Search Results (1,677)

To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and primary driving factors of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we employed an enhanced MODIS-PSN model. Utilizing the fifth-generation global climate reanalysis dataset (ECMWF ERA5), we generated GPP remote sensing products by integrating six natural factors. Through correlation analysis and geographical detector modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and key drivers of vegetation GPP across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2001 to 2022. The results demonstrate that GPP changes across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau display pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The humid northeastern and southeastern regions exhibit significantly positive change rates, primarily distributed across wetland and forest ecosystems, with a maximum mean annual change rate of 12.40 gC/m²/year. In contrast, the central and southern regions display a decreasing trend, with the minimum change rate reaching −1.61 gC/m²/year, predominantly concentrated in alpine grasslands and desert areas. Vegetation GPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau shows significant correlations with temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), evapotranspiration (ET), leaf area index (LAI), precipitation, and radiation. Among the factors analyzed, LAI demonstrates the strongest explanatory power for spatial variations in vegetation GPP across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The dominant factors influencing vegetation GPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are LAI, ET, and precipitation. The pairwise interactions between these factors exhibit linear enhancement effects, demonstrating synergistic multifactor interactions. This study systematically analyzed the response mechanisms and variations of vegetation GPP to multiple driving factors across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from a spatial heterogeneity perspective. The findings provide both a critical theoretical framework and practical insights for better understanding ecosystem response dynamics and drought conditions on the plateau. Full article

With the global economic restructuring and the consequent population mobility, urban shrinkage has become a common phenomenon. The Qinling–Daba Mountains, a zone with a key ecological function in China, have long experienced population decline and functional degradation. Clarifying the dynamics and influencing factors of urban shrinkage plays a vital role in supporting the sustainable development of the region. This study, using permanent resident population growth rates and nighttime light data, classified cities in the region into four spatial patterns: expansion–growth, intensive growth, expansion–shrinkage, and intensive shrinkage. It further examined the spatial characteristics of shrinkage across four periods (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020, and 2020–2022). A Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model was applied to examine core influencing factors and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicated the following: (1) The dominant pattern of urban shrinkage in the Qinling–Daba Mountains shifted from expansion–growth to expansion–shrinkage, highlighting the paradox of population decline alongside continued spatial expansion. (2) Three critical indicators significantly influenced urban shrinkage: the number of students enrolled in general secondary schools (X₅), the per capita disposable income of urban residents (X₇), and the number of commercial and residential service facilities (X₁₂), with their effects exhibiting significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Temporally, X₁₂ was the most influential factor in 2005 and 2010, while in 2015, 2020, and 2022, X₅ and X₇ became the dominant factors. Spatially, X₇ significantly affected both eastern and western areas; X₅’s influence was most pronounced in the west; and X₁₂ had the greatest impact in the east. This study explored the patterns and underlying drivers of urban shrinkage in underdeveloped areas, aiming to inform sustainable development practices in regions facing comparable challenges. Full article

The Sichuan Basin is a natural-gas-exploiting area with intensive agriculture activities. However, the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric methane concentration and the relationships with intensive agriculture and natural gas extraction activities are not well investigated. In this study, a long-term (2003–2021) dataset of column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of methane (XCH₄) over the Sichuan Basin and adjacent regions was built by integrating multi-satellite remote sensing data (SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, Sentinel-5P), which was calibrated using ground station data. The results show a strong correlation and consistency (R = 0.88) between the ground station and satellite observations. The atmospheric CH₄ concentration of the Sichuan Basin showed an overall higher level (around 20 ppb) than that of the whole of China and an increasing trend in the rates, from around 2.27 ppb to 10.44 ppb per year between 2003 and 2021. The atmospheric CH₄ concentration of the Sichuan Basin also exhibits clear seasonal changes (higher in the summer and autumn and lower in the winter and spring) with a clustered geographical distribution. Agricultural activities and natural gas extraction contribute significantly to atmospheric methane concentrations in the study area, which should be considered in carbon emission management. This study provides an effective way to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric CH₄ concentration and related factors at a regional scale with natural and human influences using multi-source satellite remote sensing data. Full article

