Search Results (14)

This study assessed the vulnerability of canola, spring wheat, and barley yields in the Canadian Prairies to drought stress under future climate scenarios, integrating DSSAT crop models with NEX-GDDP CMIP6 projections and probabilistic copula analysis. The DSSAT simulations reproduced historical yields with high accuracy (d > 0.7, nRMSE < 15–20%), confirming its applicability for Prairie agroecosystems. Results indicate distinct crop-specific sensitivities to warming: barley showed relative resilience with modest yield gains (~10%) at 1.5–2 °C of global warming (GW), wheat exhibited heterogeneous responses with early minor gains (~1%) followed by declines (~8%) beyond 3 °C of GW, and canola displayed consistent and substantial losses (20–37%) even under moderate warming. Spatial analysis highlighted relatively stable regions in northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba (Gray and Black soil zones), while the southern and southwestern Prairie areas (Brown and Black-Brown zones) showed the greatest yield declines. Copula-based analysis further revealed that canola is most vulnerable to dry conditions, with yield exceedance probabilities falling from 62% (wet years) to ~25–28% (dry years) under GW. These findings underscore that Prairie crop production faces increasingly heterogeneous risks, with canola emerging as the most climate-sensitive crop. Targeted adaptation strategies such as stress-tolerant cultivars, shifting cropping zones, and improved water management will be essential to mitigate projected drought impacts and sustain Prairie agricultural productivity. Full article

Reducing CO₂ emission from fossil fuels is crucial for the global aim of constraining greenhouse gas release into the atmosphere and the consequent adverse impact of the rising global temperature. One prominent approach for reducing the CO₂ influx concerns capturing and storing CO₂ in subterranean reservoirs. The properties of deep subsurface reservoirs that are appropriate for storing gasses require extensive scrutiny, including (i) the assessment of their reservoir characteristics, (ii) examinations of the nature of the caprock, and (iii) continuous monitoring of the movement of injected gas plumes. The sedimentary strata of Saskatchewan contains a number of reservoirs that are potentially good for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The Late Ordovician Winnipeg Formation in Southern Saskatchewan constitutes a lower highly porous sandstone unit of the Black Island Member. Volumetric calculations of the Storage Space Capacity Potential of the sandstone indicate a subterraneous 974 km³ pore space. The porous sandstone unit is capped by a shale unit (Icebox Member). Thus, juxtaposition of these two lithologies makes the formation an excellent candidate for CCS. Full article

In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have escalated, posing unprecedented challenges to ecosystems, economies, and human health. As global temperatures rise, these events are emerging as critical threats; therefore, understanding their changes is essential for developing strategies to mitigate their growing risks under global warming. In this study, we used ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring, and Indices) temperature indices to analyze future changes in extreme temperature events in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed (SSRW) in Southern Alberta, Canada, a critical area for irrigation, agriculture, and food production. This analysis is based on an ensemble of 26 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, in three periods (2015–2030, 2041–2060, 2071–2100), compared against the base period of 1951–1990. The results suggest substantial changes in most of the studied indices towards higher temperatures, with a significant rise in both the numbers of days with extreme temperatures and the magnitude of the temperature itself, as well as a notable drop in the number of cold days. As a result of warming, the growing season length is 16 days longer in 2015–2030 compared to the base period and is projected to increase substantially by the end of the century. A longer growing season might seem favourable for agriculture, but it can disrupt water availability and cause unpleasant environmental consequences. Overall, the scenarios considered in this research suggest that the SSRW could experience warming at a significant rate. This finding underscores the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation actions to enhance resilience and sustainability. Full article

Climate change has a potentially significant influence on agricultural production in southern Saskatchewan. Crop yields are susceptible to weather patterns and seasonal fluctuations in this sub-humid region owing to the predominance of rain-fed farming practices. A modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-M) and the output from 10 high-resolution (0.22°) regional climate models (RCMs) were used to develop simulations of spring wheat and rain-fed canola in 296 rural municipalities (RM) for a historical baseline period (1975–2004) and three 30-year future periods: near (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and far (2070–2099). We combined SWAT-M with the S-curve method to adjust yield to the original drought stress in the source code and evaluated eight indices of extreme precipitation and temperature. Results of calibration and validation suggest that the simulated crop yields generally agree with observed data. Crop yield showed lesser performance compared with streamflow and soil water content (SWC) along with percent bias, ranging from −9.6% to −14.8%, while streamflow calibration ranges from −5.3% to −7.7%. The multi-model ensemble median showed increasing radiative forcing in the temperature and precipitation indices, such that the RCM-projected weather indices were found to be warmer and wetter than those estimated using regional historical data. The results of simulating canola and spring wheat indicate an increase in crop yield of 17% and 9.7% in the near future, 28.2% and 15.6% in the middle future, and 44.7% and 32% in the far future, respectively. Although, there has been an increase in the median wheat and canola yields, a significant reduction in the annual production is observed. This decline in yield amounts to around 1000 kg/ha and is anticipated to occur in the near and middle future. This trend is quite pronounced in the extreme south and southwest regions. Overall, this innovative research framework, along with the region-specific model outcomes in the form of crop yield projections, will aid in the formulation of future agricultural policies aimed at promoting effective climate adaptation strategies. Full article

