frequency analysis for sub-hourly rainfall quantile estimation, using data from 27 sites across Seoul. The analysis focused on Seoul’s disaster prevention framework (30-year and 100-year return periods). Employing L-moment statistics and Monte Carlo simulations, the rainfall quantiles were estimated, the methodological performance was evaluated, and Seoul’s current disaster prevention standards were assessed. The analysis revealed significant spatio-temporal variability in Seoul’s precipitation, causing considerable uncertainty in individual site estimates. A performance evaluation, including the relative root mean square error and confidence interval, consistently showed regional frequency analysis superiority over at-site frequency analysis. While at-site frequency analysis demonstrated better performance only for short return periods (e.g., 2 years), regional frequency analysis exhibited a substantially lower relative root mean square error and significantly narrower confidence intervals for larger return periods (e.g., 10, 30, 100 years). This methodology reduced the average 95% confidence interval width by a factor of approximately 2.7 (26.98 mm versus 73.99 mm). This enhanced reliability stems from the information-pooling capabilities of regional frequency analysis, mitigating uncertainties due to limited record lengths and localized variabilities. Critically, regionally derived 100-year rainfall estimates consistently exceeded Seoul’s 100 mm disaster prevention threshold across most areas, suggesting that the current infrastructure may be substantially under-designed. The use of minute-scale data underscored its necessity for urban hydrological modeling, highlighting the inadequacy of conventional daily rainfall analyses. Full article

Flood risk governance has gained increasing attention as climate change and urbanization amplify flood risks. While much of the literature has focused on national and supranational governance frameworks, sectoral integration, and public participation, there remains a critical gap in understanding horizontal coordination within municipal administrations—particularly in medium-sized cities. This study examines how local governments coordinate flood risk management across different departments and administrative units, identifying key challenges and enabling factors. Using a case study of Mörfelden-Walldorf, a medium-sized city in southern Hesse, Germany, we analyze the internal governance dynamics shaping flood resilience. The research highlights institutional fragmentation, sectoral silos, and resource constraints as key barriers to effective coordination while also identifying mechanisms that facilitate cross-departmental collaboration. By integrating insights from the public administration literature with flood governance scholarship, this study contributes to a more nuanced understanding of local-level flood risk governance. The findings provide practical implications for enhancing municipal flood resilience through improved governance structures and coordination mechanisms. Full article

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as strategic alternatives and complements to grey infrastructure for addressing water-related challenges in the context of climate change, urbanization, and biodiversity decline. This article presents a critical, theory-informed review of the state of NbS implementation in European water management, drawing on a structured synthesis of empirical evidence from regional case studies and policy frameworks. The analysis found that while NbS are effective in reducing surface runoff, mitigating floods, and improving water quality under low- to moderate-intensity events, their performance remains uncertain under extreme climate scenarios. Key gaps identified include the lack of long-term monitoring data, limited assessment of NbS under future climate conditions, and weak integration into mainstream planning and financing systems. Existing evaluation frameworks are critiqued for treating NbS as static interventions, overlooking their ecological dynamics and temporal variability. In response, a dynamic, climate-resilient assessment model is proposed—grounded in systems thinking, backcasting, and participatory scenario planning—to evaluate NbS adaptively. Emerging innovations, such as hybrid green–grey infrastructure, adaptive governance models, and novel financing mechanisms, are highlighted as key enablers for scaling NbS. The article contributes to the scientific literature by bridging theoretical and empirical insights, offering region-specific findings and recommendations based on a comparative analysis across diverse European contexts. These findings provide conceptual and methodological tools to better design, evaluate, and scale NbS for transformative, equitable, and climate-resilient water governance. Full article

The city of Uvira, located in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is increasingly experiencing flood events with devastating impacts on human life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. This study evaluates flood susceptibility in Uvira using Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach. It integrates eight factors contributing to flood occurrence: distance from water bodies, elevation, slope, rainfall intensity, drainage density, soil type, topographic wetness index, and land use/land cover. The results indicate that proximity to water bodies, drainage density and slope are the most influential factors driving flood susceptibility in Uvira. Approximately 87.3% of the city’s land area is classified as having high to very high flood susceptibility, with the most affected zones concentrated along major rivers and the shoreline of Lake Tanganyika. The reliability of the AHP-derived weights is validated by a consistency ratio of 0.008, which falls below the acceptable threshold of 0.1. This research provides valuable insights to support urban planning and inform flood management strategies. Full article

The preservation and protection of historic urban centers in climate-sensitive coastal areas contributes to the promotion of culture as a driver and enabler of achieving temporal and spatial sustainability, as it is recognized that urban heritage is an integral part of the urban landscape, culture, and economy. The aim of this study was to enhance the resilience and protection of cultural heritage and historic urban centers (HUCs) in the coastal area of Kaštela, Croatia, by providing recommendations and action guidelines in response to climate change impacts, including rising temperatures, sea levels, storms, droughts, and flooding. Preserving HUCs is essential to maintain their cultural values, original structures, and appearance. Many ancient coastal Roman HUCs lie partially or entirely below mean sea level, while low-lying medieval castles, urban areas, and modern developments are increasingly at risk. Based on vulnerability assessments, targeted mitigation and adaptation measures were proposed to address HUC vulnerability sources. The Historical Urban Landscape Approach tool was used to transition and manage HUCs, linking past, present, and future hazard contexts to enable rational, comprehensive, and sustainable solutions. The effective protection of HUCs requires a deeper understanding of the evolution of urban development, climate dynamics, and the natural environments, including both tangible and intangible urban heritage elements. The “hazard-specific” vulnerability assessment framework, which incorporates hazard-relevant indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, was a practical tool for risk reduction. This method relies on analyzing the historical performance and physical characteristics of the system, without necessitating additional simulations of transformation processes. Full article

The integration of water resources, water environment, and water ecology (hereinafter “three-water”) is essential not only for addressing the current water crisis but also for achieving sustainable development. Chaohu Lake is an important water resource and ecological barrier in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, undertaking such functions as agricultural irrigation, urban water supply, and flood control and storage. Studying the performance of “three-water” in the Chaohu Lake Basin will help to understand the pollution mechanism and governance dilemma in the lake basin. It also provides practical experience and policy references for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yangtze River Basin. We used the DPSIR-TOPSIS model to analyze the performance of the river–lake system in the Chaohu Lake Basin and employed an obstacle model to identify factors influencing “three-water.” The results indicated that overall governance and performance of the “three-water” in the Chaohu Lake Basin exhibited an upward trend from 2011 to 2022. Specifically, the obstacle degree of driving force decreased by 19.6%, suggesting that economic development enhanced governance efforts. Conversely, the obstacle degree of pressure increased by 34.4%, indicating continued environmental stress. The obstacle degree of state fluctuated, showing a decrease of 13.2% followed by an increase of 3.8%, demonstrating variability in the effectiveness of water resource, environmental, and ecological management. Additionally, the obstacle degree of impact declined by 12.8%, implying the reduced efficacy of governmental measures in later stages. Response barriers decreased by 5.8%. Variations in the obstacle degree of response reflected differences in response capacities. Spatially, counties and districts at the origins of major rivers and their lake outlets showed lower performance levels in “three-water” management compared to other regions in the basin. Notably, Wuwei City and Feidong County exhibited better governance performance, while Feixi County and Chaohu City showed lower performance levels. Despite significant progress in water resource management, environmental improvement, and ecological restoration, further policy support and targeted countermeasures remain necessary. Counties and districts should pursue coordinated development, leverage the radiative influence of high-performing areas, deepen regional collaboration, and optimize, governance strategies to promote sustainable development. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article