To ensure water source security and sustainability of the national major strategic project “South-to-North Water Diversion”, this study aims to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the ecosystem service value (ESV) in its water source area from 2002 to 2022. This study reveals its changing trends and main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Quantitative assessment of the ESV of the region was carried out using the Equivalence Factor Method (EFM), aiming to provide scientific support for ecological protection and resource management decision-making. In the past 20 years, the ESV has shown an upward trend year by year, increasing by 96%. The regions with the highest ESV were Garzê Prefecture and Aba Prefecture, which increased by 130.3% and 60.6%, respectively. The ESV of Xinlong county, Danba county, Rangtang county, and Daofu county increased 4.8 times, 1.5 times, 12.5 times, and 8.9 times, respectively. In the last two decades, arable land has decreased by 91%, while the proportions of bare land and water have decreased by 84% and 91%, respectively. Grassland had the largest proportion. Forests and grasslands, vital for climate regulation, water cycle management, and biodiversity conservation, have expanded by 74% and 43%, respectively. It can be seen from Moran’s I index values that the dataset as a whole showed a slight positive spatial autocorrelation, which increased from −0.041396 to 0.046377. This study reveals the changing trends in ESV and the main influencing factors, and thereby provides scientific support for the ecological protection and management of the water source area. Full article

Understanding the carbon emission efficiency of apple production (APCEE) is critical for promoting green and low-carbon agricultural development. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of APCEE in China remain inadequately explored. This study employs life cycle assessment, super-efficiency slacks-based measures, and a panel Tobit model to evaluate the carbon footprint, APCEE, and its determinants in China’s two major production regions from 2003 to 2022. The results reveal that: (1) Producing one ton of apples in China results in 0.842 t CO₂e emissions. Land carbon intensity and total carbon emissions peaked in 2010 (28.69 t CO₂e/ha) and 2014 (6.52 × 10⁷ t CO₂e), respectively, exhibiting inverted U-shaped trends. Carbon emissions from various production areas show significant differences, with higher pressure on carbon emission reduction in the Loess Plateau region, especially in Gansu Province. (2) The APCEE in China exhibits a W-shaped trend (mean: 0.645), with overall low efficiency loss. The Bohai Bay region outperforms the Loess Plateau and national averages. (3) The structure of the apple industry, degree of agricultural mechanization, and green innovation positively influence APCEE, while the structure of apple cultivation, education level, and agricultural subsidies negatively impact it. Notably, green innovation and agricultural subsidies display lagged effects. Moreover, the drivers of APCEE differ significantly between the two major production regions. These findings provide actionable pathways for the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s apple industry, emphasizing the importance of spatially tailored green policies and technology-driven decarbonization strategies. Full article

As the world’s largest loess deposit region, the Loess Plateau’s vegetation dynamics are crucial for its regional water–heat balance and ecosystem functioning. Leaf Area Index (LAI) serves as a key indicator bridging canopy architecture and plant physiological activities. Existing studies have made significant advancements in simulating LAI, yet accurate LAI simulation remains challenging. To address this challenge and gain deeper insights into the environmental controls of LAI, this study aims to accurately simulate LAI in the Loess Plateau using deep learning models and to elucidate the spatiotemporal influence of soil moisture and temperature on LAI dynamics. For this purpose, we used three deep learning models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Interpretable Multivariable (IMV)-LSTM, to simulate LAI in the Loess Plateau, only using soil moisture and temperature as inputs. Results indicated that our approach outperformed traditional models and effectively captured LAI variations across different vegetation types. The attention analysis revealed that soil moisture mainly influenced LAI in the arid northwest and temperature was the predominant effect in the humid southeast. Seasonally, soil moisture was crucial in spring and summer, notably in grasslands and croplands, whereas temperature dominated in autumn and winter. Notably, forests had the longest temperature-sensitive periods. As LAI increased, soil moisture became more influential, and at peak LAI, both factors exerted varying controls on different vegetation types. These findings demonstrated the strength of deep learning for simulating vegetation–climate interactions and provided insights into hydrothermal regulation mechanisms in semiarid regions. Full article