Accurate measurement of solid precipitation ($\mathrm{S}$) has a critical importance for proper understanding of the Earth’s hydrological cycle, validation of emerging technologies and weather prediction models, and developing parameterizations of severe weather elements such as visibility ($\mathrm{V}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{s}$). However, measuring $\mathrm{S}$ is still a challenging problem, due mainly to wind effects. The wind effects are normally mitigated by using a Double-Fence Automated Reference (DFAR) system to reduce the wind speed (${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$). To contribute towards addressing some of these problems, we have analyzed datasets collected at two sites, Center for Atmospheric Research Experiments (CARE) and Bratt’s Lake, located in southern Ontario and southern Saskatchewan, Canada, respectively, using several instruments. The instruments at CARE include two Geonor gauges, one placed inside a DFAR (${\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{D}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}})$ and the other inside a double Alter shield ($\mathrm{D}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{G}}$), a Pluvio2 gauge inside a single Alter shield ($\mathrm{S}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{P}}$), a HotPlate, a PARSIVEL2 disdrometer that measures S and fall velocity ($\mathrm{V}$), and an FD12P senor that measures S and type and Vis. The instruments deployed in Bratt’s Lake includes a similar DFAR system and DAS Pluvio2 gauge. The results show that for the ${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$ observed in this study (${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$ < 6 ms⁻¹), both $\mathrm{D}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{G}}$ and $\mathrm{S}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{P}}$ have similar collection efficiency (CE) of near 70%. The transfer functions (TF) for $\mathrm{D}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{G}}$ and $\mathrm{S}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{P}}$ as a function of ${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$ and also ${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$, and $\mathrm{V}$ were derived. The TF developed for the $\mathrm{D}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{G}}$ that includes both ${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$ and $\mathrm{V}$ showed better agreement with observation than just ${\mathrm{U}}_{\mathrm{g}}$ alone. The TF developed for $\mathrm{D}\mathrm{A}{\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{G}}$ at CARE site was tested using the data collected in Bratt’s Lake and correlated well (R = 0.86), but slightly overestimated the S accumulation by about 12%. The S measured at CARE site using all the other instruments were correlated well with${\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{D}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}}$ (R = 0.9), but the PARSIVEL2 and FD12P overestimated and underestimated the snow amount, respectively, as compared the ${\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{D}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}}$. However, the HotPlate captured similar amount of $\mathrm{S}$ as the ${\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{D}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}}$. According to this study, the ${\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{D}\mathrm{F}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R}}$ showed good correlation with Vis. Full article

Climate change has amplified the severity of droughts with potentially adverse impacts on agriculture in western Canada. This study assessed meteorological and agricultural drought in the Southern Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) using an array of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), and the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI). These indices were evaluated using multiple regional climate model (RCM) projections assuming 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0 °C thresholds of global warming. A modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-M) was used to simulate the soil water content (SWC), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and potential evapotranspiration. The results of a sensitivity analysis using the SUFI-2 method in SWAT-CUP showed that the model performed well with BIAS lower than 10% and NSE and R higher than 0.7, and the range of SWC output closely matched the observed SWC. According to the RCM projections, the annual precipitation increases for all three global temperature thresholds while the annual mean temperature increases at a greater rate than the rise in global mean temperature. The projected PDSI and the SPEI suggest that drought duration and severity will exceed historical values while SPI will remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, severe drought conditions (SMDI < 2.0) are more frequent under the 3.0 °C global temperature scenario. The mean ETDI was historically 0.58 while the projected value is 0.2, 0.1, and −0.2 for the first to third scenarios, respectively. Simulated values, spatial maps, and heat maps of SMDI and ETDI illustrated that Canesm2.CRCM5 projects the driest conditions among all the RCMs. Agricultural drought indices, which incorporate SWC data, show more significant effects than meteorological drought indices. The increasing dryness will potentially impact agricultural crop production, particularly under the third scenario (3 °C) in the SSRB. Full article