The rapid urbanization process has accelerated the degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) in peri-urban rural areas of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), leading to increasing landscape ecological risks (LERs). Establishing a scientifically grounded landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) system and corresponding control strategies is therefore imperative. Using rural areas of Jiangning District, Nanjing as a case study, this research proposes an optimized dual-dimensional coupling assessment framework that integrates ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecological risk probability. The spatiotemporal evolution of LER in 2000, 2010, and 2020 and its key driving factors were further studied by using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geodetector methods. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land remained dominant, but its proportion decreased by 10.87%, while construction land increased by 26.52%, with minimal changes in other land use types. (2) The total ESV increased by CNY 1.67 × 10⁹, with regulating services accounting for over 82%, among which water bodies contributed the most. (3) LER showed an overall increasing trend, with medium- to highest-risk areas expanding by 55.37%, lowest-risk areas increasing by 10.10%, and lower-risk areas decreasing by 65.48%. (4) Key driving factors include landscape vulnerability, vegetation coverage, and ecological land connectivity, with the influence of distance to road becoming increasingly significant. This study reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LER in typical peri-urban villages. Based on the LERA results, combined with terrain features and ecological pressure intensity, the study area was divided into three ecological management zones: ecological conservation, ecological restoration, and ecological enhancement. Corresponding zoning strategies were proposed to guide rural ecological governance and support regional sustainable development. Full article

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

Refining the land use structure can boost land utilization efficiency and curtail regional carbon emissions. Nevertheless, prior research has predominantly concentrated on static linear planning analysis. It has failed to account for how future dynamic alterations in driving factors (such as GDP and population) affect simulation outcomes and how the land use spatial configuration impacts the attainment of the carbon-neutrality goal. In this research, 1 km spatial resolution LULC products were employed to meticulously simulate multiple land use scenarios across China at the national level from 2030 to 2060. This was performed by taking into account the dynamic changes in driving factors. Subsequently, an analysis was carried out on the low-carbon land use spatial structure required to reach the carbon-neutrality target. The findings are as follows: (1) When employing the PLUS (Patch—based Land Use Simulation) model to conduct simulations of various land use scenarios in China by taking into account the dynamic alterations in driving factors, a high degree of precision was attained across diverse scenarios. The sustainable development scenario demonstrated the best performance, with kappa, OA, and FoM values of 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. This implies that the simulation approach based on dynamic factors is highly suitable for national-scale applications. (2) The simulation accuracy of the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS (Systems for Geographical Modeling and Optimization, Simulation of Future Land Utilization) models was validated for six scenarios by extrapolating the trends of influencing factors. Moreover, a set of scenarios was added to each model as a control group without extrapolation. The present research demonstrated that projecting the trends of factors having an impact notably improved the simulation precision of both the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS models. When contrasted with the GeoSOS-FLUS model, the PLUS model attained superior simulation accuracy across all six scenarios. The highest precision indicators were observed in the sustainable development scenario, with kappa, OA, and FoM values reaching 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. The precise simulation method of the PLUS model, which considers the dynamic changes in influencing factors, is highly applicable at the national scale. (3) Under the sustainable development scenario, it is anticipated that China’s land use carbon emissions will reach their peak in 2030 and achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2060. Net carbon emissions are expected to decline by 14.36% compared to the 2020 levels. From the perspective of dynamic changes in influencing factors, the PLUS model was used to accurately simulate China’s future land use. Based on these simulations, multi-scenario predictions of future carbon emissions were made, and the results uncover the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. This study aims to offer a solid scientific basis for policy-making related to China’s low-carbon economy and high-quality development. It also intends to present Chinese solutions and key paths for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Full article