The main objective of this research was to understand the effects of climate change on soil water content (SWC) across the Qu’Appelle River basin in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and output from 11 high-resolution (0.22°) regional climate models (RCM) were used over three 30-year periods: the near future (2021–2050) and distant future (2051–2080) and the historical reference (1975–2005). The RCM data are from the CORDEX North American domain, which employs the RCP8.5 high-emission scenario. SWC was modeled at the hydrological response units (HRU) level and at daily and monthly (warm season only) intervals for 2015–2020. The model was calibrated and validated using SUFI-2 in SWAT-CUP based on observations for streamflow and SWC, including measured data and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 for surface (up to 5 cm deep) soil moisture. Values of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NS) ranged from 0.616 and 0.784 and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.8 for calibration and 0.82 for validation. Likewise, the correlation coefficients between ground measurements and SWAT were 0.698 and 0.633, respectively. Future climate forcing of the calibrated SWAT model revealed that warmer and drier growing seasons will prevail in the region. Similarly, the ensemble of all RCMs indicated that the mean temperature will increase by 2.1 °C and 3.4 °C for the middle and late periods, respectively, along with a precipitation increase of 10% and 11.2%. SWC is expected to decrease with an increase in potential evapotranspiration, despite an increase in precipitation. Likewise, the annual SWC is expected to decrease by 3.6% and 4% in the middle and late periods, respectively. The monthly SWC changes showed the highest decreases (5.4%) in April in the late period. The spatial pattern of SWC for 11 RCMs was similar such that the northwest and west of the river basin are wetter than the south and east. SWC projections suggest that southern Saskatchewan could experience significant SWC deficiencies in the summer by the end of this century. Full article

Soil water content (SWC) is one of the most important hydrologic variables; it plays a decisive role in the control of various land surface processes. We simulated SWC using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in southern Saskatchewan. SWC was calibrated using measured data and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 for the surface (0–5 cm) SWC for hydrological response units (HRU) at daily and monthly (warm season) intervals for the years 2015 to 2020. We used the SUFI-2 technique in SWAT-CUP, and observed daily instrumented streamflow records, for calibration (1995 to 2004) and validation (2005–2010). The results reveal that the SWAT model performs well with a monthly PBIAS < 10% and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and R² ≥ 0.8 for calibration and validation. The correlation coefficient between ground measurement with SMAP and SWAT products are 0.698 and 0.633, respectively. Moreover, SMAP data of surface SWC coincides well with measurements in terms of both amount and trend compared with the SWAT product. The highest r value occurred in July when the mean r value in SWAT and SMAP were 0.87 to 0.84, and then in June for r value of 0.75. In contrast, the lowest values were in April and May (0.07 and 0.04, respectively) at the beginning of the growing season in southern Saskatchewan. Furthermore, calibration in the SWAT model is based on a batch form whereby parameters are adjusted to corresponding input by modifying simulations with observations. SWAT underestimates the abrupt increase in streamflow during the snowmelt months (April and May). This study achieved the objective of developing a SWAT model that simulates SWC in a prairie watershed, and, therefore, can be used in a subsequent phase of research to estimate future soil moisture conditions under projected climate changes. Full article

We summarize the feasibility of using geothermal energy from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to support communities with populations >3000 people, including those in northeastern British Columbia, southwestern part of Northwest Territories (NWT), southern Saskatchewan, and southeastern Manitoba, along with previously studied communities in Alberta. The geothermal energy potential of the WCSB is largely determined by the basin’s geometry; the sediments start at 0 m thickness adjacent to the Canadian shield in the east and thicken to >6 km to the west, and over 3 km in the Williston sub-basin to the south. Direct heat use is most promising in the western and southern parts of the WCSB where sediment thickness exceeds 2–3 km. Geothermal potential is also dependent on the local geothermal gradient. Aquifers suitable for heating systems occur in western-northwestern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and southwestern Saskatchewan. Electrical power production is limited to the deepest parts of the WCSB, where aquifers >120 °C and fluid production rates >80 kg/s occur (southwestern Northwest Territories, northwestern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, and southeastern Saskatchewan. For the western regions with the thickest sediments, the foreland basin east of the Rocky Mountains, estimates indicate that geothermal power up to 2 MW_el. (electrical), and up to 10 times higher for heating in MW_th. (thermal), are possible. Full article

Kochia (Kochia scoparia) and wild oat (Avena fatua) are highly problematic western Canadian weeds. Wild oat is widely distributed and has been a long-standing agricultural pest across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. Kochia populations are patchy and occur more frequently within the southern regions of the Prairie provinces. Kochia is exhibiting an ever-evolving, aggressive, herbicide resistance survival strategy which may facilitate range expansion. The experimental objective was to study the interspecific and intraspecific interference between wild oat and kochia. The study was developed with the context of kochia tumbleweeds travelling and depositing seed within wild oat infestations. Greenhouse experiments were conducted in Saskatoon, SK. The experimental design was a two factor factorial arranged as a randomized complete block. The main factors were kochia and wild oat pot density at either 0, 1, or 2 plants per pot. Treatment combinations resulted in species ratios of 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, and 2:2, with single species controls. Kochia biomass was reduced by >70% after 3 months of competition with a single wild oat plant. Wild oat biomass was consistently impacted by intraspecific competition, demonstrating a 25 to 50% reduction at the trial end. Kochia interspecific interference with wild oat at a 2:1 ratio did reduce wild oat biomass by 50% but this trend was not consistent across experimental runs. Kochia dispersal through wild oat infestations should induce competitive stress when crop competition is considered. Three-species interference patterns to include western Canadian crops require additional study. Full article