Gully erosion refers to the landform formed by soil and water loss through gully development, which is a critical manifestation of soil degradation. However, research on the spatio-temporal variations in erosion gullies at the county scale remains insufficient, particularly regarding changes in gully aggregation and their driving factors. This study utilized high-resolution remote sensing imagery, gully interpretation information, topographic data, meteorological records, vegetation coverage, soil texture, and land use datasets to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns and influencing factors of erosion gully evolution in Bin County, Heilongjiang Province of China, from 2012 to 2022. Kernel density evaluation (KDE) analysis was also employed to explore these dynamics. The results indicate that the gully number in Bin County has significantly increased over the past decade. Gully development involves not only headward erosion of gully heads but also lateral expansion of gully channels. Gully evolution is most pronounced in slope intervals. While gentle slopes and slope intervals host the highest density of gullies, the aspect does not significantly influence gully development. Vegetation coverage exhibits a clear threshold effect of 0.6 in inhibiting erosion gully formation. Additionally, cultivated areas contain the largest number of gullies and experience the most intense changes; gully aggregation in forested and grassland regions shows an upward trend; the central part of the black soil region has witnessed a marked decrease in gully aggregation; and meadow soil areas exhibit relatively stable spatio-temporal variations in gully distribution. These findings provide valuable data and decision-making support for soil erosion control and transformation efforts. Full article

Amid ongoing societal development, tourists’ travel behavior patterns have been undergoing substantial transformations, and understanding their evolution has emerged as a key area of scholarly interest. Taking Beijing as a case study, this research aims to uncover the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of tourist flows and their underlying driving mechanisms. Based on digital footprint relational data, a dual-perspective analytical framework—“tourist perception–tourist flow network”—is constructed. By integrating the center-of-gravity model, social network analysis, and regression models, the study systematically examines the dynamic spatial structure of tourist flows in Beijing from 2012 to 2024. The findings reveal that in the post-pandemic period, Beijing tourists place greater emphasis on the cultural connotation and experiential aspects of destinations. The gravitational center of tourist flows remains relatively stable, with core historical and cultural blocks retaining strong appeal, though a slight shift has occurred due to policy influences and emerging attractions. The evolution of the spatial network structure reveals that tourism flows have become more dispersed, while the influence of core scenic spots continues to intensify. Government policy orientation, tourism information retrieval, and the agglomeration of tourism resources significantly promote the structure of tourist flows, whereas the general level of tourism resources exerts no notable influence. These findings offer theoretical insights and practical guidance for the sustainable development and regional coordination of tourism in Beijing, and provide a valuable reference for the spatial restructuring of urban tourism in the post-COVID-19 era. Full article

The Inner Mongolia Plateau (IMP), situated in the arid and semi-arid ecological transition zone of northern China, is particularly vulnerable to both climate change and human activities. Understanding the spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and their driving forces is essential for regional ecological management. This study employs Sen’s slope estimation, BFAST analysis, residual trend method and Geodetector to analyze the spatial patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) variability and distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic influences. Key findings include the following: (1) From 1982 to 2022, vegetation cover across the IMP exhibited a significant greening trend. Zonal analysis showed that this spatial heterogeneity was strongly regulated by regional hydrothermal conditions, with varied responses across land cover types and pronounced recovery observed in high-altitude areas. (2) In the western arid regions, vegetation trends were unstable, often marked by interruptions and reversals, contrasting with the sustained greening observed in the eastern zones. (3) Vegetation growth was primarily temperature-driven in the eastern forested areas, precipitation-driven in the central grasslands, and severely limited in the western deserts due to warming-induced drought. (4) Human activities exerted dual effects: significant positive residual trends were observed in the Hetao Plain and southern Horqin Sandy Land, while widespread negative residuals emerged across the southern deserts and central grasslands. (5) Vegetation change was driven by climate and human factors, with recovery mainly due to climate improvement and degradation linked to their combined impact. These findings highlight the interactive mechanisms of climate change and human disturbance in regulating terrestrial vegetation dynamics, offering insights for sustainable development and ecosystem education in climate-sensitive systems. Full article