Groundwater drinking water supply surveillance data were accessed to summarize water quality delivered as public and private water supplies in southern Saskatchewan as part of an exposure assessment for epidemiologic analyses of associations between water quality and type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Arsenic in drinking water has been linked to a variety of chronic diseases and previous studies have identified multiple wells with arsenic above the drinking water standard of 0.01 mg/L; therefore, arsenic concentrations were of specific interest. Principal components analysis was applied to obtain principal component (PC) scores to summarize mixtures of correlated parameters identified as health standards and those identified as aesthetic objectives in the Saskatchewan Drinking Water Quality Standards and Objective. Ordinary, universal, and empirical Bayesian kriging were used to interpolate arsenic concentrations and PC scores in southern Saskatchewan, and the results were compared. Empirical Bayesian kriging performed best across all analyses, based on having the greatest number of variables for which the root mean square error was lowest. While all of the kriging methods appeared to underestimate high values of arsenic and PC scores, empirical Bayesian kriging was chosen to summarize large scale geographic trends in groundwater-sourced drinking water quality and assess exposure to mixtures of trace metals and ions. Full article

Flows along the upper Qu’Appelle River are expected to increase in the future via increased discharge from Lake Diefenbaker to meet the demands of increased agricultural and industrial activity and population growth in southern Saskatchewan. This increased discharge and increased air temperature due to climate change are both expected to have an impact on the water quality of the river. The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP7) was used to model current and future water quality of the upper Qu’Appelle River. The model was calibrated and validated to characterize the current state of the water quality of the river. The model was then used to predict water quality [nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations and oxygen dynamics] for the years 2050–2055 and 2080–2085. The modelling results indicate that global warming will result in a decrease in ice thickness, a shorter ice cover period, and decreased nutrient concentrations in 2050 or 2080 relative to 2010, with a greater decrease of nutrient concentrations in open water. In contrast to the effect of warmer water temperatures, increased flow through water management may cause increases in ammonium, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen concentrations and decreases in orthophosphate concentrations in summer. Full article

The River Darter (Percina shumardi) is a native, rarely sampled fish that has been detected in relatively small numbers since the 1930s. It has a wide North American distribution, but little is known about the species biology and distribution across the Canadian portion of its range. We revisited many historic sampling locations and sampled additional areas to (i) confirm and update the distribution of River Darters in Canadian waters; (ii) assess relative abundance; (iii) update life history characteristics; (iv) collect diet information; and (v) identify characteristics of River Darter habitat. Since 1990, a total of 1032 River Darters were recorded from 29 waterbodies across three ecoregions. River Darters were observed in relatively high abundances in both the Saskatchewan-Nelson River and Southern Hudson Bay-James Bay ecoregions. While still extant in the Great Lakes-Upper St. Lawrence ecoregion, River Darters persist at low abundance. Life history analyses indicate similar maximum age (age 4) and growth (10 mm/year) to conspecific populations in the United States, while sex ratios are generally skewed towards female dominance. River Darter populations had high flexibility in habitat use and diet, using a range of flows and depths and a variety of seasonally available prey types. Full article

Recent research in range ecology has emphasized the importance of forage quality as a key indicator of rangeland condition. However, we lack tools to evaluate forage quality at scales appropriate for management. Using canopy reflectance data to measure forage quality has been conducted at both laboratory and field levels separately, but little work has been conducted to evaluate these methods simultaneously. The objective of this study is to find a reliable way of assessing grassland quality through measuring forage chemistry with reflectance. We studied a mixed grass ecosystem in Grasslands National Park of Canada and surrounding pastures, located in southern Saskatchewan. Spectral reflectance was collected at both in-situ field level and in the laboratory. Vegetation samples were collected at each site, sorted into the green grass portion, and then sent to a chemical company for measuring forage quality variables, including protein, lignin, ash, moisture at 135 ºC, Neutral Detergent Fiber (NDF), Acid Detergent Fiber (ADF), Total Digestible, Digestible Energy, Net Energy for Lactation, Net Energy for Maintenance, and Net Energy for Gain. Reflectance data were processed with the first derivative transformation and continuum removal method. Correlation analysis was conducted on spectral and forage quality variables. A regression model was further built to investigate the possibility of using canopy spectral measurements to predict the grassland quality. Results indicated that field level prediction of protein of mixed grass species was possible (r² = 0.63). However, the relationship between canopy reflectance and the other forage quality variables was not strong. Full article