Snow serves as a crucial water source for vegetation growth on the Mongolian Plateau, and its temporal and spatial variations exert profound influences on terrestrial vegetation phenology. In recent years, global climate change has led to significant changes in snow and vegetation start of growing season (SOS). Therefore, it is necessary to study the mechanism of snow cover on vegetation growth and changes on the Mongolian Plateau. The study found that the spatial snow cover fraction (SCF) of the Mongolian Plateau ranged from 50% to 60%, and the snow melt date (SMD) ranged from day of the year (DOY) 88 to 220, mainly concentrated on the northwest Mongolian Plateau mountainous areas. Using different SOS methods to calculate the vegetation SOS distribution map. Vegetation SOS occurs earlier in the eastern part compared to the western part of the Mongolian Plateau. In this study, we assessed spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of snow on the Mongolian Plateau over the period from 2001 to 2023. The results showed that the SOS of the Mongolian Plateau was mainly concentrated on DOY 71-186. The Cox survival analysis model system established SCF and SMD on vegetation SOS. The SCF standard coefficient is 0.06, and the SMD standard coefficient is 0.02. The SOS_NDVI coefficient is −0.15, and the SOS_NDGI coefficient is −0.096. The results showed that the vegetation SOS process exhibited differential response characteristics to snow driving factors. These research results also highlight the important role of snow in vegetation phenology and emphasize the importance of incorporating the unique effects of vegetation SOS on the Mongolian Plateau. Full article

Given that the Sunkoshi River watershed (located in the southern foot of the Himalayas) is sensitive to climate change and its mountain ecosystem provides important services, we aim to evaluate its spatial and temporal variation patterns of vegetation, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), during 2000–2021 and identify the dominant driving factors of vegetation change. Based on the NDVI dataset (MOD13A1), we used the simple linear trend model, seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method, and Mann–Kendall test to investigate the spatiotemporal variation features of NDVI during 2000–2021 on multiple scales (annual, seasonal, monthly). We used the partial correlation coefficient (PCC) to quantify the response of the NDVI to land surface temperature (LST), precipitation, humidity, and soil moisture. The results indicate that the annual NDVI in 52.6% of the study area (with elevation of 1–3 km) increased significantly, while 0.9% of the study area (due to urbanization) degraded significantly during 2000–2021. Daytime LST dominates NDVI changes on spring, summer, and winter scales, while precipitation, soil moisture, and nighttime LST are the primary impact factors on annual NDVI changes. After removing the influence of soil moisture, the contributions of climate factors to NDVI change are enhanced. Precipitation shows a 3-month lag effect and a 5-month cumulative effect on the NDVI; both daytime LST and soil moisture have a 4-month lag effect on the NDVI; and humidity exhibits a 2-month cumulative effect on the NDVI. Overall, the study area turned green during 2000–2021. The dominant driving factors of NDVI change may vary on different time scales. The findings will be beneficial for climate change impact assessment on the regional eco-environment, and for integrated watershed management. Full article

Understanding the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of maize production and its determinants is critical to supporting China’s dual-carbon goals and advancing sustainable agriculture. This study employs a super-efficiency slack-based measure model (SBM) to evaluate the CEE of five major maize-producing regions in China from 2001 to 2022. Kernel density estimation and the Dagum Gini coefficient are used to analyze spatiotemporal disparities, while a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model explores the underlying drivers. Results indicate that the national average maize CEE was 0.86, exhibiting a “W-shaped” fluctuation with turning points in 2009 and 2016. From 2001 to 2015, the Southwestern Mountainous Region led with an average efficiency of 0.76. Post-2015, the Northern Spring Maize Region emerged as the most efficient area, reaching 0.90. Efficiency levels have generally become more concentrated across regions, though the Southern Hilly and Northwest Irrigated Regions showed higher volatility. Inter-regional differences were the primary source of overall CEE disparity, with an average annual contribution of 46.66%, largely driven by the efficiency gap between the Northwest Irrigated Region and other areas. Spatial heterogeneity was evident in the impact of key factors. Agricultural mechanization, cropping structure, and environmental regulation exhibited region-specific effects. Rural economic development and agricultural fiscal support were positively associated with CEE, while urbanization had a negative correlation. These findings provide a theoretical foundation and policy reference for region-specific emission reduction strategies and the green transition of maize production in China. Full article